GC UpdateI probably should have gone long when it hit the bottom of the pennant. Waiting for it to come back down.
Trade ideas
Pump to double top then dump Inverse head and shoulder on the 1-2 hr time frame plays out to 4279-4282 range. This will put gold in a slightly lower double top be morning. Fomo will load up at these levels then we dump. There is a open gap that needs to fill between 4140-4160. Dont get trapped. Silver is forming a head and shoulder on the 3-4 hour time frame simultaneously that will top around 58.37 just as it reenters the upward channel, then start the long dump down $55.35. Lot ti be made up and back down..
London setup London will create the low of the day & NY session will be a continuation of London session today with greater portion of displacement.
Gold Value Rotation & Lack of ConvictionFOREXCOM:XAUUSD COMEX_MINI:MGCG2026 COMEX:GC1!
Traders. Context update for the remainder of the week.
Market Context (The Rotation):
The auction has rotated back into yesterday's Value Area and POC (Point of Control).
• The Driver: This move was primarily driven by mechanical short covering rather than initiative buying.
• The Problem: There is no evidence of "new money" (OTF) entering the market to sustain a directional trend. The auction is simply balancing.
Structure & Inventory:
• Balancing: Price is chopping between the GEX levels (Gamma levels), finding acceptance around the 4244 POC.
• Momentum: Stalled. The market is waiting for a catalyst from the Dollar (DXY), which is currently consolidating at lows.
• Behavior: Every breakout attempt is failing to find follow-through, confirming a mean-reversion environment.
Plan & Execution:
Given the lack of conviction, I am not looking for trend trades this week.
• Stance: Range Bound / Two-Way Trade.
• Tactics: Fade the edges of the balance. Expect price to remain tethered to the POC until new information enters the market.
Talk to you for the next update.
Balancing Range & The 4190 PivotCOMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGCG2026 FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
Traders. Update on the current auction structure.
Market Context (No New Money): We have yet to see any "New Money" or Initiative Buying enter the market. Yesterday developed as another Balance Day, capped by some late-session liquidation.
The Reality: The auction remains range-bound between 4,290 (High) and 4,190 (Low). Without a fresh catalyst, price is simply rotating within this established bracket.
Structure & Key Levels:
Bullish Scenario: If Gold can hold acceptance above Yesterday's Low, the rotation favors a re-test of the upper distribution around 4,260 – 4,270 later this week.
Bearish Scenario: The line in the sand is 4,190. A breakdown and acceptance below this level changes the context significantly, likely dragging the auction down to repair the November Balance Area (~4,100).
Plan:
Stance: Neutral / Range Trading.
Execution: Fading the extremes of the 4290-4190 range until we see a breakout with volume confirmation.
Talk to you for the next update.
Symmetrical Triangle🟦 Symmetrical Triangle Behavior
It represents a volatility contraction and indecision.
It usually follows a strong prior move — and in this case, the run-up before November 27–28.
Because the run-up was bullish, statistically the probability leans slightly toward a bullish breakout, but breakouts must be confirmed, not predicted.🚨 What Matters Most
🧾 Levels to Watch (approximate)
These need validating as price evolves, but based on your drawing:
Breakout Zone (Bullish): ~4,260–4,270
Breakdown Zone (Bearish): ~4,190–4,200
📉 If It Breaks Down
Targets could be measured using the height of the triangle:
Rough move target: 40–60 points from breakout/breakdown.
Gold (GC1!) Forecast: The Squeeze & Release Path via DSRTL MatriCategory: Trend Analysis / Chart Patterns
Symbol: GC1! (Gold Futures)
In this analysis, we use the DSRTL-ML (Dynamic Support & Resistance) engine to map the current structural context for Gold. The indicator is tagging the state as “TESTING RES – Bias: Neutral”, highlighting a consolidation phase right underneath a major resistance band. Structurally, this is a spot where static friction meets dynamic momentum.
1. The Current Structure: Compression Phase
The Matrix currently sits at S2 | D3 (Testing Resistance).
- The Ceiling (Static R): Price is capped by a high-volume resistance node (orange zone: ~4.24K–4.31K), acting as a lid on price action.
- The Floor (Dynamic S): At the same time, the rising DSRTL trend line (dynamic support) is pushing the lows higher inside the channel.
Taken together, this can be viewed as an early ascending-triangle–style squeeze: price is consolidating between a flat static lid and a rising dynamic floor, while DSRTL keeps the official bias neutral and labels the state as a resistance test.
2. Path of Least Resistance
The dashboard shows a positive Net Delta of +8.36K, suggesting that buyers have been active right below the resistance band.
- Projected Path: In the absence of a clear break, price can continue to oscillate within this narrowing pocket between static resistance and the rising channel.
- Breakout Vector: The combination of constructive volume flow and an upward-sloping dynamic channel creates a supportive backdrop if an upside break occurs, even though DSRTL itself still prints a Neutral bias here.
3. Scenario & Structural Objectives
- Trigger: A confirmed close above the top of the Static R band (~4.31K) would move the Matrix out of its S2 “testing” state toward an S1-type breakout environment.
- Next Structural Area: Above that level, the next area of interest becomes the upper rail of the DSRTL dynamic channel (pink line), where the system could start migrating toward its higher “extension” states.
Invalidation:
If price breaks and closes below the rising pink dynamic support, the bullish squeeze thesis is invalidated. In that case, the Matrix would likely rotate toward Neutral/Bearish or Bearish-Pullback configurations, depending on how price interacts with the underlying static support band.
Disclaimer: This forecast is based on structural scenarios derived from the DSRTL-ML engine and is provided strictly for educational and illustrative purposes.
GOLD - H12Since October 27 Gold is recovering into an upward move. The chart is still respecting the Major Blue ascending channel. But recently a new Purple one evolved inside the Blue channel.
The Strong support zone was retested twice pushing the chart into a favorable bullish momentum. The 2nd Support zone is actually being confirmed as solid, right now.
If it holds, we will have a strong upward move inside the purple channel, or a less powerful one potentially respecting the middle blue line. Both Scenarios will be eventually on the way to breach the red zone & making a new Top.
If the actual support zone is weak, Gold will breach down the purple channel, back to the Blue one, closing in again on the Strong Support zone.
I still favor an Upward move even if it might go a bit sideways 1st.
Trade Safe.
Gold | Zone-Based High-RR Long Setup | Bullish BiasGold | Zone-Based High-RR Long Setup | Bullish Bias
I currently carry a bullish bias on Gold. Price is approaching a pre-defined demand zone marked on the chart — this is a reaction area, not a prediction. I only engage after confirmation from within the zone. If the zone holds, continuation toward the marked resistance is expected. If it fails, the idea is invalidated immediately. IT WORKS 90% OF THE TIMES THOUGH!
This setup is independent of session or time. Execution, risk management, and psychology decide the outcome — analysis only provides the framework. Risk is always predefined. No chasing. No emotional trades.
Trade the zone. Manage the risk. Let the market do the rest.
Happy Trading.
Short Covering vs. New Money (Waiting for the Catalyst)COMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGCG2026 FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
Traders. Mid-week context check as we wait for institutional commitment.
Market Context (The Mechanical Bounce): As noted in the previous update, yesterday's rotation was driven by Short Covering—old money exiting profitable shorts—rather than Initiative Buying (New Money) entering fresh longs.
The Trap: Short covering can lift the auction, but it lacks the sustained energy to break new highs. We are seeing price drift without aggressive volume.
Inventory: We are currently balancing above the Previous Week High (PWH). This zone is holding, but the auction feels "heavy" without fresh inflows.
The Fundamental "Hold" (Why Big Funds are Waiting): "Big Funds" are likely sidelined ahead of the tier-1 data dump. They need clarity before deploying serious capital for the week.
Today (Wed): ADP Payrolls & ISM Services.
Friday: The NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls).
The Reality: Until these numbers drop, we may remain in a "chop" or "balance" phase as institutions hedge rather than commit.
Plan & Execution:
Bias: Slightly Long, strictly conditional on holding above the PWH.
The Trigger: I need to see Follow Through. We need a volume spike (Initiative Buying) to confirm that "New Money" has arrived to defend this breakout.
Caution: If we fail to find acceptance higher and lose the PWH, expect a rotation back inside the previous balance to find liquidity.
Talk to you for the next update.
ASIA: B&R/RSTime: 20:45 GMT
4H Setup: REV/IBM
4H Confluences: EMA13, RSI reversal break, Weekly Level
15m Setup: B&R/RS
15m Confluences: EMA13, EMA89, EMA Cross
Target: 2R
ASIA: B&R/RTime: 20:45 GMT
4H Setup: REV/IBM
4H Confluences: EMA13, RSI reversal break, Weekly Level
15m Setup: B&R/R
15m Confluences: EMA13, EMA89, EMA Cross
Target: 2R
ASIA: B&R/OBMTime: 20:30 GMT
4H Setup: REV/IBM
4H Confluences: EMA13, RSI reversal break, Weekly Level
15m Setup: B&R/OBM
15m Confluences: EMA13, EMA89, EMA Cross
Target: 2R Bread & Butter
ASIA: BO/MTime: 20:15 GMT
4H Setup: REV/IBM
4H Confluences: EMA13, RSI reversal break, Weekly Level
15m Setup: BO/M
15m Confluences: EMA13, EMA89, EMA Cross
Target: 2R Bread & Butter
MGC Short2h OB reaction
Continuation of the retracement momentum in the 4h tf
Targeting low
Wide stop loss on this trade
ASIA: REV/MTime: 20:00 GMT
4H Setup: REV/IBM
4H Confluences: EMA13, RSI reversal break, Weekly Level
15m Setup: REV/M
15m Confluences: EMA13, EMA89, EMA Cross
Target: 2R bread and butter
ASIA: REV/IBMTime: 20:00 GMT
4H Setup: REV/IBM
4H Confluences: EMA13, RSI reversal break, Weekly Level
15m Setup: REV/IBM
15m Confluences: EMA13, EMA89, EMA Cross
Target: 5R based on 3 Session Setup
ASIA: s618/L-ATRTime: 19:45 GMT
4H Setup: REV/IBM
4H Confluences: EMA13, RSI reversal break, Weekly Level
15m Setup: s618/L-ATR
15m Confluences: EMA13, EMA89, EMA Cross
Target: 5R based on 3 Session Setup
Liquidation Break & The "New Money" TestCOMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGCG2026 FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
Following up on the previous context regarding the "Thin Structure Repair."
Market Context (The Repair): As anticipated, the auction corrected lower to repair the thin profile left behind by the holiday drift.
Monday: Developed as a Balance Day, digesting the recent move.
Today: We saw a Liquidation Break early in the session, effectively flushing out weak hands, followed by a rotation back up.
Structure & Inventory (The "Tell"): The current bounce is characteristic of Short Covering (old money exiting winning shorts) rather than Initiative Buying (new money entering longs).
The Trap: Short covering can rally price, but it is mechanical and temporary. It creates a "hollow" move if not supported by fresh volume.
The Requirement: To re-test and break the All-Time Highs, we need to see "New Money" step in. Without this sustained buying flow, the auction will lack the energy to hold higher prices.
Plan & Execution:
Stance: Cautious / Monitoring for flow confirmation.
Scenario A (Bullish): If we see aggressive Initiative Buying absorbing offers above the short-covering highs, we target the ATH.
Scenario B (Bearish): If the rally stalls and "new money" fails to show up, expect the market to rotate deeper to find supportive bids (value) at lower levels.
Talk to you for the next update.
15 min wow 1 min nested daily 4h up , here we have a 15 min demand. This demand removed opposing zones and broke trend line
our entry is at the 1 min nested in the 15 min, the market is high in the range so that goes lowers odds. were targeting 3R
Part 2 12/1/25Part 2 of previous post, did excactly what needed to be done! Gold 12/1/25 take profit
Switched to Futures 12/1/25 Switched to Futures from Options 12/1/25 2 contracts of Gold. 1,2,3 Lets go!
