What traders are saying
BTC Outlook - Can the "Week" Say I am Strong??!!!!Hey, Traders. Well, BTC is still on this wild ride and things are not looking too good for the Bulls and enthusiasts. If you've been following us, you've seen how this market structure has been playing out near perfectly for those who can understand what is really going on.
The focus for today's post is on the Weekly chart. As the WORD says in Joel 3:10, "let the weak say I am Strong". That is a call to action...to get up and take a stand. Well, for BTC that is the call for right now. If there is any chance that BTC holds up and stands its ground, it is going to be NOW and on the weekly chart. BTCs Week needs to say I am strong! Let's dive in:
Where are we now:
We have seen BTC follow our plan and fall down to near exactly the Weekly Demand Source we highlighted a couple of weeks ago. This level at $59,900 was the initial target after we saw a breakdown of market structure around the $110K price range. That was a 50%+ fall from all time highs, and a huge shock to most of the crypto world. But, it is an awakening to the fact that BTC is not exempt from following market structure, no matter how opportunistic it is. Since hitting this support level, we've seen an expected bullish response and push back up to the last Key Monthly Level we had identified at ~$71,400.
So, What is next?:
From here we are most likely to see a retest of this Weekly Demand Source (52,500 - 59,900). This baby is still falling unless and until we get at least an H4 Break of Structure back up to show that the Bulls have had enough! So far, that has not happened, and so the Fall continues.
We have another Key Monthly level sitting at around $59,012. I'm highlighting that as the last "reasonable" level to keep the price up. This level and the Weekly Demand Source are overlapping so the confluences here MUST be strong enough to hold, or it is Curtains for BTC. We need to watch this Weekly Source closely and look for any cracks in it. If we get an H4 candle close below that $52,500 floor, it is a dangerous sign for BTC. The daily will be the stronger indicator of the problem, so if we get that H4 close below, you need to watch the daily like a hawk!
What if this last support fails:?
If this last line of defense - the Weekly Demand Source (internal) and the Monthly level fail, the only strong support for BTC would be the external Weekly Demand Source way down at 15,800 - 17,800. That is scary but don't think it can't happen. It absolutely can! A weekly candle close below the existing Weekly Demand Source at $52,500 will almost certainly trigger another Major fall. There will likely be some "dead cat bounce" supports at around 40-45K and then again at 25-28K, but again, if the weekly gives up this $52,500 area, it is unlikely that any of these other attempts will stop the price.
So, overall, we are watching this current fall and expecting it to continue until we see signs otherwise. Aggressive traders will stay in sells or shorts until the H4 shows a break of structure...which we have not had yet! Additional sell entries can be taken at new H1 supply zones (or more aggressively at 15 min supply zones).
I hope this helps and that you all are extracting wealth from these markets. Please leave me your comments, questions, thoughts, etc. and if you need any help in learning how to better read the markets, let us know!
bitcoin (1h)As you can see, the price is moving inside a descending channel, and it is also forming a descending wedge. If the wedge breaks to the downside, the price could drop toward the $65k area, where it may find support and potentially start rising again.
However, if the channel is broken to the upside, the price could rally above $70k
Selling Bitcoin Rallies May Make More Sense NowBitcoin started the month of February on a very weak note, with price dropping roughly 25% and reaching a local low near 60k.
However, once that level was tested, buyers stepped in and BTC began to recover.
At the time of writing, price is trading back above 70k, showing that demand exists at lower levels.
🔎 Current Market View
From my perspective, the most feasible scenario for the coming period is range trading.
- Not a straight continuation up.
- Not an immediate collapse.
- But a period of balance.
A reasonable working range could be:
Ceiling: 80–83k
Floor: around 60k
⚖️ Bias and Risk Perspective
Personally, I do not believe 60k is the final bottom.
It may hold temporarily, but structurally the market still looks fragile.
Because of that, from a risk perspective:
👉 the lower-risk opportunities are on the sell side,
especially if price pushes back toward the 80k+ zone.
📌 Practical Approach
This doesn’t mean blindly shorting.
It means:
- waiting for rallies into resistance
- watching for exhaustion or rejection
- then acting with defined risk
✅ Bottom Line
BTC is likely entering a range phase, but NO, I don't think 60k was the ultimate bottom.
Bitcoin Following a previous path but Accelerated and BULLISH
The Beauty of Data on a chart is that it is FACT.
So lets have a look
SMA colors
50 SMA - RED
100 SMA - Blue
128 SMA - Green
200 SMA - Yellow
Bitcoin followed a 2013 to 2017 Fractel for most of the recovery from the Deep Bear, from Jan 2023.
But in February 2025, PA fell off this Path, and so avoided a Parabolic rise and a Blow off Top.
We may have entered another Fractel but I am waiting for confirmation before talking about it.
But what IS happening is a very srrong similarity to the post Novemebr 2021 ATH>
Lets have a look
The 2021 Bear was a Harsh education of world finances for many and the Deep Bear Market Bitcoin experienced was painful. But even this did not Stop the Bulls keeping their hands in as best as possible...as a result, we saw some recoveries attemoted while other Companies and organisations collapsed.
So, we saw PA falling below 50 SMA , 56 days after ATH
PA fell below the 100 SMA 119 days later
PA Hit the 200, Normally a Strong line of support, just 42 days after we lost the 100.
PA fell straight through the 200.
And we stayed below the 200 for nealry 10 Months., The longest period Ever
And so, How is this similar to wat is happening now ?
We are having a sharp fall down...and on this occasion, it is happening QUICKER than in 2021.
Lets Look
So, we saw PA falling below 50 SMA , 35 days after ATH
PA fell below the 100 SMA 77 days later
PA Hit the 200, just 7 days after we lost the 100.
On both occasions, we had a short Period of time.
Then a longer period which was approximatly Twice the length of the first time length.
Follwed by a shorter period
The Difference this time is the 200 Held as support.
In my mind, what we are seeing now, is what should have happened , post 2021 ATH, with out the TradFi pressures trying to Crash Bitcoin.
And as I have stated in another post last week, I am confident that we are around the baseline of the Drop.
Reasons being, we are on the 200 weekly SMA
We are in very close price range to the 2021 ATH line.
PA is over Sold on Most Time Frames.
This is not to say we can go Lower, we certainly can...
But we are certainly in an area for Ranging and I thinnk it is htis that we will do Till we get the inflation Data from the USa this week
BITCOIN The Bear Cycle 'Sweet Spot'Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is currently sitting on the 4th straight red week following last week's near test of its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). As we've discussed before, the Bear Cycle may be entering Phase 2 when the 1W MA200 finally breaks.
From a Fibonacci perspective, last week's Low also came close to the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level from the last Bear Cycle bottom. That was when the lengthy bottoming process started for BTC. Also that 1W MA200/ 0.382 Fib break coincided with a near test of the 2.0 Fib extension (blue) from the first Low of the 2022 Bear Cycle.
That is currently around $51000 and the Zone within that and the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement from the Bear Cycle bottom (around $45000) is the 'Sweet Spot'. Practically this is a 'no-miss' Buy Zone on a cyclical perspective where long-term investors can start feeling comfortable enough to initiate buying again. We've already discussed why a 1W MA350 (red trend-line) bottom would technically make sense, as this is where the 2022 Bear Cycle bottomed.
So do you think the 51000 - 45000 Zone is a 'Sweet Spot' buying range for BTC? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
---
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
---
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
The bottom is nearOver the past few days, I have seen quite a few people say that the bottom is in. I am not coming out and arguing that a bottom is in, but there are strong indications that we are approaching one for the cycle.
Utilizing a log chart, we add a probability cone on the date of each cycle top from the prior and current cycles on a weekly time frame. We use a look-back period of 208 weeks and note the following:
1.) The price had three major points of contact with the lower second standard deviation band during the prior cycle, with the final point of contact occuring during the Tera Luna crash of May 2022 - after this, there was clearly a period of accumulation before the following bull run began.
2.) The price has had three major points of contact with the lower second standard deviation band during the CURRENT cycle, with the final point of contact occuring last week/right now. After this, I will not be surprised to see a period of accumulation (perhaps a few weeks or a few months, history points to October) before the next bull market begins.
3.) several accumulation schematics can play out, but I am expecting one final lower low (perhaps around $55k or so) before a spring into the next bull market.
4.) News Cycle similarities: overwhelmingly negative during 2022. This is precisely near the time when I first got into Bitcoin, and everyone was screaming bloody murder that I was a fool for entering the market at the time; not listening to other people and the FUD was probably the best decision that I have ever made. Take note of the current news cycle and just how many people are screaming from the top of their lungs that Bitcoin is going to zero. These people are solely responsible for depriving themselves of the single greatest investment opportunity in their lives. Bitcoin is and will be the best performing asset of all time, haters love to hate.
Bitcoin Rejected at Resistance — Is 63K the Next Magnet?Bitcoin is currently trading inside a short-term bearish structure after failing to reclaim the 68.5K resistance zone. Price attempted a minor recovery but was rejected cleanly from the lower boundary of the previous range, confirming that former support is now acting as resistance.
1️⃣ Market Structure
- Clear lower highs forming on the right side of the chart.
- EMA cluster is sloping downward short-term momentum favors sellers.
- Price is trading below both dynamic resistance levels.
The inability to hold above 68.5K signals weak bullish follow-through. This suggests the market is in a distribution-to-markdown transition rather than accumulation.
2️⃣ Key Levels
Resistance Zone: ~68,000 – 68,500
This level is now a supply flip. Any bounce into this area is likely to face selling pressure unless strong momentum reclaims it.
Support Zone: ~63,000 – 63,500
This is the next high-liquidity demand area. If bearish pressure continues, this zone becomes the primary downside magnet.
The projected path suggests:
Minor relief bounce
Followed by continuation lower toward support
3️⃣ Invalidation Scenario
Bearish bias weakens if:
Price closes decisively above 68.5K
EMAs flatten and reclaim structure
Higher high forms on H1
Until that happens, rallies remain corrective within a developing downtrend.
Trader’s Mindset
Bitcoin is not breaking down impulsively yet but it is failing to reclaim resistance.
That is often how markdown begins.
👉 Trade the structure. Respect the resistance flip.
63K is the liquidity pool that matters next.
BTC 1H🧠 Market Context
Bitcoin has just completed a liquidity sweep after an extended move, tapping into a high-timeframe supply/demand reaction zone. Price action is currently compressing, signaling that we’re approaching a decision point where momentum traders and HTF participants collide.
The recent impulse leg shows aggressive positioning, but follow-through volume is starting to fade — typically a precursor to either consolidation or a sharp expansion move.
🔑 Key Levels To Watch
Major Resistance / Supply: Previous breakdown region + liquidity cluster
Mid-Range Pivot: Intraday structure flip area
Primary Support: Demand zone aligned with prior consolidation base
Invalidation Level: Clean break + acceptance beyond HTF structure
These zones are not just horizontal levels — they represent orderflow interest areas where reactions are statistically more likely.
📈 Bullish Scenario
If price holds above the mid-range structure and builds higher lows:
Expect continuation toward equal highs / resting liquidity
Break-and-retest of resistance could trigger expansion
Momentum confirmation: strong candle closes + increasing volume
Bias shifts bullish on structure confirmation, not anticipation.
📉 Bearish Scenario
Failure to reclaim reclaimed structure could signal:
Distribution inside resistance
Sweep-and-reverse pattern
Rotation back into lower demand zones
A clean breakdown below support with acceptance likely opens a fast-move liquidity vacuum.
⚠️ Trading Strategy
Avoid chasing mid-range noise
Let price come into levels
Focus on confirmations:
Structure breaks
Volume expansion
Reaction speed at zones
Remember: Location > Prediction.
🧭 Final Thoughts
Bitcoin is sitting at a high-probability reaction area. The next expansion move will likely come after liquidity is fully engineered around current consolidation.
Stay patient, trade the reaction — not the emotion.
How to Watch a BITCOIN BEAR and Bottom watching. :-) ...........
There are so many tools to use when trying to identify Bitcoin Bear signals and markers.
But it is actually not really that complicated.
All you need are 2 SMA's and the RSI
Lets Get in
On the chart above...
21 SMA - Orange
50 SMA - Red
On a monthly chart, Above, When that 21 SMA drops below PA, THAT is the Confirmation of a Bear.
On a Weekly chart. It is the 50 SMA that Gives the First signal...When that drops below PA, start looking at the monthly chart.
The Boxes on the chart are started off a Weekly chart.
On a Month Chart, Note how that 50 SMA acts as support, usually. This is the "Bottom Zone Marker"
It will be the 200 SMA on a Weeklu chart.
So, there we are,,,,simple identifiers to see the Start and the possible Low off a Bear market.
What about the End ?
That is next to impossible..................However, the RSI can show us historical data that we should not ignore.
Before we look at the RSI, Go back and look at the Main chart. Take Note of the Vertical Dashed lines, Off ATH and then the Vertical Dotted lines.
The Monthly RSI is invaluable.
The Vertical Dotted lines are the LOW point of the RSI draw down.
And as we can see, this does NOT always indicate the End of the Bear But the turning point of the RSI.
Something very interesting is how the Day count from ATH to the RSI low point was the same after 2017 and 2021.
If we use that same day number now, Does that mean we can expect tp wait till November this year ?
NO - Maybe, Impossible to say
But what Is very interesting now..is that Horizontal line that RSI has bounced off previously.
We have reached that point SO FAST.
Will that momentum continue and fall below that line , as in 2022 ?
Again, impossible to say but this needs to be watched.
So, Quick look back at main chart
Look at those Dotted lines again, the Low point of the RSI.
While Not the End of the Bear, officially, There Was a Range or a Rise in Price from these points...The BOTTOM was identified.
And we could be there NOW>.....
Personalty, I think a Range is more likely for a while but we may see a push higher for the Spring Push but statisticaly, that may not happen till Mid March / April
On a monthly Candle Close Color count.,
Feb has 10 Green to 4 Red - going to be hard to get a Green this time.
March has 6 Green to 8 Red
April has 9 Green to 5 Red
So, all we can do is wait.....
For now, I am assuming we are on or near the Bottom unless something Stupid happens in the eworld...
So, I buy Sats, amd Wait......................Cautiously
Bitcoin Dips Below Key $70,000 LevelBitcoin Dips Below Key $70,000 Level
Bitcoin (BTC-USD) has slipped below the critical $70,000 threshold, down 2.41% amid broader crypto volatility and market rotations. This dip follows a wild ride, potentially signaling the end of a bear phase based on Sharpe Ratio metrics, but questions linger on sustained recovery.
Key facts: Trading near $68,500, BTC faces support at $65,000 with resistance at $72,000. The move correlates with tech sell-offs and AI capex shifts, where energy demands indirectly pressure crypto mining costs. Ethereum (ETH) shows similar weakness, down in tandem.
Implications: This could present buying opportunities 💡 for long-term holders, especially with interconnections to AI (e.g., data center energy) and commodities (gold as a hedge). However, risks from regulatory scrutiny and market sentiment tied to upcoming US jobs/CPI data warrant caution ⚠️. Altcoins may follow, amplifying volatility.
Links to bigger pictures: Bitcoin's movements often preview tech trends; watch for rebounds if Dow sustains above 50,000. Consider staking strategies for yields above 4% in stable protocols.
Bitcoin - Is Bitcoin's Downtrend Over?!Bitcoin is below the EMA50 and EMA200 on the four-hour timeframe and is in its medium-term descending channel. Bitcoin's upward correction towards the specified supply zones will provide us with its next selling opportunities.
If the decline continues towards the demand zone, we can buy Bitcoin with appropriate risk-reward. It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market and compliance with capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important. If the downward trend continues, we can buy within the demand limit.
Market sentiment across the cryptocurrency space has fallen to its lowest level since the collapse of FTX, a period when Bitcoin’s sharp decline triggered widespread forced deleveraging and heavy selling pressure throughout the market.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropped to 9 on Friday, placing it firmly in the “extreme fear” zone—levels historically observed only during periods of severe market confidence breakdown.
By the end of the trading week, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded another negative performance, similar to the previous two weeks. However, despite the deeper market decline, total outflows reached $689 million, noticeably lower than the $1.49 billion and $1.33 billion outflows seen in the two prior weeks.
Bitcoin’s sharp سقوط to around $60,000—roughly a 30% drop within a single week—has fueled widespread speculation among traders and analysts. Many believe the decline was not driven solely by general risk-off sentiment but was likely connected to the forced liquidation of a large non-crypto entity.
According to these scenarios, the recent heavy selling may have originated from a **major institution—possibly based in Asia—**that was compelled to exit positions rapidly due to financial pressure. Social media discussions have ranged from multi-billion-dollar Bitcoin sales by a government or exchange to chain reactions across leveraged trades, carry trades, and options positions tied to BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT).
This سقوط marked Bitcoin’s worst single-day performance since the 2022 FTX collapse. “Flood,” a well-known crypto trader, described the selling as “violent, forced, and indiscriminate,” noting that pressure of this magnitude has rarely been seen in recent years.
At the same time, the steep price decline has reignited concerns about Bitcoin’s long-term security. Some industry participants argue that falling prices and reduced liquidity may be the only forces capable of pushing the market toward serious efforts to harden Bitcoin against quantum-computing threats, particularly as sentiment reaches post-FTX lows.
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, attributed the sudden drop in Bitcoin’s price to bank hedging activity linked to BlackRock’s spot ETF (IBIT). He noted that institutions such as Morgan Stanley have issued structured productstied to the ETF’s performance.
Hayes explained that these instruments effectively represent bank bets on Bitcoin’s price, and when BTC moves rapidly, banks must buy or sell immediately to manage risk—behavior that can amplify volatility and produce sharp price swings.
He emphasized that he will closely monitor these ETF-linked financial products going forward, as they may provide signals of Bitcoin’s next major market moves.
Meanwhile, Strategy reported significantly higher losses in its fourth-quarter earnings, with unrealized digital-asset losses reaching $17.4 billion and a net loss of $12.4 billion.
As of February 1, 2026, the company holds 713,502 BTC, acquired at a total cost of $54.26 billion and an average price of $76,052 per Bitcoin.
During 2025, Strategy raised $25.3 billion in funding while building a $2.25 billion cash reserve, which the company states is sufficient to cover approximately 2.5 years of dividend payments and interest expenses.
BTCUSD – Swing Idea ( 2-6 weeks )BTC is currently pulling back into a large discount zone, approaching the Yearly FVG support and the marked Strategic Entry Zone on the chart. Price has swept prior lows and is sitting above a major liquidity pocket, suggesting the market may be preparing for a reactionary move.
The projected path shows a possible deeper liquidity sweep into the green support zone followed by a reversal and rally toward mid-range inefficiencies and bearish OBs.
Bullish Scenario (Primary Bias if Support Holds)
Entry Thesis
Price is expected to retest the Yearly FVG support and form a reaction.
A bullish reversal becomes valid only if price holds above the lower boundary of the Strategic Entry Zone and reclaims structure.
Proposed Entry
Entry Area: $54,000 – $58,000 zone (Strategic Entry Zone + FVG support)
Invalidation / Stop Loss:
Below $50,000 → breaks structure & invalidates bullish reaction narrative.
Upside Targets
Target 1: $78,000 – $80,000
(Mid-range inefficiency fill + first bearish reaction OB)
Target 2: $105,000 – $108,000
(Swing OB reaction zone / major resistance cluster)
Extended Target: $125,000 – $126,000
(High-timeframe bearish OB + major liquidity zone projected on chart)
Reasoning
Strong historical FVG support beneath price.
Sweep-and-reclaim pattern anticipated.
Significant inefficiencies above price provide natural magnet targets.
Higher-timeframe bearish OBs align well as profit-taking levels.
Bearish Scenario (Contingency Plan)
Bearish Thesis
If BTC fails to hold the green Strategic Entry Zone and closes below $50,000, the bullish scenario becomes invalid.
Breakdown Targets
Target 1: $45,000
Target 2: $38,000 (major weekly structural low)
This remains a secondary scenario unless support fails decisively.
Disclosure
This write-up is for educational and chart-interpretation purposes only.
It is not financial advice and should not be used as the sole basis for investment decisions.
Always manage risk, use proper position sizing, and consult a licensed financial professional before making trading decisions.
The Great 2026 Shakeout: $60k Support or $50k Capitulation?1. Technical Analysis: The 4H Blueprint
As shown in the attached chart, Bitcoin is currently navigating a high-stakes "correction phase" within a textbook Descending Channel.
Resistance Confluence: BTC is currently testing the upper boundary of the channel. This level is reinforced by the Weekly Pivot Zone (orange box) and the heavy Monthly Resistance at $70,204. Until we see a decisive 4H candle close above $71,000 with surging volume, the local trend remains firmly bearish.
The Horizontal Pivot: We are currently hovering around the $65,000–$66,000 range. This is the "no-man's land" where bulls and bears are battling for control.
Support Floors: The ultimate "Line in the Sand" sits at the Monthly CPR Support ($61,767) and the psychological $60,000 floor. A breach here would likely trigger a liquidation cascade, as it marks the last major defense before the channel's lower extension.
2. Market Sentiment & Global Situation
The macro-environment has turned frosty, and the "Extreme Fear" on-chain is palpable.
The "Warsh" Factor: The recent nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair (set to replace Powell in May) has sent shockwaves through risk assets. The market anticipates a "Hawkish Pivot" focused on shrinking the Fed's balance sheet, which is currently draining liquidity from the crypto ecosystem.
Extreme Fear & Realized Losses: The Fear & Greed Index has plummeted to 9/100, the lowest since the 2022 collapse. Data shows nearly $2.3 billion in realized losses this week alone, suggesting we are in a major capitulation phase.
The ETF "Tourist" Exit: With the average entry price for Spot ETF holders sitting near $90,000, a significant portion of institutional "tourists" are now underwater. We are seeing sustained net outflows as these players de-risk in the face of global uncertainty.
Standard Chartered Warning: Leading analysts have slashed their 2026 targets, with some warning that Bitcoin could drop to $50,000 (a 50% retracement from the 2025 highs) before finding a structural bottom.
3. Conclusion: The Two Scenarios
Scenario A (The Bounce): If BTC can reclaim the $70,204 resistance and break the descending channel, it would invalidate the bearish thesis and likely lead to a short-squeeze back toward $80k.
Scenario B (The Flush): Failure to hold the $60,000–$61,700 support will likely result in a "capitulation wick" down to $50,000–$52,000. This would be the final "cleansing" of the market before a late-2026 recovery.
The verdict: Patience is key. Watch the $60k level like a hawk—it is the only thing standing between us and a deeper correction.
CAUTION: This analysis is for educational purposes only. Trading cryptocurrencies involves high risk. Please conduct your own assessment and trade only with capital you are prepared to lose. Market conditions in 2026 remain highly volatile.
Bitcoin bottoming?Bitcoin shows possible bottoming signs here. The $69K level is a massive zone on long-term charts. I have been watching PA around this level on intraday charts in the last few days, following that big kick-back rally Friday. Though we haven't had any upside follow-thru yet, the consolidation here looks quite bullish to me. For as long as we dont see BTC go below the blue zone on the chart, I would be on high alert for a bullish break and a possible bottom around current levels. Let's see if we get that bullish breakout soon. It needs to happen in the next day or two, otherwise the loss of momentum from Friday would suggest otherwise.
by Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
BTC PERPETUAL TRADE BUY SETUP Long from $69850BTC PERPETUAL TRADE
BUY SETUP
Long from $69850
Currently $69850
Targeting $70700 or Above
(Trading plan IF BTC
go down to $68300 will add more longs)
Follow the notes for updates
In the event of an early exit,
this analysis will be updated.
Its not a Financial advice






















