Crude oil may not be done going down just yet. There are numerous examples of resistance drawn that continue on the bigger picture to be defended. Within the next $20-40 we could see another short term trading top, and then a decline to the $200 level as seen back in 2016. Time will tell, but cutting back supply recently may not be enough to keep the rally...
textbook retrace into the 5th major wave down. So far the waves have been absolutely perfect. Notice the 5 minor waves down at the top, followed by a retrace that formed the 2nd major wave.
And then you can see another 5 minor waves down again forming the 3rd major wave.
Currently, we are in the final phase of the 4th major wave retrace. And consequently, the...
This is an interesting relationship to me. Lumber prices are highly tied to the housing market as home building demand primarily affects lumber since our houses are made out of the stuff. Housing also reflects a broader sentiment in the overall economy.
Waiting for a lumber pullback into a potential long area.
- Right now, the housing numbers are keeping the buyers away but everything could change as soon as the snow melt
- RSI is approaching the oversold area
- A nice zone between 365-375 with multiple touches
Lumber is building an interesting range bottom pattern.
The rising highs indicate somewhat buying interest, but the current resistance at 373 held multiple times in the past.
If it does act as resistance once again, it might be possible to time a short trade on the lower timeframes. The last daily candle already indicates slowing momentum.
A break above the...
They call it "Dr. Copper", saying that prices are predicting the economy. But lumber might be a far better predictor, see how weakening lumber prices preceded downturns. From that perspective, recent selloff might be ominous.
I am long 1 contract, roughly $41000 in exposure.
1) I am not exactly a large trader.
2) This market is volatile.
3) This market isn't liquid.
That being said. A swing back to test $400 and after some time, $450.
We are still at historically high prices for this market but on a YTD relative basis, we should find short term support.
We called the top accurately...