ISM over 50 is Needed for Bull, but Liquitity / Debt Lowest...The ISM is finally pushing back above 50, which has been required for each of the last 2 major 'Bull Markets' prior to 2025.
But the last bull market didn't even get close.
What is the likely outcome?
Also the ratio of US Net Liquidity + M2 Money Supply / US Debt (FRED) continues to head lo
Key data points
Last release
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Observation period
Jan 2026
Next release
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Forecast
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Highest
77.50 POINT on Jul 31, 1950
Lowest
29.40 POINT on May 31, 1980
About United States ISM Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
The Manufacturing ISM Report On Business is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Imports, Production, Supplier Deliveries, Inventories, Customers' Inventories, Employment and Prices), the report shows the percentage reporting each response, the net difference between the number of responses in the positive economic direction and the negative economic direction, and the diffusion index. A PMI reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining.
Related indicators
World Recession ~ WWIII ~ History RepeatsDuring a long-term trend, the “four crucial points” of the stock market are reached when the Node enters the four fixed signs respectively:
January 11, 2025: Enters Aries (South Node in Libra) Aries: The business activity starts to fall below the normal level
July 26, 2026: Enters Pisces (South No
ISM PMI: Mapping Market Tops and Bottoms With USBCOIThis chart tracks the US ISM Manufacturing PMI (white line) against a long‑term mean (yellow) and two green envelope bands that frame extremes in the cycle. Historically, moves above the upper green band align with “market top” conditions and moves below the lower band align with “market bottom” con
$USBCOIUS -Manufacturing PMI Misses Forecast (August/2025)ECONOMICS:USBCOI
August/2025
source: Institute for Supply Management
- The ISM US Manufacturing PMI increased to 48.7 in August from 48.0 in July,
though it fell short of market expectations of 49.0.
The index signaled a sixth straight month of contraction, as a sharp drop in production was o
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