Future looks different and simpler!- I closed my shorts recently in the morning for +20%, was short this name from the time it broke the trendline and closed it today given the chatter around NASDAQ:DUOL being undervalued blah blah.....
- I was calling out don't look at the current financial numbers and look into the future. All those rosy projections of analyst will look unattainable after a few quarters.
- We have AI which can do speech to speech translation. People were saying LLM can't teach you language but guys we dont need to learn any language at all.
- Companies are building products and application around it. Today NASDAQ:AAPL launched feature on their earphone where it could do realtime translation.
- Apple previously planned to add realtime translation in texting so that two different people can talk to each other in different languages but the text would be translated in the language of choice.
- NASDAQ:DUOL is not cheap, it's still trading around 77 forward p/e which is ridiculous for an APP which has no moat and provides no other value than instant gratification of streak which keeps people hooked.
DUOL trade ideas
Duolingo bull breakout caseDuolingo is giving a strong signal that a possible trend reversal may occur in the short term.
The volume profile shows that a bottom has formed. In the coming days, consolidation is expected, followed by a strong breakout toward 340. Once we manage to surpass 340, there will be room to move up to 500+. Let the bulls do their work — trend-following investors can profit from this at least up to 340.
When a breakout occurs, I will update the chart.
DUOL: Premium Growth, Golden Ratio PullbackDuolingo is one of the rare consumer apps that has turned daily engagement into real money. Revenue is growing +40% year-over-year, gross margins sit above 70%, and the company is debt-free with over $1B in cash on the balance sheet. ROIC has now climbed into double digits, proving the model scales.
Yes, the valuation is rich — about 113× trailing earnings and 57× forward — but investors are paying for a clear growth runway: paid subscribers are compounding fast, new verticals like Math and Music are gaining traction, and the Duolingo English Test is carving out its own niche. For long-term holders, that combination of growth + financial safety is exactly what creates durable value.
Technically speaking, the stock has corrected sharply in recent months, mostly due to valuation concerns and profit-taking after a strong run. It almost feels like trying to catch a falling knife, but that’s exactly why it’s worth putting the gloves on and looking for strong support.
Around $200, there’s a powerful confluence of signals:
- Trendline support zone (both from wicks and closing prices)
- Previous highs that now act as support
- Fibonacci golden ratio (61.8%) retracement
- Round number magnet at $200
- Weekly EMA200
Do your homework, and if these align with your thesis, this could be a compelling setup. It’s definitely an area worth watching.
Regards,
Vaido
Why are you buying this company ? Because some guru said so.....In investment, it is better to learn to make your own decisions than to rely on others. Learn to fish for yourself than to be fed all the time.
We can see from chart that price has fallen almost 50% from peak and is now making a possible trend reversal pattern from the support level at 273.
If this is for a short trade, maybe can enter with a SL below 255 and take profits at 368 or 414.
Just because someone in the social media preach about a certain stock, it does not mean it is a good stock to buy. Always DYODD . For example, I missed Pop Mart and discovered two great China stocks - Muyan Foods and Yantai China PetFoods .
In determining if a company has economic moat - it can be subjective and changes with time. Look at Starbucks China .
Tapping on the consumer sentiments in a big market like China is important ! But to know if it will last for many years require both science and art, imo. Take a look at EV markets in China. It is undeniably the largest manufacturer in the world and each player is now undercutting prices to outdo one another. Results ? Dwindling sales - a lose lose situation for all players. Yes, the EV market is still at its infancy stage and many countries are not fully adapting to it yet. Yes, the demand will be there but look at the share prices of these 3 players . That is why I avoid automotive companies as it is subject to lots of government policies and exports requirements !
DUOL - NOT FOR TREND-FOLLOWING TRADERS DUOL - CURRENT PRICE : 271.28
Duolingo, Inc. (DUOL) is in a downtrend since 14 May 2025. The stock has recently tested the support level near USD 263, which coincides with a previous demand zone. This bounce from support highlights buying pressure, indicating the likelihood of a short-term reversal.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved near 30 level, signaling that the stock is in oversold territory. Oversold conditions often precede a technical rebound as selling pressure eases.
The confluence of oversold momentum and price stabilization at support suggests a possible bounce play. If buying volume increases, the stock could recover toward USD 297 – 325, its next resistance zone.
ENTRY PRICE : 271.00 - 272.00
TARGET : 297.00 and 325.00
SUPPORT : 260.00 (CUTLOSS below 260.00 on closing basis)
Notes : As the dominant trend is clearly bearish (downtrend) since 14 May 2025, this setup is not for trend-following traders.
Risk of Disruption is too high to ignore- Analyst estimates are too optimistic for NASDAQ:DUOL
- AI risk to disruption is very high for a language learning app like NASDAQ:DUOL
- Foundational multi-modal LLMs can easily do text to speech and vice versa
- Vibe coding is not a direct threat but it definitely helps those who know what they are doing. It can make android or IOS developer more productive that they could easily launch a free variant or undercut the pricing NASDAQ:DUOL charges.
- Even if we consider that analyst estimates for NASDAQ:DUOL would be met or beat.
Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027
EPS | 3.25 | 4.78 | 6.61
EPS% | 61.07% | 47.13% | 38.16%
Any company growing EPS > 50% deserves a forward p/e of 50. I would agree with it if there's no risk to disruption and there is a defendable moat. But giving benefit of doubt to analyst and bulls.
Fair stock value with forward p/e of 50
EPS | 3.25 | 4.78 | 6.61
Stock Price | $162.5 | $239 | $330
But if someone is willing to pay 100 times forward earning then you must be smoking some good pot.
EPS | 3.25 | 4.78 | 6.61
Stock Price | $325 | $478 | $661
Duol to ath?Duol made a retracement to the golden pocket, the last point of support according to the algorithmic expansion theory. This price range may represent a potential opportunity. Where do I see the price heading? All-time high, aligned with the second channel of the algorithmic expansion from the bullish breaker. The MACD is also showing momentum.
Not financial advice
Time to finally buy the dip?You’ll hear all these finance bros talking about this stock like it’s the next best thing. Your boy was shorting the highs and exited just before the earnings pop. That was a good move, we had a temporary pop only to quickly fall back down.
I’ve had my levels on this chart ahead of time. It’s hit my target of $297, I’ve finally dipped my toes in as a long, having shorted the sucker to perfection. I’m a huge fan of volatility, high growth and technical charts.
It’s hit the exact 0.618 fib and I took a long. A solid bounce so far. Not financial advice, do what’s best for you.
Duolingo is a must for traders nowDuolingo is a must for traders now
When I see Duolingo’s chart, I feel excitement .
The stock has been on a long-term uptrend, moving inside a clear rising channel, but it has just suffered a pretty sharp drop, almost a 50% decline. That kind of move stings for anyone already holding, but for fresh eyes it feels like an opportunity knocking at the door.
What really jumps out is how perfectly the price has landed on a double safety net : A horizontal support zone that used to be resistance , and the lower boundary of the long-term channel. Whenever two big technical levels overlap like this, I start paying closer attention , because it often means buyers are sitting on the sidelines, waiting for the price to come down to their preferred level before jumping back in.
There are two clear targets: A quick rebound of around 20% if the bounce materializes, and a much larger 50% upside if the stock simply continues riding the channel higher.
In trading terms, this is what we’d call a clean risk/reward setup.
The risk here is very limited
If the price breaks below this support, the thesis is invalid and you cut your losses.
On the other hand, the potential reward is several times larger. Even in the most conservative scenario, you could aim for a 20% profit while risking only about 5% . And remember, that risk is taken with a clear, well-tested support zone, right at the bottom of the channel, and after a 50% decline from the highs.
Now, of course, it’s never just about lines on a chart.
The 15 analysts covering NASDAQ:DUOL remain broadly bullish on Duolingo, with most price targets well above current levels, averaging $450.
That supports the technical case , but we can’t ignore the clouds on the horizon. Slowing user growth could hurt sentiment, competition from new AI-driven education tools is real, and heavy investment in expansion means margins will stay under pressure.
If any of those catalysts flare up, the support we’re leaning on here could give way quickly , but we could also see NASDAQ:DUOL leveraging AI in its favour , so the long term is always grey and I prefer to invest in what I can control.
Still, from a purely tactical point of view, this feels like one of those moments where both chart and fundamentals are in perfect alignment .
The stock has already fallen 50% from its all-time highs, which means the market has priced in a lot of bad news already. For someone willing to take the risk, buying here with a tight stop just under support makes sense: limited downside, plenty of upside.
Personally, I’d frame it like this: short-term traders can aim for the fast 20% rebound, while longer-term investors can think bigger, hold for (at least!) a potential 50% climb back toward the top of the channel, provided they’re comfortable weathering some volatility.
Either way, the golden rule applies: respect the stop. If support breaks, the story changes.
Duol long triggered Updating my DUOL idea. We have triggered the 100 weekly EMA. This sits within a key demand zone. The last time we hit this moving average the stock rallied 200%. Software is the most hated sector in tech right now because of the Ai fud. I tend to be more direct with my worries, if I don’t see it in their financials I don’t worry about it. We needed this reset on the RSI as well.
I started a 25k share position when my alert hit.
8/29/25 - $duol - Remember when...8/29/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:DUOL
Remember when...
- i remember when tsla's headlines used to create fud at uber
- i remember when appl's headlines used to create fud at googl
- i remember when...
- so apparently googl's learning tools are going to threaten duol?
- also remember when every saas tool was going to be built by AI
- and also remember when the stocks this past q all showed "nope" e.g. mdb the other day?
- guys and gals and confused: the market is sometime offering interesting spots to think. it's not always the low. lower lows can always become even lower lows.
- but alas. you woke up today. that's priceless. that's a blessing. so you won today. hug someone. happy labor day weekend (if you're in the US). happy cheaper-to-stack-sats day everyone.
we'll come back to this one next week, but i continue to add.
V
8/12/25 - $duol - Starting small position8/12/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:DUOL
Starting small position
- 40x PE
- growing >30% pa
- great margins
- love how they're expanding the product
- just beat big time, scale software incoming
- cash generative
- not an "obvious" entry, but for HQ names, rarely do you get the chance
- these beat/retrace moves r getting exhausting lately (sigh) but let's note the pattern
- what do u think anon?
V
DuolDo they just run it back after this brutal sell off? They milked the gpt demo pretty good. Most holding shares have to feel so defeated. Might as well sell now before it goes to 250… I’m being sarcastic btw. Actually I hope they do send it to 250, what an opportunity that would be, but I don’t think I’m that lucky. I’m playing a bounce here.
Duolingo - Duo the upsideNASDAQ:DUOL 's major uptrend remain despite a strong sell off on 8 Aug. Short-term bullish strength is seen after a bear trap was seen near key support at 331.32. Bullish divergence was observed and as such, we are confident of the upside going forward. Besides that, stochastic has shown an oversold signal and is likely to see strong upside going forward.
Duol pivot long Teaching sessionDuol had exceptional earnings. This company is heavily Fudded and misunderstood. The massive earnings pump it saw is completely erased. We noted a recent and large capitulation candle with the massive wick, and then a dip towards the 100 EMA that was bought up. The 55 EMA has held up twice, this is the first time this moving average has been broken.
Let's look at the weekly setup from a bird's eye view. Check.
1. Average volume is rising on the weekly check.
2. BBWP was recently elevated and either flashed red or blue. Check
3. Stochastic RSI peaked or bottomed. Check
4. Bounce near a key moving average, 100 EMA. Check
The plan:
If you're bullish on the fundamentals this is a key time to add before a hopeful drop to the EMA.
If youre trading this short term I would expect a bounce and average into shares.
If youre multi week/month swing trading calls 6 months out should pair nicely with the setup.
July 2025 - Duolingo trading opportunityGood news for Duolingo... The chart is now showing some promising signs that it might be ready to turn things around and head higher. Some simple clues why:
RSI resistance breakout:
The "RSI" indicator (bottom of chart) tells us strength is returning. A break of resistance that has been active over the last month is now no more. This usually means the buyers are taking control again.
Hidden strength:
Even though the price might look a bit sleepy, oscillators now print significant bullish divergence with price action.
Past resistance confirms support:
Certainly one of the most simplest concepts to take advantage of, previous resistance now confirms support. This test occurs as price action strikes the 50% Fibonacci level.
20% Forecast
Look left, previously market structure failed. Typically past breaks of structure shall be tested to confirm resistance, which is between 20-30% away.
Is it possible price action continues to print lower lows? Sure.
Is it probable? No.
Ww
Good buying area for DuolThis is a good area to buy Duol, Monthly and Quarterly supports are at 327, could it go lower? Sure it could always go lower, i wouldn't be that shocked if it got into the 200s. This is a very efficient company with no debt, it's rule of 40 score is close to another huge winner of mine, PLTR. I will always buy monthly/quarterly levels on companies like this. I think this could trade in the 600s by the first half of next year.
DUOLINGO BUYSI'm bullish on Duolingo stock overall, and right now it's at a great buying level. The price has pulled back to the same area where it was consolidating in April 2025, which gives a solid support zone. This retracement offers a good discount, so I see it as a strong opportunity to buy in.