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US govt Shutdown Impact on GOLD/BTC/SPX/NDX Overview📊 Scenario analysis Assumed probabilities: 10-day (35%) / 20-day (40%) / 30-day (25%). These skew toward 20–30d expectation while allowing for a compromise CR late next week. 🗓️ 1) 10-day shutdown (quick CR by ~Oct 10) • 🔑 Catalysts: market wobble + travel/FAA headlines + IPO freeze optics force a deal; leadership meeting produces a clean CR. • 📉 SPX/NDX: -3% to -5% drawdown from pre-shutdown highs, then sharp relief. Mega-cap quality outperforms; small-caps lag on SBA loan pause. • 💻 Bitcoin: -3% to -8% (high beta to equities, liquidity cautious); quick snapback if the deal lands and SEC footprint stays light. • 🟡 Gold: +1% to +3%; fades a bit on resolution as real-rate anxiety reasserts. History shows shutdowns aren’t a reliable gold rocket on their own. 🗓️ 2) 20-day shutdown (through ~Oct 20) — “policy fog trade” • 🔑 Catalysts: prolonged policy riders; BEA/Census blackout delays GDP/retail sales; SEC skeletal staff extends IPO drought. Fed guidance leans on forecasts, not fresh data. • 📉 SPX/NDX: -5% to -8%. Factor rotation: low-vol/defensive > cyclicals; brokers/ECM-sensitive names soft; travel/airlines weak on FAA/TSA constraints. • 💻 Bitcoin: -8% to -15% or flat-to-up if “crypto vs. Washington” narrative picks up while enforcement is thin — mixed precedent. This is the most two-sided asset here. • 🟡 Gold: +3% to +6% as uncertainty premia build and central-bank-buying narrative stays intact. Stretching to $3,900–3,950 bullion target likely needs an added shock (ratings rhetoric, geopolitical flare). 🗓️ 3) 30-day shutdown (into late Oct) — “risk-off with rating overtones” • 🔑 Catalysts: political stalemate; louder warnings about governance; issuance continues but optics around fiscal sustainability bite. • 📉 SPX/NDX: -7% to -12%; HY spreads widen; VIX spikes; defensives/quality lead. • 💻 Bitcoin: -15% to -25% on de-risking and liquidity run-down unless regulatory paralysis creates a “wild west” window and ETF inflows offset — low probability but non-zero. • 🟡 Gold: +5% to +10%. A test of new cycle highs is plausible; hitting ~$3,900 quickly would likely require a ratings/FX scare, not just a shutdown. ________________________________________ 🧭 What’s different this time • 📉 Data blackout = policy uncertainty: Delays to GDP/retail sales/trade stats complicate Fed read-throughs — markets price fatter uncertainty premia. • 📜 Regulatory throttle: SEC/CFTC “skeletal staff” → IPO drought and slower filings (headwind to brokers/ECM), even as EDGAR stays up. • ✈️ Real-economy micro-pain points: FAA hiring/training halted → travel frictions; SBA lending paused → small-cap cash flow stress. • ⚠️ Ratings optics: After Moody’s downgrade, governance headlines cut deeper than in prior shutdowns. ________________________________________ 🤹 Contrarian angles 1. 🪙 “Bad data is no data” rally: If key prints are delayed, the market extrapolates a dovish Fed trajectory → curve bull-steepening and equities rally on rates, overpowering shutdown angst. 2. 💻 Crypto resilience: A lighter-touch SEC during a lapse can reduce headline risk; BTC has rallied during a shutdown before, though not consistently. 3. 🟡 Gold stall: If real yields back up on supply/duration worries rather than down on growth fear, gold can underperform despite the shutdown — history shows no clean positive beta. 4. 📈 Buy-the-resolution pop: Equities’ median post-shutdown performance is positive at 3–6 months — setting up a tactical sell the rumor / buy the cease-fire template. ________________________________________ 💡 Trades & risk management tactical, 2–6 weeks 📉 Equities (SPX/NDX) • 🛡️ Hedge now, monetize spikes: 4–6 week put spreads on SPX/NDX (≈25Δ/10Δ) sized for a -6–8% path; roll down if we breach the first support zone. Consider VIX 1–2M calls as convex tail protection. • 🔄 Pairs/tilts: Underweight ECM-sensitive brokers; overweight staples/health-care utilities; short airlines vs. travel alternatives until FAA constraints clear. 💻 Bitcoin • 🛡️ De-gear & collar: Reduce leverage; implement collars (sell 10–15Δ OTM calls to finance 20–25Δ puts). If we gap lower into -10% territory quickly, look to sell downside skew and pivot to short-dated call spreads into resolution. 🟡 Gold • 📈 Own upside, respect mean-reversion: Use GLD call spreads (1–2M) targeting +4–8% with limited theta. $3,900–$3,950 bullion target is a stretch on shutdown alone; size for base-case +3–6% unless a ratings/geopolitical catalyst emerges. 📉 Small-caps / credit • 🛑 IWM vs. QQQ underweight (SBA bottlenecks); keep HY credit hedged via CDX HY or HYG puts into Day 15+. ________________________________________ 🔍 Levels & signposts to watch • 🏛️ Policy tape: Any Senate movement on a “clean” CR; signs of healthcare rider compromise. • 📅 Data calendar: Official notices on jobs/CPI/GDP timing (BLS/BEA/Census). A confirmed delay → more policy fog premium. • ✈️ Micro stress: FAA/TSA updates; SEC operating status for registrations; SBA loan queue. • ⚠️ Ratings rhetoric: Any agency commentary tying shutdown length to governance risk. ________________________________________ 📝 Bottom line • 📉 Base path: A -5–8% equity drawdown with gold +3–6% and BTC -8–15% is the modal 2–4 week outcome if we run ~20 days. • ⚠️ Tail path: At 30 days, governance optics + data blackout can push SPX/NDX -7–12%, BTC -15–25%, gold +5–10%. • 🔄 Contrarian risk: A quick CR or a “no data → dovish” impulse squeezes shorts — be ready to pivot to a buy-the-resolution stance.
NASDAQ:NDXLong
by ProjectSyndicate
31
US100: Price action around important imbalance📊 SKILLING:US100 Analysis: Detailed trading scenario at key price level 24,443.6 🚀 The US 100 30-minute chart is currently illustrating a clear picture of price movements with significant support and resistance zones. At the moment, the price is undergoing a strong correction after a deep decline and is approaching crucial price areas, creating multiple potential trading opportunities for investors. ________________________________________ Support Zone 24,284.6 – The starting point for a potential bounce 💥 Currently, the price is nearing the technical support level around 24,284.6 – a key support area that is expected to hold considerable buying interest, potentially triggering a short-term bounce. Buyers may step in here to prevent further declines and initiate a recovery trend. Careful observation of price action around this zone is essential as it will determine the market’s next momentum: whether the price will rebound or break lower. ________________________________________ Immediate Resistance Levels and the Imbalance Zone at 24,443.6 🔍 Following a bounce from the 24,284.6 support, the expected scenario is a gradual move upwards to test important resistance levels: • First at 24,369.9, where initial selling pressure may emerge, challenging the upward momentum. • Next at 24,443.6, identified as a significant imbalance zone on the chart — a price level where price previously moved rapidly, creating a notable supply-demand gap. • This zone acts as a technical “wall,” a crucial checkpoint before the price can continue its upward trend or get pushed back down. ________________________________________ Detailed Price Movement Scenario 🔄 1. Price bounces from the support at 24,284.6, setting the stage for a recovery leg. 2. Price moves up to test the first resistance at 24,369.9; the reaction here indicates the buyers’ strength. 3. Price then challenges the imbalance zone at 24,443.6 — where significant selling pressure may occur. 4. At this level, two scenarios may unfold: • Price breaks above 24,443.6, confirming the uptrend and targeting the next resistance at 24,621.9. • Price rejects this zone, leading to selling pressure that pushes price back to retest the 24,284.6 support or even lower. ________________________________________ Downside scenario if support at 24,284.6 fails 🛡️ In the worst case, if price breaks below the crucial support at 24,284.6, further declines toward a broader support zone at 24,067.5 are likely. This level may act as the next key area for price stabilization and buyer interest before any potential rebound. Please like and comment below to support our traders. Your reactions will motivate us to do more analysis in the future 🙏✨ Harry Andrew @ ZuperView
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by ZuperView
Will the second scenario come true? |October 17 2025Based on the evidence, price action, and fundamental news, it seems the second scenario is about to play out. The Nasdaq index turned positive after recovering its losses when Trump responded “No” to a question about whether he would maintain the heavy tariffs on China. From today, my outlook is bullish until the previous high gets hunted — after that, I’ll reassess whether we’re likely to see further downside or if the bullish outlook should remain. If market conditions shift and a continuation of the downtrend becomes more likely, we can take a solid short position next week to catch the move. But for now, my bias is bullish, and the second scenario will likely play out. If price reaches the second high I marked in blue, we’ll probably see a reaction from that zone. If I open a trade, I’ll share it with you.
FPMARKETS:US100Long
by Wall_StreetWolf
US100: Breakout signals a strong second bullish leg🧩 Market Context On the 30-minute chart, SKILLING:US100 index shows renewed bullish momentum after a phase of sideways consolidation. Following a deep correction, price action has started forming higher highs and higher lows, suggesting that buyers are gradually regaining control. 🔍 Price Structure and Breakout Price has recently broken out above a short-term consolidation zone and a rising trendline. This breakout reinforces the short-term bullish bias and could mark the start of a second upward leg in the current recovery. Statistically, when a breakout happens after tight accumulation, the next bullish leg often becomes equal to or larger than the previous one, as momentum builds and buyers gain confidence. 📈 Key Price Levels • Resistance 1: 24,914 – prior rejection zone in the last upward move. • Resistance 2: 25,074 – distribution area before the previous drop. • Support: 24,700 – 24,750 (former resistance now acting as potential support). ⚙️ Trading Scenarios (for observation only) • After the breakout, price may retest the previous resistance zone (around 24,700–24,750) before continuing higher. • If buyers defend this level, the second bullish leg could extend toward 24,914 and possibly 25,074. • Conversely, a close back below 24,700 may trigger a deeper pullback before any continuation attempt. 🧠 Summary The technical structure on US100 favors a short-term bullish outlook. A successful retest of the breakout zone could pave the way for a second upward leg, potentially matching or exceeding the size of the previous rally. ______________________________________ 📌 This analysis is for educational and technical purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Please like and comment below to support our traders. Your reactions will motivate us to do more analysis in the future 🙏✨ Harry Andrew @ ZuperView
SKILLING:US100Long
by ZuperView
NASDAQ 100 (NDX)-The Grand Super Cycle Journey🧠 The Grand Super Cycle Journey of NASDAQ 100 (NDX) Here's a comprehensive, narrative-style description of NASDAQ 100 (NDX) INDEX based on Elliott Wave Theory , Smart Money Concepts (SMC) , Fibonacci Retracements/Extensions , Price Action , and Fundamentals across Super Cycle , Macro , and Micro Waves 🔍📈: 🌱 Super Cycle Wave 1: The Birth of Tech (1986–2000) The journey begins with Wave 1 , ignited by the early tech boom — Microsoft, Intel, and the rise of Silicon Valley 🚀. This impulsive leg spans over a decade, culminating in the dot-com bubble peak in 2000. 🔹 Smart Money Insight: Early accumulation started in the '80s, followed by massive markup into the 1990s. Retail entered late, leading to the euphoric climax in 2000. 🔹 Price Action: Parabolic rallies, breakouts through historical resistance, ending in a massive overextension. 🔹 Fundamentals: Era of growth, innovation, low inflation, and initial internet adoption. 🌪️ Super Cycle Wave 2: The Great Correction (2000–2009) The bursting of the dot-com bubble triggered a complex correction labeled as W-X-Y. This 9-year structure ends in the 2008–09 financial crisis low. The market retraced to the 0.382 Fibonacci level , a classic deep correction in a strong long-term bull market. 🔸 Smart Money: Distribution at the top → manipulation through global uncertainty (9/11, housing bubble) → reaccumulation near the 2009 lows 🧠📉. 🔸 Fundamentals: Enron scandal, 9/11, housing collapse, Lehman bankruptcy — a decade of fear and instability 🏚️. 🚀 Super Cycle Wave 3: The Exponential Phase (2009–2029)* The most powerful leg — Wave 3 — is unfolding, targeting an eventual 2.618 Fibonacci extension (~85,000) . This wave is subdivided into 5 Macro Waves , each composed of 5 Micro Waves . Here's how the structure progresses: ⚙️ Macro Wave 1 (2009–2012) Started at the GFC low, this wave marked the beginning of recovery, finishing with 5 orange micro waves . 🟠 Micro Waves: A clean 5-wave impulse showing the early stages of structural strength. 📊 Price Action: Break of structure (BoS) confirms bullish reversal. 🏦 Fundamentals: QE1/QE2, low interest rates, tech stabilization, birth of FAANG era 💻. 📈 Smart Money: Institutions started accumulating in late 2009–2010, reflected in tight consolidations and sharp rallies. 🔁 Macro Wave 2 (2012) A brief and shallow correction within the bullish context — a classic bullish flag in terms of price action. Quickly ended with higher lows. 🧠 SMC: Short manipulation phase to shake weak hands. 📉 Price Action: Pullback respected prior structure — no trend break. 💥 Macro Wave 3 (2012–2021) This was the largest and most explosive wave , extending over 9 years and forming 5 purple micro waves. 🟣 Micro Waves: Clean impulsive structure, confirming a classic Elliott wave fractal. 💡 Fundamentals: Rise of cloud computing Mobile-first economy AI, semiconductors, and social media explosion COVID-19 crash and rebound — the fastest recovery in history 🔹 Fibonacci: No deep retracements — sign of a healthy, powerful wave 3. 🧠 Smart Money: Deep accumulation during COVID crash → massive expansion post-March 2020 📈. 🧱 Macro Wave 4 (2021–2022) A healthy correction that reset the structure — completed around the 2022 low. This wave maintained market structure integrity. 🔻 SMC: Liquidity sweep of previous lows + mitigation of demand zones. 📊 Price Action: Range-bound, bearish to neutral. 🌍 Macro Headwinds: Interest rate hikes Inflation fears Global instability (Russia-Ukraine, energy crisis) 🧬 Macro Wave 5 (2022–2029) – Now Unfolding* This is the final thrust of the Super Cycle Wave 3 , subdivided into 5 micro waves (current count in progress): 🔸 Micro Wave 1 ✅ Initial rally from 2022 lows, showing strong impulsive behavior. 🧠 Smart Money: Confirmed shift from reaccumulation to expansion. 🔸 Micro Wave 2 ✅ Pullback formed higher low — acted as final reaccumulation. 🔴 Micro Wave 3 – In Process (2025–2026) This is expected to be the strongest wave within Macro Wave 5, projected to peak near 36,000 (2.618 extension of micro 1–2). 📈 Price Action: Aggressive higher highs and shallow pullbacks. 🧠 SMC: Expansion with little liquidity left below — institutions pushing price up. 💡 Fundamentals: AI hypergrowth US tech dominance AI chips, quantum computing, tokenization Renewed bullish risk appetite 🌐 🟠 Micro Wave 4 (Expected 2026–2027) A corrective wave likely to retest the macro structure — forming a flag or triangle. 📉 Price Action: Sideways to downward chop, retracing 0.382–0.5 of wave 3. 🧠 SMC: Inducement setup before final rally. 🌍 Macro: Possible geopolitical or monetary tightening phase. 🔵 Micro Wave 5 (Expected Top in 2029) The final leg of Macro Wave 5 and Super Cycle Wave 3. Expected to top near 85,000 , a 2.618% Fibonacci extension of Super Cycle Waves 1–2. 🎯 Final Parabolic Blow-Off 📊 Price Action: Euphoria, exponential rally, low-volume melt-up 📈 Smart Money: Final distribution phase — retail FOMO peaks 🧨 Fundamentals: Mania phase — “everything AI/metaverse/tokenized” narrative, record valuations, IPO booms. 🔮 Looking Beyond: Super Cycle Wave 4 (Post-2029) Once the 85K target is met, a multi-year correction is expected — possibly deep and drawn out. Historically, Wave 4s retrace 0.236% to 0.382% and take years to unfold. 🧠 Expect: Systemic debt pressure Currency shifts Economic reset themes Potential Fed policy overcorrection Liquidity crunch 🌧️ Super Cycle Wave 4 may retest previous demand zones around 30–36K. 📚 Final Thoughts Our analysis represents an extraordinary blend of Elliott Wave fractals , institutional behavior (SMC) , and macro-fundamental alignment . We are in the late phase of a historical Super Cycle rally — but Wave 3 still has room to run 📈. ✅ Wave Count Aligned ✅ Fibonacci Extensions Respected ✅ SMC Structure Intact ✅ Macro-Fundamentals in Sync 📌 2025–2029 could be the final push before a generational correction. Smart investors must watch for distribution signs post-36K 📊. "Trust the waves, not the noise." – FIBCOS 🌊 📘 Disclaimer: This is a structural, educational market outlook. Not financial advice. Please do your own due diligence and risk management. #FIBCOS #ElliottWave #SmartMoneyConcept #MarketAnalysis #NASDAQ #XAUUSD #SuperCycle #MacroTrend #SmartMoney #Fibonacci #PriceAction #Commodities #Stocks #TechnicalAnalysis #LongTermOutlook
NASDAQ:NDXLong
by fibcos
Can NASDAQ100’s Retest Turn Into a Full-Fledged Rally?⚡ NASDAQ100 — “The Wall Street Engine” Trade Opportunity Guide (Swing / Day Trade) Plan: 📈 Bullish confirmation awaited at the Hull Moving Average retest. When price respects that dynamic zone and momentum aligns, the Thief layers up — ready to stack positions like a pro! 💰 Thief Strategy Playbook: Thief’s weapon? Layering entries — the art of scaling in like a patient hunter. Multiple buy limit orders are placed around: 🔹 24,400 🔹 24,500 🔹 24,600 (You can adjust or add more layers based on your own trading structure and capital.) 🛡️ Stop-Loss: This is the Thief’s SL → @24,200 🕵️‍♂️ Note to all Thief OGs: I’m not recommending that you copy my SL — risk management is your call. Remember: Make money, then take money at your own risk. 🎯 Target Zone: @25,300 — where the POLICE BARRICADE (resistance) stands tall! ⚠️ The zone aligns with overbought levels + liquidity trap potential, so don’t overstay your welcome. Escape with profits like a smart thief before the market cuffs you! 💨 🕵️‍♂️ Note again to Thief OGs: Targets are flexible — adapt based on your execution and structure confirmation. 🔍 Correlated Assets to Watch: SP:SPX (S&P500) — often mirrors NASDAQ’s overall direction. TVC:DJI (Dow Jones) — gives early risk-on/risk-off sentiment clues. TVC:US10Y (US Treasury Yield) — rising yields can pressure tech stocks. TVC:VIX (Volatility Index) — watch for volatility spikes; they often precede reversals. Correlation Key Insight: When the dollar weakens and yields cool, NASDAQ tends to fly 🚀 — liquidity rotation favors growth stocks and tech-heavy indices. ⚙️ Quick Recap: ✅ Bias: Bullish (with retest confirmation at Hull MA) 💸 Entry Zone: 24,400 → 24,600 (Layered limits) 🧱 SL: 24,200 (risk-controlled zone) 🎯 TP: 25,300 (liquidity + resistance zone) ⚠️ Risk: Adjust position size and trail stops as structure evolves ✨ “If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!” 📜 Disclaimer: This is a Thief-style trading strategy — designed for entertainment, education, and market storytelling. Trade responsibly; it’s just for fun, not financial advice. #NASDAQ100 #US100 #IndexTrading #HullMA #PriceAction #MarketStructure #SwingTrade #DayTrade #TechnicalAnalysis #SmartMoneyConcepts #TradingCommunity #ThiefTrader #ChartArt #EditorPickCandidate
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Long
by The-Thief
Us100 - Breakout Setup In PlayThe market has formed a rising channel after a significant bullish reversal marked by a Change of Character (CHoCH) and a Break of Structure (BOS). Price is currently consolidating near the midline of the ascending channel. 🔍 Key Insight: We're in a wait-and-watch zone — a breakout from this channel in either direction could set the tone for the next move. Trading Plan: Upside Breakout: Watch for a breakout above the upper boundary of the channel with strong bullish momentum. Target the projected move equal to the height of the channel. Downside Breakout: If price breaks below the lower channel support, expect a potential bearish move toward the lower target zone marked on the chart. Important: Wait for a clear breakout and confirmation before entering a trade. Avoid entering inside the channel to minimize risk from false moves.
CAPITALCOM:US100
by Hamza_Gold
15 OCT 2025: OUTLOOK2 SCENARIOS TO CONTEMPLATE - Will observe price action and react accordingly DISCLAIMER: The owner of this page is an authorised Representative under supervision of TD MARKETS (PTY) LTD, an authorised Financial Services Provider (FSP No. 49128) licensed by the Financial Sector Conduct Authority (FSCA) under the Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act (FAIS). The FSP is licensed to provide advice and intermediary services in respect of Category I financial products, including but not limited to derivative instruments, long-term deposits, and short-term deposits. All investment ideas are provided in accordance with the scope of the FSP's license and applicable regulatory requirements. Derivative instruments is a leveraged products that carry high risks and could result in losing all of your capital, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This idea and any attachments are informational/education and does not constitute a recommendation to buy/sell. No guarantee is made regarding the accuracy or outcome of this trade idea. If you choose to accept this idea, please do so at your own risk.
CAPITALCOM:US100
by CEO_SKAI_KAPITAL_PTY_LTD
1
Nasdaq Nears Decision PointNasdaq remains within its bullish trend channel but is approaching a decision point. The 24,200 and 24,000 levels are two key supports holding back further downside. If these supports fail, it could trigger a multi-day selloff. So far, the downward pressure has mostly come from regional banks, keeping the decline in Nasdaq limited. However, if concerns over the rare earth supply chain grow due to trade disputes between China and the US, this could trigger a broader selloff in Nasdaq.
CAPITALCOM:US100
by ftdsystem
Nas100 - Pulls Back from Record Levels, Testing Critical SupportZone 1: Major Supply / Rejection Area This zone aligns with the upper consolidation structure from which the last impulsive sell-off originated. Sellers have shown clear presence here, making it a strong supply pocket. As long as price remains below, it acts as a tactical short zone or at least a reaction point where momentum may fade. A sustained break and acceptance above would neutralize the selling pressure and open the door for a retest of the highs. Asia Session High: Intraday Pivot This intraday level marks short-term liquidity and offers a reference point for session-based structure. If price holds below it, short-term bias stays bearish toward the lower demand zone; reclaiming it intraday could trigger a squeeze back into Zone 1. Zone 2: Key Demand / Buy-Side Liquidity Area This zone has repeatedly acted as a strong buy-side absorption region. It represents the base of the prior impulse move, where aggressive buyers stepped in to defend structure. A clean hold here could produce a sharp rebound, while a decisive break below would confirm a shift in market control toward sellers and potentially start a deeper correction cycle. Sentiment The Nas100 remains near record highs, with sentiment best described as bullish but cautious. The market is still being driven by expectations of upcoming Fed rate cuts, falling bond yields, and strong momentum in AI and large-cap tech stocks. Despite a weaker macro backdrop, investors continue to treat the tech sector as a structural growth play and a safe haven in an uncertain environment. However, the tone is far from euphoric. The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has created a “data blackout,” leaving traders without key economic releases such as CPI or employment figures. This has made the market more headline-driven and prone to volatility. At the same time, renewed U.S.–China trade tensions and rising warnings about overvaluation are keeping risk awareness high. Overall, sentiment on US100 remains positive, supported by liquidity and tech optimism, but the rally rests on fragile ground - driven more by policy expectations and momentum than by clear fundamental strength.
FPMARKETS:US100
by Kathrine_Sofie