Hi friends! Welcome to this update analysis on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, via the DJI (YM) Futures Contract. In this analysis, we are going to assess the incredible similarities, between the present day technicals, and the patterns that were created at the beginning of the 2008 financial crisis.
To begin, I would like to draw your attention to the left...
Dow Jones is the weakest US index.
Trend is down as highlighted by the key daily level break and the 55 SMA Slope.
Everyhing hinges on US/China trade talks so we would wait until the US Cash Open
before trading and would prefer a continuation break on bad news.
The Fed's dovish shift in 2019 that pushed prices higher has been overshadowed by ramped up tension on the global trade front. This should continue to be a drag on investor sentiment until other factors prevail.
Our bias remains down on the Dow, as highlighted by the 55 SMA Slope and the fact we have not yet broken key resistance areas.
It will be tricky today....
Dow Jones remains the weakest US index and is in a downtrend as highlighted by the 55 SMA slope.
The downtrend is generated by the US/China trade war issues. Headline risk is present.
We favour further downside through the continuation level.
on the weekly chart probable triple top forming, slow stochastic turning downward above 80, a neckline is breaking on a weekly head & shoulder formation. Sell rallies.
Directional movement is stalled currently, as highlighted by the lateral 55 SMA.
We need a break of either the short-term support or short-term resistance in order to start
trending movement again.
Patience is required for now.
The long bias was flipped by President Trump's new escalation of the US/China Trade War.
Whether it is a bluff or not is yet to be seen. For now, charts point lower.
Short-term resistance and continuation levels highlighted.
Challenging action to trade, especially ahead of Non-Farm Payrolls. However, momentum remains to the downside for now.
Short-term resistance and continuation levels highlighted.
Wall Street has proved once again they can do whatever they want, and ignore longer term patterns, but eventually they have to let it fall again as proved by the years 2015 and 2018. I tend to arrive to conclusions early before everyone else sees the Elliot Wave counts
and patterns.
It seems significant that the Dow is now negative on the week after pushing to new highs.
We see this as possible short-term shift in sentiment and we favour short-term shorts for the time being.
Following the wave count, at least a small correction should happen around these levels. We have had 5 waves up and a small ascending wedge broken, possibly starting the correction. First level to watch would be the support of the pennant, around 25500.
In case we break 26700, we are very likely to make a new all time high.
Short term support and continuation levels highlighted. Be aware that equities failed to rally on good news from China today. This is a signal of caution.
Near-term support level and continuation highlighted.
Key for this trend will be US earnings again today (and all week) a well as China GDP data (tomorrow).
Short term Elliott Wave view on Dow Jones Future (YM_F) suggests that rally from March 9, 2019 low is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. In the chart above, we can see wave (2) ended at 25448. Now wave (3) ended at around 26507.
Up from 25448, wave 1 ended at 25823, wave 2 ended at 25744, wave 3 ended at 26289, and wave 4 ended at 26126 and...
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YM1!
