On the chart, Oct '94 is a pre-test of 92.26 I'm not sure it's a good example here, but it'll suffice to explain this easy concept. Again, it's not the system's behavior principle, the reason of this microstructural phenomenon is all of us. Forgot to mention before... There's no such thing as, "A new wave started after "almost" hitting a level". NO. In 100%...
Eurodollar vs Fed funds, price discovery of fed interest rate
Expecting a second retest next year. Maybe at 13.5K range. Hopefully also when recession hits USA and FED pivots .
SYSTEMIC RISK !!!!!! OF FAILURE .So does anyone here think that the central Banks are in major trouble or am I the ONLY by the EXIT
This chart is a bit odd because I have drawn a curved trendline that seems to fit. There have in the past been several bounces off this curved trendline. However, in recent weeks this has broken. I'm not sure what this means but possibly higher interest rates ahead?
More rate hikes by the Federal Reserve are coming as predicted by Eurodollar futures.
Bull flags are found in charts with strong uptrends and are considered continuation patterns. They form when price barely subsides as the oscillators revert downward, such that when the oscillators are ready to move up again, rapid increases in price recur. Below are some bull flags with bearish implications that suggest perhaps more economic pain is to come in...
Traders, As you know, EuroDollar Futures has been one of the lead indicators regarding Fed rate hike action. As the futures drop, the inverse occurs with the U.S. dollar (DXY). It goes up. Likewise, the Fed tends to respond with a rate hike in accordance with the gravity of the EuroDollar's move down. Yesterday, the drop was huge after the CPI report was...
Is the Eurodollar giving us some hints into the mind of JPOW and the fed?
Lower, far lower lows are ahead. SPY Gaps: 400.76 338.66 285.67 235.77 Every one of these will be filled from October 2023 to March 2024. The DX will return to 125. Bond Yields 4 to 6% at a minimum regardless of the FED's utter nonsense. _____________________________________________________________ Keep it simple, the Indices will...
A lifelong student of Monetary History, Macro/Micro Economics - at this particular point in time, an obligation needs to be fulfilled. We tend to be Anglo-Centric as Americans. Yes, we do observe Global Markets and their underlying dynamics as core to one's thesis for Trading purposes. All is well and good in that vain. Unfortunately, it is barely the tip of...
Fed Funds and Divergences with Eurodollar spread and US Bonds spreads
Fed Funds and Divergences with Eurodollar spread and US Bonds spreads
The EuroDollar futures market is pricing in rate hikes as seen by the upward slope on the left, but the peak of the curve (contracts which expire in June and September of 2023) suggests that investors believe rates will reach their high and then go down after that and keep going down well into the foreseeable future. This is an ominous sign that the Federal...
... for a $215 debit. Comments: I opened these for a $25/contract debit wayyy back in February of 2021 (See Post Below) when /GE was trading above 99.75, betting that -- at some point -- Eurodollar futures would return to their prepandemic levels and gave the play oodles of time to work out. Closed them on Friday for $210/contract with 268 days to go, with /GE...
Eurodollar vs Fed funds, price discovery of fed interest rate
... (long put vertical) for a .25/contract debit. Notes: Here a bearish assumption bet that 3 month Libor returns to pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2022 (i.e., below 98.50). Risking .25 ($25) to make 6.00 ($600). Obviously, an extremely long duration trade, but with a 24:1 reward:risk ratio.
TLDR: USD⬇️/ BONDS ⬇️ / SPY ⬆️ / Inflation ⬆️ Eurodollars are USD holdings by banks outside of the US (ie. outside of the reach of the Fed). They're the evolution of banker's acceptance notes, & used for interbank transactions. Think of it like 'electroninc banker dollars'. Eurodollars make up 90% of all international loans. $GE1! (their futures) are the...