Daily on gc...Large number of order being placed, price also didn't manage break above.. there are high chance for the price went into that support daily + ob+cisd zone before continue it's path on 2026.
Market insights
GOLD: Missiles Flying? Protests In Iran? Look For Buys!In this Weekly Market Forecast, we will analyze Gold (XAUUSD) for the week of Jan. 12 - 16th.
Gold is seeing inflows lately due to tensions in the market. The US and Venezuela, missiles to Syria, and protests in Iran... have caused investors to look toward this safe haven.
I expect a gap open for the second week in a row, and further gains this week.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
The Gold–Platinum Ratio and the Fragility of Late-Cycle GainsGold and platinum delivered exceptional gains in 2025, in line with the broader rally in precious metals.
Gold posted its largest annual increase since 1975, rising 64% in 2025, supported by its safe-haven appeal.
Platinum recorded its strongest yearly gain since 1985, surging 125%, driven by industrial demand optimism and tight supply conditions.
The latest trigger was the Federal Reserve’s 25 bps rate cut on 10/Dec, after which platinum surged by 41% while gold grew by 6%.
However, this surge came on top of an already strong rally. As a result, positioning now looks crowded. From a technical perspective, the precious metals complex appears increasingly fragile.
Gold, silver, platinum, and palladium are all showing extremely overbought signals, with RSI levels typical of late-cycle rallies.
In the past, similar setups led to brief peaks, not sustained rallies. Positioning is now stretched, and sentiment is one-sided. The key question is no longer what drove the rally, but whether prices can hold in 2026.
This paper explores that question by examining historical patterns, current macroeconomic drivers, and potential risks ahead.
Historical Parallels: When Momentum Marks the Peak
The current rally is large, but it is not unique. During Platinum’s 2008 peak, prices broke past resistance, momentum surged, and the rally ended abruptly.
Platinum is not alone. Other precious metals are showing similar warning signs.
During silver’s 2011 peak, prices rose about 173%. Weekly RSI reached around 88, like recent levels. In past cycles, readings like these usually signalled fatigue, not more upside.
These peaks followed a familiar pattern. Prices rose very quickly late in the cycle. This was often followed by sharp reversals. Rallies became stretched, sellers disappeared, and speculation built up in a short time.
The point is not to time the top. History shows that extreme momentum usually leads to weak future returns, with downside risks larger than potential gains.
Why History Alone Is Not Enough
Historical comparisons are useful, but they are not enough on their own. Each cycle plays out under different macro conditions, and late-stage rallies are often driven by short covering and excess liquidity, pushing prices beyond fundamentals.
Platinum’s 2008 rally illustrates this clearly. Speculation drove weekly RSI above 91, showing how difficult it is to fade strong momentum even as risk-reward deteriorates.
As a result, the current cycle must be judged using both technical signals and macro drivers.
What Drove the Rally and What Changes in 2026
The precious metals’ strong performance in 2025 has been driven by several factors, led by the “debasement trade”. Concerns around currency dilution, low real rates, and long-term purchasing power have pushed investors toward hard assets, alongside equities and crypto.
However, price gains have outpaced actual monetary deterioration. This suggests the rally is expectation-driven, leaving the metals vulnerable if sentiment turns.
ETF and ETP flows reinforce this risk. While inflows have been solid, positions have proven fragile, with silver and platinum seeing rapid outflows during pullbacks, indicating limited long-term conviction.
Unlike gold, platinum lacks consistent central bank support, offering no structural price floor. At the same time, elevated prices risk weakening industrial demand, which could accelerate declines once speculative interest fades.
Macro Fault Lines and 2026 Scenarios
Several macro risks remain unresolved: U.S. monetary policy, Japan’s weakening yen, and stretched valuations in equities and private credit.
The Fed has already cut rates by 75 bps, with more priced in. Inflation is the key risk. Any rebound would quickly limit further easing.
Japan faces growing currency pressure. Despite rate hikes, the yen continues to weaken as fiscal concerns and long-end JGB yields rise. Ongoing debasement supports hard assets, while policy intervention remains the main wildcard.
Finally, AI-driven valuation froth in equities and private credit represents a latent tail risk.
Together, these forces point to three possible paths into 2026:
Blow-off extension: Momentum continues briefly before a sharp reversal.
Risk realisation: Macro stress supports hard assets, but upside is limited as expectations are already priced in. Returns are likely flat to modest.
Risk repricing: If macro risks fade, elevated prices unwind into a broader downturn.
Long-only positioning now looks stretched. Relative value trades offer a cleaner alternative. The gold–platinum ratio has returned to long-term support.
In a late-cycle phase, spreads are likely to deliver better risk-adjusted returns than outright positions.
HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE BACKTEST
Going into 2026, the precious metals complex is unlikely to deliver another sharp surge. Late-cycle momentum is fading, and prices are more likely to trend lower or move sideways rather than sustain a strong uptrend.
As outlined earlier, trading the gold–platinum ratio offers a cleaner way to express views amid rising macro uncertainty.
A similar pattern played out between mid-November 2020 and mid-February 2021, when the ratio fell sharply as platinum outperformed due to reflation and optimism in industrial demand.
The ratio later rebounded as growth expectations cooled and investors rotated back toward defensive assets.
If precious metal prices decline again, gold is likely to fall more slowly than platinum, setting the stage for a reversal higher in the gold–platinum ratio.
Using CME contract sizes of 100 troy ounces for gold futures and 50 troy ounces for platinum futures, a trader entered the positions on 19 Feb 2021 and exited on 15 Sep 2021.
The trade generated a gross mark-to-market profit of USD 205,865.
Long CME Gold futures (GC)
Entry = USD 1,772.7/oz
Notional per contract = 1,772.7 x 100 = USD 177,270
Exit = USD 1,791.4/oz
Short CME Platinum futures (PL)
Entry = USD 1,294.1/barrel
Notional per contract = 1,294.1 x 50 = USD 64,705
Exit = USD 933.4/barrel
To closely match the notional value of each leg, the trade can be structured by going long 4 gold futures and short 11 platinum futures. This results in nearly equal exposure on both sides:
Gold futures = USD 709,080
Platinum futures = USD 711,755
Gold futures PnL: 4 x (100 x (1,791.4 – 1,772.7)) = USD 7,480
Platinum futures PnL: 11 x (50 x (1,294.1 – 933.4)) = USD 198,385
Spread PnL: (7,480 + 198,385) = USD 205,865
The gold–platinum ratio benefits when gold outperforms platinum, either by rising faster or falling more slowly. A long ratio position loses money when platinum outperforms, through stronger gains or smaller declines.
In short, the trade captures relative performance, not absolute price direction, providing a risk-managed framework to navigate a late-cycle rally.
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Gold at Decision Point — Consolidation or Weekly Reversal?Price made a high on Tuesday and spent Wednesday consolidating rather than rejecting. HTF structure remains bullish, but momentum has slowed and price is now compressing around value.
My weekly rule is that Tuesday’s high or low often sets direction — however, consolidation alone is not confirmation. For a higher-timeframe short bias, I want to see a clean break and close below yesterday’s low at 4433, followed by acceptance below that level.
Until then, any shorts are tactical and counter-trend, not conviction trades.
If 4433 fails and cannot be reclaimed, I’ll look for continuation lower.
If price holds value and re-accepts higher, this may resolve as continuation up.
Waiting for the market to show its hand. No anticipation — only confirmation.
Gold GC For Week 03/2026 (New money is pushing the price higher)Gold GC For Week 03/2026
We have seen a new rush of liquidity coming in from Japan's policy changes and the US Trump administration's policies.
This is leading up to the possible snap election in Japan in February and the US midterm elections.
This has kept gold and other risk assets higher, with potential for further gains.
Let's ride..
Sonic
Bullish RunGold has swept Asia’s Low and came back in the range. It’s sitting right above Monday’s High as support. I can see price targeting Asia High now!
Multi Top - Multi Bottom. Go Next Gorilla Shift4400 to brace a bag (supply area). 4525 extension - to feed Gorilla that.
MCX Gold Tests Record 142500, Bulls Eyeing 144000?Gold Futures on MCX have recorded new All Time High at 142500 on Monday night as Comex spot Gold recorded $4630
Next upside potential sits at 1.414% Fibonacci extension 243000 followed by 1.618% Fibonacci extension 244300
There is a possibility of momentum paus at heights causing profit booking leading to short term pullback and retracement to support zone initially 140000
If selling extends below 140000, prices may correct further to 139000-138000
Gold Trapped Between HTF Liquidity — Waiting for the Real TUESMonday did exactly what Mondays do — it created liquidity without resolution.
Price ran above the Yearly & Monthly highs, failed to hold, and left behind a clear H4 Fair Value Gap. That tells me this wasn’t a breakout… it was a stop run + displacement.
Now rolling into Tuesday, I’m not chasing.
I’m waiting for price to return into H4 value and test:
Previous Weekly High – 4526.9
Previous Daily Low – 4521
That zone is where real business happens.
If we get a clean sweep into that area, DOM excess + absorption should show us whether this move is going to rotate lower first before continuing bullish.
No entries outside of the killzone.
No emotional trades.
Let the market come to me.
📍 Patience is the edge.
Gold (MGC) — HTF Bullish, Waiting on Acceptance for ContinuationHTF structure remains bullish with price printing higher highs and higher lows.
Yesterday produced a slow, rotational push higher, suggesting digestion rather than clean expansion.
Today’s session opened by testing yesterday’s high, followed by an immediate pullback into the 50% equilibrium of yesterday’s range. This area is now acting as a key decision zone.
For continuation, I want to see:
Displacement away from the 50% level
Reclaim and acceptance above yesterday’s high (not just a tag)
Clean follow-through without immediate rotation back into prior range
If price fails to reclaim and starts accepting below equilibrium, I’ll remain patient and wait for deeper value before considering continuation setups.
Bias stays bullish — execution depends on confirmation, not assumption.
Plan > Patience > Execution
GC Weekly planHere is gold weekly plan.
What i think will happen, is that first we will take the weekly high first, then we might correct to the trendline breakout since there is a massive buyers in this area after sellers tried to break down and sell gold heavily, but bulls defended, which i think their defence will last.
The plan is to monitor price after the weekly high is taken to take another buying position. I anticipate that on Monday price will first tap into the initial long zone. Once the weekly high is swept, we will wait for a pullback and if price corrects lower, we will prepare for a second long opportunity.
Good luck everyone !
Gold Trapped in Re-Accumulation Above Yearly HighGold exploded into the weekly open and tagged the Previous Yearly High and Monthly High, but instead of rejecting, price has been consolidating above that level for two full sessions now.
That’s not weakness — that’s re-accumulation.
We are currently sitting in a tight range between the Previous Daily Low (~4576) and the highs around 4630, with overlapping candles, compressed volume, and no real displacement. This is classic value building after a breakout, not a clean reversal.
There is a valid H4 FVG below around 4545–4525, but imbalances don’t get filled until the market finishes its business on the current side of the auction. Right now, liquidity is being built above the Yearly High.
Until we see:
• A break and acceptance below 4576 → shorts toward the H4 FVG
or
• A break and hold above 4630 → continuation to new highs
everything in between is chop.
I’m staying patient inside the killzones and waiting for escape velocity, not trying to predict direction inside a compression coil. The real move always comes after the range.
Gold Context: Structural Resilience & The Inflation GauntletRelated Tickers: COMEX_MINI:MGCG2026, COMEX:GC1!, CAPITALCOM:DXY
Analysis
1. Market Context (Weekly Recap & Setup)
The second week of 2026 closed with a powerful display of Responsive Buying . After a healthy mid-week pullback, Gold (MGC) caught a bid and finished the week strong near 4518 .
• Structure: The Friday close created a solid base above previous value. We have successfully reclaimed the 4500 psychological level .
• The Nuance: Trading above 4500 shifts the auction to Initiative . The ATH is now the primary magnet.
2. Inventory & Nuance (Support Clusters)
• The 4500 Pivot: Line in the sand. Trade above confirms dip buyers are in control.
• Friday POC (4480): If 4500 fails, we test the Friday POC at 4480 . This is the "fairest price" from the Friday auction.
• GEX Profile: Sustained trade above 4500 could trigger a Gamma Squeeze toward 4550 .
3. Fundamental Catalyst (The Inflation Gauntlet)
The week of Jan 12–16 is packed with high-impact data.
• Tuesday, Jan 13: US CPI (20:30 WIB). Expect Headline 2.7%. High MoM = USD Tsunami.
• Wednesday, Jan 14: US PPI & Retail Sales . Weak sales = Gold rocket.
• Fed Speak: Multiple officials (Bostic, Kashkari, Williams) speaking. Clues for the Jan 28 meeting are critical.
Plan & Execution
• Bias: Bullish Initiative above 4500.
• Scenario A (ATH Run): Acceptance above 4500 targets 4550 and ATH.
• Scenario B (Rotation): Failure at 4500 targets 4480 . Look for Responsive Buying there.
• Invalidation: Sustained trade below 4420 kills the bull case for now.
Talk to you for the next update.
MGC Context: NY Open Absorption & The 4,600 Line in the SandRelated Tickers: COMEX_MINI:MGCG2026, COMEX:GC1!, CAPITALCOM:DXY
Analysis
1. Market Context (Vertical Initiative vs. Extreme Absorption)
The auction is a textbook case of Vertical Initiative colliding with massive mechanical Absorption .
• The Structure: Gold hit a historic ATH of 4,612.7 today. Price is currently hugging 4,600 . This initiative is fueled by the Fed Independence Crisis after the DOJ served subpoenas to Chair Powell.
• The Behavior: Massive volume at highs indicates a "Transfer of Ownership" from BCOM index sellers to aggressive safe-haven buyers.
2. Inventory & Nuance (BCOM vs. The Fed Bid)
• Mechanical Flow: We are in the peak of BCOM rebalancing (Jan 9–15), which mechanically unloads ~$7 billion (2.4m oz) of gold.
• Absorption Signature: Holding 4,600 against this supply dump is a signal of extreme strength. A weak market would have flushed 2.5–3.0% by now.
• Inventory: Ultra-Long but absorbed. OTF buyers are providing liquidity for every ounce the index robots sell.
3. Fundamental Catalyst (The 24-Hour Outlook)
• Today (Monday): Watching 4,580–4,600 . Acceptance above 4,600 post-mid-day signals the safe-haven bid has exhausted the BCOM sellers.
• Tuesday (Jan 13): US CPI Data . A hot print could break the absorption and launch MGC toward 4,700 .
Plan & Execution
• Bias: Ultra-Bullish Initiative .
• The Play: Watch for a "Look Below and Fail" at 4,580 . If 4,600 holds into the close, target is 4,660 .
• Invalidation: A close below 4,518 implies BCOM selling has finally overwhelmed the buyers.
Talk to you for the next update.
Gold Trade / Liquidity Entree 1/6/26full break down of a trade i took today on Gold, 1h Swing high (liquidity zone $$) and also a 1h bearish fvg right above it.
this model can be used in the opposite direction for longs also, you need to identify your area of interest and wait for fvg's to get invalidaded by seeing candles closing all the way thru the gap.
thank you for watching.
Gold @ Yearly Highs — Pullback, Not Panic. Patience @ HTF LevelsNew year, fresh perspective. After a 2-month mental reset, I’m back watching Gold from a higher-timeframe lens.
Price has expanded into yearly highs and is now pulling back into prior weekly value — a normal rebalancing phase, not immediate weakness. Multiple Weekly FVGs below have already served as fuel for the move up, and current price action looks more like liquidity clearing and position adjustment than trend reversal.
With the Dollar under pressure and macro volatility elevated, I’m prioritizing location over prediction. I’m not chasing breakouts here — I’m waiting for sell-side runs into HTF zones, acceptance, and clean displacement before considering longs.
This is a patience environment. Best trades will come from pullbacks and reactions, not impulse.
Let price show its hand.
Bearish ScalpPrice respected London High and came back into its range. Next target would be London Low, Good Risk reward.
GOLD (XAUUSD): Short Term Bearish! Watch The -FVG!In this Weekly Market Forecast, we will analyze Gold (XAUUSD) for the week of Jan.5-9th.
Gold took a bearish turn last week, closing below the previous weekly candle. This is ordinarily a bearish indication. But with the US actions against Venezuela, we may see Gold spike up with
the tensions.
If the market moves higher, there is a -FVG just above it to offer resistance. If the market doesn't respect the -FVG, we know to look for long setups upon the inversion of that FVG.
If the market respects the -FVG, look for sells on the LTFs.
Simple.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Gold Context: Defending the Floor & The 0DTE Battle**Related Tickers:** `COMEX_MINI:MGCG2026`, `COMEX:GC1!`, `CAPITALCOM:DXY`
### Analysis
**1. Market Context (Liquidation Break)**
The auction has shifted from "Balance" to **Imbalance** (Short-term Bearish).
* **The Move:** The failure to hold the POC (4480) triggered a liquidation of weak longs. We have now rotated down to the bottom of the bracket.
* **Current Location:** We are trading **below** Yesterday’s Value Area Low (VAL ~4473). In strict auction terms, price is being "accepted" lower. However, we have slammed directly into a major structural "Floor" at the Put Support.
**2. Inventory & Nuance (The Line in the Sand)**
* **The Defense:** The **4455-4459** zone is effectively the "Put Wall." Market Makers who sold puts here are defending this level to avoid being forced to short futures.
* **Sticky Price:** We are seeing a cluster of Gamma Exposure (GEX 2 & GEX 8) here. This creates a "sticky" environment where price often stalls or bounces as dealers adjust inventory.
* **Inventory:** Shorts are likely **stretched**. The rapid move from 4488 down to 4459 likely has late shorts chasing. If 4455 holds, these late shorts could be squeezed.
**3. The Structural Risk (The Air Pocket)**
* **The Cliff:** If **4450** gives way, the Dealer Put Support evaporates.
* **The Drop:** Below 4450, the volume profile is thin. The next major high-volume node/GEX structure is the **4400-4410** area.
### Plan & Execution
* **Bias:** Defensive. We are looking for a **Responsive Buy** (The Save) against 4455 or an **Initiative Sell** (The Flush) below 4450.
* **Scenario A (The Save):** We must reclaim **4473** (Yesterday's VAL) to confirm the breakdown was a trap. Target return to POC (4480).
* **Scenario B (The Flush):** A sustained break below **4450** targets **4410**.
Talk to you for the next update.
Dollar Dropping Will Gold Push upGold Recently touched the daily fvg and pushed up, retraced the move up and left Liquidity at the previous day high. The Dollar is weaking will gold fill orders at 4332 and Target the 4400 range? Thats what Im looking for
Year Ahead 26' GOLDMy interest is around the higher price hesitation area created by high wick candlestick earlier (now near support). This indicates emotional trading and emotional decision making.
What is your anticipation here on GOLD, will we have another strong bullish year, or should we start hedging against any bullish positions in play?
