Much better to panic early than late.
The VX1-VX2 spread helps you define when market participants are starting to panic. The backwardation / reversal is a sign that market participants are starting to panic. In this sense we can use it as a risk mitigation tool, including the distributions of returns for the stock market and the volatility when futures are in...
Spot Vix - 22.05
VXZ - 21.45
VXF - 23.70
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Tomorrow the New Continuous Contact for the VIX will begin trading.
To project Price we need to consider the VXZ / VXF Spread (Roll Yield) and
use Draws for both months to determine the Point of Convergence for Price
based upon Draws for both...
ES makes a Lower Low, VIX Higher Low.
Sounds about correct for the VX Complex.
Trading the 50 with no break yet implies a RAT for Indexes.
.382s remains the RT POs as weakness is prevalent.
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Keeping VX collared is not working, the E YM NQ RTY continue
to sell to lower POs.
Proximity to Margin Calls is the...
The NQ will have the wider swings into Year-End
as the Range has expanded from 150616 to 16302.
The VIX may range into Year-End permitting the ES
to build out the Symmetry.
The NYSE Remains collared at the Lower end of the
Range.
VX has been compressing into Year-End.
Wednesday will confirm as 96% of m1 is loaded
on the CM-30...
Over 23.60 and the VIX remains in a Bid and a Long.
It has become far less technical than the Indexes.
Roll to settle is creating an Arbitrage which is suppressing
the VXZ VXF VXX.
VX Complex collared by the Operators.
VXF continues to struggle at Cloud Momentum.
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4X Expiry and enormous Ranges on each...
2:30 to 3:00 PM EST today will provide indications for Globex this evening.
Should they follow the usual suit, the Indexes will begin to grind higher into
the Close.
All of the leaders, with the exception of FB - were sold.
Continued Distribution.
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With VXZ and SPOT/CASH VIX near Par and 100%...
200+ Ticks to Gap Fill
VXZ M1 / V1 lower Gap Fill
Continuous Contract simulated in next Commentary.
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ES breaks ATH this week and M1 will correct sharply.
There are complications into next week.
In order to avoid the Dramas associated with these opposing forces - permit
me to infer the extremes have never quite been this degree of a Cluster F_ck.
Fail on Drama, apologies
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An "offsides trade" is again forming as I see 4X Negative Divergences...
Down form 398 of the prior Settle.
Contango in the Curve remains strong
but coming in 26% Month over Month.
The VIX Range 20.35 is the LIS
19.70 a break.
The prior 398 Tick Settlement has declined to ~269 Ticks.
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Daily Low VX Price Objective remains 12.25.
It is difficult to Imagine - A VIX print this Low.
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December has become a significantly distorted Settlement Month
for Equity Future...
20.10 will be the KEY Level for the M2 CT.
December holds the Keys to today as NOV
is sold...
Unless it is held onto...
We shall see.
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A bid for Protection would affect both M1 / M2 until Settle.
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Friday - have not had a deeply Red Friday in quite a while.
This will get interesting as Price begins to resolve the Continuous Contract for the VIX M1/M2.
The prior October Range: 14.70 -24.00
As November begins to square Price is within the Window for the potential of the VIX reversing
Up @ 9.89% of Settlements.
Effectively placing Price in a Desert, a nowhere landscape.
The Monthly Trend is quite Clear with a...
September Closed the @ 19.71 yesterday, an important Level for the
Continuous Contract to Observe, for now, it will change again.
CASH/SPOT VIX @ 17.81 this morning.
CSH Will Converge to M1 (October) into next Tuesday/Wednesday.
There will be a Gap in the Continuous Contract as long as the VX Curve
remains in Contango - presently the spread is 205 Ticks x 1,...
Important Note, the Roll Yield is important for the VXX.
I have heard countless YouTube and Forum Gurus dismiss
the VXX as a Junk Derivative. A Scam...
Nothing is further from the Truth.
That statement demonstrates how there are far too many
"Gurus" with no understanding of Volatility itself.
The VXX is comprised of the 30 day Short Term Rolling...
Next Wednesday the M2 will "Settle" becoming the Front Month or M1.
100% of the Constant 30 Day Maturity will be concentrated on this Date.
Each day thereafter, M1 will begin to flow to M2 (December 2021) at a rate
of roughly 3-4% per day, depending on Traading/Calendar Days.
When the VIX Curve is in Contango - M2, M3, M4 higher than M1 we will see
a Gap left...
Today will determine as to whether this SELL takes a breather and provides
a large retracement for the ES YM RTY and NQ
OR Continues
Buyers are on Strike, Sellers need to be the new Buyers.
VIX Settlement is today - Price has a Gap to Fill Below.
We will be waiting for the Range within the Micros and larger Daily
Timeframes to resolve prior to...
