Today was yet another amazing trade off a long term volume profile level for over 50 points on the CME_MINI:ES1! S&P500 E-mini futures. I want to document these trades as teachable moments because I think Volume Profile is an absolutely amazing tool that should be in ever trader's toolbox!
Today I took 3 losses. It was a really bad trading day. I didn't really follow my plan on the day and took 2 unnecessary losses. The one loss of the 3 I can live with but, I have to do better. There wasn't much give from the market today.
RSI hit oversold last night, expecting a rebound next week. Decided to take a small long position with both calls and stocks, don;t really trust this market, lol.
WTF was that? 15 minute pump, 15 minute dump. Talk about a bull trap. I don't recommend going long until after Israel bombs Iran, that should cause the daily to go oversold. Look to play the bounce a day or two after it happens. Note: 15 min chart, ignore the indicators, they just show up because of my template
I think video, I covered an awesome pullback day. Where we could've entered, what the week looked like to me and what I expect next week without doing my weekend analysis.
Forgive me for using MES, but it’s easier because I don’t have to clear any existing markup. I’ve been watching this H&S pattern form for a while now and looks very clean on the 8 hour chart here. The measured move for the breakdown takes us to 5000. I expect that we retest the neckline and clean up the imbalances (FVGs) in the process before we ultimately get...
Boy the market is moving fast. RSI already hit oversold. Closed out my puts, going all cash for the weekend. If Iran doesn't do anything, we'll probably see another pump Monday, lol. Crazy whipsaw market, pay attention to the channel I drew (unless Iran actually does something)
Well, I posted last night that I wasn't gonna trade. Expecting a bounce tomorrow, but probably too small to make it wort teh risk. If a market can melt up, it can melt down as well. My advice is to just stay cash and take a break.
I don't like the fact that the market didn't bounce with MFI oversold on my 3 hr chart, so at this point, I'm inclined to wait until the daily indicators go oversold before buying the dip. Why give away your profits for the year? Makes more sense to be cautious. Gonna sit back and watch Iran and Israel do their thing.
All 3 indicators are oversold, but quite frankly I'm not very bullish. I'd rather short the pumps at this point. Probably not trading tomorrow. My best guess is that Israel will attack on April 26th, because it's my birthday, lol.
ES hit the bottom trendline, but like I said last week, I'm not going long until both RSI and MFI hit oversold. Quit frankly I'm scared to hold any long position overnight, so probably just gonna day trade tomorrow if it does go oversold. I didn't post this morning because I wasn't quite sure what the market was gonna do, MFI hit oversold premarket, but the...
Not oversold yet, if you're looking to play the bounce, I suggest waiting until next week. I anticipate an Israeli attack before Monday anyways.
Based on the fundamentals that we saw coming out on Friday, the market response in the S&P 500 is an anxiety attack based on a nervous outlook for the market. I do not look for a dramatic move lower on Monday without new fundamental information to create an increase in anxiety.
We might be in bearish Elliot waves here on ES / SPX. If we are, there's a good chance we are at a low point now and due to enter into an ABC correction. A two leg spike with a bear trap (But no new low) in the middle. Sets up a possible high RR short on the C point. Most of the previous short forecast has hit now.
By examining the ES1! 4-hour chart (S&P), we can figure out that, the market structure is bearish, so we looking for a sell position. In that case, the price had a bearish reaction to all of the bearish Pd Array, so we can expect a bearish reaction on the balance price range (BPR). In my perspective, sell-side liquidity is a draw on liquidity. Until this...
Trends into today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots (ES Contract) 30m - 5111 Uptrend (4/17/2024) Lower High 1Hr - 5220 Downtrend (4/12/2024) Lower Low 2Hr - 5203 Downtrend (4/12/2024) Lower Low 3Hr - 5197 Downtrend (4/4/2024) Lower Low 4Hr - 5197 Downtrend (4/4/2024) Lower Low 6Hr - 5250 Downtrend (4/2/2024) Higher Low 12Hr - 5204 Downtrend (4/4/2024) Higher...
Trading Plan for Tuesday, April 16th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Uncertain, with geopolitical headlines and market volatility remaining dominant factors. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5102-05 (major), 5092 (major), 5079 Major Supports: 5067 (major), 5050-52 (major), 5039 (major), 5000 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5115, 5126 (major), 5136-39...
Rapidly approaching oversold, lol. Really odd market though, gold and oil gave up the morning pump, it;s like everyone's just going cash, bonds are up. Also, PCAR got the gap fill despite the market, didn't play it because I didn't think the risk was worth a buck movement.