Cattle futures have gotten hit hard over the last few weeks as headline risk coupled with bearish seasonal tendencies have led to long liquidation from Funds.
The selling pressure accelerated on March 26th as headlines of Avian flue spreading to (dairy) cattle in Texas and Kansas swept across all the different agricultural news wires and raised concerns of...
Volatile Hogs market trying to decide between short term top and reversal. We will go for the less risk set up which in our opinion will be to buy April Hogs 84.20 limit, stop 82.90, tgt at 87.90
This commodity has been trending since 2020, and recently made a new high just after a moderate pullback.
It is going up in a straight line, currently hovering around resistance/support, the MA100 started pointing up and the price made a bullish pattern.
The target for such a pattern is approximately the size of the pole which brings us to about 210.
With...
Cattle futures just came back to previous resistance. we had a really good rejections.
I expect donwside movement.
Dont forget to setup the stop loss!!!
Brazilian cattle had a potential up leg.. but it wasnt sustained by demand...mainly due our main buyer is china that actually is not in a good economic shape. For moment trend down!
Technical Outlook:
Live Cattle futures have enjoyed a tremendous rally over the last 3 weeks - up nearly $10 since just the beginning of February. But is the rally showing fatigue? Prices are beginning to stall out near the 61.8% retracement of the all-time-highs in October to the lows in late December. Moreover, momentum signatures are slowing - showing...
Active COT Signal and downtrend on weekly:
The 1d bearish market structure is still in place.
On the 4h timeframe a small correction is confirmed and upper range of 1d market structure. If next 4h candle close below last low then lower high is confirmed and 4h down trend is in line with weekly and daily time Frame
RR: 1:2
Make your own decisions!
So leanhogs price just got out of the range.
Now there is 2 option:
!. First> retest the zone and go upside
2. Classic Wyckoff distribution with an uptrust. Potential short.
Lets wait for confirmation!
CME: Lean Hog ( CME:HE1! )
Throughout 2023, U.S. grocery shoppers find that beef prices rise rapidly. According to the National Daily Cattle and Beef report, published by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Choice Beef averaged $290 per cwt (100 pounds) on December 8th. This represents a 16% increase year-over-year and is 21% above the 5-year average.
In...
In a previous article, "A Beefy Premium" , we delved into the growing divergence between Live Cattle and Lean Hogs. Since then, this disparity has only broadened.
Currently, we're seeing a historic peak in both the absolute price difference (Live Cattle – Lean Hog) and the price ratio (Live Cattle/Lean Hog). To comprehend the drivers of this divergence,...
Rising wedge. 60% of these break down. Confluently, the monthly stochastic RSI is topping and the monthly RSI is screaming overbought. I expect a possible and highly probable drawdown of 7-13% over the next 6-9 months. Nothing is for certain, however, so please exercise sound risk management.
