GER40 pushing higherWe can see price pushing higher with clear bullish momentum.
After that strong impulsive leg, price is now testing a key resistance zone.
But this time, the move into it looks different: stronger, cleaner and with bigger candles, showing conviction from buyers.
So, I’d expect a break followed by a minor pullback into the zone before continuation higher.
And if buyers will manage to hold this level as support, the next upside target would be around 24,665.
Trade ideas
DAX – Clean Supply Retest + Absorption-Based Short SetupThis short setup formed after price broke below a key demand zone and flipped it into fresh supply.
On the retest, buyers showed aggressive activity, but orderflow revealed significant buy-side absorption — positive delta without any upward follow-through.
Price failed to reclaim the zone and created a clean lower high, showing exhaustion from buyers.
A red candle with strong negative delta confirmed the seller takeover and provided the entry trigger.
This setup was based on a confluence of:
• Structural break (Demand → Supply flip)
• Buy-side absorption
• Lower-high rejection
• Negative-delta confirmation
All conditions pointed toward a high-probability continuation to the downside.
Could we see a reversal from here?GER40 has rejected off the resistance level, which is a pullback resistance, and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 24,22.28
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Stop loss: 24,54.34
Why we like it:
There is a swing high resistance level.
Take profit: 23,863.56
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
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Bullish momentum to extend?DAX40 (DE40) has reacted off the pivot and could rise to the 1st resistance, which has been identified as a swing high resistance.
Pivot: 24,350.30
1st Support: 24,103.22
1st Resistance: 24,777.41
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The opinions given above constitute general market commentary and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
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DAX Bearish pullback capped at 23940The DAX is currently trading with a bearish bias, aligned with the broader downward trend. Recent price action shows a retest of the falling resistance, suggesting a temporary relief rally within the downtrend.
Key resistance is located at 23940, a prior consolidation zone. This level will be critical in determining the next directional move.
A bearish rejection from 23940 could confirm the resumption of the downtrend, targeting the next support levels at 23600, followed by 23430 and 23285 over a longer timeframe.
Conversely, a decisive breakout and daily close above 23940 would invalidate the current bearish setup, shifting sentiment to bullish and potentially triggering a move towards 24095, then 24217.
Conclusion:
The short-term outlook remains bearish unless the price breaks and holds above 23940. Traders should watch for price action signals around this key level to confirm direction. A rejection favours fresh downside continuation, while a breakout signals a potential trend reversal or deeper correction.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
DAX Oversold bounce resistance retest at 23940The DAX is currently trading with a bearish bias, aligned with the broader downward trend. Recent price action shows a retest of the falling resistance, suggesting a temporary relief rally within the downtrend.
Key resistance is located at 23940, a prior consolidation zone. This level will be critical in determining the next directional move.
A bearish rejection from 23940 could confirm the resumption of the downtrend, targeting the next support levels at 23600, followed by 23430 and 23285 over a longer timeframe.
Conversely, a decisive breakout and daily close above 23940 would invalidate the current bearish setup, shifting sentiment to bullish and potentially triggering a move towards 24095, then 24217.
Conclusion:
The short-term outlook remains bearish unless the price breaks and holds above 23940. Traders should watch for price action signals around this key level to confirm direction. A rejection favours fresh downside continuation, while a breakout signals a potential trend reversal or deeper correction.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
GER30 H1 | Bullish Bounce OffMomentum: Bullish
The price has respected the buy entry level, which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating strong bullish momentum.
Buy Entry: 23,989.16
Pullback support
50% Fibonacci retracement
Stop Loss: 23,850.33
Pullback support
61.8% Fibonacci retracement
Take Profit: 24,250.47
Pullback resistance
50% Fibonacci retracement
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Germany DAX 1H Trade PlanGermany DAX 1H Trade Plan
Market is recovering after a deep selloff, showing signs of short-term strength. I’m watching for a move toward the first target to complete liquidity collection before any potential reversal.
If price reaches premium levels, I’ll look for signs of distribution or rejection to align with the higher-timeframe bearish context.
Bias remains bearish overall, but I’ll allow short-term buy setups until the upper liquidity is cleared.
GER40 Intraday Technical AnalysisGER40 Intraday Technical Analysis - 10 Nov 2025
DAX 40 trades at 23,866 (12:25 PM UTC+4) with momentum compressing ahead of Europe close.
Market Context: Wyckoff distribution after vertical rally; Dow Theory shows secondary correction forming; Gann 1x1 angle rests at 23,820.
Daily/4H: 1D spinning top at 23,900 with RSI divergence; 4H broadening wedge between 23,780 support and 23,940 resistance.
1H/30M: 1H forming head-and-shoulders neckline 23,820; 30M Bollinger squeeze plus VWAP flattening signals breakout risk.
15M/5M: 15M descending triangle; 5M falling wedge testing 23,840; Ichimoku Tenkan23,940 with volume +20%; SL 23,880; TP 24,040.
Breakdown Short: 1H close <23,760; SL 23,820; TP 23,640.
Key Levels: Resistance 23,900/23,940/24,040. Support 23,780/23,760/23,640.
Indicators: RSI divergence (4H), BB squeeze (30M), anchored VWAP 23,800, EMA21 flattening, Ichimoku cloud turning neutral.
Risk Notes: Watch for bull trap above 23,940; ECB speakers 14:00 UTC elevate volatility; risk ≤1% per setup.
Educational analysis only; follow your trading plan and manage risk.
DAX40 The Week Ahead The Key Trading LevelsThe DAX is currently trading with a bearish bias, aligned with the broader downward trend. Recent price action shows a retest of the falling resistance, suggesting a temporary relief rally within the downtrend.
Key resistance is located at 23940, a prior consolidation zone. This level will be critical in determining the next directional move.
A bearish rejection from 23940 could confirm the resumption of the downtrend, targeting the next support levels at 23600, followed by 23430 and 23285 over a longer timeframe.
Conversely, a decisive breakout and daily close above 23940 would invalidate the current bearish setup, shifting sentiment to bullish and potentially triggering a move towards 24095, then 24217.
Conclusion:
The short-term outlook remains bearish unless the price breaks and holds above 23940. Traders should watch for price action signals around this key level to confirm direction. A rejection favours fresh downside continuation, while a breakout signals a potential trend reversal or deeper correction.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
long on DAX at the current support levels-currently DAX It's correcting but soon Market Makers should start to buy the dip at the levels showed in the chart. I'm planning to buy a small position at the current price and to take one more long position if the price will go lower
- DAX already for a long period of time didn't made new highs so It's possible if the DAX it's breaking the resistance level that could start a long strong trend
DAX 5-month Rectangle approaching the 1D MA200. Buy Signal.DAX (DE40) has been trading sideways within a large 1D Rectangle for the past 5 months. Since the October 09 High the price has been declining on a Bearish Leg that is about to test the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since April 09 2025, the bottom of the Tariff War.
Given that this is just above the bottom of the Rectangle, it constitutes a very strong Buy Signal. We have seen 4 Bullish Legs initiating on this level within this pattern and they all reached at least the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level. As a result, our current Target on DAX is 24350.
Notice also how the 1D RSI has also entered its own Support Zone.
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Technical Analysis WeeklyGermany 40 is neutral and ranging, with price at 23,932 slightly below the VWAP of 24,139. RSI at 46.2 reflects limited directional conviction. Support is at 23,693, resistance at 24,586.
Wall Street remains bullish in a pullback phase, with price at 47,165 aligned closely with the VWAP at 47,100. RSI at 63.8 signals steady demand and room before overbought conditions. Support is at 46,312, resistance at 47,919.
UK 100 continues its bullish trend but is in a short-term pullback. Price at 9,754 trades above the VWAP of 9,641. RSI at 64.9 indicates firm momentum. Support sits at 9,394, resistance at 9,888.
GBP/USD has turned bearish, but is in a pullback phase- bouncing towards the bottom of its former range, trading at 1.3178 below the VWAP of 1.3232. RSI at 45.0 hints at mild rebound potential within a broader downtrend. Support lies at 1.2993, resistance at 1.3472.
EUR/USD stays under bearish pressure but has entered a pullback back up towards the VWAP of 1.1584. RSI at 46.6 shows consolidation after prior weakness. Support is at 1.1476, resistance at 1.1693.
USD/JPY holds a bullish bias while in a pullback, trading at 154.08 above the VWAP of 152.87. RSI at 61.1 confirms ongoing upward momentum. Support lies at 150.70, resistance at 155.04.
Gold is seemingly breaking back higher after a correction phase, priced at 4,000 just below the VWAP of 4,054. RSI at 56.4 reflects balanced momentum after strong gains. Support stands at 3,840, resistance at 4,267.
Brent Crude is neutral and range-bound, trading at 6,406 near the VWAP of 6,381. RSI at 49.3 confirms indecision with neither side dominant. Support is at 6,108, resistance at 6,655.
Sell Plan (DE40 | Daily) Garmany DAX**Sell Plan (DE40 | Daily)**
Price has swept short-term highs after taking out liquidity near the previous range top. The most recent daily candle is still active, showing a potential shift from buy-side to sell-side liquidity.
Wait for price to retest the marked zone to confirm weakness or rejection. Once confirmation appears, look for entries aligned with the trade plan.
Bearish targets lie toward the liquidity pool below and the higher timeframe demand zone.
Follow plan strictly — trade only as per setup, without adjusting SL, BE, or TP once in the trade.
GER40 In-Depth: Mid-Day Technical SynthesisGER40 In-Depth: Mid-Day Technical Synthesis | November 12
Live Data: 24,245.6 | 11:30 UTC+4
EXECUTIVE SNAPSHOT
The German blue-chip index is currently navigating a critical juncture. Mid-morning action reveals a market organism responding to competing forces: institutional demand supporting lower levels while supply emerges at recent highs. This synthesis dissects the underlying mechanics.
STRUCTURAL ANATOMY
▪ Dow Theory Application: The primary uptrend, established in late October, shows signs of maturation. Recent price action has produced a lower high relative to the prior swing peak, suggesting potential exhaustion. The integrity of this trend remains contingent upon defense of the 24,150 support band.
▪ Japanese Candlestick Morphology: The 30-minute timeframe exhibits a series of indecisive candles— shooting stars and hammers alternating at resistance, indicating rejection of higher price levels followed by temporary recovery attempts. This oscillatory behavior typifies late-stage accumulation before directional commitment.
▪ Elliott Wave Architecture: A potential Wave (4) corrective phase is unfolding, characterized by a triangle formation on the 1-hour chart. The geometric containment suggests Wave (5) is imminent, pending triangle resolution.
MICRO-INDICATOR READOUT
Ichimoku (4H): Price trades immediately beneath the Kumo cloud ceiling (~24,380). The Tenkan-Sen (blue) and Kijun-Sen (red) are converging, creating a potential bullish alignment if price breaks above the cloud.
RSI (1H): Hovering in the 45–55 band. No divergence signals present; momentum is neutral. However, sustained pressure below 40 would signal bearish acceleration.
VWAP: Slightly above current price (~24,260), suggesting intraday sellers retain marginal structural advantage.
Bollinger Bands (15M): Bands are in a moderate squeeze state, indicating volatility compression. A breakout is anticipated within the next 2–4 hours.
HARMONIC & GANN CONSIDERATIONS
A Gartley Pattern (bearish variant) is approaching completion near 24,380, with the Price Reversal Zone spanning 24,350–24,400. This convergence with the Ichimoku cloud overhead creates a formidable resistance barrier. A rejection here would validate the bearish Gartley thesis.
Conversely, a Rising Wedge is simultaneously visible on the 4-hour chart. Traditionally, wedges resolve in the direction opposite to their slope, suggesting downside bias if the upper trendline is breached below support.
EXECUTION FRAMEWORK
LONG SCENARIO (Conditional – 45% Probability):
Activation occurs on a decisive push above 24,380 (Ichimoku cloud & Gartley resistance zone), coupled with volume confirmation.
- Entry: 24,400–24,420
- Stop Loss: 24,280
- Target 1: 24,550
- Target 2: 24,700
SHORT SCENARIO (Primary – 55% Probability):
Activation upon breakdown and close below the triangle support (~24,100), confirming Gartley completion and rising wedge failure.
- Entry: 24,080–24,050
- Stop Loss: 24,200
- Target 1: 23,900
- Target 2: 23,650
COMMENTARY:
The DAX remains a market in balance. Pattern confluence at resistance (Ichimoku-Gartley-Wedge) argues for caution on extended longs. Support defense at 24,150 is the operative thesis. Breaks here warrant swift tactical repositioning.
GER40 INSTITUTIONAL ACCUMULATION PHASE: 📊 GER40 INSTITUTIONAL ACCUMULATION PHASE: Breakout Architecture & Supply Zone Defense - November 13, 2025
Asset: GER40 (DAX CFD Spot) | Current Level: 24,475 | Analysis Date: Nov 13, 2025 | Market Condition: Bull Continuation Setup
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🔍 STRUCTURAL TREND FRAMEWORK
Sequential price action demonstrates consistent markup pattern across timeframe hierarchy. Bullish structure remains robust with price stabilization above the 200-period simple moving average confirming ongoing accumulation cycle. Support-level rejections exhibit strong demand absorption - upward participation bias exceptionally high.
📍 PATTERN RECOGNITION ARCHITECTURE
5-Min Zone: Ascending pennant nearing apex - directional breakout probability elevated
Quarter-Hour Interval: Bullish wedge consolidation - upper band penetration signals continuation
30-Min Structure: Inverted formation resembling cup build with handle positioning near key level
Hourly Context: Rectangular consolidation box - breakout vector pointing skyward
4-Hour Viewpoint: Reverse shoulder-head-shoulder formation with neckline action pending
⚙️ QUANTITATIVE INDICATOR MATRIX
Momentum Gauge: 4H oscillator range 63-68 (sustained positive momentum, non-stretched extremes)
Bollinger Band Position: Price action above centerline on 1H - volatility expansion pattern emerging
Moving Average Stack: 20-period > 50-period > 200-period (Golden Cross architecture established)
Volume-Weighted Benchmark: Price deployment above daily volume-weighted average confirms buyers in control
Cloud Formation: Senkou alignment favoring upside - Leading Span B crossed above Span A
🎯 EXECUTION FRAMEWORK & SCENARIOS
DOMINANT BULLISH SCENARIO:
Activation Trigger: Hourly candle closure exceeding 24,080 with intraday volume acceleration
Price Objectives: 24,175 (R1) → 24,245 (R2) → 24,330 (Weekly Apex)
Downside Guard: Stop placement below 24,000 (Triple formation base breach)
CONTINGENCY BEARISH SCENARIO:
Trigger Point: Failure from 24,105 + Closing below 4H support + Volume washout
Target Zones: 23,980 → 23,900
Protective Stop: Above 24,150
🔑 PRICE LEVEL HIERARCHY
Resistance Cluster: 24,105 | 24,175 | 24,245 | 24,330
Support Foundation: 24,015 | 23,980 | 23,900
📐 HARMONIC & CYCLICAL MECHANICS
Geometric pattern analysis identifies potential Gartley structure approaching completion - asymmetric retracement zones suggesting reversal environment. Angular analysis from cyclical lows validates ascending trajectory with structural integrity intact through geometric resistance markers.
✅ DECISION CRITERIA CHECKLIST
Bullish Confirmation Criteria: Volume bar expansion | Hourly close above threshold | Oscillator non-divergence
⚠️ Risk Disclosure: Analysis provided for educational framework only. Position management and capital preservation via stop-loss implementation remain trader responsibility. Market dynamics subject to instantaneous regime change.
Is Germany's Economic Success Just an Illusion?Germany's benchmark DAX 40 index surged 30% over the past year, creating an impression of robust economic health. However, this performance masks a troubling reality: the index represents globally diversified multinationals whose revenues originate largely outside Germany's struggling domestic market. Behind the DAX's resilience lies fundamental decay. GDP fell 0.3% in Q2 2025, industrial output reached its lowest level since May 2020, and manufacturing declined 4.8% year-over-year. The energy-intensive sector suffered even steeper contraction at 7.5%, revealing that high input costs have become a structural, long-term threat rather than a temporary challenge.
The automotive sector exemplifies Germany's deeper crisis. Once-dominant manufacturers are losing ground in the electric vehicle transition, with their European market share in China plummeting from 24% in 2020 to just 15% in 2024. Despite leading global R&D spending at €58.4 billion in 2023, German automakers remain trapped at Level 2+ autonomy while competitors pursue full self-driving solutions. This technological lag stems from stringent regulations, complex approval processes, and critical dependencies on Chinese rare earth materials, which could trigger €45-75 billion in losses and jeopardize 1.2 million jobs.
Germany's structural rigidities compound these challenges. Federal fragmentation across 16 states paralyzes digitalization efforts, with the country ranking below the EU average in digital infrastructure despite ambitious sovereignty initiatives. The nation serves as Europe's fiscal anchor, contributing €18 billion net to the EU budget in 2024, yet this burden constrains domestic investment capacity. Meanwhile, demographic pressures persist, though immigration has stabilized the workforce; highly skilled migrants disproportionately consider leaving, threatening to transform a demographic solution into brain drain. Without radical reform to streamline bureaucracy, pivot R&D toward disruptive technologies, and retain top talent, the disconnect between the DAX and Germany's foundational economy will only widen.






















