I have been finding VIX3M provides a lot smoother and cleaner version of the vix. As you can see before significant vix spikes there are signals that take 6 months+ to develop. Before vix spikes we can see the loss in momentum when vix starts to base failing to make new lows or significant new lows as well as MACD starts up-trending on the weekly chart. I have...
The problem with the worlds economies reopening now is the stock markets already priced in the reopening over the past year with lower inflation numbers and massive QE.
How do the markets avoid hitting this inflation wall?
Fed says it's "transitory", is there enough QE left to jump this wall?
How does one chart "transition" with indicators?
Ever chart I pull...
Past instances of this extreme in vix term structure has marked a short-term bottom, followed by continued selling over the following weeks and months.
A Tweet from Tracy Alloway with Bloomberg caught my eye this morning (twitter.com). She points out that the one-month VIX just tipped over the 3-month VXV. While this has happened many times in the past, I did notice that there is a rather large divergence between the VXV/VIX ratio and the SPX right now. The chart says it all folks. This certainly doesn't...
Volatility continues to be "crushed." Reviewing the VXV to VIX ratio we can see high probability shorts and pull-backs. As long as the ratio remains range bound the markets will remain within striking distance of "highs"
Volatility traders over the last weeks have been seeing a "flattening" of volatility structure and have not been getting the returns they were expecting for contango trades. (If you want to see contango at work, pull up a 5 year chart of UVXY. Those losses? Contango.)
These charts show what is happening. The VIX (short term volatility) is rising from its...
By the solid blue line represented S&P500 shows lower low and lower high in April .
Relation of VXV (CBOE S&P500 3-M Volatlity) and VIX (CBOE Volatlity) - candle chart - gives us information about the VIX term structure (VXV/VIX>1 => contango, VXV/VIX<1 backwardation). The lower the number, the higher the possibility of correction within 3Mo (by exhausting)...
