Hammer spotted, rebound?Spotted two consecutive hammer candles — a short-term rebound is on the table.
If price gets rejected at $100,000, the bears remain firmly in control.
If price can break and hold above
$100,000, then the bulls may stage a comeback and push toward the next resistance at $111,000.
Trade ideas
BTC Technical Outlook and Key Levels to WatchBitcoin Market Update: Technical Outlook and Key Levels to Watch
Bitcoin has pulled back sharply from its 2025 all-time high of approximately $126,500, shedding more than 28% in its current bearish retracement. This decline has led many market participants to ask the critical question: What comes next for investors and traders?
In line with the previous analysis, Bitcoin has already broken its first ascending trend line and is now approaching another major trend line that has been in play since October 2023. This level is proving to be an important structural area on the chart.
Key Technical Levels
1. Immediate Support — $91,000 Zone
Bitcoin is currently sitting on the $91,000 support area. This level remains the most immediate zone holding the market from further decline.
If buyers maintain control here, a short-term bounce is possible.
A confirmed break below this zone increases the likelihood of deeper corrective movement.
2. Secondary Support — $85,000 Zone
Should the $91,000 support fail to hold, the next area of interest lies around $85,000.
This level aligns with a major ascending trend line, creating a notable confluence zone, which historically strengthens the probability of a reaction.
3. Downside Risk — $74,000 Zone (Worst-Case Scenario)
If the confluence around $85,000 breaks decisively, Bitcoin could slide towards the $74,000 region ( 1st ATH of 2024)
This represents a deeper structural correction and would signal a significant weakening of bullish momentum.
Market Outlook
The current market environment reflects elevated volatility and wide price swings, typical of corrective phases. While long-term fundamentals remain intact for many investors, the short-term technical structure suggests caution.
This period can be described as a high-risk phase for crypto participants. Managing exposure carefully, respecting stop losses, and avoiding emotional decision-making are essential until clearer market strength appears.
The 2025 structure currently matches ~85% of the 2022 pre-bear Mhistorically BTC often touches EMA89 then retests EMA55 before a bear market and right now the chart structure looks similar to past cycle tops
Scenario A – Reclaim EMA55 (Bullish Recovery)
Chance: ~35%
Must close multiple weekly candles above EMA55
Would signal the bull trend is still intact
Correction becomes similar to 2013/2017 mid-cycle crash
Bullish targets:
$110k
$125k
$135k final blow-off
=============================
Scenario B – Rejection at EMA55 → Full Bear Market
Chance: ~65%
This is the historically normal outcome.
If BTC:
fails to reclaim the EMA55,
AND closes weekly candles below EMA89 →
Then this confirms a macro trend reversal.
Bearish targets (based on past cycles):
First major support: $72k–76k
Cycle bottom zone: $55k–63k
Extreme wick target (like 2020 crash): $48k (low probability)
Bitcoin on a roller coaster: is 2026 ready for a new high?On November 18, BTCUSD fell by about 29% — from a peak of around $126,000 to ~ $89,000 . The fall in Bitcoin was due to a combination of factors: after the record high, many investors took profits, money flowed out of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (spot ETFs), and caution set in on global markets, with tech stocks and AI companies falling. The sharp price fluctuations triggered forced closures of leveraged trades, which exacerbated the decline, while altcoins fell even faster and drained liquidity from the market — as a result, there were more sellers than buyers, and the price fell even further.
Five reasons to expect a new BTCUSD impulse in 2026:
Inflows into spot ETFs. If funds start actively buying BTC on the spot market again, this will generate stable demand from large players.
The halving effect. Fewer new coins are being mined, but demand remains high, which will eventually push the price up.
A more dovish Fed. Lower rates → more liquidity → investors are more willing to take on risk assets, including BTC.
Clear rules and business acceptance. Clear regulation and integration with banks/companies simplify entry for mass investors.
Infrastructure development. L2/Lightning, convenient custody, and new on-chain use cases make BTC more useful — demand is growing.
FreshForex analysts note that in 2026, Bitcoin's dynamics will largely depend on three factors: capital inflows into spot ETFs, the general “risk-on/risk-off” regime against the backdrop of Fed decisions, and key statements from regulators about the crypto market. Investors are advised to maintain a strict risk management system and focus on the macroeconomic calendar.
btcusdThis pattern is also very similar to the 5 waves at the end of an uptrend, which makes it a little difficult to identify for further guidance.
Our previous analysis was based on the assumption that a running correction was taking place. However, this does not seem to be the case and Bitcoin is increasing its price with low volume in the indicators, which will probably stop a decline towards lower levels in the 90, 80 and 70 ranges in the next few months and gain enough momentum to continue.
BTC breaks long term trend lineLong time member, but haven't published much. Most miss the fact that BTC trades like clock work, on a reliable 4 year halving cycle. Tops have been Nov, Dec, Nov and now possibly Oct. Now it has broken a very long term (since early 2013) trendline. I will post more of my recent charts soon.
Weak Recovery for BTCUSDBTC showed a trend of weak oscillatory recovery after hitting a low today. The price found support after breaking below the critical level of 90,000; however, the market remained in an extreme state of panic, which restricted the overall strength of the rebound.
From a technical perspective, the 85,000 - 90,000 range serves as a strong support zone, corresponding to the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement level. The price has demonstrated support near 89,000 today. On the flip side, the key resistance is concentrated in the 93,500 - 94,200 range. A breakout above this range may lead the price to test 95,000 subsequently, and if it can breach 95,000, it is expected to further move towards and challenge the 96,000 - 96,700 range.
Sell 93,500 - 94,000
SL 94,500
TP 92,000 - 91,500 - 91,000
Buy 89,500 - 90,000
SL 88,500
TP 92,500 - 93,000 - 93,500
BTC — Original Distribution Still UnfinishedBTC continues to move inside unfinished structure. Risk tone is neutral and overnight flows were thin, leaving the market waiting for direction from today’s U.S. releases. The only event with enough weight to shift risk appetite is the FOMC Minutes later today.
On the chart, BTC has rejected the original bullish distribution gap at 88,804.64 for several sessions. That gap remains unclosed, which signals unfinished architecture rather than trend continuation. Price is still confined within Monday’s range between 91,158 and 95,950, forming a clean mid-range compression. Nothing in this structure confirms resolution yet.
Market Structure Mapping views this compression as a neutral regime: the market is balancing, not trending. The failure to close the distribution zone shows the prior move left imbalance behind, and markets generally rebalance before committing to a new leg. Retail sees “sideways.” Professionals see preparation.
The non-obvious point: this isn’t hesitation; it’s the market restoring balance before revealing intent.
For operators, the approach is straightforward. Let New York volatility clear the noise. Structural clarity only appears once price resolves above 95,950 or below 91,158. Anything before that is positioning, not direction.
— CORE5DAN
Institutional Logic. Modern Technology. Real Freedom.
$BTCUSD Long Term chartBITSTAMP:BTCUSD : This is one possible long term count. The 2017-2018 top-bottom marked a high degree Wave {1}, {2}. We've been in Wave {3} since that bottom.
The 2021-2022 top-bottom completed Wave and . Wave started from that bottom.
The $126K top has a 1.618 Fib ratio with Wave . If Wave topped here, then Wave cannot drop below Wave top, which is $69K. The yellow trend line may be the place to mark Wave , which is around $78K. A drop to $78K would mark a 40% pullback.
However, Wave = 1.618 Wave is a minimum length for Wave . I do expect Wave to go higher.
The channel is still holding. $89K area could be the bottom. If that's the case, Wave has not completed yet.
My position
I'm long. If BTC recovers, I'd be looking to de-risk but won't sell all. If BTC drops to $78K area, I will add.
BTC 1M – Clean Idea + Buy Zone (Multi-TF Confluence)BTC continues to respect a long-term ascending channel on the 1M timeframe.
Price has broken below the mid-channel and is now gliding toward major support.
What makes this setup especially important:
the buy zones on the 1M, 1D, and 4H charts are all converging in the same area.
This type of multi-timeframe alignment rarely happens and often marks major reversal zones.
⸻
🟢 Buy Zone (Macro)
$78,000 – $85,000
• Bottom of the 1M ascending channel
• Strong historical demand
• Long-term accumulation zone
• Lines up closely with 1D and 4H buy zones
• High-probability multi-month swing level
⸻
🎯 Target Zone (Macro)
$118,000 – $130,000
• Mid–upper channel resistance
• Prior monthly rejection area
• Strong supply zone
⸻
🧭 Multi-TF Summary
BTC remains structurally bullish on the macro timeframe, but near-term weakness is sending price into the best accumulation region seen in months.
What’s notable:
🔥 Multi-Timeframe Buy-Zone Confluence
• 1M Buy Zone: $78K–$85K
• 1D Buy Zone: $89.5K–$92K
• 4H Buy Zone: $88K–$89.5K
These zones are stacked tightly together, signaling:
• Higher probability of a strong bounce
• Cleaner risk-reward
• Strong institutional accumulation region
• Potential for a major reversal once BTC hits lower support
A move into the macro zone should align closely with the final retests on the 1D and 4H channels.
Invalidation: Monthly close below $76,000.
BTC 1D – Clean Idea + Buy ZoneBTC continues to trade inside a well-defined descending channel on the 1D timeframe.
Price is drifting toward the lower boundary, and momentum remains weak but controlled.
Over the next several days, BTC may retest the channel bottom before any meaningful reversal attempt.
⸻
🟢 Buy Zone
$89,500 – $92,000
• Bottom of the daily channel
• Local demand zone
• Historically strong reaction area
• Best risk–reward zone before potential mid-channel bounce
⸻
🎯 Target Zone
$98,000 – $100,000
• Mid-channel resistance
• Prior rejection area
• Short-term supply zone
⸻
🧭 Summary
BTC remains in a structured downtrend but is approaching a high-probability bounce area.
A reaction from the buy zone could push price back toward $98–100K.
Invalidation: Daily close below $89,000.
Wondering Where Bitcoin’s Drop Ends — and Where Smart Money StarIf you’re wondering where Bitcoin’s decline is likely to end — and where real buying pressure begins — this analysis will help you see the bigger picture.
I’ve been trading since 2003, specializing in Elliott Waves and Harmonic Patterns, and over the years I've refined a system that combines price action, market structure, and high-probability reversal zones.
More than 80% of my published trading ideas have been accurate, which you can easily verify on my profile.
In this BTCUSD setup, I used a blend of technical analysis, pattern recognition, Elliott Wave structure, and harmonic confluence to identify the key level where Bitcoin is likely to complete its corrective phase before the next bullish leg begins.
If this analysis resonates with you, feel free to repost, leave a comment, or support the idea.
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