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M2ST34 trade ideas

$MSTR Swing Trade Setup: Layered Short Entries on Breakout📉 MSTR "STRATEGY INC" STOCK – Bearish Thief Plan (Swing/Scalp Setup) ⚡ Trade Setup (Bearish Pending Order Plan) Asset: NASDAQ:MSTR (MicroStrategy Inc.) Plan: Bearish (waiting for support breakout confirmation). Entry Zone: Pending breakout entry @ 320.00 ⚡ Layered “Thief” Strategy (scaling entries): Sell Limit Layers: 340.00 / 330.00 / 320.00 You may add or adjust layers based on your own risk tolerance. 🔔 Set TradingView alerts at breakout levels to track price action. Stop Loss (Thief Style): Protective SL @ 360.00 (after breakout confirmation). Adjust per your strategy & risk management. Target Zone (Exit): Police barricade support @ 290.00 Note: Take profit is discretionary — escape with profits at your own chosen level 🚪💰. 🔑 Why This Plan? (Thief Strategy Context) The Thief Plan = using multiple layered limit entries after a breakout for better risk/reward. Scaling entries gives flexibility while reducing FOMO and chasing. Exit early at support barricades or oversold traps. 📊 MicroStrategy (MSTR) Market Data Report As of September 7, 2025 1. Retail & Institutional Sentiment 🤝 Retail: Mixed / cautious (crypto exposure volatility). Institutional: Neutral → slightly bearish (Bitcoin correlation + regulatory risk). Estimated Sentiment: 55% Neutral / 30% Bearish / 15% Bullish. 2. Fear & Greed Index 😨😋 Current level: Neutral ~50/100 Suggests balanced emotions → no extreme greed or fear. 3. Fundamental & Macro Scores 📈📉 Fundamental ~60/100: MSTR tied to Bitcoin trends, highly volatile. Macro ~55/100: Pressures include crypto regulation, tech volatility, interest rates. Bitcoin remains the key driver. 4. Market Outlook 🐂🐻 Bull Case: BTC rally → MSTR boost, institutional adoption helps. Bear Case: Regulatory clampdowns, BTC volatility → downside pressure. Overall: Neutral → Slightly Bearish (short-term caution). 🚀 Key Takeaways NASDAQ:MSTR moves in sync with Bitcoin → monitor BTC charts closely. Sentiment is not strongly bullish → short setups have edge here. Thief layering strategy aligns with volatility. Always respect SL & manage risk 🔐. 🔗 Related Pairs to Watch BITSTAMP:BTCUSD NASDAQ:COIN (Coinbase) NASDAQ:RIOT (Riot Platforms) NASDAQ:MARA (Marathon Digital) SP:SPX / NASDAQ:NDX (macro impact on tech/crypto plays) ✨ “If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!” #MSTR #MicroStrategy #Stocks #SwingTrade #Scalping #BearishSetup #CryptoStocks #LayeredStrategy #ThiefPlan #BitcoinCorrelation #TradingViewIdea
NASDAQ:MSTRShort
by The-Thief
MSTR - $300 > $850Howdy ho! I hope everyone is well. I'm going to put my best foot forward for my expectations for MSTR. Everyone was probably let down by the lack of inclusion in the S&P, on Friday. But that's OK! Hopefully this chart will help you with overall direction for MSTR. So what do we have? A validated fib (it's validated because it is anchored on the trendline and the previous extension gave us an absolutely perfect target at the high in 2024 at the 2.618. I will post this, below. A clear support trendline that perfectly aligns with the 50% retrace. A clear line of support on the 61.8, tested in March/April of 2025 at the $235 level. RSI is also starting to look supportive of a move up. Also of interest is the peak out of the channel, telling me we could explode higher out of this channel in the future. just something to watch for. Thanks and have a great one!
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by novamatic
Microstrategy: Further DeclineAfter a brief consolidation, MSTR continued its decline since our last update, further developing turquoise wave 2, where we still see price positioned. We continue to anticipate the low of this wave above the support at $153.49. In the meantime, we have revised the magenta substructure of wave 2 to a - - formation, with the final (wave- ) leg currently unfolding. Once turquoise wave 2 completes, we expect a strong rally above resistance at $674.18, which should significantly advance the broader upward impulse. However, under our new alternative scenario, a different wave count could prevail: price may currently be forming magenta wave alt. to the upside, developing a blue three-part substructure in the process. In this 25% likely scenario, the next move would be for blue wave alt. (b) to finish within the nearby blue alternative Target Zone between $306.60 and $252.67, before wave alt. (c) pushes up toward the top of magenta wave alt. near $674.18. Within this alternative, the blue zone could offer long entry opportunities, though heightened caution is warranted: since this remains only an alternative scenario, risk is elevated, and we consider strict risk management—such as setting a stop 1% below the lower edge of the zone—absolutely essential.
NASDAQ:MSTRShort
by MarketIntel
The Next Big Crypto Trade Bitcoin has experienced a notable decline following a failed auction attempt after sweeping all-time high liquidity. This move is now being followed by a significant retracement toward the lower boundary of the broader range, with the current range low positioned around $111K. In contrast, MicroStrategy (MSTR) has exhibited a more structurally defined downtrend, having broken below its previous pivot low. This price action potentially forms a textbook ABC corrective pattern, with the 1:1 extension target clearly identifiable. Should the broader market continue to decline in the lead-up to this week’s FOMC meeting and Powell’s remarks, a compelling long setup may emerge. This could coincide with a potential 'sell-the-news' reaction, particularly if the Federal Reserve moves to cut interest rates. Rate-sensitive equities and assets may initially respond to such news with bullish enthusiasm, possibly triggering a wave of market euphoria and leading to a short squeeze scenario. I’m closely monitoring the $320 level on MSTR, which aligns with three key technical confluences: The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level from the overall move (swing low to swing high). The 1:1 extension target of the possible ABC corrective structure. A key support/resistance flip zone, which may mark a potential structural pivot point. This zone presents a high-probability area for potential price reaction. Let’s see how this plays out.
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by afurs1
3
$MSTR – Bear Flag Breakdown SetupNASDAQ:MSTR – Bear Flag Triggering Despite Crypto Strength MicroStrategy ( NASDAQ:MSTR ) has been drifting lower even as crypto has ripped the last few months — a clear sign of relative weakness. Every rally attempt has been faded, and now the chart is setting up a clean bear flag breakdown. 🔹 The Setup: Price is pressing the $326 trigger level on a bear flag structure. A breakdown here opens the door to $300 for the first cover zone. Weak price action despite a strong sector = bearish divergence. 🔹 Market Context: The NASDAQ:QQQ is flashing distribution signals — failed breakouts in momentum names and heavy selling under the surface. If indexes continue to weaken, NASDAQ:MSTR could accelerate to the downside as speculative money comes out. 🔹 My Trade Plan: 1️⃣ Entry: Short on breakdown through $326. 2️⃣ Target: First covers into $300. 3️⃣ Stop: Above the flag highs — no need to fight if it reverses. Why I Like This Setup: Relative weakness vs. crypto = red flag for bulls. Bear flag structure + clear trigger + defined target. Broader market weakness adds conviction.
NASDAQ:MSTRShort
by kunal00
1
$MSTR better not cross $315 or less....While many don't agree with the direction that MSTR is heading, the technicals seem to tell a very clear story. Looking at support and resistance levels, we can see a strong resistance levels - which is miles away from where it is today! - and seems to be encroaching to support levels of around $315. If NASDAQ:MSTR breaks $315, CBOE:MSTZ could be a VERY NICE play..... Have a hunch that we'll see an UltraShort signal soon, and then show will begin!
NASDAQ:MSTRShort
by antonini2002
MSTR Short Alert | Lean Short Bias at $335 # ⚡ MSTR Short Alert | Lean Short Bias (Sep 2, 2025) 🪙📉 📊 **Market Summary:** * Daily/Intraday: Bearish (Price < daily EMAs, RSI \~35, MACD negative) 🔻 * Weekly: Weakening but not decisively broken (near/above 50-week EMA) 📈 * Volume: Light — low participation on recent declines ⚖️ * Headlines: Neutral; watch BTC correlation & macro events 📰 **Net Bias:** Lean short on daily timeframe; small position recommended 🐻 --- ## ✅ Trade Plan * 🎯 **Instrument:** MSTR * 🔀 **Direction:** SHORT * 💵 **Entry Price:** \~335.0 (acceptable 333–336) * 🛑 **Stop Loss:** 341.13 (daily resistance / pivot) * 🎯 **Take Profit:** 320.00 (scale 60%), trail remaining 40% to 310.00 * 📊 **Position Size:** 1.5% of portfolio * 📈 **Confidence:** 60% * ⏰ **Entry Timing:** Market Open --- ## ⚠️ Key Risks * Low volume → false break / short-squeeze risk ⚡ * MSTR-BTC correlation or S\&P rumors could gap price higher 🪙 * Weekly support \~322–325 may limit downside 🛑 --- ## 💡 Trade Rationale * Daily + 30m confluence: short-term bounce attempts stalling under intraday resistances (336–339) * Weekly momentum weakening → controlled small-size short * Stop above 341.13 → disciplined risk management --- \#️⃣ **Tags / Hashtags:** \#MSTR #ShortTrade #StockTrading #SwingTrade #CryptoCorrelation #DailyRSI #TradingSignal #RiskManagement 🐻🔥
NASDAQ:MSTRShort
by quantsignals
MSTR Headed to Balance Sheet Insolvency?If my wave forecast is correct and BTC trades down toward $23K (ie. 80% log retracement level of the 2023-2025 bull run), MicroStrategy (Strategy) becomes balance sheet insolvent: liabilities (convertible debt + preferreds like STRK/STRF/STRD/STRC) would exceed assets. That doesn’t mean automatic bankruptcy. Their convertibles only cost ~$35M/yr in interest, and even with ~$550–$680M/yr on ~$6.43B at 8–10% in preferred dividends layered on top, they can still cover fixed obligations short-term by liquidating BTC or issuing more equity. That keeps them out of Chapter 11 in the near term. But the trade-off is ugly: Massive dilution from issuing stock at distressed prices, or Selling BTC at $23K just to stay afloat. The real problem is the refinancing wall starting late 2027. With equity wiped on paper and ~$1.1B coming due by early 2028, any refinancing deal will be extremely punitive, handing creditors cheap equity or forcing fire-sale BTC disposals. Market pricing implication: Equity = option value only. Common stock would likely collapse into deeply distressed single digits (<$10), well below NAV, because shareholders sit behind $8.2B in converts and $6.4B+ in high-yield preferreds. So even if BTC really does retrace all the way to $23k, MSTR doesn’t go to $0 right away, but the stock trades like a distressed, over-leveraged call option on Bitcoin, with survival depending entirely on a rebound before maturities hit. BTC Forecast:
NASDAQ:MSTRShort
by Intuit