Today I took 3 losses. It was a really bad trading day. I didn't really follow my plan on the day and took 2 unnecessary losses. The one loss of the 3 I can live with but, I have to do better. There wasn't much give from the market today.
Today was yet another amazing trade off a long term volume profile level for over 50 points on the CME_MINI:ES1! S&P500 E-mini futures.
I want to document these trades as teachable moments because I think Volume Profile is an absolutely amazing tool that should be in ever trader's toolbox!
Not actively trading but took a look for my followers.
Indicators are not oversold yet, wait for one more drop if you plan to play the bounce. Be careful playing the dip though, AAPL could lose support and my favorite stock, PCAR, took a shit today.
S&P 500 E-Mini Futures rallies in an impulse structure from 10.27.2023 low. Up from there, wave 1 ended at 4607.75 and pullback in wave 2 ended at 4548.75. The Index then extended higher in wave 3 towards 5333.5 as the 1 hour chart below shows. Pullback in wave 4 unfolded as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave 3, wave ((a)) ended at 5235 and rally in...
Boy the market is moving fast. RSI already hit oversold.
Closed out my puts, going all cash for the weekend. If Iran doesn't do anything, we'll probably see another pump Monday, lol.
Crazy whipsaw market, pay attention to the channel I drew (unless Iran actually does something)
I think video, I covered an awesome pullback day. Where we could've entered, what the week looked like to me and what I expect next week without doing my weekend analysis.
Looks to me like it;s headed up for a day at least. PPI numbers were good.
Remember how I said yesterday that it'll be a much easier trade if teh market gaps down? The gap up sold off then the market bounced back. FDAX is oversold so went long but cashing out tomorrow.
Expecting indicators to go further oversold before a real bounce. You figure all the idiots that bought yesterday have to sell.
Also, I'm convinced the drop last week was because the numbers leaked out. How hard is it to bribe govt statisticians?
Was tempted to do a gap fill play on PCAR but will wait until tomorrow to go long.
I might play the bounce if we get a big gap down tomorrow with my 3hr chart going oversold, but I think the next big bounce doesn't happen until the daily indicators go oversold.
If you like to play it safe, and you don't watch the market on a daily basis, I suggest waiting a couple of weeks, maybe 3. CPE numbers don't come out until April 26th, which happens to...
All 3 indicators are oversold, but quite frankly I'm not very bullish. I'd rather short the pumps at this point. Probably not trading tomorrow.
My best guess is that Israel will attack on April 26th, because it's my birthday, lol.
For the first time in 2024 the US Stock Market's S&P 500 has shown TWO bearish signs at once this week.
In any given year statistically one can expect 2 or 3 corrections of -5% to -10%. It is now month 4 of 2024 and we are due.
In this video I talk about the two signs (False Breakout Monday, Break and Hold Resistance Thursday) that came together to signal the...
ES hit the bottom trendline, but like I said last week, I'm not going long until both RSI and MFI hit oversold. Quit frankly I'm scared to hold any long position overnight, so probably just gonna day trade tomorrow if it does go oversold.
I didn't post this morning because I wasn't quite sure what the market was gonna do, MFI hit oversold premarket, but the...
At the last new ATH I published a suggestion that we had hit a major top. That we might continue down for a while... It happen on a 2 hour chart we are in wave c down. PTs in
blue at Fibonacci levels, with Squeeze stochs changing to strong selling.
These levels match Pivot Point levels S5, S6 and beyond. But i don't expect us to go beyond S6 and stay there...
Rapidly approaching oversold, lol.
Really odd market though, gold and oil gave up the morning pump, it;s like everyone's just going cash, bonds are up. Also, PCAR got the gap fill despite the market, didn't play it because I didn't think the risk was worth a buck movement.
I don't like the fact that the market didn't bounce with MFI oversold on my 3 hr chart, so at this point, I'm inclined to wait until the daily indicators go oversold before buying the dip.
Why give away your profits for the year? Makes more sense to be cautious. Gonna sit back and watch Iran and Israel do their thing.
We've been making lower highs for a while. If this pattern is to hold we'd have optimal shorting entries here.
We are rallying strong into the 76 retracement, triggering a possible 76 reversal:
Based on the fundamentals that we saw coming out on Friday, the market response in the S&P 500 is an anxiety attack based on a nervous outlook for the market. I do not look for a dramatic move lower on Monday without new fundamental information to create an increase in anxiety.
