PT: 475 EOY
This ties into my other macroeconomic forecasts... Just a piece of the puzzle.
Lumber is the starting thread of 2 of next campaigns.
A sneak peak:
- Housing market will crash.
- Canada is in big, big trouble.
At around 489 price level in Nov last year , I made a trade call to go long on this futures. Those who followed me would have made a 2 fold returns on this futures in 6 weeks or less time.
Congratulations on that ! Now that it has dropped more than 30% from the peak at 900, I believe a 2nd rally is imminent. But whether it can break out of 900 price level as...
$LUMBER - Pushing back towards all time highs, however the 12Month ROC is still extremely elevated, in the 99th percentile of all time, likely a bit extended and the supply/demand dynamics should start stabilizing as (knock on wood) these second wave of lockdowns ease up
Just listened to a great interview on the Market Huddle podcast feat. Michael A. Gayed from the Lead / Lag report. Great interview!
So one of his leading indicators discussed was the LBS/GLD ratio and it actually correlates quite well. Although it predicted the 2018 Christmas crash much more distinctly (with a slight trend break down to the trend line false...
Paras harga dalam bentuk uptrending. Jika dilihat, lumber sangat positive daripada beberapa minggu yg lepas.
Kemungkinan harga lumber boleh menuju ke paras 970.9 sebelum membuat reversal. Namun harga yang uptrending, boleh ke dia menuju ke atas dan semakin ke atas lagi ?
Tayor bagi pemegang kaunter kayu...