ETH 4H Analysis - Key Triggers Ahead | Day 28❄️ Welcome to the cryptos winter , I hope you’ve started your day well.
⏰ We’re analyzing BINANCE:ETHUSDT on the 4-Hour timeframe .
👀 On the 4-hour chart, after the recent drop, Ethereum managed to hold above $3,900 thanks to support from its maker-buyer zone. Price is currently trading below a key resistance at $4,034. A breakout and confirmation above this level could lead ETH toward its next major trend-shift resistance.
The primary resistance for initiating a new bullish leg sits at $4,133. A break and stabilization above this zone could trigger a solid upside move, potentially extending toward the $4,800 area.
🧮 The RSI oscillator shows that during the recent sell-off, ETH dipped twice into deep oversold territory, with significant time spent under selling momentum. The key RSI zone now is the 50 baseline, which acts as resistance. A momentum break above this level would support price stabilization over $4,034, and allow ETH to retest and potentially break its resistance on the way to the overbought zone.
🕯 The candle size and volume on the rebound from the maker-buyer support have been reasonably strong, suggesting that ETH has likely established a key floor around $3,837. As price approached the $4,034 resistance, red candles have become smaller — signaling weakening bearish pressure and absorption of sell orders at that zone.
Given the weekend environment, volume has cooled off, and price is moving in a range. With the start of the new week, increased volume could spark a breakout, and trader reaction on ETH may be notable.
💸 The BINANCE:ETHBTC pair is also sitting below a key resistance zone. A breakout and confirmation here could shift ETH’s trading behavior and momentum. On RSI, the pair is around the 50 level, showing reduced volatility due to weekend conditions.
The first key resistance is at 0.03687. A breakout and confirmation above this level could support a long setup on ETH. However, the critical resistance sits at 0.03853 — which aligns with the pair’s overbought potential. Breaking and stabilizing above that level would likely trigger notable bullish continuation, but only if RSI enters the overbought zone as confirmation.
🧠 Since CRYPTOCAP:USDT.D recently rejected from 4.72% and Bitcoin has shown some support, Ethereum now holds a reliable floor that can be used for long setups once the specified resistances break. Two main scenarios are in play:
1️⃣ Scenario 1: We need a higher-timeframe candle close above key resistance, starting with $4,034, which also aligns with RSI’s 50-level resistance.
After that, spotting a multi-timeframe indecision candle could allow an entry with controlled risk.
Upon a confirmed break of the major resistance at $4,133, or signs of trend reversal, additional position size can be added.
Essentially, we require a higher low above $4,034, enabling formation of a higher high and eventual breakout through $4,133.
2️⃣ Scenario 2 : A short on ETH is less favorable due to strong buying interest at current levels and weaker risk-to-reward. However, if price breaks and confirms below the key support and maker-buyer zone, a deeper correction could follow.
❤️ Disclaimer : This analysis is purely based on my personal opinion and I only trade if the stated triggers are activated .
