Forgive me for using MES, but it’s easier because I don’t have to clear any existing markup. I’ve been watching this H&S pattern form for a while now and looks very clean on the 8 hour chart here. The measured move for the breakdown takes us to 5000. I expect that we retest the neckline and clean up the imbalances (FVGs) in the process before we ultimately get...
I don't like the fact that the market didn't bounce with MFI oversold on my 3 hr chart, so at this point, I'm inclined to wait until the daily indicators go oversold before buying the dip.
Why give away your profits for the year? Makes more sense to be cautious. Gonna sit back and watch Iran and Israel do their thing.
Trading Plan for Wednesday, April 17th, 2024
Market Sentiment: Uncertain, as investors digest comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and assess their implications on the timing of potential rate cuts.
Key Supports
Immediate Supports: 5091, 5082 (major), 5076, 5068 (major)
Major Supports: 5046-51 (major), 5038 (major), 4996-5000 (major)
Key...
The S&P futures is quite weak after strong USD retail sales data. This move opposes a rational reaction to data that came out better than forecasted by a good margin. The market is pulling back and continuing the bearish momentum from the previous week. This may have to do with the conflict between Israel and Iran, this retracement back down. Oil is pushing up and...
We've been making lower highs for a while. If this pattern is to hold we'd have optimal shorting entries here.
We are rallying strong into the 76 retracement, triggering a possible 76 reversal:
The S&P 500 is bearish and heading towards the price zone of 4499.50 and 4430.50 before rising to create a new all-time high."
Cela semble indiquer que vous prévoyez une baisse temporaire du S&P 500 vers les niveaux de prix mentionnés, avant qu'il ne reprenne sa tendance haussière et crée de nouveaux sommets historiques.
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traduit moi ça en...
Boy the market is moving fast. RSI already hit oversold.
Closed out my puts, going all cash for the weekend. If Iran doesn't do anything, we'll probably see another pump Monday, lol.
Crazy whipsaw market, pay attention to the channel I drew (unless Iran actually does something)
This is nothing new TBH. Strong work on the weekends pays off during the week. Today we had another downward trend day that saw sellers become buyers and then back to sellers again trapping bulls. This should add conviction for an overnight leg down. Several pullbacks appeared that would've paid off today as well.
Well, I posted last night that I wasn't gonna trade. Expecting a bounce tomorrow, but probably too small to make it wort teh risk. If a market can melt up, it can melt down as well.
My advice is to just stay cash and take a break.
The price action that we saw in the S&P 500 on Tuesday has the potential for a change in market direction. The key on Wednesday would be for the market to trade above Tuesday's high and give a stronger close above that high.
By examining the ES1! 4-hour chart (S&P), we can figure out that, the market structure is bearish, so we looking for a sell position.
In that case, the price had a bearish reaction to all of the bearish Pd Array, so we can expect a bearish reaction on the balance price range (BPR).
In my perspective, sell-side liquidity is a draw on liquidity. Until this...
All 3 indicators are oversold, but quite frankly I'm not very bullish. I'd rather short the pumps at this point. Probably not trading tomorrow.
My best guess is that Israel will attack on April 26th, because it's my birthday, lol.
We might be in bearish Elliot waves here on ES / SPX.
If we are, there's a good chance we are at a low point now and due to enter into an ABC correction.
A two leg spike with a bear trap (But no new low) in the middle.
Sets up a possible high RR short on the C point.
Most of the previous short forecast has hit now.
The S&P 500 is officially bearish as of Fridays close according to my intuition and strategy. I will be watching closely this week - targeting shorts around 5240. I expect to see a test the 5060-5000 level.
A daily close above 5240 would be bullish and invalidates this idea.
In the mid-term, I'm targeting key levels of interest to buy once this dip finds legs.
At the last new ATH I published a suggestion that we had hit a major top. That we might continue down for a while... It happen on a 2 hour chart we are in wave c down. PTs in
blue at Fibonacci levels, with Squeeze stochs changing to strong selling.
These levels match Pivot Point levels S5, S6 and beyond. But i don't expect us to go beyond S6 and stay there...
I think video, I covered an awesome pullback day. Where we could've entered, what the week looked like to me and what I expect next week without doing my weekend analysis.
