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BITCOIN ON MOUNTLYHello everyone, I’ve been reviewing Bitcoin on the monthly timeframe and analyzing its local lows, and the results turned out to be quite interesting. Since the major correction in December 2017, Bitcoin has shown recurring corrective structures on this timeframe. When measuring the drawdowns from cycle tops, we typically see corrections in the 70–80% range. Also, before each major downturn, the price tends to form two local lows, with the second one usually providing traders a final opportunity to exit. This year, based on both historical behaviour and current market dynamics, we’re seeing a similar pattern develop. Considering these factors, I expect the market to remain bearish for at least the next nine months. I see the current potential bottom near $58,800, and if this level breaks, the maximum correction could bring Bitcoin down into the $29–33K range. On the upside, the $93–102K zone remains, in my view, the most favorable range for exiting the market. Wishing you all success.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Alixow98
Double Top Rejection or Bull Trap Ahead of $142K?Analysis: Bitcoin is currently approaching a major inflection point, with price action suggesting two distinct macro scenarios: Scenario 1 – Bearish Reversal: A strong rejection from current levels could signal the formation of a double top, triggering a deep correction toward $74,000. This move would align with weakening on-chain momentum, declining exchange inflows, and fading retail enthusiasm—classic signs of distribution at highs. A sustained break below the $120K support zone would likely accelerate downside pressure. Scenario 2 – Final Bull Run Extension: Alternatively, BTC may stage one last parabolic push toward the psychological $142,000 mark, fueled by institutional FOMO or macro catalysts (e.g., ETF inflows, Fed pivot). However, this top would likely be short-lived, setting up a sharp reversal into the $118,000 demand zone—a major liquidity pool and previous consolidation area. Key Takeaway: Watch the $128K–$132K range closely. A failed breakout here with rising volume divergence favors Scenario 1. Conversely, a clean close above $135K with expanding volume opens the door to Scenario 2—but only as a sell-the-news event. Risk management is critical; this looks like a potential exhaustion phase either way.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by mahdipourlotfi
Can Michael Saylor be Margin Called? The answer is NO!This is the "Doomsday Scenario" that bears love to talk about. The short answer is: No. Under the current structure, Michael Saylor cannot be "margin called" in the traditional sense. However, while the mechanical risk of forced selling is near zero, the psychological risk to the market is massive. Here is the technical breakdown of why MicroStrategy (MSTR) is likely safe from a forced liquidation, even if Bitcoin crashes to $20k. 1. The "Margin Call" Myth (Why he is safe) People assume MicroStrategy has taken out massive loans using Bitcoin as collateral (like a home equity loan). If that were true, a price drop would force the bank to seize his Bitcoin. This is no longer the case. The Silvergate Loan is Gone: In the past, MSTR did have a Bitcoin-backed loan (with Silvergate Bank) that had a liquidation trigger around $21k. That loan was fully paid off years ago (March 2023). Current Debt = Unsecured: As of late 2025, MicroStrategy's debt consists almost entirely of Convertible Senior Notes. These are "unsecured" debts. What this means: The bondholders have no claim on the specific Bitcoin in the wallet. They cannot force Saylor to sell Bitcoin if the price drops. They only care about getting their money back when the bond matures (which is years away). No LTV Triggers: There are no "Loan-to-Value" maintenance requirements. Bitcoin could go to $1,000 tomorrow, and technically, no automatic sell order would trigger. 2. The Real Risk: The "Maturity Wall" (2027–2028) Saylor doesn't have to worry about price today; he has to worry about price on the maturity dates. His debt is structured like a ticking clock. He doesn't make monthly principal payments; he pays a lump sum at the end. The Danger Dates: He has billions in notes maturing in 2027, 2028, and 2030. The Scenario: If Bitcoin is trading at $30k in 2027, he won't have the cash to pay back the bondholders. The "Forced Sell": In that specific future scenario, he would either have to: Refinance (take a new loan to pay the old one—hard to do if Bitcoin is crashing). Issue more MSTR stock (diluting shareholders to pay debt). Sell Bitcoin (The last resort). Verdict: The "Forced Sell" risk is a 2027 problem, not a 2025 problem. 3. The "Infinite Money Glitch" (The 21/21 Plan) You might have heard of his new "21/21 Plan" (raising $42 Billion). This is actually his defense mechanism against a crash. How it works: He sells MSTR stock (Equity) to buy Bitcoin. Why it saves him: Equity has no "margin call" and no "payback date." If he raises $21B selling stock and Bitcoin goes to zero, the shareholders lose money, but the company doesn't go bankrupt. He is effectively shifting his risk from "Debt" (dangerous) to "Equity" (permanent capital). 4. Can he push the market down without selling? Yes. This is the subtle danger. Even if Saylor never sells a single Satoshi, MSTR can still crash the crypto market via "The discount loop." The Premium Implosion: Right now, MSTR trades at a massive premium (people pay ~$2.50 for every $1.00 of Bitcoin MSTR holds). The Crash: In a Crypto Winter, that premium can flip to a discount (trading below the value of the Bitcoin it holds). The Result: If MSTR shares crash harder than Bitcoin, hedge funds who are "Long Bitcoin / Short MSTR" (an arbitrage trade) might panic-sell real Bitcoin to cover their MSTR shorts. The volatility of his stock can destabilize the spot price of Bitcoin itself. Summary Forced Liquidation Risk: Near Zero. (No margin loans exist). Insolvency Risk: Low until 2027. Market Fear Risk: High. Saylor is not a "forced seller." He is a "stubborn holder." In a crash, he is more likely to dilute his shareholders to death (issuing more stock) than he is to sell his Bitcoin stack.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by undersun
$BTC 4H Analysis – Clear Bullish Structure FormingRight now on the 4-hour chart, BTC is clearly building a strong bullish pattern. 🔹 Price action is forming a clean Inverse Head & Shoulders structure. 🔹 RSI is showing a bullish divergence, meaning momentum is strengthening while price is stabilising. 🔹 This setup usually indicates a breakout move once the neckline is breached. If BTC starts rising from the current zone, the market is likely to grab liquidity near the $97,000 level, which is the next major area where stop-loss clusters and pending orders are sitting. In simple terms: BTC looks ready for a bullish expansion — liquidity target: ~$97,000.
BINANCE:BTCUSD.PLong
by crypto_vulture_signals
What are the chances that Bitcoin skyrockets from here?I am betting on Scenario B - see below - that is just my preference - DYOR If we define "Skyrocket" as a V-shaped recovery that blasts back to $110k+ within the next 7–14 days, the probability is statistically low (<15%). However, if we define it as a "violent bounce" starting from the $84k target we discussed, the probability jumps significantly. Based on the current market structure (Liquidity Vacuum + Macro Headwinds), here is the probability breakdown for the three main scenarios over the next 30 days. Scenario A: The "Immaculate V-Shape" (Skyrocket from Here) Probability: ~10-15% The Thesis: The $90k support holds, shorts get exhausted, and a surprise external catalyst (like a Fed pivot rumor or massive corporate buy) triggers a squeeze that ignores the technical damage. Why it's unlikely: The "Brick Wall" Overhead: Even if we bounce, there is a massive concentration of "stale supply" (people waiting to break even) at $96,000 and $106,000. These act as gravity. No Fuel: As we saw in the derivatives data, Open Interest is low. There are no massive short positions to squeeze. You can't have a "short squeeze" without shorts. Scenario B: The "Flush & Launch" (The Air Pocket Play) Probability: ~60% (Most Likely) The Thesis: The market is too heavy to go up, but too bullish long-term to crash. Price capitulates through $90k, triggering the stop-loss cascade. It hits the $83,800 – $84,500 zone (Miner Breakeven + 0.382 Fib). This is the "Skyrocket" moment: The massive stablecoin liquidity on the sidelines (SSR ratio) steps in all at once. The Outcome: A violent wick down, followed by a $10k+ candle upward in days. This is the classic "V-Bottom" that leaves hesitation buyers behind. Scenario C: The "Crypto Winter" (Breakdown) Probability: ~25% The Thesis: The "Miner Wall" at $84k fails due to macro pressure (e.g., inflation spikes, Fed officially delays cuts to 2026). The Outcome: We grind down to the Realized Price (~$62k) over 3-4 months. No skyrocket; just a slow bleed.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by undersun
Is BTC supply still tightening or is the thesis unravelling?This is one of the most complex moments for the "supply squeeze" narrative in recent years. The short answer is that the structural supply tightening is real (the math hasn't changed), but the market thesis is temporarily unraveling because a "supply squeeze" requires steady demand to function—and demand has collapsed. As of late 2025, you are seeing a clash between mechanical scarcity (which is working) and market liquidity (which is broken). Here is the breakdown of why the thesis feels like it is dying, versus what is actually happening under the hood. 1. Why the Thesis Feels Like It's Unraveling (The "Fake" Supply) The "Supply Squeeze" thesis relies on the idea that because there are fewer coins, price must go up. That logic fails when forced sellers enter the room. Currently, supply is flooding the market from three specific sources that don't care about the "long-term squeeze." Miner Capitulation: This is the big one. Post-halving (April 2024), mining profitability has been razor-thin. In late 2025, we are seeing signs of "miner capitulation"—where miners are forced to sell their treasury stacks just to pay electricity bills or upgrade rigs. They are price-insensitive sellers; they sell because they have to. The "Paper" Supply (Derivatives): While spot Bitcoin is scarce, paper Bitcoin (futures, options) is abundant. Traders have been hedging downside risk aggressively (buying puts), which forces market makers to short Bitcoin to hedge themselves. This creates "synthetic supply" that suppresses the price even if no physical coins are moving. ETF Outflows: The ETFs were the primary "demand sponge" earlier in the cycle. In late 2025, seeing consecutive days/weeks of outflows turns that sponge into a firehose. When ETFs sell, they return coins to the market, effectively undoing the "lock-up" effect we cheered for in 2024. 2. Why the Supply Squeeze is Still Structurally Intact If you look at the on-chain data, the "Unraveling" is mostly a price phenomenon, not a supply phenomenon. The core mechanics of the squeeze are actually tighter than ever. The US Strategic Reserve (The Wildcard): A massive shift occurred in March 2025 with the executive order establishing a "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve." This effectively took the US Government's massive stash (~200,000+ BTC) off the table as a potential seller. In previous years, the fear of a US Gov "dump" was constant. That supply shock is now gone, legally locked up. "Ancient Supply" is Growing: Long-term holders (coins that haven't moved in 1+ years) are largely refusing to sell at these levels. The "panic" is coming almost exclusively from Short-Term Holders (retail who bought in 2024/2025) and Miners. The "Diamond Hands" cohort is still absorbing supply, just not fast enough to counter the panic. Mt. Gox Kicked the Can: The feared Mt. Gox repayment distribution was delayed again to October 2026. While the market hates the uncertainty, the reality is that those billions of dollars in Bitcoin did not hit the market in 2025 as feared (Coming Oct 2026). 3. The Verdict: Demand Shock > Supply Squeeze The supply squeeze thesis isn't wrong; it's just dormant. A supply squeeze is like a dry forest. It is perfectly primed for a massive fire (price explosion), but it still needs a spark (demand). Right now, macroeconomics (rates, liquidity vacuum) have stomped out the spark. If demand returns: The squeeze will be violent and immediate, because the available float on exchanges is at multi-year lows. If demand stays dead: The "tight supply" acts as a floor, preventing a total collapse to zero, but it cannot force the price up on its own. Summary: Bullish "Squeeze" Factors Halving: Daily issuance is roughly 450 BTC (historic low). US Gov: ~200k BTC locked in Strategic Reserve. Exchanges: Balances are still trending down long-term. Bearish "Unraveling" Factors *Miners: Forced selling to cover OpEx/CapEx. *ETFs: Net outflows returning coins to market. Macro: High rates/strong dollar killing risk appetite. The thesis hasn't unraveled, but it has been overpowered. ****************Is the "miner capitulation" phase nearing its End?******************* The Hash Ribbon indicator tracks two moving averages of Bitcoin's hash rate (30-day and 60-day). What just happened: The 30-day moving average has recently crossed back above the 60-day moving average. What this means: The "Capitulation" phase—where miners are turning off machines en masse—has technically finished. We have entered the "Recovery" zone. The "Buy" Signal: In this specific indicator, the formal "Buy" signal (often a blue dot on charts) flashes only when price momentum turns positive after this crossover. We have the crossover, but the market is still waiting for the price momentum confirmation. Why this matters for your "Supply Squeeze" thesis This confirms the mechanical "squeeze" is trying to work. The fact that hashrate is recovering despite the price being down ~25% from the highs (from ~$126k to ~$95k) suggests that the weak miners have already been flushed out. The remaining miners are stronger and less likely to dump coins at these levels. The Catch: While the signal is bullish, the reality is that miner margins are still brutal. Hashprice (Miner Revenue): is stuck near historical lows (~$50–$60 per PH/s). The Risk: If price takes another leg down (below $90k), we could trigger a double capitulation—a rare but disastrous event where the "Recovery" fails and miners start shutting down again. Summary The "unraveling" you feel is the price dropping, but the Hash Ribbons confirm the structural supply shock is intact. The weak hands (miners) have largely sold. The "Sell Pressure" form this group is exhausted. **************What about exchange liquidity (order books) - is there enough buy wall at $90k to catch the falling knife?************** This is a classic "good news, bad news" situation on the order books. I checked the liquidity depth for Binance and Coinbase as of late November 2025. The short answer is: No, the $90k buy wall is likely not strong enough to catch a serious "falling knife" on its own. While there is a wall there, it is surprisingly thin. If we get another wave of panic selling, $90k looks less like a concrete floor and more like a speed bump. 1. The "Thin" Wall at $90k The Data: Market depth (the amount of capital waiting to buy within 1% of the current price) has collapsed by roughly 30% since October. What we see: There are buy orders clustered at $90,000, but they are sporadic. In a high-volatility flush, these orders would likely get filled (eaten up) in minutes. The "Spoofing" Risk: Large limit orders at round numbers like $90k are often "pulled" by market makers right before the price hits them. The fact that the wall isn't backed by deep, laddered support below it makes it fragile. 2. The "Air Pocket" Below $90k This is the most dangerous part of the current setup. If $90k breaks decisively, there is very little structural support immediately below it. The Vacuum: There is a liquidity "air pocket" between $90k and ~$84k. Why this happens: Traders are terrified of catching the knife, so they have moved their bids much lower. The Next Real Floor: The first massive, institutional-grade buy zone doesn't appear until $83,000 – $84,000. This aligns with the "Miner Breakeven" logic—at $84k, valuations become undeniable for long-term value buyers. 3. The Miner Problem (Revisited) Remember the "Miner Capitulation" recovery we discussed? Miner Breakeven: The estimated production cost for one Bitcoin is currently around $94,000. The Squeeze: With price currently hovering near/below $90k, miners are technically losing money on every block. They cannot afford to step in and buy at $90k to support the price; they are too busy trying to survive. This removes a key "natural buyer" from the $90k defense line. Verdict Don't trust the $90k support blindly. The market is currently playing a game of "Chicken." Buyers are on strike until they see if $90k holds, but because they are on strike, $90k is less likely to hold. Next Step: Since the spot market walls are thin, the real price direction often comes from the derivatives market (Futures/Options). *******Is a short squeeze in the cards?*************** You are hoping for a "Short Squeeze" to launch the price back up, but the derivatives data does not support that right now. I checked the Funding Rates and Long/Short ratios as of late November 2025, and the market setup is actually the opposite of what you want for a squeeze. 1. Funding Rates: The "Reset" (Not a Trap) For a massive short squeeze to happen, we need deeply negative funding rates (meaning shorts are paying longs to keep positions open because everyone is betting down). Current Reality: Funding rates are flat to slightly positive (~0.005% to 0.009% on Binance/Bybit). What this means: Traders are not aggressively shorting this level. They are simply not buying. The market isn't crowded with shorts waiting to get wrecked; it is crowded with fearful longs who are slowly bleeding out. The implication: There is no "fuel" for a squeeze. If price goes up, there aren't enough leveraged shorts to panic-buy and drive the price higher. 2. The Long/Short Ratio: Bulls are the Ones Trapped The ratio is currently skewing Long, which is bearish. Retail is Long: On many exchanges, the Long/Short ratio is above 1.5 (meaning more retail traders are betting on a bounce than betting on a dump). Smart Money is Short/Neutral: Large accounts are holding shorts or staying in cash. The Danger: When Retail is long and price is dropping, the "squeeze" that happens is a Long Squeeze (liquidation cascade), where longs are forced to sell, driving the price down further to that $84k level we discussed. 3. Open Interest (OI) has Collapsed Open Interest is the total value of active bets in the casino. The Data: OI has dropped significantly (down billions since the October highs). Interpretation: The gamblers have largely left the table. The "Unravelling" you asked about earlier is partly this—leverage leaving the system. We are moving back to a "Spot Driven" market, where real buying (not leverage) is required to move price. The Verdict There is no "Short Squeeze" savior coming at $90k. The market is currently in a "Long Squeeze" dynamic. Traders trying to catch the bottom are providing the liquidity for bigger players to exit. Strategic Implication: The market is waiting for a Spot Buyer (like a Sovereign Wealth Fund, corporation, or massive ETF inflow) to step in. Derivatives traders are currently too scared to take the lead. Next Step: Since the "Squeeze" is off the table and we are looking for "Spot Demand." ********Why would their be a squeeze down?*************** This is one of the most counter-intuitive mechanics in crypto: Low Open Interest (OI) often makes the market more dangerous, not less. You are assuming that because the "casino is empty" (low OI), there is nobody left to squeeze. The reality is that while the explosion size might be smaller, the fragility of the market is much higher. Here is why a "Squeeze Down" (Long Squeeze) is actually a prime risk right now, even with collapsed OI. 1. The "Empty Room" Problem (Liquidity Vacuum) When Open Interest collapses, it usually means Market Makers and institutional players have pulled back. They remove their massive limit orders (the "Buy Walls") from the order book. High OI Market: To drop the price by $1,000, you might need to sell $500 million worth of Bitcoin because there are so many active orders absorbing the selling. Low OI Market (Now): Because the order book is thin, selling just $50 million might drop the price by that same $1,000. The Risk: In this environment, a relatively small panic sell triggers a disproportionately large price crash. The "cushion" is gone. 2. The "Concentrated Pain" Ratio The total amount of leverage is down, but the ratio of who is holding it matters more. Who left? The smart money (Hedge Funds, Market Makers) has largely exited or gone flat. Who stayed? The "Stubborn Longs." These are typically retail traders or early bulls who refuse to sell. The Setup: The remaining OI is heavily skewed toward Longs. Even if there are fewer of them, (below the $88k region) their forced selling (liquidations) hits that "Air Pocket" we discussed. Because there are no buyers (liquidity vacuum), the price falls rapidly to find the next willing buyer. Here is the completion of why a "Low OI Squeeze" is a legitimate threat: 2. The "Concentrated Pain" Ratio (Continued) The Trap: The remaining OI is currently skewed Long. Even if the total dollars at risk are lower than usual, the people still in the market are those betting on a bounce. The Mechanic: If Bitcoin drops below $90k, these "stubborn longs" are forced to sell (either by margin calls or panic). Because the "smart money" (who usually provide buy walls) has left the room, these forced sells hit a thin order book. Result: A small amount of selling creates a large price drop. It’s like a crowded theater (the longs) trying to exit through a single small door (the thin liquidity). 3. The "Domino Effect" of Stop Losses In a low OI environment, Stop Losses become the dominant force. Clustered Stops: Traders tend to put their "sell if I'm wrong" orders at obvious levels—right now, heavily clustered just below $90,000 and $88,500. The Cascade: In a high-liquidity market, market makers can absorb these stops. In a low-liquidity market (now), triggering the first cluster of stops ($90k) creates a sell-off that pushes the price down to the next cluster ($88.5k), which triggers those stops, pushing price lower. No Brakes: Without high Open Interest on the Short side, there are no Short Sellers taking profit (buying back) to slow the fall. The drop just keeps going until it hits a hard valuation floor (like the $84k miner level). Summary: Why "Boring" is Dangerous You essentially have a market that is fragile, not stable. High OI = A tug-of-war between giants. Hard to move price, but violent when it snaps. Low OI (Current) = A leaf in the wind. It takes very little volume to push the price around significantly because nobody is there to stop it. The bottom line: We aren't at risk of a massive "Short Squeeze" (up) because there are no shorts to squeeze. We are at risk of a "Liquidity Cascade" (down) because there are no buyers to catch the falling rocks. ***$84k is the hard floor for miners and liquidity***** This is the final nail in the coffin for the "immediate bottom" thesis. I pulled the MVRV Z-Score data for November 20, 2025, and the result is dangerously neutral. 1. The Number: 1.28 (Neutral) The current MVRV Z-Score is 1.28. What this means: We are in "No Man's Land." Oversold (Buy Zone): Historically, Bitcoin is "oversold" (a cyclical bottom) only when the Z-Score drops below 0.1 (the Green Zone). Overbought (Sell Zone): Tops happen when it shoots above 7.0 (the Red Zone). 2. Why "Neutral" is Dangerous Right Now Being at 1.28 when the price is falling is actually worse than being at -0.5. If we were at -0.5: You could confidently buy because the math says "Bitcoin is trading below its fair value." At 1.28: Bitcoin is still trading above its fair value (Realized Price). This means there is no "mathematical gravity" forcing the price back up yet. The market has room to fall further without becoming statistically irrational. 3. The "Real" Floor (Realized Price) The MVRV Z-Score tracks the gap between the Price ($91,600) and the Realized Price (the average cost basis of all coins). Implied Downside: For the Z-Score to hit 0 (the true "Generational Bottom"), the price would need to drop to meet the Realized Price. Where is that? Based on current data, the Realized Price is trending around $60,000 – $62,000. The Gap: The difference between current price ($91k) and the hard valuation floor ($62k) is the "Air Pocket" where liquidity cascades happen. Summary Verdict The MVRV Z-Score confirms that we are not yet oversold. The market has flushed out the leverage (OI), but it hasn't flushed out the valuation premium yet. We are currently in a "fair value correction," not a "panic bottom." *********What about the stablecoin supply ratio (SSR)?************* This is the most optimistic signal we have found so far. I analyzed the Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) and the liquidity situation for late November 2025. The data suggests that the "Dry Powder" is absolutely there. The buyers haven't run out of money; they are just refusing to spend it yet. Here is the breakdown of the "Sideline Cash" situation. 1. The SSR Signal: Deeply Bullish (Buying Power is at ATH) The Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) measures the ratio of the Bitcoin Supply against the supply of Stablecoins. The Signal: The SSR is currently at historical lows. What this means: The purchasing power of stablecoins relative to Bitcoin’s market cap is higher than it has been in years. Why? Bitcoin’s price dropped (lowering the numerator), but the supply of Stablecoins (USDT, USDC) has actually grown to record highs (over $300 Billion total market cap). Translation: There is enough "crypto-native cash" sitting on exchanges right now to buy a massive chunk of the Bitcoin supply. The ammo is loaded in the gun; the trigger just hasn't been pulled. 2. The "GENIUS Act" Effect (Why the Cash is Stuck) You might be wondering: "If there is so much cash, why isn't it buying?" The answer lies in the "GENIUS Act" (passed July 2025). The Shift: This legislation finally regulated stablecoins in the US, making them "safe" for institutional treasuries to hold. The Consequence: In previous cycles, idle stablecoins were "hot money" that burned a hole in traders' pockets—they felt unsafe holding USDT, so they panic-bought BTC. Now: Institutions are comfortable parking billions in regulated USDC/USDT yielding 4-5% (via DeFi or Treasuries). They are no longer forced to buy Bitcoin to escape stablecoin risk. They can afford to be patient. 3. Exchange Flows: The "Dam" is Full I checked the net flow of stablecoins to exchanges for November. The Trend: We are seeing Net Inflows (positive). Interpretation: Investors are not cashing out to fiat (USD banks). They are moving stablecoins onto exchanges (Binance, Coinbase), which is historically the step right before a massive purchase. The Stand-Off: These large wallets are sitting on the bid at $84,000 (the Miner Floor we discussed). They know the miners are desperate, so they are waiting for the miners to dump into their limit orders. Summary Verdict The "Dry Powder" thesis is the strongest bullish factor you have. Liquidity: Abundant. Positioning: On exchanges (ready to deploy). Sentiment: Patient (not panicking). The market is like a dry forest (low float) with a massive pile of gasoline sitting next to it (record stablecoin liquidity). It is just waiting for a match. Final Strategic View: You have a market with tight supply (Hash Ribbons recovery), fragile liquidity (Low Open Interest), but massive purchasing power (Low SSR) waiting at lower levels. This is a recipe for a "V-Shape" reversal: a sharp crash to $84k that gets bought up instantly. ****EXECUTIVE SUMMARY***** The "Supply Squeeze" thesis is not dead, but it is dormant. The market is currently in a "Liquidity Vacuum"—structurally tight supply met with fragile demand. Here is your battle plan for the coming weeks of November/December 2025. Executive Summary: The "Air Pocket" Protocol 1. The Core Thesis Status: Structurally Bullish, Technically Fragile. The Narrative: The "Supply Squeeze" (Halving + US Strategic Reserve lock-up) is real, but it has been overpowered by Miner Capitulation and a Demand Strike. The Danger: We are currently falling through a liquidity "Air Pocket" between $90k and $84k. 2. The "V-Shape" Trigger Event The likely scenario is not a slow grind up, but a sharp flush down followed by an immediate recovery.The Catalyst: Price breaks $90k $\rightarrow$ Triggers clustered Stop Losses $\rightarrow$ Longs get liquidated.The Bottom: Price hits $84,000 (Miner Breakeven + Institutional Buy Wall).The Reversal: The massive Stablecoin "Dry Powder" (SSR) finally deploys at this value level, creating a V-shape bounce. 3. Strategic Action Plan Immediate Action: Do not trust the $90k support level. It is a "fake floor" with no liquidity backing. The "Buy Zone": Set limit bids laddered in the $83,500 – $85,500 range. This is where the "Smart Money" is waiting. The Invalidations: Bull Case: If Price reclaims $96k on high volume, the correction is over (Demand returned early). Bear Case: If Price breaks $82k, the "Miner Wall" has failed, and we risk a drop to the Realized Price ($62k). Final Thought: The market is playing a game of Chicken. The institutions (Stablecoins) are staring down the Miners. The institutions will win, but they will likely force the price down to their preferred entry ($84k) before they step in. Patience is your edge
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by undersun
Long idea on BTC Entry: 90200 Stop: 88350 Buy zone: highlighted in yellow on the chart Take profit: not set, the position will be managed depending on market conditions This setup is based on the idea that the current pullback can act as an area for building a position. The stop is placed lower to avoid getting shaken out by normal volatility. No take profit is marked to keep flexibility and adjust the exit as the move develops. (Keep in mind. This is not a confirmed reversal and the trade is still aggressive. The 90200 level is not a major demand zone. It only aligns with a local volume cluster, so the setup carries additional risk.) Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Do not risk more than 2 percent of your account on any single trade. Position size should be based on proper risk management and money management. All trades involve risk and you are fully responsible for your own decisions.
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by TottiVincenzo
Bitcoin where do we go from here? Analysis/thoughts. Bitcoin is now firmly in a bear market, despite ongoing debate in the media. The price is well below its 200 EMA, and even positive news is failing to move the market—clear signs of bearish sentiment and changing market psychology. Technical analysis shows that major support levels have already been broken. The critical 91k and 90k levels have not held, making further declines toward 80k, 67k, 54k, and even 47k likely. The previous cycle high at 62k may present strong buying opportunities, but not before significant downside risk is realized. ETF outflows continue to weigh on the price, while miners are selling to build cash reserves ahead of the next halving and to invest in new mining equipment—a trend largely overlooked in mainstream coverage. Momentum indicators support the bearish outlook. RSI remains in a strong downtrend, indicating further room to fall, while NUPL is also dropping, consistent with a shift toward market fear. Should this continue, sub-50k levels are likely. While long positions are rising (typical after sharp drops), the increase in shorts is not yet significant enough to suggest an imminent squeeze. Declining trading volume confirms that bears are in control, and "dead cat bounces" are likely as Bitcoin seeks support for the next cycle. On the macro front, the US economy remains unstable. Despite positive earnings from Nvidia, employment data is mixed, and 2026 could prove challenging as tariff impacts are fully absorbed. Looser monetary policy could weaken the US dollar, making imports more expensive and fueling inflation. While Bitcoin may eventually benefit as a hedge, the four-year cycle and halving psychology remain dominant, suggesting a prolonged bear phase until a new market narrative emerges—potentially influenced by the outcome of the next US presidential election and inevitable fallout due to reported conflicts of interest, which will likely result in policy changes and new regulations and legislation. My outlook: expect further declines, manage risk with tight stop losses and disciplined profit-taking, and be prepared for additional volatility. Patience and liquidity will be critical as Bitcoin searches for a bottom, possibly below 40k. Take profits where possible, and avoid getting trapped in false rallies. NFA.
KRAKEN:BTCUSDShort
by Discombobulate1
Bitcoin. Neochanneling vision practice from November 20, 2025.Analysis of the probable movement of BTC using the psycho-technology of neochanneling. On October 22, 2025, we published an update stating that Bitcoin still had a high probability of continuing its upward movement within a forming “bull flag” pattern. At the same time, it was noted that this pattern could soon be broken by a manipulative move, after which Bitcoin would turn downward. As of November 20, we see the following: Bitcoin indeed continued to rise — from 108K to 116K — and then corrected by more than 15%. In this video, I share additional information from the viewing session of Bitcoin and its probabilistic movement. The current target zone in one of the scenarios is around 80K. 22 октября 2025 года мы публиковали информацию о том, что у биткоина с высокой вероятностью сохраняется возможность дальнейшего роста в рамках сформированной фигуры «бычий флаг». При этом отмечалось, что эта фигура может быть разрушена в ближайшее время за счёт манипулятивного движения, после которого биткоин развернётся вниз. По факту, на 20 ноября мы видим следующее: биткоин действительно продолжил рост — от 108 до 116 тысяч, а затем скорректировался более чем на 15%. В этом видео — дополнительная информация по просмотру биткоина и вероятностному сценарию дальнейшего движения. Текущая целевая зона по одному из сценариев — район 80 тысяч.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by SabaInvestments
Tightening liquidity suppresses risky assets. Negative policy factors: Fed Chair Powell clearly stated that "interest rates will remain high for a longer period", causing expectations of rate cuts to plummet; the core PCE inflation rate in the US is above the 2% target, completely dashing expectations of loose liquidity. Cross-market correlation: The 30-day correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq is 0.78. U.S. technology stocks are under pressure and falling, and high-risk assets are collectively being sold off, further spreading to the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin trading strategy sell：94000-93000 tp:92000-91000-90000 sl：95000
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Thorne-
BTC 4hr chartT.A explained - BackSide (BS) FrontSide (FS) Inverse BS (Inv.BS) Inverse FS (Inv.FS) BS & FS levels are expected support when dashed lines, tested when dotted and resistance when solid lines. The inverse is true for the Inv. BS Inv. FS levels, they are resistance as dashed lines, tested as dotted and support as solid lines. Monthly timeframe is color pink weekly grey daily is red 4hr is orange 1hr is yellow 15min is blue 5min is green if they are shown. strength favors the higher timeframe. 2x dotted levels are origin levels where trends have or will originate. When trends break, price will target the origin of the trend. its math, when the trend breaks, the vertex breaks too so the higher timeframe level/trend that breaks, the more volatility there could be as strength in the orders flow in to fuel the move.
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by StudyGuideTA
BTCUSD 9/30/2025As you can see most recently, Price has encountered a Weekly Bearish expansion. Since then, we can see Price is producing a Bullish Retracement, that is on the cusp of creating Bullish Structure (ABCD Correction) inside of this Bearish expansion. Once Price encounters a Higher High here in this Weekly Bullish Retracement, we then will see Price breakdown to encounter the Bearish Continuation from its overall move. Do you see what I see?? Let's see what Price does... _SnipeGoat_ _TheeCandleReadingGURU_ #PriceAction #MarketStructure #TechnicalAnalysis #Bearish #Bullish #Bitcoin #Crypto #BTCUSD #Forex #NakedChartReader #ZEROindicators #PreciseLevels #ProperTiming #PerfectDirection #ScalpingTrader #IntradayTrader #DayTrader #SwingTrader #PositionalTrader #HighLevelTrader #MambaMentality #GodMode #UltraInstinct #TheeBibleStrategy
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by TheeSnipeGoat
Inverted correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 2025There have been unusual behaviors between the NQ and BTC, which are normally highly correlated assets. However, this year the April dump on the NQ pushed the price down to the Q2 2024 low and came very close to the overall 2024 low — it missed it by only about 300 points. Bitcoin, on the other hand, wasn’t even close to its Q2 2024 low: the price dropped to $74,500, while the Q2 low sits at the $49,000 level. On the flip side, the current 6-month candle on the NQ is still strongly bullish (as of November 20, 2025), while BTC’s 6-month candle is already strongly bearish. It opened at $107,000, and yesterday’s low (November 19) was $88,500 — meaning it would take a significant move for Bitcoin to close the half-year candle in the green, especially with less than six weeks left until the end of the year. I’m very curious to see how the year closes out. Personally, I remain on the bearish side and have been shorting the market since $124,500 on BTC, adding to the position again at $115,500 and $107,300. Greetings to all.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by CryptoFish71
BTC: 2021 playbook. People expect a V shape bounce, when I think the odds favor more of a 2021 type of long correction (death cross swing). Reason being, the break of a strong momentum log trend, lower lows in BTC/SPX. If we are on the bottom --> it took 2 months , before next break out. (20 May -> 20 July). I think most momentum stocks, like NASDAQ:PLTR , NASDAQ:HOOD should lose their momentum and form tops (people who didnt sell the top, should take profit next time it's at ATH). Stage cycle. BTC is a risk on indicator. TVC:DXY dollar has broke out, indicating demand for cash. //November is usually a strong month. Good news - stocks drop is a sign of top.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by citsvar
BTC Technical Outlook and Key Levels to WatchBitcoin Market Update: Technical Outlook and Key Levels to Watch Bitcoin has pulled back sharply from its 2025 all-time high of approximately $126,500, shedding more than 28% in its current bearish retracement. This decline has led many market participants to ask the critical question: What comes next for investors and traders? In line with the previous analysis, Bitcoin has already broken its first ascending trend line and is now approaching another major trend line that has been in play since October 2023. This level is proving to be an important structural area on the chart. Key Technical Levels 1. Immediate Support — $91,000 Zone Bitcoin is currently sitting on the $91,000 support area. This level remains the most immediate zone holding the market from further decline. If buyers maintain control here, a short-term bounce is possible. A confirmed break below this zone increases the likelihood of deeper corrective movement. 2. Secondary Support — $85,000 Zone Should the $91,000 support fail to hold, the next area of interest lies around $85,000. This level aligns with a major ascending trend line, creating a notable confluence zone, which historically strengthens the probability of a reaction. 3. Downside Risk — $74,000 Zone (Worst-Case Scenario) If the confluence around $85,000 breaks decisively, Bitcoin could slide towards the $74,000 region ( 1st ATH of 2024) This represents a deeper structural correction and would signal a significant weakening of bullish momentum. Market Outlook The current market environment reflects elevated volatility and wide price swings, typical of corrective phases. While long-term fundamentals remain intact for many investors, the short-term technical structure suggests caution. This period can be described as a high-risk phase for crypto participants. Managing exposure carefully, respecting stop losses, and avoiding emotional decision-making are essential until clearer market strength appears.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by ForexClinik