Oracle Is Up 80% Since April. What Does Its Chart Tell Us?Oracle NYSE:ORCL will release fiscal Q1 results next week at a time when the tech giant's stock has risen more than 80% from its April lows, but also given back some 15% since hitting a 52-week high in late July. Let's see what the stock's technical and fundamental analysis can tell us.
Oracle's Fundamental Analysis
ORCL, which will report results after the bell on Tuesday, rose nearly 120% over the less than three months between its $118.86 April 7 intraday low and its $260.87 intraday July 31 high.
That included a 22% gain over two sessions that followed its fiscal Q4 2025 results' release on June 11.
Those earnings beat the Street's estimates for both revenues at adjusted earnings, with year-over-year sales growth accelerating to 11.3% from 6% in the prior quarter. In fact, the results marked the first time Oracle saw double-digit percentages for sales growth since 2023.
Beyond the headline results, ORCL's remaining performance obligation rose 41%, while cloud revenues (IaaS and SaaS) grew 27%.
Company founder and Chairman Larry Ellison said at the time that multi-cloud database revenue from Amazon, Google and Azure alone grew 115% between the company's fiscal Q3 and Q4. He added: "We expect triple-digit multi-cloud revenue growth to continue in FY26."
For fiscal Q1, analysts expect Oracle to post $1.48 in adjusted earnings per share on roughly $15.1 billion of revenue. That would represent 6.5% growth from the $1.39 in adjusted EPS that ORCL reported in the same period last year, as well as about a 13.5% y/y gain from last year's $13.3 billion in revenues.
The Street also projects 16% sales growth for Oracle's fiscal year as a whole, along with 19% revenue expansion in fiscal 2027. This supports just what Ellison said.
However, not everyone is sold on that. Of the 33 sell-side analysts that I can find that cover ORCL, 12 have revised their earnings estimates higher since the quarter began, while 10 have revised their projections lower. (Eleven made no changes.)
Oracle's Technical Analysis
Now let's take a look at Oracle's year-to-date chart as of Wednesday:
How interesting is this? ORCL started the year with what's called an "inverse head-and-shoulders" pattern of bullish reversal with a $163 pivot, as denoted by the purple jagged line and purple field at the chart's left.
The stock then rallied from there, but developed a head-and-shoulders pattern of bearish reversal from late June unto the president day. This pattern has a $229 downside pivot that appears to have just recently been triggered. (ORCL closed at $223 Thursday.)
Making matters even trickier for the bulls, Oracle has just suffered what's called "baby death cross" or "swing trader's death cross," marked with a red box at the chart's right.
That's when a stock's 21-day Exponential Moving Average (or "EMA," denoted by a green line) crosses below its 50-day Simple Moving Average (or "SMA," marked with a blue line). That's usually considered a short- to medium-term bearish technical signal.
The other indicators in the chart above are likewise sending less-than-joyous signals ahead of Oracle's earnings.
For example, the stock's Relative Strength Index (the gray line at the chart's top) is weak, although not technically oversold.
Similarly, Oracle's daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator (or "MACD," denoted by black and gold lines and blue bars at the chart's bottom) is getting gnarly.
The histogram of the 9-day EMA (the blue bars) is in negative territory and has been since mid-July.
Meanwhile, the stock's 12-day EMA (the black line) crossed below the 26-day EMA (the gold line) in early July and has never recovered. In fact, the gap between the two lines has only increased while both headed lower and now stand in negative territory. That can typically be a bearish signal.
Investors should also be cognizant that Oracle's chart has an unfilled gap from early July that would need a tick as low as $176.38 to completely fill in. That would require about a 20% drop from Thursday's close.
(Moomoo Technologies Inc. Markets Commentator Stephen “Sarge” Guilfoyle had no position in ORCL at the time of writing this column.)
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