BTC Playbook: 93k Pivot vs 98k Path__________________________________________________________________________________
Market Overview
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Price is pressing into a well-defined 92,800–93,500 resistance band while macro leadership stays risk-off, making this a decision area. Momentum is rebuilding off 89k supports, but higher timeframes lean cautious until acceptance above 93,150.
Momentum: Bearish-to-neutral with a tactical counter-trend bounce; sustained strength needs a clean break-and-hold above 93,150.
Key levels:
- Resistances (HTF): 92,800–93,500 (240 Pivot High zone), 98,115 (W Pivot Low), 107,474 (D Pivot High)
- Supports (HTF/ITF): 90,500–90,800 (recent base), 89,012 (240 Pivot Low), 86,261 (240 Pivot Low)
Volumes: Moderate on 1D/12H; normal on intraday (6H/4H/2H/1H).
Multi-timeframe signals: 1D Up vs 12H/6H/4H/2H Down; intraday 1H Up but into HTF resistance. Defer to 12H Down unless 93,150 is accepted with persistence.
Harvest zones: 80,200 (Cluster A) / 76,600–77,100 (Cluster B) — ideal deep dip-buying areas for inverse pyramiding if market overreacts.
Risk On / Risk Off Indicator context: Neutral sell — confirms the cautious stance under resistance and argues for patience on longs.
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Trading Playbook
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The dominant read is neutral-sell into HTF resistance; adopt a reactive approach: fade failed breakouts, flip to long only on confirmed acceptance.
Global bias: Neutral-sell while below 93,150; bias flips constructive on ≥2H/4H acceptance above 93,150. Invalidation of the fade: sustained hold above 93,150.
Opportunities:
- Tactical sell: Fade 92,800–93,500 if 2H/4H prints rejection and volume fades; add on loss of 91,000 toward 89,012.
- Breakout buy: Engage on ≥2H/4H close above 93,150 with successful retest; first target 98,115.
- Reactive buy: Probe 89,012 only on strong reversal signal (≥2H) with improving volumes.
Risk zones / invalidations:
- Break below 89,012 would invalidate reactive longs and opens 86,261 risk.
- Sustained hold above 93,150 would invalidate shorts from the 92,800–93,500 fade zone.
Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news):
- Liquidity tailwind: PBOC injections + equities <2% from ATH, but thin holiday liquidity can distort moves.
- ETFs: 7-day BTC spot ETF flows negative despite a small daily inflow — headwind near resistance.
- Rates: Elevated Fed cut odds support dips, but headline risks (stablecoins/geopolitics) can spark risk-off spikes.
Harvest Plan (Inverse Pyramid):
- Palier 1 (12.5%): 80,200 (Cluster A) + reversal ≥2H → entry
- Palier 2 (+12.5%): 75,400–77,000 (-6%/-4% below Palier 1) (Cluster B included) → reinforcement
- TP: 50% at +12–18% from PMP → recycle cash
- Runner: hold if break & hold first R HTF (93,150)
- Invalidation: < HTF Pivot Low (not provided) or 96h no momentum
- Hedge (1x): Short first R HTF (93,150) on rejection + bearish trend → neutralize below R
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Multi-Timeframe Insights
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Higher timeframes are mixed with 1D Up versus 12H Down; execution should respect the 12H filter until 93,150 is reclaimed with persistence.
12H/6H/4H/2H: Downtrend bias pressing into 92,800–93,500 supply; rejection here favors a rotation to 91,000 then 89,012. Acceptance and hold above 93,150 unlocks 98,115.
1D/1H: 1D Up but capped by 93,150; 1H Up is counter-trend into HTF resistance, so expect chop under 93k unless volume expands on breakout.
Confluences/divergences: Persistent HTF resistance at 93,150 aligns with risk-off macro; 1D strength is an exception that requires flow/volume confirmation to extend.
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Macro & On-Chain Drivers
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Macro is cautiously constructive on liquidity, but BTC-specific flows are not yet a tailwind, keeping technical resistance meaningful.
Macro events: PBOC liquidity injections aid risk; S&P 500 near ATH with thin US holiday liquidity; elevated cut odds into December create a soft landing narrative but headline risk persists.
Bitcoin analysis: BTC reclaimed 90k with negative/neutral funding; overhead supply 91.9–93k; ETF 7-day flows negative, dampening confidence at resistance.
On-chain data: Liquidity pockets discussed around low 80ks; heavy puts near mid-80ks; recovery impulses need stronger demand inflow and key cost-basis reclaims.
Expected impact: If ETF flows stabilize and price accepts above 93,150, path opens toward 98,115; otherwise the 92,800–93,500 zone favors tactical fades.
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Key Takeaways
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BTC is testing a critical resistance while macro risk-on is tentative and flow support is uneven.
- Trend: Neutral-to-bearish below 93,150; constructive only on confirmed acceptance above.
- Setup: Fade 92,800–93,500 rejections; switch long on ≥2H/4H hold above 93,150 targeting 98,115.
- Macro: ETF 7-day flows remain negative, capping conviction at resistance despite broader liquidity support.
Stay patient at the boss gate; wait for a clean unlock above 93,150 or harvest the rejection.
