BTCETH.P trade ideas
Bitcoin Rally Fades as Prices Nosedive. End of Bullish Cycle?Technical analysis will tell you that maybe it’s time for a pullback. But then again, this is crypto. It’s the wild west, where predictions are polite suggestions at best. Here’s what we know about where we are.
📉 Bitcoin Takes a Breather
Bitcoin BITSTAMP:BTCUSD started the week on a quieter note, trading mostly sideways while altcoins decided to explore the downside a little more aggressively. After hitting a record high of $124,500 in mid-August , the world’s largest cryptocurrency has pulled back roughly 13%, currently hovering between $108,000 and $110,000.
That’s still a big number, but the market mood has shifted from full-blown euphoria to cautious watching. And the question on everyone’s mind? Did we just top out or is there more room to the upside?
🏛️ Politics, Tariffs, and Bitcoin’s Rally
Crypto’s recent run-up didn’t happen in a vacuum. After the April dip – triggered by President Donald Trump’s sweeping global tariff announcements – Bitcoin bounced back hard.
Traders quickly shrugged off the policy shock, betting that a crypto-friendly administration would eventually be good for business.
And they weren’t wrong. Since late 2024, Bitcoin and co have been riding a bullish wave fueled by increased Treasury interest, ETF inflows, and a broader perception that digital assets are now mainstream.
But with prices off their August highs , the question is whether the market still has the energy to keep pushing… or if gravity is about to kick in.
📐 Technical Check: Bulls, Bears, and Battle Lines
Let’s talk charts. At current levels, Bitcoin is sitting right in the middle of its long-term ascending channel – a key battleground between bulls and bears.
1️⃣ Upside scenario : If Bitcoin can hold the line around current prices, the structure could accumulate to a potential breakout toward fresh highs. A sustained move above $112,000 could flip short-term momentum back in favor of the bulls.
2️⃣ Trip south scenario : If the near-term support fails, there’s potential for $98,500 as the bears' next target. It’s a previous bottom hit on June 22 .
3️⃣ Deep south scenario : $92,000 could become the next support as it would represent the fourth inflection point of the ascending channel’s lower boundary. That is, if prices continue to drift lower at the same steady pace.
4️⃣ Really deep south scenario : A steeper correction could drag Bitcoin all the way back to $75,000 – the key level last touched on April 7 (yes, it was the tariff mayhem). It’s the dip, which kicked off the current bull cycle so it’s something of a big deal.
Adding to the caution, both the 50-day and 100-day moving averages are now sitting above current prices, suggesting that the upward momentum has cooled – at least for now.
🔄 The Seasonal Side of Crypto
Bitcoin’s price history has a rhythm, and for better or worse, crypto dances to seasonal vibes. Historically, late summer and early fall tend to bring volatility spikes – and often, corrections – as trading volumes thin out and liquidity gets patchy.
The OG token isn’t the only one feeling the heat. Ether BITSTAMP:ETHUSD – which hit a record high of just under $5,000 on August 24 – has slipped roughly 11%. This isn’t necessarily a bad thing; corrections can reset overheated conditions and shake out weak hands (not you, diamond hands) before another leg higher.
Still, with macro uncertainty looming, traders should expect choppier price action heading into the final quarter of 2025.
📖 Technical Analysis: What to Make of It
Technical analysis is built on one key assumption: history repeats itself. Traders look for continuation patterns , support and resistance levels, and indicators like moving averages to predict future price moves.
But technical analysis doesn’t account for surprises (unless you go full meta and add the surprises to the natural order of events). Sudden regulatory actions, geopolitical shocks, or even a single whale unloading a massive position can blow up the cleanest technical setups.
✏️ Bottom Line
The next few weeks will be key. If Bitcoin can reclaim momentum and punch above $112,000, the bulls could get back in control. But if we slide through $100,000 and lose $92,000, the conversation may shift toward deeper corrections and range trading, with a long-term bear target of $75,000.
In the bigger picture, this pullback could just be part of Bitcoin’s usual rhythm: rally, correct, consolidate, repeat.
Still, Bitcoin ETFs are booming and companies continue to load up on the crypto and jam it in their treasuries while the White House is working out crypto-friendly legislations.
🏎️💨 Fast fact : Bitcoin has lost 80% of its value not once or twice but four times, only to recoup the losses and come back roaring to a new all-time high. What would an 80% drop look like? Going from $124,500 to $24,000.
Off to you : WAGMI? Or NGMI? Share your thoughts in the comments!
$BTC bounced to the 112K zone as expected, with even a shotCRYPTOCAP:BTC bounced to the 112K zone as expected, with even a shot at 115K possible, but I’m still holding my short from 116K. If we revisit my entry area, I’ll look to add more. For now, I’m staying in the trade and will share updates if anything changes. Targets remain 100K → 95K → 90K.
BTC/USDShort term (daily): There is a chance of a rebound as the stochastic indicator shows a reversal from oversold.
Medium term: The trend is still likely to be sideways to bearish as long as the price cannot break above $115,000 - $120,000.
Strategy:
Aggressive traders can try buying on dips in the $108k - $110k support area with a target of $115k.
Conservative traders should wait for confirmation of a breakout above $120k for a safer long entry.
Bitcoin All Time Highs Forecasted DateWas just working on a new study showing the number of months and days between prior ATH's for Bitcoin has typically been between 46-49 months or 1400 to 1492 days as shown in the Green boxes.
Based on the 2017 cycle, that puts this cycle ATH around November 1st 2025.
So we don't have much time if this cycle is going to play out like prior ones.
Also global liquidity is slowing down, and BTC is deviating from following M2 Money Supply.
However, the daily cycle low is signaling a local bottom is in here.
What do you think?
CautionThe Bulls recently had a bullish breakout on the daily which is encountering resistance at the 21 EMA on the daily. However, last candle on the weekly brought in a bearish MACD(Chris Moody) on the weekly chart. Bulls be careful the bears are still lurking. Bulls need price to overcome 108K on the weekly. Thank you for your time
BTCUSD 4h short-term📊 Trend and structure
• You can see the price output from the downward channel (orange trend lines). This is a signal of a potential change of trend.
• The price currently oscillates around USD 112,200, i.e. above several key supports (109,000 - 111,000).
• The nearest strong resistance is around 113,450 - 114,955 USD (marked with green lines and average SMA).
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📈 indicators
• MacD: MacD (blue) line pierces above the signal (orange) and the histogram grows in the plus → it is a growth signal.
• RSI: ~ 60, i.e. it grows, but is not yet entering the purchase zone (> 70). There is still room for increases.
• SMA:
• Price has pierced short -term medium (red and green lines, ~ 109–112k), which works as support.
• The next key test is SMA around $ 114,955 - a puncture could open the road to 116–118k.
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🔑 key levels
• Support:
• 111.014
• 109.023
• 107.580
• resistance:
• 113,450
• 114,955
• 116,000+
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📝 Summary
• short -term (4h) - signals are upward: breaking from the downward channel, positive MacD, RSI is growing healthy.
• Bull scenario: Breaking above 114,955 opens the way to 116–118k.
• Bear scenario: unsuccessful puncture 113,450/115K → possible retest support at 111K and 109k.
“BTCUSD Road to 120K – But Watch the Trap Ahead!”“BTCUSD 🚀 Road to 120K – But Watch the Trap Ahead!”
Bitcoin has shown strong momentum after a liquidity sweep around 108,000, signaling that big players collected orders before pushing price higher. This is a common smart money concept (SMC) move where liquidity is grabbed before the next leg.
🔑 Key Points to Note:
Previous Support Flip: Market reclaimed the broken support, turning it into a base for continuation.
Upside Target: The next major resistance zone is 120,000 – 123,000, where sellers are likely to step in.
Market Behavior: Price often sweeps liquidity before testing strong resistance, so patience is key.
Potential Pullback: Once resistance is tapped, a correction may follow as profit-taking starts.
📌 Educational Takeaway: Always watch how price reacts at liquidity zones and key resistance points. These levels often decide whether the trend will continue or reverse.
📈 For now, short-term bias = bullish toward 120,000, but be cautious for a possible rejection at that zone.
Has Bitcoin Reached It's Four-Year Cycle Top?Why Bitcoin Might Have Reached Its Four-Year Cycle Top
Historical Pattern: Bitcoin's four-year cycle often peaks around halving events, influencing supply and price dynamics.
MACD Signal: The primary signal indicator in the upper panel remains in a bullish position, with no bearish cross, indicating ongoing upward momentum.
Wave 3 Peak: The current print high of 125,417 USD marks the crest of Cycle Degree 3, the strongest wave in an impulse sequence.
Elliott Wave Count Analysis
Current Position: The chart labels the all-time print high of the Cycle Degree 3 high at 125,417.
Wave 4 Expectation: A corrective wave 4 decline is anticipated, but it must remain above the wave one high of 69,000 USD to uphold the Elliott Wave structure.
Wave 5 Potential: If wave 4 holds above 69,000 USD, a subsequent wave 5 could drive prices far higher, completing a larger Super Cycle degree wave I.
Bullish Posture and Key Levels
Primary Signal Indicator: The long-term bullish posture based on the MACD remains intact, with the indicator staying bullish until a monthly close shows the fast-moving average crossing and closing below the slow-moving average.
Support Level: Maintaining above 69,000 USD during any wave 4 pullback is crucial for the long-term bullish posture to persist and conform with the current wave count analysis.
Rejection from the 112 zone or a breakout of resistance?It’s true that Bitcoin has turned bullish in the lower cycle for a few hours, but the overall trend is still bearish, so taking a long position isn’t logical. Traders can either enter with a trigger since it’s a key resistance, or wait until this resistance is decisively broken.
BTC TA BITSTAMP:BTCUSD has now completed a full Elliott 8-wave fractal sequence on the daily chart. Importantly, we are seeing bullish divergence on both the CMF and CCI, while the bull flag measured move aligns directly with the 141.4%–161.8% Fibonacci extension taken from Wave 5 to the pullback Wave C.
Volume-based confirmation is present, with OBV and ADL both moving in agreement, signalling accumulation and directional consistency. Current resistance is at 124,517, with upside Fibonacci targets projected in the 144–149k region.
For confirmation, traders should watch closely for breaks of the symmetrical triangles forming inside both the CCI and CMF, these will provide early signals of trend continuation or reversal. Once momentum confirmation is seen, price action itself can be used as the final trigger.
Bitcoin – Between Equilibrium and Transcendence.⊣
⟁ BTC/USD – BINANCE – (CHART: 1M) – (Sep 03, 2025).
◇ Analysis Price: $111,148.95.
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⨀ I. Temporal Axis – Strategic Interval – (1M):
▦ EMA90 – $44,745.16:
∴ Deep-cycle moving average, historically preserved through bull markets;
∴ Distance buffer ≈ +$66.40K (+59.7%) above EMA90;
∴ No tests since the 2020 breakout -> macro trend intact.
✴️ Conclusion: EMA90 = deep structural anchor (bullish fortress intact).
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▦ SMA50 – $53,419.17:
∴ Primary macro floor for post-halving cycles;
∴ Price stands +$57.73K (+51.9%) above this line;
∴ First high-timeframe defense in a major correction.
✴️ Conclusion: SMA50 = medium-term guardian support.
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▦ SMA100 – $33,457.05:
∴ Extreme long-term anchor, rarely approached outside bear capitulations;
∴ Cushion +$77.69K (+69.9%) above;
∴ “Black-swan” only in current cycle context.
✴️ Conclusion: SMA100 = last-resort macro base.
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▦ BB (21 ,2) - (Midline $84,111.14 / Upper $125,959.23 / Lower $42,263.04):
∴ Price rides the upper regime, sitting ~13.3% below the upper band (headroom ≈ $14.81K);
∴ Distance to midline (equilibrium) ≈ $27.04K (+24.3%) -> strong cushion;
∴ Bands are widened -> volatility expansion phase of the macro trend.
✴️ Conclusion: BB = mature expansion; (midline $84.1K) is the balance axis.
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▦ MACD (50, 90) - (Line 947.03 / Signal 17,045.04 / Histogram 16,098.01):
∴ Long-cycle configuration filters noise and tracks halving waves;
∴ Histogram magnitude strong -> impulse still alive at the macro scale;
∴ No imminent bearish crossover on this slow setting; trend health preserved.
✴️ Conclusion: MACD = bullish regime with durable momentum.
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🜎 Strategic Insight – Technical Oracle:
∴ Structure: Price is well above all macro bases (SMA50 $53.4K, EMA90 $44.7K, SMA100 $33.5K) and operating in the upper Bollinger regime; (midline $84.1K) marks the structural equilibrium;
∴ Momentum - (single pillar): MACD (50, 90) remains decisively positive, consistent with a continuing bull cycle;
∴ Risk rails: Upside trigger = sustained push toward/through ($125.96K - BB-upper); downside mean-reversion rails = ($99–$84K - prior clusters/BB mid).
✴️ Conclusion: The monthly chart remains Bullish-Structural and in mature expansion. As long as Bitcoin holds above the (BB midline ~$84.1K), the macro up-cycle stays intact; clearance toward ($126K) would reopen upside discovery.
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𓂀 Stoic-Structural Interpretation:
✦ Structure of Trend:
∴ The price hovers far above the macro fortresses (SMA50 $53.4K, EMA90 $44.7K, SMA100 $33.5K). These remain untouched, signaling the structure’s resilience;
∴ Bollinger (midline at $84.1K) is the true axis of equilibrium: as long as it holds, the market breathes in the upper realm of expansion;
∴ The upper Bollinger bound ($125.9K) is not yet pierced, leaving the cycle suspended between present strength and future compression.
✦ Momentum of Will:
∴ The MACD (50, 90), slow and deliberate, projects a force aligned with the long halving waves: histogram positive, crossover intact, momentum unfaltering;
∴ The market’s will remains bent toward continuation, though each candle at this altitude tests the resolve of buyers;
∴ Stoic principle: strength endures until proven otherwise; momentum persists until equilibrium demands balance.
✦ Flow of Capital:
∴ Wide Bollinger bands whisper volatility unchained, inviting both euphoria and caution; liquidity expands but seeks its balance at the ($84.1K mid);
∴ Capital rotates but does not abandon the structure; the exodus of liquidity is absent from the long frame;
∴ The inflow of discipline dominates - patience governs capital flows.
✦ Interpretation of Fate:
∴ Above ($125.9K) = release into new discovery, fate embraces uncharted peaks;
∴ Between ($99K and $84K) = mean-reversion crucible, where structure is tested but not destroyed;
∴ Below ($84K) = stoic descent, a return toward (SMA50 / EMA90) bastions.
✴️ Conclusion: The monthly essence is Bullish-Structural, with fate aligned to the continuation of expansion. Yet, Stoicism reminds: no trend ascends without pause; ($84.1K) is the sacred balance, ($125.9K) the gate to transcendence.
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· Cryptorvm Dominvs · MAGISTER ARCANVM · Vox Primordialis ·
· Dominivm Cardo Gyratio Omnivm · Silence precedes the next force. Structure is sacred ·
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BTCUSD 4H Chart Analysis: Potential Reversal and Key LevelsBTCUSD 4H Chart Analysis: Potential Reversal and Key Levels
Prior Bearish Dominance: BTC was in a significant bearish move from mid-August, dropping from highs around 123K and forming a clear descending channel (red shaded area). This bearish trend was identified as "still in control," with caution advised for price action near the 114K level, which acted as a resistance point for much of the late August period.
Double Bottom Reversal: A crucial bullish reversal pattern, a "Double Bottom" (or W-pattern), has formed at the end of August, with bottoms around the 107K-108K level. This pattern signals a potential exhaustion of the downtrend and a shift in momentum towards the upside, establishing "Latest Support 108K."
Critical Support & Breakout: Following the Double Bottom, the price has broken above its neckline, establishing "Current Support Near 110K." This 110K level is identified as a key breakout point for the W-pattern. Trade near this trendline support and the 110K W-pattern breakout level is well-aligned with the chart’s indication of a nascent up-trend and strong support. The market is currently trading just above this support.
Upcoming Resistance & Targets: The immediate hurdle for BTC is "Current Resistance 114K." A successful break and sustain above this level would confirm stronger bullish momentum. The chart projects further upside towards the "118K to 120K level," which is highlighted as a significant area to be watchful of, representing a previous resistance zone from mid-August.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this chart is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Trading and investing involve substantial risk and are not suitable for every investor. You should carefully consider your financial situation and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The creator of this chart does not guarantee any specific outcome or profit and is not responsible for any losses incurred as a result of using this information. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Use this information at your own risk. This chart has been created for my own improvement in Trading and Investment Analysis. Please do your own analysis before any investments.
Bitcoin should see minor relief to 114,228$ before bearish drop!I noticed this much earlier than I should have reported on it, but the details are in the title and were the arrows lead.
This is a minor bullish relief and should be nothing of concern to the bears, just don't get liquidated by this minor rise.
The alts may see much higher rises proportionately but that is also nothing of concern as the SPX is looking very flat this week and even more so bearish.
Bitcoin Price at a Crossroads: Fibonacci Defines the Next MoveBitcoin is testing a critical technical juncture. A rejection at the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement resistance is likely to catalyze a significant corrective move. The primary downside target for such a bearish reversal is the key 0.618 Fibonacci support level. A break below this support would signal a deeper retracement of the prior trend.