Another mass hysteria to look at.
On this chart I took the sum of coronavirus new cases in GB + France + Italy + Germany + Spain + Portugal + The Netherlands.
A reminder, I posted the idea "Virus spread/Bacteria poluation/Ponzi scheme lifecycle" March 20th, as we were near the top of the Log Growth phase and everyone was...
Point of Maximum risk is taken as the Peak of the 2 Sigma Upper Bollinger Band
Current risk is taken as the (Current Upper Bollinger Band) / (Peak Upper Bollinger Band)
Austria risk level =7%
Germany risk level =25%
Open Border Risk = SQRT(0..07*0.25)= 13% Risk
Showing period of relief in exponential growth confirmed cases in Germany past days; diverging from exponential curve. Hope deceleration keeps up. Note that confirmed cases is a lagging indicator and does not represent total cases of infection today.