BITCOIN IS IN A TRIANGLE UNTIL THE END OF 2025: EVERYTHING WILL 📣 Hello everyone!
I bring to your attention my medium-term view until the end of 2025 within the framework of this Bitcoin trading idea solely from the point of view of TA and my understanding of the chart.
🔹 Briefly and to the point:
1️⃣ I believe that Bitcoin's growth in October will be limited and right now the price is already close to local highs.
2️⃣ I expect an unexpected, disappointing drop in the BTC price after the recent ATN upgrade to $125,000 at the beginning of the month.
3. Anyone who flew into a long breakout will be thrown out of the market, many will believe in the beginning of a bear market and prematurely open short positions.
4️⃣ In November-December, I expect another small wave of growth, which will push the price of BTC a little over $130,000
5️⃣ I expect big events for Bitcoin in Q1 2026, but more on that later.
That's all for today, I wish you good luck in making independent trading decisions and making a profit. Please analyze the information you receive from me, always think only with your head!
Goodbye! ✊
Trade ideas
TCUSD – Weekly Gann ViewBTCUSD – Weekly Gann View 📊
We are in the 8th straight week of decline, and BTC is now sitting at an important time–price square zone on the weekly chart.
Next week looks critical – any sustained up-move from this level can push price towards the next Gann double arc region near 95,000.
Bitcoin Rejects $90K Resistance as Market Shifts to CautionBitcoin on the 4H timeframe has clearly rejected the $90,000 resistance zone after multiple attempts to break through. The move failed to create a new higher high, yet price also hasn’t broken the previous lower low — signaling a temporary indecision phase but with bearish pressure dominating.
At the moment, the structure is leaning toward a possible double-bottom setup around the $80,500 zone. This area is the next critical demand level to watch. If BTC fails to hold $80.5K, the chart opens the door for a deeper liquidity grab toward the $75,000–$74,000 region, where a stronger reaction could emerge.
Market conditions are not favorable for long positions right now. The rejection at $90K is clean, and buyers are not showing strength. Until BTC forms a higher high or confirms a bullish reversal pattern, caution remains the better strategy.
Let’s watch how price behaves near the support levels — the next move will dictate the short-term trend.
FED days are for levels, not direction.FED days are for levels, not direction. Above 90k I respect the squeeze; below 85.3k I respect the breakdown. Map, not signal.
KRAKEN:BTCUSD BTC is chopping around 88k just under a 1h channel top into FED today/tomorrow. ETF flows look soft and options positioning still leans defensive.
I’m not opening new trades into the announcement. Anything stuck between 87–89k post-FED is a no-trade chop zone for me.
Post-FED: if BTC holds above 90k I’ll only look for pullback longs with 92–93k as context; if it loses 85.3k and can’t reclaim, I’ll lean into shorts toward 82–81k. Map, not signal.
BTC – Key Level Watch and Structural OutlookThis chart highlights an important resistance zone around the 88,000 area. If price manages to move firmly above this level, the market may continue forming a higher-timeframe structure toward the 89,000–90,000 region.
The lower zone near 85,300–85,550 remains a notable support area where previous reactions occurred.
This outline is based purely on market structure and potential price behavior, not a trading instruction.
The Bear MarketHere’s my current view of the Bitcoin market:
The 4-year cycle still appears intact, and many who doubt it seem to be in the denial phase. While some market dynamics have changed, the overall structure is still on track. Based on prior cycles, I expect a bear-market bottom to form roughly 324–340 days from now. Until then, I plan to avoid leverage and focus on accumulating during deeper pullbacks. I view Bitcoin around $68k as fair value, with prices above that currently leaning toward overvaluation.
I also disagree with the idea that the cycle can’t be over simply because “too many people are calling the top.” As Bitcoin matures and more cycles unfold, more traders naturally recognize recurring patterns. Increased awareness doesn’t invalidate the possibility that the top is already in.
Comparing this cycle to 2021 is also misleading. The previous double-top was heavily influenced by the pandemic, unprecedented Federal Reserve intervention, stimulus payments, and the surge of retail traders stuck at home. Those conditions don’t exist today. This cycle has been driven instead by regulatory clarity, institutional involvement, and growing governmental trust—resulting in a healthier, more sustainable rally.
Despite extreme fear in the market and widespread pessimism, I believe we still have downside ahead due to broader economic fragility. My current expectation is for a market bottom around October 2026, followed by a renewed parabolic move into the next bull market. I don’t expect Bitcoin to reach $1 million by 2030, though it may be possible someday.
Bitcoin – 1H UpdateIn this strong momentum, we enter the trade with even the smallest trigger,
because all cycles are bearish,
and since we know and apply proper risk management,
we can enter positions comfortably.
After a strong drop and a relatively strong correction,
a trendline break can act as a valid entry trigger,
with the target around **$80,000**.
Global Commodity Market1. Meaning of Global Commodity Market
A commodity market is a marketplace where traders, producers, governments, investors, and consumers engage in the buying and selling of natural resources. These commodities are standardized, meaning one unit of the commodity is identical to another unit. For example, one barrel of Brent crude oil is considered identical to another barrel of the same grade.
The global commodity market operates through:
Spot markets – immediate delivery
Futures markets – delivery at a future date
Derivative markets – options, forwards, swaps
It allows price discovery, hedging, risk management, and global distribution of critical resources.
2. Types of Commodities
The global commodity market is broadly divided into two major categories:
A. Hard Commodities
These are natural resources that are mined or extracted.
Energy Commodities
Crude oil (Brent, WTI)
Natural gas
Coal
Gasoline
Energy is the largest and most traded commodity segment globally.
Metals
Precious metals: gold, silver, platinum
Base metals: copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel
Metals are crucial for construction, manufacturing, electronics, and industrial production.
B. Soft Commodities
These are agricultural or livestock products.
Agricultural Commodities
Wheat, rice, corn
Sugar, coffee, cocoa
Cotton, soybeans, palm oil
Livestock
Cattle
Pork bellies
Dairy products
Soft commodities are essential for food production, clothing, and consumer goods industries.
3. Major Commodity Exchanges
Global commodity trading takes place on several major exchanges:
Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), USA
Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), USA
New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX)
London Metal Exchange (LME), UK
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE)
Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), India
These exchanges provide platforms for futures trading, price benchmarking, delivery, and settlement.
4. How Commodity Trading Works
Spot Trading
The commodity is delivered immediately and payment is done on the spot. For example, a refinery buying crude oil for immediate refining.
Futures Trading
A futures contract is an agreement to buy or sell a commodity at a fixed price at a future date. Futures trading helps in:
Hedging price risk
Speculation
Arbitrage
Portfolio diversification
Options Trading
Options give the right but not the obligation to buy (call) or sell (put) a commodity at a predetermined price.
Derivative Instruments
Forwards
Swaps
Index-based contracts
These instruments help manage price volatility.
5. Price Determination in Commodity Markets
Commodity prices fluctuate constantly due to global supply and demand dynamics. Key factors affecting pricing include:
A. Supply Factors
Production levels
Mining output
Agricultural yield
Weather conditions
Natural disasters
Political instability in producing countries
For example, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East immediately impact crude oil supply and prices.
B. Demand Factors
Industrial growth
Manufacturing output
Energy consumption patterns
Global economic cycles
Consumer behavior
Countries like China, India, and the US heavily influence global demand for metals and energy.
C. Geopolitical Events
Wars, sanctions, export bans, and diplomatic conflicts significantly affect prices.
D. Speculation and Investor Sentiment
Large hedge funds and financial institutions influence market prices through large trading volumes.
E. Currency Movements
Most commodities are priced in US dollars, so when the dollar strengthens, commodity prices generally fall, and vice versa.
6. Role of Commodities in Global Economy
The global commodity market influences:
A. Inflation
When commodity prices rise, production costs increase, leading to higher consumer prices.
B. Trade Balance
Commodity-exporting countries (e.g., Saudi Arabia, Russia) benefit from high prices, while importing nations face trade deficits.
C. Government Revenues
Many countries depend on commodity exports for fiscal income. For example:
Oil revenues in Gulf countries
Copper revenues in Chile
Agricultural exports in Brazil
D. Industrial Growth
Commodities are essential raw materials. Energy, metals, and agricultural goods directly affect the manufacturing and services sectors.
7. Participants in the Global Commodity Market
A. Producers
Oil companies, miners, farmers, and government bodies that supply commodities.
B. Consumers
Refineries, factories, food companies, textile mills, and energy generators.
C. Traders
Individuals and institutions who buy and sell for profit.
D. Hedgers
Businesses use commodity futures to protect against price volatility.
E. Speculators
Take positions in commodities to profit from price fluctuations.
F. Governments
Play a key role through regulations, import/export policies, and strategic reserves.
8. Challenges in Global Commodity Markets
A. Price Volatility
Commodity prices are extremely sensitive to global events and may change rapidly.
B. Geopolitical Risks
Wars, sanctions, and political disputes disrupt supply chains and increase uncertainty.
C. Climate Change
Extreme weather events affect agricultural output, water availability, and mining conditions.
D. Market Manipulation
Large players may attempt to influence prices through hoarding or cartel-like behavior.
E. Supply Chain Bottlenecks
Shipping disruptions, port closures, or labor shortages can halt the movement of commodities.
9. Future Trends in the Global Commodity Market
A. Renewable Energy Boom
Demand for metals like lithium, cobalt, nickel, and copper is rising due to electric vehicles and green energy.
B. Digitalization and AI
Algorithmic trading and real-time analytics are transforming commodity trading efficiency.
C. Sustainable Agriculture
Countries are investing in climate-friendly farming and supply chains.
D. Commodity Tokenization
Blockchain may enable digital trading of commodity-backed tokens.
E. Shift in Global Demand
Asia, particularly India and China, will continue to drive commodity consumption.
Conclusion
The global commodity market is a dynamic and essential component of the world economy. It connects producers, consumers, governments, and financial institutions in a vast network of trade and investment. As commodities form the backbone of industrial production, energy supply, and food systems, their prices and availability influence economic growth, inflation, and geopolitical strategies. Although the market is complex and often volatile, it provides opportunities for risk management, investment, and global economic development. Understanding how the commodity market works is crucial for businesses, policymakers, and investors navigating today’s interconnected world.
BTC Daily Outlook | November 23, 2025BTC/USD – 1H Analysis (Nov 23, 2025)
Trend & Momentum:
Price has been recovering from the previous sell-off but is currently facing resistance near $88,294.
The 5 and 10 EMAs are above the current price, but the 50 EMA is starting to flatten out, showing that bullish momentum is trying to stabilize.
Structure:
Recent candles show a series of higher lows, indicating short-term bullish pressure.
The pullback to the EMAs could act as support before the next leg up.
Key Levels:
Resistance: $88,294 – clearing this could open the path toward $90k+.
Support: ~$86,500 – current EMA cluster could hold buyers.
Outlook:
Likely scenario: A small consolidation near current EMAs before another push higher.
Bullish break above $88,294 would confirm continuation toward the next psychological levels.
If price fails to hold EMAs, a deeper pullback toward $85,500 is possible.
Conclusion:
Watch for price reaction at EMAs for entry confirmation.
Trend is cautiously bullish as long as higher lows are maintained.
BTC long for THE LEAPLong btc and eth here, esp eth, at max pain social sentiment, but besides that, I think mean revision is the name of the game in the start of a bull market, with us approaching elections, and with USDT market cap dominance % near last bull run highs, which would be a low level, thus allowing printing pressure to subside, launching btc upwards. I think the lowest we can go here on btc would be 64k/65k and i'd expect a green buy signal to show up if we push that low, if not we move sideways with chop till we can get a volatile move that resets and gives us a buy signal. I'm early cause I don't think it will be easily timed. GOOD LUCK!
BTC not in great spot for trading up or downLong or short here looks sub optimal. To many landmines either way. Best option for long is we fall to the major GP then pivot back to the 107k area.
We are holding this for range POC and creating a daily level for now, so does appear up is the direction, just not happy with R/R here. Check out my ETH chart posted earlier, that is much clearer on a long with great R/R, or if it we do roll over for a short.
BTCUSD H4 | Bearish Reaction off Key ResistanceMomentum: Bearish
Price is currently below the ichimoku cloud.
Sell entry: 89,178.2
- Pullback resistance
- 71% Fib retracement
Stop Loss: 94,109.18
- Overlap resistance
Take Profit: 81,863
- Swing low support
High Risk Investment Warning
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BTCUSD 1W – Structure Break & Key Levels to WatchHello Traders
Bitcoin on the weekly timeframe has broken below the rising trendline that supported the market for several months. This break has shifted market structure from strong bullish momentum into a phase of potential correction.
Price is now trading around an important demand / support zone near 100,000 – 95,000, which previously acted as both resistance and support. This zone will be important to monitor as price tests it again from above.
Key Technical Highlights:
🔹 Trendline Break:
The rising trendline has been invalidated, signaling a slowdown in bullish strength and opening the door for deeper pullbacks.
🔹 First Reaction Zone (95K–100K):
This area may offer temporary support. How price reacts here will guide the next weeks of movement.
🔹 Potential Consolidation:
Sideways movement inside this zone is possible before the next leg of market direction forms.
🔹 Lower Support Zone (80K Region):
If price fails to hold above the mid-range support, the next major weekly structure sits near 80,000, which aligns with previous accumulation and reaction levels.
Market Structure Insight:
The chart currently illustrates a corrective move inside a larger trend. Bitcoin remains in a broader bullish cycle, but the weekly pullback is giving clean levels for structure-based observation. The drawn path reflects a possible market reaction scenario — not a trade signal.






















