Macro Monday 19
Total Non-Farm Payrolls: Pre-Recession Observations
What is Non-Farm Payroll?
The nonfarm payroll measures the number of workers in the U.S. includes 80% of US workers. The figures exclude farm workers (Nonfarm) and workers in several other job classifications such as military and non-profit employees.
Data on nonfarm payrolls is collected by...
First and foremost, I want to clarify that I am not someone who promotes doom and gloom or a "recessionista FED PIOVITOOR."
However, I have been consistently bearish on the stock market, as evidenced by my calls on TradingView. I believe in keeping
things simple, yet not overly simplistic. In fact, I first began sounding the alarm about a recession signal being...
I'm giving her all she's got, captain!
"The current economic outlook is highly favorable, with a low unemployment rate of 3.4% and a near maximum employment-to-population ratio.
The economy also benefits from positive credit growth and record-high levels of industrial production. Additionally, imports have reached an
all-time high of nearly $1 trillion, and the...
Don't be fooled. 3.9% UR in the context of a smaller labor force That peaked in 2000.
This chart shows all All Employees, Total Nonfarm divided by population size.
As you can see all employees to population kept skyrocketing from 1957 to 2000 with
deficits next to nothing. SInce 2000, all employees have flatlined at best while
deficits keep increasing...
374K ADP
720K Estimates
235K BLS
- As 9 Million people loses their unemployment benefits.
The largest miss in along time.
AN excuse for Mojo-Jojo to continue, while the Chefs
added chicken instead of shrimp.
Laughable.
When we see the chart, PAYEMS falls at a 90 degree angle, whether that's what causes recovery is also fast ?
Note :
Economic Data Overview : This not trading
Trading time for money is not a winning strategy in the United States, an idea which is clearly evident in the trends shown here. To capture even a reasonable share of your delivered economic value, you need to start a business.
Ever since "Printapalooza" started in the basement of the Eccles building in 2008, financial assets have been on a long strange trip, a trip that has seen them floating on a sea of conjured-up currency units, and increasingly detached from the economic realities of the day.
Nowhere is this more evident than in the major averages. Consider the chart of the S&P...
Here we have US jobs figures versus the change in US nonfarm payrolls. At the extremes, the correlation is negative - dramatic job loss is usually indicative of economic and financial instability that revives the currency's safe haven status. For now, the robust figures look to be a bullish support.
