When a market moves further and faster than you can imagine, usually there is someone with a large position that is losing in the market and everyone else knows it and is trading against them.
I've seen it too many times before. The biggest one is when Long Term Capital Management owned lower quality bonds and sold short high quality US Treasury Bonds to finance...
Today 10/3/18 the TYX broke above important break above multi - year chart and .618 Fibonacci resistance.
This could be the most important event in the financial markets for 2018,
TYX has a strong probability to reach at least 4.00 %.
The entire yield curve will also probably have a strong move up.
This will be interesting to keep an eye on over the coming years.
If the ending triangle is a wave C diagonal, then it would signal the end of the down-trend in yields over the past 23+ years. Zero fundamental analysis was conducted, but it would seem there is upward pressure on yields at a time that 10 year T bonds is in a corrective phase - down 12+% from 2012...
As seen by the S-curve pattern on the 4hr time frame, $TYX price action seen challenging June 6th highs of 31.40, after Friday's sell-off. Had it not been for Friday's selloff, price action was set to stay below 29.50, at levels along the downward sloping trend line. Next week could set the stage on whether traders will push price action higher, or be challenged...
30 year represents long term growth expectations, the 10 year has already broken out as linked below. This down trend is not as clean of a break as that one and will need a continuation after today's test the of February highs. 10s 2s spread hit ~39bps recently now at 49bps. If we get a confirmation the first target is 3.74 as a measured move which happens...
TYX aka 30 year treasury yields seem to be on the verge of ending it's 30 year downtrend. Short term ripe for a move down considering overhead resistance, but long term seems more likely to move up or sideways rather than lower considering it is near it's apex and shorter term rates are already strong.
Is the 40-year bond bull market coming to an end?
1)If rates rise, what is traditional wisdom saying about bond prices?
2)18-years going down in the chart, but I bet you one thing: that bond (30yr) was 15% in 1982; do some research.
3)Another Trend 101 comment: What happens when prices close and open above its 50-EMA? I am positive you DO know the answer.