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Here is a log-scale chart of 10 Year Interest Rates in the United States as measured by the $TYX Index.
I have noted several important events along the way:
1. 1987 stock market peak and crash
2. 1994 sideways stock market and bond market bear-market that destroyed Long Term Capital Management and their leveraged bets on sub-prime loans while shorting US ...
37 year treasury bull run broken? I think so.
200 MA on MONTHLY resistance for now on 10 year rates.
Expect some consolidation or pull-back,
then China could continue it's dumping of US treasuries to drive rates up.
It will not be boring the next few weeks. You can be sure of that now.
$SPX vs. US 10 Year Yield #SPY $SPY #Yield #WhatsNext
reversal of trend
It is my opinion that bonds are going to be sold off in the coming month as countries race to dump the US treasuries that they hold. The stock market is negatively effected when the bond yields increase. When the 10 year bond yield reaches 3.25% and beyond we are at risk of a massive bond sell off. This sell off in bonds will cripple the stock market and a plunge ...
Looking for 3.10 on 10Y yield to act as support for both dollar and markets overall #ES, #SPY, #NQ. Might be 2-3 days away from the angle it has.
The damage caused by the last breakout to the markets is incalculable.
Using fib channels, it actually structures pretty well to a .618 resistance level and .786 level on the standard fib level. Hopefully we can see the market stabilize if this holds true..
In what I can decribe as the very last wave, this should reverse soon.
TNX just shy of 33.19 measured move
The minute leading diagonal has clearly broken the larger downward wave, which ended in a larger ending diagonal...
Expect a short term pullback to the wave iv level and then a continued rise at least 1.618 times the length of this first leading diagonal wave...
Short term pullback would be consistent with a modest recovery in equities early next week before a ...
This caught my eye. 3.276 should be resistance going back to 1981.
DB PO at 4.6 area $TNX
Seems the narrative at the moment is rates are about to shoot higher...Not according to the chart. Momentum has weakened throughout this rally since '16 and can count possible 5 waves up. If rates fall, then means a rush into bonds, and maybe indicating a risk-off move. The FED announcement should give this the momentum to move one way or the other.
Same as previous chart but long term weekly view
Of course, there are many levels to breach before this secular trend can be declared to have turned. Nothing conclusive therefore.
To me however, the momentum appears to be positive.
If indeed my analysis should come to pass as outlined, many a peripheral countries should find themselves gradually, though rather quickly, further up the proverbial creek.
Interest Rates are back near the highs of 2018.
This strong move up in rates this week is benefiting
the financials the banks XLF, mortgage and insurance companies,
who command higher revenues and profits with the higher loan spread obtained.
At the same time the Utilities XLU were down sharply today,9/19/18
as big money flowed away from interest sensitive ...