US30 A Series of Unfortunate Events: Smells like manipulation to many traders worldwide when trading had suddenly halted. Here's what happened behind the scenes: - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange experienced a "cooling issue" with their data center, just after Silver spiked up by 3%...Hmmm.
- Gold trading was suspended, due to a liquidity issue...Double Hmmm.
- Two more doozies: the banks asked the U.S. Federal Reserve to loan them $24.4 billion. CME trading resumed once the infusion of liquidity came in for the banks, while rumors are floating around that China wanted a delivery of 400 million troy ounces of Silver earlier.
*For details on all this, go to the Hal Turner Radio Show online for an article entitled "Gold Trading SUSPENDED "Liquidity Issue" - As Silver Spikes Up in Price, Chicago Mercantile Exchange Suffers Data Center "Cooling Issue" Shuts Down"
(We're not allowed to create a link to a site outside of Tradingview's Minds, according to House Rules.)
US30 It's limited hours for Black Friday, so here's how the Hourly looks.
On the chart below, you can see that the bears are doing a pullback towards the Bullish Trendline (in green dotted line). It's either to test this as a strong "rope" of Support OR cross down and to the right of the trendline, flipping the market bias from bullish to bearish. Watch for either scenario.
Two Possibilities: A resumption of the bullish trend from the trendline can be towards the take profit of 47,898 that's from a measured move of a bullish trend, extended out.
Or a crossing of the trendline to flip the market bias to bearish can mean more profitable moves to the downside, towards the S&R Zone below that begins at 47,418.
As a reminder, due to two Triple Inside Days and a Double Inside Day, there will likely be more than one BIG move besides the bullish one earlier.
US30 Fundamental Analysis ๐: K-shaped recovery post-shutdown; AI investments prop growth, but tariffs & policy flux add drag. Earnings solid in tech/finance, broader sectors like industrials/utilities hit records. Macroeconomics ๐: Q4 GDP at 3.9% annualized pace โ robust consumer spend (3% real growth) offsets shutdown scars (0.5pp hit). Seasonal Tendencies ๐: November favors bulls โ historical 41.9% return from Nov 12 to Jan 2 over 10yrs, 10/10 positive hits. End-year rally mode engaged. Interest Rates ๐น: Fed funds at 4.5-4.75%; recent 75bps cuts signal easing, 50% odds for Dec trim. Inflation Rates ๐ฅ: CPI at 3.0% YoY (Sep); core PCE 2.9% โ above 2% target but cooling, sticky at 3.3% in spots. Economic Growth ๐: 1.9% annual GDP for 2025; Q3 surge to 3.8%, Q4 holds strong despite fiscal hiccups. Jobs Market ๐ท: Unemployment steady at 4.4%; NFP adds ~50K (Sep delayed print) โ softening demand, long-term jobless at 23.6%, but layoffs low. Bank Orders (COT Signals) ๐ฆ: Data lag from shutdown; resuming Nov 19 โ commercials hedge heavy, specs net long on rebound bets. Sentiment Outlook ๐:
Retail Traders: 55% bullish (crowd signal: optimistic on AI/earnings) ๐ข Institutional Activity: 62% net long (accumulation in upswings) ๐ข Overall investor mood: Cautiously upbeat, jobs plentiful at 6% (down from 28.6%).
Fear & Greed Index โ๏ธ: 52 (Neutral) โ Balanced; momentum positive, volatility tame, but put/call ratio hints nerves. Correlations ๐:
US30 I just had to take a peek before I go back in the kitchen with a fire extinguisher: A Triple Inside Day, followed by a Double Inside Day showed up on the Hourly. Holy Cannoli! That means one or two really BIG moves are coming, either to the upside or the downside.
US30 A Series of Unfortunate Events:
