This is a very rough approximation of the IHME predictive model of deaths in the US due to COVID-19. I think many still fail to see the scale of the problem. Will be interesting to follow the data as this crisis unfolds.
Mortality = deaths / confirmed * 100
Asian countries curve is very flat, European countries very steep. In USA it is curving upward but still very low at 2%. The mortality from flu is about 0.1% in the USA so this is high, but the figure is still preliminary as no mass testing has been conducted. Deaths are confirmed, but the number of asymptomatic carriers is...
USA Deaths: 3 Trajectories
If and only if we stay on one of these trajectories will reach a Million deaths in the USA. I'm hoping we don't go parabolic, which would be a straight line up, breaking past it's current Trajectories.
These are just predictions, I could be wrong and actually hope I'm wrong.
"Flattening the curve" - this is what medical professionals are working on. Limiting public exposure will do this in a few weeks. The next two-three weeks will be very uncertain for the general population fixated on mainsteam media. Look at facts. This chart is very bad in what's going to happen next. But as of yesterday March 25, there was only 942 deaths in the...