EURUSD either will see sideways action for a while or a decisive push to the downsideEuro / U.S. Dollar forum
EURUSD either will see sideways action for a while or a decisive push to the downside
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EURUSD Retail and institutions seem bullish on EUR, but commercials are taking short positions. this could be a sign of a “trap”Let's discuss the "trap signs" referred to in the analysis above, especially from the perspective of COT (Commitment of Traders) last time.
Who are "Commercials", "Retail", and "Institutional"?
1. Retail Traders (yellow):
• Small traders (like us usually).
• Often enter the market late.
• Data shows they are now very bullish on EUR (68% long).
2. Institutional / Non-Commercials (blue):
• Hedge funds, big speculators.
• They are also net long EUR, meaning they are optimistic.
3. Commercials (black):
• Large banks, multinational companies (hedging real business needs).
• They are not speculators, but they are very smart and disciplined.
• When they are net short, it is often a sign that the price will fall in the near future (because they are positioning against the euphoria).
What Does That Trap Mean?
For example:
• Now EUR/USD looks bullish.
• Retail and institutions are all “buying”.
• But it turns out that Commercials are secretly placing a lot of shorts.
• This could be a signal that this upward movement is a “false move” or bull trap, before the price reverses sharply down.
Why?
Because usually, when all retailers have joined in buying, the market lacks “new buyers” and this is the ideal moment for smart money (Commercials) to sell at a high price.
So Be Careful If:
• RSI is approaching overbought
• Price is near strong resistance
• Retail is too optimistic (COT data)
• Commercials take opposite positions
EURUSD I made $5 this week. You're all jealous. When lambo 🐑👙? 😎
EURUSD Price moving sideways with low volume!!!!! Headache
EURUSD next week is also going to be sideway...