NQ Year End Range (11-17-25)Recent price action is looking like what we saw late 2024 into 2025, prior to 26% drop (Feb,25). You can view the Post here:
The lift back up from the 26% drop has been a 60% run up on low volume, including the 10 minute 12% pop from Wash ST. "time to buy" Tweet. NAZ under long term TL (Orange trendline), needs to get above. Yellow line is drop trade and white is drop/pop trade. 294,910 - 25,910 is the Churn Range and look for a breakout. Below 24,910 is drop testing and looking for bounce back up, any lift near 25,910 (during the Overnight) should drop back inside Churn Zone.
Trade ideas
BTD ChallengeThree Step Challenge.
Day Trading Nasdaq-100 Futures.
I "Bachelor's"
II "Master's"
III "Phd"
I "Bachelor's"
A. Workshop: five tabs plus a reliable business news service
*1. www.marketwatch.com
*2. 4 Hour chart
***a. Session Volume Profile
***b. volume bars
*3. Daily chart
***a. volume bars
***b. 50-d simple moving average
***c. 200-d simple moving average
*4. 1 Hour chart
***a. Visible Range Volume Profile
***b. volume bars
*5. 5-minute chart
***a. volume bars
*6. Business news Fox, MSNBC, Bloomberg etc
Yesterday's chart was all about an outstanding, high probability win rate Buy the Dip plan. Now we shall earn a B.D. in BTD trades for the Nasdaq-100 futures. This will be applicable to the Dow, S&P 500 and the Russ 2000 futures. We shall go on to earn a Master's and then a Ph.D.. At the end you will be one of the best Buy the Dip traders on the planet.
The old ladies taught this trader how to outline in the fourth grade. He doesn't represent this as their best teaching but as his best (poor) remembrance.
He will stumble and bumble, but we'll get to the end. Let's call step 1 a Bachelor of Buying the Dip Degree - B.BTD.
Above is a rough outline of his workshop. If you like it use it. You are a unique individual. Do what works for you.
Expect additions, subtractions, revisions, anecdotes and, hopefully, facts.
NQ Targets (11-24-25)The downtrend is on and will play inside the Diablo's (red diagonal lines) until breakout. 24,600 to 24,056 is Churn Zone and 24,708 and 24,226 are KL's to watch for opposite direction trades 1st and follow through 2nd. NAZ did come close to -10% level in the overnight, popped back up on a Friday (typical). The original Short call was aiming at all the O/N gaps up from prior Rig lift (from O/N), these have been cleaned out. The NDX chart will show these that started on 10/24 through 10/29. Note, from here the math gets interesting and can be illustrated on the NDX chart. We may see heavier selling in the O/N as 11/20 was an outside day reversal close. Notice on the NDX chart that the recent 58% lift can erased will only a 37% drop and the YTD 24% high is erased will only a 19% drop. Heavy volume lower after light volume (off session) lift. Keep in mind that the O/N has a new limit down of -7% (old was -5%). Keep in mind the drawdown math effect = pain. Unless we see a retest that can get above NDX Danger Zone and get back above the Upper TZ or long term trendline (orange, 25,095). NDX 25,095 - 23,233 is Churn Zone until breakout. NQ - NDX differential is about 200 points.
NDX Chart
If Nasdaq can crack the pressure line then...🔱 We have a Hagopian on the down-move. 🔱
Price was (so far) not able to reach the L-MLH of the red fork.
If buyers can eat through the pressure cheese, then the Long-Play is on.
Most often we see price breaking the pressure line and then coming back to it, scaring out the early longs, just to rush upwards again. So don’t panic if this happens. Place a proper stop and you're good.
As for targets, there is the red Centerline and the white Centerline.
On a break of the red CL, we have a high chance to see the same scenario as with the pressure line: UP-Down-MoreUp.
First snow in Switzerland arrived and Santa is preparing the reindeer to bring us some dough ;-)
Wish you all a profitable Friday.
NASDAQ 100 (NQ1!): Time To Buy This Dip? Oh Yeah!Welcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast for the week of Nov. 10-14th.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX market: NASDAQ (NQ1!) NAS100
The NASDAQ pulled back after rallying for weeks! We patiently waited for a dip buying opportunity to form. Well, Friday might have given us the indication of an end to the pullback... and the opportunity to buy the dip may be upon us!
Wait for the shift in the market structure from bearish to bullish to form... then look for your
valid long setups.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
NASDAQ 100 (NQ1!): Wait For Price To Reach -FVG!Welcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast for the week of Nov. 17-21st.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX market: NASDAQ (NQ1!) NAS100
The NASDAQ gave some bearish-neutral price action last week. It ended in a doji candle, not giving us much in the way of directioin. But, there is a bearish FVG on the Daily TF formed. The reaction to it will provide all the insight we need regarding the directional bias of this market for this coming week.
If the -FVG holds, sell it. If it is disrespected, buy it.
Simple.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Nasdaq Big crash is started from november 2025 month. Good luck.Technically on charts, Nasdaq has completed its viscous fed liquidity supported; all 5 elliot waves starting from 2001 dot com low 797 to present year high 26399. Today is 20.11.2025. Pic is attached for your reference. Will see this chart again after a year or may become obsolelte if nasdaq again crosses 26399 and stays above it for a month. Lets see.
4HR NQ – Attempting a New Direction4HR NQ – Attempting a New Direction (For Educational Purposes Only)
This analysis is shared strictly for educational purposes and is not financial advice. It is intended to illustrate chart-reading techniques, structure mapping, and scenario planning.
Bullish Scenario – Potential Uptrend Zone
The chart outlines a clearly defined uptrend continuation area:
A green expansion zone highlights the upside target region toward 25,891.50.
A –1% risk bubble shows the approximate drawdown tolerance for a long bias.
A break and sustained move above 25,591.50 (white dotted line) would strengthen bullish momentum.
The yellow dashed line above represents a major resistance area that the market must reclaim to shift direction convincingly.
Bearish Scenario – Potential Downtrend Zone
The lower side of the chart maps the downside continuation possibility:
A red zone defines the bearish target area toward 24,704.75.
A –1% risk bubble marks the downside tolerance for a bearish setup.
Losing the central grey zone opens the path toward the deeper support band, signaling continuation of downward pressure.
Pattern & Symmetry Structure (Educational Highlight)
On the left side, the chart features a harmonic/symmetry-based analytical framework used for pattern recognition:
A boxed structure spans 22 bars, with two vertical 8-bar segments forming time symmetry.
Two 2.14% price swings mark the upper and lower rotational boundaries.
Curved arcs and diagonals are used to visualize price rotation, volatility compression, and potential reversal points.
This section is included to demonstrate how symmetry and measured movements can support probabilistic forecasting in technical analysis.
Neutral Decision Zone (Market Pivot Area)
The central grey band represents the equilibrium zone, where buyers and sellers are in temporary balance.
Price is currently interacting with this zone, making it the key decision point.
Orange blocks above and below may indicate smaller supply/demand pockets or micro-imbalances.
A directional break from this zone typically sets the next short-term trend.
Summary Market at a Critical Turning Point
Above the grey zone → momentum favors the green uptrend zone.
Below the grey zone → momentum favors the red downtrend zone.
NQ Daily Outlook | November 19, 20251H timeframe — using the 50 EMA (black) for trend + 5/10 EMAs (white) for momentum/BOS.
Quick read: We’re still under the 50 EMA, and the whites are curled down. Structure is still making lower-highs and lower-lows, so momentum stays bearish for now.
Bearish idea (favored)
If we stay under the 5/10 EMAs and reject the 50 again, I’m looking for a BOS down and continuation into the lows.
Bullish idea
If we reclaim the whites, break a lower-high, and hold above the 50 EMA, then I’ll flip long and look for a clean BOS up.
Bias: Bearish until price breaks structure to the upside and holds above the 50 EMA.
Bullish Continuation After Strong Rebound From FVG DemandCME_MINI:NQ1! has successfully rebounded from the Fair Value Gap (FVG) demand zone at 25,150–25,220, confirming this area as a strong short-term base for buyers. The earlier sweep of multiple SSS (sell-side liquidity) levels around 24,850–24,900 seems to have cleared out weak hands, allowing the market to rebuild a bullish structure.
With the FVG now acting as a defended demand zone, bullish momentum is beginning to form. The recent rejection from the lows and the shift back above short-term structure indicate that buyers are reclaiming control.
As long as NQ holds above the FVG demand, price is well-positioned to extend higher toward:
25,450 (first reaction point)
25,600 (continuation target)
25,750–25,820 (major supply zone + previous rejection area)
A higher low above the FVG would further strengthen the bullish outlook and signal continuation toward the upper supply. Current flow favors a sustained push upward as long as demand continues to hold.
NQ Targets (09-29-25)Moving into October, 7 week range forecast. Basically, 23,050 is 50% retracement of YTD lift. Looking for a retest of that, no hold and keep going to the YTD Open or circle below (yellow arrow path). White arrow path has two targets, these are potential drop/rejection zones (to yellow arrow path). KL 24,950 is ML of TZ, we have played in lower half and may see some play in upper half. Sideways to lower during this 7 week period is the idea.
AI Valuation TechnicallyThese are the three largest market-cap listed companies on the Nasdaq.
If we are concerned about an AI bubble, I’m going to show you how I perform a quick glance at some top companies and their index to determine the likelihood of an upcoming short-, mid-, or long-term correction.
In 2017, Microsoft’s P/E reached its highest at 45 — and it continued to rise after that.
In 2023, Nvidia’s P/E reached its highest at 147 — and it continued to rise after that.
In 2024, Apple’s P/E reached its highest at 40 — and it continued to rise after that.
Video version:
Micro E-mini Nasdaq-100 Index
Ticker: MNQ
Minimum fluctuation:
0.25 index points = $0.50
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/
NQ Long Setup at 24,765: Strong Buyer ZoneNQ created a strong support at 24,765 after a sharp rejection of lower prices. A heavy volume cluster formed right where buyers stepped in, and a wide fair value gap confirms strong buying aggression. The beginning of this FVG marks the key reaction level. Waiting for a pullback into 24,765 offers a clean long setup with solid confluence.
Monitoring AI Valuation - Precision on Upcoming CorrectionThese are the three largest market-cap listed companies on the Nasdaq.
If we are concerned about an AI bubble, I’m going to show you how I perform a quick glance at some top companies and their index to determine the likelihood of an upcoming short-, mid-, or long-term correction.
In 2017, Microsoft’s P/E reached its highest at 45 — and it continued to rise after that.
In 2023, Nvidia’s P/E reached its highest at 147 — and it continued to rise after that.
In 2024, Apple’s P/E reached its highest at 40 — and it continued to rise after that.
Micro E-mini Nasdaq-100 Index
Ticker: MNQ
Minimum fluctuation:
0.25 index points = $0.50
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
NDX - DONT HURT ME NO MORE!Good Morning,
Hope all is well. NDX !!! Don't hurt me no more. Nope! We saw this coming from quite a distance away. I first observed a pull-back coming into effect on a shorter time frame and have since charted it on longer time frames.
Lets get down to basics. The markets had a phenomenal run this year, there can only be so much confidence in something before people start to get weary. That is exactly what we have here. Currently are we finished the pull-back? No - Are we going to dive into a reversal?, unlikely. There is still a very long way to go until we hit that point.
My TFSA has been limited at this point, I am not buying much and am holding a 75% cash reserve. My other two accounts are swing and day trade accounts so I do not bother and instead play the positions when opportunity arises.
Trade Safely!
Enjoy!
NQ Daily Outlook | November 20, 20251H timeframe — 50 EMA (black) for trend + 5/10 EMAs (white) for momentum/BOS.
Quick read: Price broke above the 5/10 EMAs and cleared the 50 EMA with a strong impulse. All EMAs are now below price, so we’re in a bullish state for the first time in a while.
Bullish idea (favored)
Now that we’re above all EMAs, I’m looking for:
A small pullback into the whites
A bullish BOS
Then continuation higher
As long as we stay above the 50 EMA, momentum stays bullish.
Bearish idea
Only shifts bearish again if:
We drop back under the 5/10 EMAs
Lose the 50 EMA
Print a BOS down
Until that happens, shorts are lower probability.
Bias: Bullish — EMAs reclaimed + impulse confirms momentum. I’m looking for continuation up unless we lose the whites and fall back under the 50 EMA.
#202546 - priceactiontds - weekly update – nasdaq e-miniGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Again, not much difference to dax. Also in a triangle and for now I highly doubt we will see a big range expansion out of 24600 - 25500. We had two weeks where the bears showed strength but what do they have to show for? We closed above 25000 in both weeks. That’s still as bullish as it gets. Only a bearish daily close below 24600 could change my outlook.
current market cycle: trading range 24000 - 26500 / 4h chart it’s a triangle 24700 - 25500
key levels for next week: 24500 - 25500
bull case: Bulls bought 24700 heavily again and closed the week above 25000. Bears can have no confidence in shorts when we rally for 667 points after a 1095 point drop. Problem for the bulls is that they also have to be very careful with buying high again since the downside can be huge. Which will likely mean that we won’t see much interest in buying above 25400ish. Even longing 25000 when we can drop down to 24600 or lower, is a tough trade.
Invalidation is below 24709.
bear case: Every dip is heavily bought. Has not changed. Can only become more bearish with a daily close below 24000 and that’s far. 25830 is likely the stop, most bears have to have for most shorts next week. That’s a big range and it any short below 25300 from being decent imo. We are making lower highs and lower lows but the lower lows just barely. Until that changes, we will most likely continue sideways in the given range.
Invalidation is above 25830.
short term: Neutral around 25000. Short closer to 25700 and longs closer to 25600.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-02: Market went further in the wrong direction so my targets become increasingly unrealistic. Right now the 50% retracement is 21750 and would mean a 18% drop. That’s a bit too much to ask for as of now. 24150 is the breakout-retest of the prior ath from 2024-12 and a more realistic target.
Derivatives & Options Trading Trends1. Rising Retail Participation and Democratization of Derivatives
One of the most significant trends is the rapid increase in retail participation, especially in markets like India, the U.S., and parts of Asia. Platforms such as Robinhood, Zerodha, Upstox, and Interactive Brokers have made derivatives trading more accessible by offering low-cost or zero-brokerage models, simplified interfaces, and educational tools.
In India, index options volumes on NSE have surged to record highs, driven by weekly and even daily options expiries. Retail traders now actively participate in directional and non-directional strategies including spreads, straddles, strangles, and intraday scalping. Because of lower margin requirements and high leverage, derivatives have become an attractive entry point for younger traders.
This democratization comes with both opportunities and risks. While broader participation enhances market depth and liquidity, it also increases systemic concerns around over-leverage, herd behaviour, and inadequate understanding of derivatives mechanics.
2. Explosive Growth of Weekly and Short-Dated Options
Short-tenor options—weekly, daily, and even zero-day options (0DTE)—have become a global phenomenon. The U.S. S&P 500 Index (SPX) now sees major volumes in 0DTE options, favoured by traders for intraday speculation, gamma exposure, and event-driven strategies.
Similarly, in India, weekly Bank Nifty and Nifty expiries have turned into some of the most traded options worldwide. Traders prefer these contracts for:
Lower premiums
Quick payoff realization
High volatility leading to strong intraday movements
Flexibility to align with macro events (Fed decisions, CPI data, RBI policy, earnings, etc.)
Short-dated options have reshaped intraday volatility patterns, with large swings near expiry due to gamma effects and dealer hedging flows.
3. The Era of Algorithmic and Quantitative Trading in Derivatives
Quantitative models and algorithmic trading systems now dominate global derivatives markets. Hedge funds, proprietary desks, and even retail quants increasingly use:
Market-neutral strategies
Volatility arbitrage
High-frequency scalping
Options-based hedging
Gamma and vega-weighted portfolios
Machine-learning-driven directional trades
In India, algo penetration in derivatives has increased dramatically after regulatory approvals for API-based trading. Low-latency systems allow quants to execute thousands of trades per second, exploiting micro-imbalances, liquidity pockets, and implied-volatility mispricings.
Algo trading is particularly influential in options markets, where pricing inefficiencies emerge frequently due to time decay and volatility shifts.
4. Surge in Volatility Trading and Volatility Derivatives
A major global trend is the rise of volatility as an asset class. Traders now actively trade volatility, not just price direction, through:
VIX futures and options
Implied volatility strategies (IV crush, IV expansion)
Calendar spreads
Vega-neutral portfolios
Volatility arbitrage between indices and individual stocks
During major macro events—geopolitical shocks, central bank decisions, inflation releases—volatility spikes create large opportunities for professional traders.
The global appetite for volatility exposure reflects increasing macro uncertainty in markets shaped by inflation cycles, geopolitical risks, and policy unpredictability.
5. Growing Popularity of Exotic Options and Structured Derivatives
Beyond standard call and put options, demand is rising for exotic derivatives, especially among institutions. These include:
Barrier options
Asian options
Binary options
Lookback options
Range accrual derivatives
Digital payoff structures
Structured product desks in banks use these derivatives to offer tailored risk-return solutions to corporate treasuries, high-net-worth individuals, and offshore investors.
In equity derivatives, structured notes like autocallables are gaining traction globally, especially in European and East Asian markets.
6. Commodities and Currency Derivatives: A Renewed Focus
Commodity and currency derivatives have seen renewed interest due to global supply chain disruptions, geopolitical instability, and inflation pressures.
Key Drivers:
Oil price volatility due to Middle East conflicts
Agricultural supply shocks
Currency fluctuations driven by monetary policy divergence
Rising importance of hedging for import- and export-dependent industries
In India, the launch of new currency derivatives and increased retail interest in crude oil and natural gas options have broadened the market.
7. Interest Rate Derivatives and the Post-Rate-Hike World
As central banks oscillate between tightening and easing cycles, interest rate derivatives (IRDs) such as swaps, futures, and swaptions have gained remarkable importance.
Key themes include:
Hedging long-term debt exposure
Speculation on rate paths
Positioning around government bond yield movements
Managing duration risk for institutional investors
The pricing of interest rate options is now heavily influenced by inflation expectations, forward guidance, and global economic conditions.
8. Regulation, Risk Control & Margining Reforms
Global regulators have tightened rules around derivative trading to ensure transparency and reduce systemic risk. Major reforms include:
Mandatory margining for futures and options
Upfront collection of SPAN + Exposure margin
Position limits for retail participants
Greater disclosures for brokers and exchanges
Risk-based levies on high-frequency trading
Banning of certain high-risk derivatives for retail in some regions
In India, peak margin rules and tightened risk controls have significantly changed intraday derivatives strategies, reducing excessive leverage.
9. Rise of Data-Driven Decision Making
Modern derivatives traders rely heavily on:
Real-time order book analytics
Option Greeks monitoring systems
Volatility surface modelling
Big-data sentiment indicators
AI-driven predictive models
Access to sophisticated analytics platforms—Sensibull, Opstra, TradingView, Bloomberg, Reuters, and broker-provided tools—helps even retail traders adopt institution-grade analysis.
10. Shift Toward Multi-Asset Derivative Strategies
Markets are becoming increasingly interconnected. Traders now prefer multi-asset strategies that combine:
Equity + Currency
Equity + Commodity
Interest Rate + Currency
Options + Futures
Cross-country derivatives
These hybrid strategies help hedge correlated risks and exploit arbitrage opportunities across markets.
Conclusion
Derivatives and options trading are undergoing a profound transformation driven by retail participation, technological advancement, algorithmic dominance, volatility-focused strategies, and regulatory shifts. Markets are faster, more interconnected, and more complex than ever before. Whether used for hedging, speculation, arbitrage, or portfolio diversification, derivatives remain a cornerstone of modern financial markets.
As the global environment becomes more uncertain, derivatives will continue to play a crucial role in risk management and trading innovation—shaping the next era of financial markets.






















