XAUUSD-Gold for Monday 11/17/2025Im using SNR,FIBO, FVG and Trendline to do my analysis
Kindly refer to my analysis in the chart with text
Trade ideas
XAU/USD – Strong Bullish Trend Holds Firm as Price Consolidates Gold continues to trade in a powerful bullish structure on the H1 timeframe, respecting the ascending trendline and forming steady higher highs and higher lows. After the recent impulsive rally, price is now consolidating just above a newly formed demand zone – a typical pattern before the next breakout.
The market remains supported by multiple stacked demand layers, suggesting strong institutional accumulation beneath current price.
Key Technical Zones
Immediate Demand Zone: 4210 – 4185
Price is holding above this fresh demand block, showing strong buyer presence.
Secondary Demand Zone: 4145 – 4125
This zone provided the earlier breakout base and remains a key support for any deeper pullback.
Major Demand Base: 4020 – 3985
The origin of the entire uptrend and the area where aggressive buyers previously entered.
Market Structure & Trend Analysis
Uptrend remains intact with clean reactions at each demand zone
Price is consolidating near the highs, often a signal of bullish continuation
No bearish break of structure observed
Trendline support remains respected throughout the move
The current price action suggests that bulls are preparing for another upward push as long as price stays above the nearest demand zone.
Trading Strategy
Buy the Retest (Primary Setup):
Look for a dip into 4210 – 4185
Wait for bullish confirmation candles
Target: 4245 and 4260
Deeper Pullback Buy Zone:
If price pulls back further, the 4145 – 4125 zone offers a high-probability entry aligned with the trend.
Invalidation:
A clean H1 close below 4120 would signal weakening bullish structure and open the door to a deeper correction.
Summary
XAU/USD maintains a strong bullish trend with healthy pullbacks into well-defined demand zones. As long as price holds above key supports, continuation toward new highs remains the dominant scenario.
If this analysis aligns with your strategy, follow for more high-quality trading setups each day.
Gold - Shorts - Historical proof🟠 How Traders Could Interpret the Orange Candles
(Price-Action Only )
The orange candles highlight moments where the selling pressure becomes unusually strong during a clear downward environment. You don’t need to know any internal calculations — the chart already shows the important context visually.
Here’s how users could have read these moments, purely from the candles and the structure around them:
🟠 1. Each orange candle appears during a strong push downward
On all the marked spots, you can visually see:
A large bearish candle compared to surrounding candles
A clear downward close
Momentum accelerating in the direction the market was already moving
This makes the orange candles easy to understand visually:
They highlight strong bearish expansion inside an already bearish swing.
📉 2. They show momentum continuation, not reversal signals
Looking at the chart:
Before each orange candle → price is already moving down.
After each orange candle → price continues lower or forms another push down.
So visually, the candles reinforce the idea that the market is pushing with renewed strength, not hesitating.
Traders often view this kind of candle as a sign that sellers have stepped in aggressively again.
🧱 3. How many price-action traders might visually use them
(Purely descriptive — NOT trading advice.)
When an orange candle appears:
The market is visibly trending downward.
A large bearish candle forms.
The momentum aligns with the direction of the trend.
A trader might visually interpret this as:
“The sellers are clearly in control again. If price continues downward on the next bar, this could be a continuation of the trend.”
Again: this is not a buy/sell instruction, just an explanation of how chart readers typically interpret strong candles within a trend.
🔎 4. Visual walk-through of the chart you provided
🟠 First orange candle (far left)
Appears after a small pullback upward.
The market prints a strong bearish candle, visually showing that the pullback has ended and downside momentum is returning.
Price continues lower afterward.
🟠 Middle orange candles
These show up repeatedly after small sideways pauses.
Each one marks a moment where sellers regain control and push the market.
After the orange bars, the trend resumes downward.
🟠 Final orange candle (far right)
Appears as price attempts to rise but fails.
The orange candle shows a strong downward rejection.
Trend continues in the same direction after.
Nothing in this interpretation relies on knowing your moving averages, ATR usage, filters, or thresholds — everything is visible on the chart.
📘 5. Important wording
This does not indicate or recommend trades.
The orange bars simply highlight visually strong bearish expansion within the current structure.
How a trader reacts to them is entirely up to their own system, rules, and risk management.
Gold Price Outlook – Trade Setup (XAU/USD)📊 Technical Structure
OANDA:XAUUSD Gold (XAU/USD) extended its bullish run, reaching a new three-week high around $4,213, before encountering selling pressure near the Resistance Zone ($4,210–$4,216). The metal is now consolidating, with intraday support forming near $4,183–$4,188, aligning with the previous breakout level.
The short-term structure suggests a potential corrective dip before another push higher, as long as support holds above $4,181. A retest of the $4,212–$4,216 zone remains the primary upside target, while failure to sustain above support could expose the $4,170 area.
🎯 Trade Setup
Idea: Buy on dip near support, targeting retest of recent highs.
Entry: $4,188 – $4,183
Stop Loss: $4,181
Take Profit 1: $4,211
Take Profit 2: $4,216
Risk–Reward Ratio: ≈ 1 : 4.23
A close below $4,180 would invalidate the bullish setup, suggesting deeper retracement toward $4,170–$4,165.
🌐 Macro Background
Gold remains well-supported amid dovish Fed expectations and lingering economic concerns, despite a stronger risk appetite following the U.S. government reopening.
FXStreet’s Haresh Menghani commented that “Gold hits a three-week top as dovish Fed bets offset U.S. government reopening optimism.” 【FXStreet】
Fed Policy Outlook: Markets are pricing in roughly a 60% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in December, as weak job data and soft inflation expectations weigh on the U.S. Dollar.
Labor Market Signs: Revelio Labs reported 9,100 job losses in October, with government payrolls down by 22,200, while the Chicago Fed noted a slight uptick in unemployment — reinforcing the view that economic momentum is fading.
Government Reopening: The U.S. Senate’s approval of a funding bill ended the longest government shutdown in history, sparking risk-on sentiment in equities. While this reduces safe-haven demand, the weaker macro backdrop keeps gold resilient.
Fed Commentary: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic acknowledged that the job market remains balanced but warned against easing too slowly, emphasizing limited inflation risk — a stance the market interprets as mildly dovish.
In short, while risk sentiment caps near-term upside, monetary easing bets and weak macro data continue to underpin gold’s medium-term strength.
🔑 Key Technical Levels
Resistance: $4,211 – $4,216
Support: $4,183 – $4,188
Psychological Level: $4,200
📌 Trade Summary
Gold remains bullish above $4,183, with the bias favouring a buy-on-dip approach. As long as support holds, the metal is likely to rebound toward $4,211–$4,216, following its breakout momentum from earlier this week. The underlying macro tone continues to favour buyers in the medium term.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading involves significant risk, and proper risk management is essential.
Gold - Short OpportunityWait for price to break the structure, take short with indicated sl and aim TP1, TP2 & TP3
XAUUSD - Breakout and Retest in ProgressGold has finally broken out of the descending trendline that has been acting as resistance for several sessions. The breakout came with strong bullish momentum, confirming renewed buyer interest after the prolonged consolidation phase.
At the moment, price is retesting both the broken trendline and a nearby intraday structure zone around $3,980 – $3,960, which could serve as a potential launchpad for another bullish leg. As long as this area holds, I’m anticipating a continuation toward $4,120 – $4,150, where a previous supply zone sits.
If price slips back below the ascending trendline, however, the setup could weaken and suggest a deeper retracement before any further upside.
Bias: Bullish
Timeframe: 1H
xauusd 4h🔹 Overall Outlook and Potential Price Movements
In the charts above, we have outlined the overall outlook and possible price movement paths.
As shown, each analysis highlights a key support or resistance zone near the current market price. The market’s reaction to these zones — whether a breakout or rejection — will likely determine the next direction of the price toward the specified levels.
⚠️ Important Note:
The purpose of these trading perspectives is to identify key upcoming price levels and assess potential market reactions. The provided analyses are not trading signals in any way.
✅ Recommendation for Use:
To make effective use of these analyses, it is advised to manually draw the marked zones on your chart. Then, on the 15-minute time frame, monitor the candlestick behavior and look for valid entry triggers before making any trading decisions.
XAUUSD (Gold) Daily Chart Analysis: Reaching Key Resistance/FVGKey Observations and Analysis
Recent Price Action: Gold has experienced a strong upward move, currently trading around $4,142.19. This rally has approached a critical area marked on the chart.
Key Resistance / Fair Value Gap (FVG): The price is entering a large shaded box labeled "D / FVG".
This box, spanning from approximately $4,160 to $4,240, represents a Daily Fair Value Gap (FVG) or a significant imbalance left by a prior sharp move down (a large bearish candle on November 21st-22nd).
In technical analysis, particularly concepts like Smart Money Concepts (SMC), an FVG acts as a high-probability target where the market often returns to fill the inefficiency. It also typically serves as a strong resistance zone.
Break of Structure (BOS): An area labeled "BOS" (Break of Structure) around the $4,020 level indicates a recent shift in market structure from potentially bearish/ranging to bullish on this timeframe, confirming the recent upward momentum.
Prior Low ('X'): A previous low labeled "X" around the $4,000 psychological level was initially respected before the rally commenced.
Expected Reaction: The chart includes a projected price path (the black arrow/zigzag line) suggesting the price may tap the FVG and then experience a reversal or sharp pullback from this key supply/imbalance zone.
Conclusion
The XAUUSD market is currently testing a significant Daily Fair Value Gap (FVG) / Resistance zone. Traders will be looking for a reaction around the $4,160 - $4,240 area to determine if the bullish momentum will pause, reverse, or break through to continue higher.
ANFIBO | XAUUSD - Effort to Breakout??? [11.10.2025]Hi guys, Anfibo's here!
XAUUSD Analysis – Daily Trading Plan
Overall Picture:
OANDA:XAUUSD is currently trading at the upper boundary of its sideways H1 channel, a key decision point where market sentiment is being tested. This resistance zone has repeatedly acted as a ceiling for price during the current consolidation phase. The question now is whether this level will once again trigger a technical pullback, or if bullish momentum—supported by ongoing geopolitical uncertainty—will be strong enough to deliver a clean breakout and start a new impulsive leg upward. Price action today will be crucial in determining whether gold continues ranging or transitions into a breakout phase.
Trading Plan for Today:
>>> BUY ZONE:
(1) ENTRY: 4040 - 4050
SL: 4030
TP: 4135 – 4150 - 4200
(2) ENTRY: 4070 - 4080 (small vol)
SL: 4065
TP: 4135 – 4150 - 4200
Risk Management:
- Stick to small-to-medium positions within the range; increase size only on confirmed breakouts.
- Keep stops tight, as sideways phases tend to trigger false signals.
- Maintain Risk:Reward ≥ 1:2 and avoid overtrading in choppy conditions.
- Reassess market bias once the H1 channel is decisively broken.
Conclusion:
Gold is sitting right at the “make-or-break” zone of its sideways channel. This area will tell us whether the market plans to reject and pull back, or gather enough momentum for a powerful breakout. As always, we remain flexible: trade the range until it breaks, and prepare to shift bias immediately if a confirmed breakout occurs.
HAVE A WONDERFUL NEW WEEK GUYS!
GOLD near Resistance ? What's next??#GOLD.. after a perfect move according to our last idea regarding gold and now market just reached near to our expected resistance area.
That is around 4115-22
Keep close and don't be lazy here.
Good luck
trade wisely
Gold on upswing as expectedAs discussed throughout my Friday's session commentary: 'My position: I have Traded Scalp orders mostly throughout yesterday’s session Buying #4,005.80 on multiple occasions towards #4,015.80 and #3,992.80 aggressively towards #4,000.80 benchmark. I have Bought #3,964.80 as well as I maintain Buying every dips strategy. I have accumulated enough Profits this week and will not Trade today, comfortably taking early weekend break.'
Update: I spot more and more Sellers trapped in attempt to re-Sell Gold, remember that Gold is on undisputed Buying trend and total Bullish domination. I maintain however my #4,100.80 first Target as I am Buying from #4,022.80 last night / Asian session opening as behind us is just on of the many 'Sellers trap' week believing Gold would dip towards #3,900.80 benchmark. I remain solid with my thesis that Gold delivered correction, formed Ultimate Bottom on #4,000.80 benchmark and will continue soaring from this point as #4,000.80 will remain floor for #5,100.80 benchmark test in extension.
Gold (XAU/USD) 3H Technical AnalysisCurrent Price: $4,091.70
Trend: Short-term bullish continuation
Chart Structure: Breakout from descending channel
🔍 Chart Insights
Descending Channel Breakout:
Gold has clearly broken above the yellow descending channel, confirming a bullish breakout from the previous downtrend.
Support Level Zone (Purple Area):
Support Range: $4,000 – $4,050
This zone was a strong resistance earlier and has now flipped into support after the breakout.
Price is expected to retest this area before continuing higher.
Bullish Structure & Retest Pattern:
The yellow zigzag line indicates a likely scenario where price may pull back slightly to the support zone before continuing the upward move toward the next resistance levels.
Target Levels (Resistance zones):
First Target: $4,120 – $4,160
Second Target: $4,200
Main Target (Highlighted): $4,381
This aligns with Fibonacci extension and prior structural highs.
📈 Bullish Scenario
If price holds above $4,050, the uptrend remains intact.
Momentum could push gold toward $4,200 → $4,380 in the next sessions.
Ideal entry area: near $4,050 – $4,070 (on successful retest).
📉 Bearish Scenario
A confirmed break below $4,000 would invalidate the bullish structure.
Downside targets: $3,940 → $3,880.
⚙️ Summary
Bias Entry Zone Support Resistance Target
Bullish $4,050–$4,070 $4,000 $4,200 / $4,380 $4,381 TFEX:GO1! TFEX:GD1! TFEX:GF1! TFEX:AEONTS1! TFEX:BANK1! TFEX:EURUSD1! TFEX:USD1! TFEX:USDJPY1! TFEX:S501! GPW:FW201! GPW:FPCO1! GPW:FPKN1! GPW:FW401! GPW:FUSD1!
Gold (XAUUSD) : Bulls Aiming for One More Push!Gold is climbing steadily, forming a corrective structure that could lead to one more short-term push up before potential reversal. If momentum slows near 4,040–4,060, expect sellers to reappear. Stay sharp, the next move could set the tone for November!
Disclosure: We are part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in our analysis.
Gold key Levels (3800-4100)These are the Gold key levels which I’ll be using for trading.
Here’s how I trade these levels:
- Close above a level → Buy setup
When a candle closes clearly above a level, it confirms bullish momentum and I look to enter long immediately after the close.
- Close below a level → Sell setup
A confirmed candle close below support signals bearish strength, and I enter short right after the close.
- Rejection from a level → Opposite trade
If price shows a strong rejection from a level, I trade in the opposite direction - rejection from resistance = sell setup, rejection from support = buy setup.
These levels works well for both day trading (using 1H candles) and scalping (using 15M or lower timeframes). It keeps trading simple, just reactions to market behaviour.
XAU/USD Bullish breakout buying strong watch levels🟡 GOLD TECHNICAL UPDATE 🟡
Timeframe: 1H
Breakout Entry: 3984
Gold is showing strong bullish momentum, confirming a resistance breakout around 3984. Price action structure supports continuation to the upside.
🎯 Technical Targets:
Target 1: 3998
Target 2: 4025
Target 3: 4040
⚠️ Always use proper risk management.
Wait for retest confirmation before entering — avoid chasing the move.
If you found this analysis helpful —
Like 👍 | Comment 💬 | Share 🔁 | Follow 📈
#Gold #XAUUSD #PriceAction #TechnicalAnalysis #Breakout #TradingSetup #RiskManagement
Gold Eyes 3,980 Support as Bulls Prepare for the Next Leg HigherHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring XAUUSD for a buying opportunity around 3,980 zone Gold is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 3,980 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
Gold 1H – Pullback Expected as USD Softens After Jobless Claims🟡 XAUUSD – Intraday Trading Plan | by Ryan_TitanTrader
📈 Market Context
Gold is trading within a corrective structure today as the U.S. dollar weakens slightly following higher-than-expected Jobless Claims.
Market sentiment remains mixed ahead of upcoming Fed speeches, which could provide clues about December policy expectations.
• A more hawkish tone could trigger a deeper downside move toward unfilled discount zones.
• Conversely, any dovish signals may push gold into a short-term liquidity grab before resuming its corrective trend.
Liquidity remains concentrated near the $4,030 area, where price may tap into resting buy-side liquidity before forming the next bearish leg.
🔎 Technical Analysis (1H / SMC Style)
• Structure: Current bias shows corrective bearish intent following recent ChoCH → BOS sequence on H1.
• Premium Zone: The 4030–4028 region aligns with an unmitigated H1 supply — ideal for continuation shorts.
• Liquidity Sweep: Price may reach 4030 to sweep early breakout buyers before confirming downside continuation.
• Discount Zone: Strong demand sits at 3932–3934, overlapping with previous bullish displacement and unmitigated demand.
🔴 Sell Setup
• Entry: 4030 – 4028
• Stop-Loss: 4040
• Take-Profit Targets: → 3980 → 3964 → 3934 (major demand zone)
🟢 Buy Setup (Countertrend Reaction)
• Entry: 3932 – 3934
• Stop-Loss: 3925
• Take-Profit Targets: → 3964→ 3995 → 4020
(Only valid if liquidity sweep and bullish reaction occur at the demand zone)
⚠️ Risk Management Notes
• Wait for M15 BOS/ChoCH confirmation at both zones to avoid premature entries.
• Avoid trading directly at the minor support around 3964 — it is not a valid SMC entry zone.
• Prioritize the sell setup; intraday bias remains corrective-bearish within a broader range.
• Secure partial profits at the first liquidity target and trail stops according to structure.
✅ Summary
Gold is likely to seek premium liquidity near 4030 before resuming its corrective move lower.
The 4030–4028 supply area offers a clean continuation-short entry, while 3932–3934 remains the strongest discount zone for reactive long setups.
Stay adaptable — the market maintains a mild bearish tone while waiting for further Fed guidance.
FOLLOW RYAN_TITANTRADER for daily SMC setups ⚡
Report 10/11/25Report summary
Next week’s Tesla shareholder vote on a record $1T performance package is more than governance theatre; it’s a referendum on whether public markets will underwrite a decade-long pivot from “auto + FSD” to “physical-AI” platforms, Robotaxi networks and the Optimus humanoid line, that currently contribute little revenue but anchor most of the equity story. In parallel, Big Tech’s AI capex divergence is reshaping cash-flow visibility and equity multiples: Meta is leaning into an asset-heavy model with a near-term margin drag, Alphabet and Microsoft offset depreciation with cloud monetization, and Apple is preserving an asset-light cash-return profile. Financials add a second macro thread: Bank of America is preparing a returns catch-up plan just as its legacy low-coupon securities book rolls off into higher yields, supporting 2026 net interest income. Policy tape risks eased modestly after a U.S.–China commercial détente that paused tariff escalation and rare-earth restrictions, yet the truce is partial and fragile. Meanwhile, the U.S. labor market shows erosion at the edges but retains a firm foundation; headline inflation near 3% has not morphed into the feared tariff-shock, with effective pass-through diluted by exemptions, corporate margins, and supply re-routing. China’s strategic crude stockpiling is quietly putting a floor under oil in the mid-60s even as Western sanctions keep reshuffling barrels. Finally, escalating AI compute demand crystalized in OpenAI’s multiyear cloud commitments, reinforcing the “cash now, depreciation later” story at the hyperscalers. Net-net, the risk mix argues for staying constructive on quality growth and cloud cash engines, tactically owning U.S. cyclicals into year-end liquidity, and hedging policy and single-name event risk around Tesla’s vote and the Supreme Court tariff case.
Event rundown and market read
The Tesla vote on Nov. 6 would lift Musk’s potential stake from 13% to ~25% contingent on extreme value and operating targets (including a decade path >$8.5T market cap), effectively hard-wiring strategic control over the robot platform build-out. Street frameworks increasingly ascribe minority value to legacy auto: one bank decomposition pegs 12% of equity value to vehicles, 17% to FSD subscriptions, ~45% to Robotaxi, and ~19% to Optimus. Bulls emphasize execution speed and “touching the physical world” advantages, bears note that FSD still requires active supervision and keeps Robotaxi “in park,” lengthening the cash runway to monetization. Big Tech earnings re-ranked AI spenders: Meta’s 2025 capex moved to the low-$70B area with depreciation set to more than double as a share of revenue over the decade; Alphabet lifted 2025 capex guidance into the low-$90Bs but pairs it with accelerating free cash flow and Cloud margins; Microsoft’s Azure growth near 40% and high-40s segment profitability continue to cushion capex; AWS remains the profit engine for Amazon even as depreciation trims margins short-term. In banks, BofA heads into an investor day with a targeted lift in ROTCE toward the high-teens, aided by reinvestment of its massive low-coupon securities book at today’s yields and ongoing buybacks. On policy, Washington and Beijing declared a limited truce, deferrals on rare-earth curbs, tariff hikes paused or partially rolled back, soybean buys resumed, fentanyl-related measures softened, taking the worst-case tail from markets without resolving core tech and export-control disputes. Labor data, while thinned by the shutdown, point to steady initial claims around ~220k and an easing but not collapsing hiring pulse; inflation at ~3% Y/Y remains above target but below spring fears, with tariff revenue and pass-through running lower than headline rates implied. China has been importing >11mb/d crude with an estimated 1.0–1.2mb/d going into storage, helping stabilize Brent near the mid-$60s despite sanctions churn. Finally, OpenAI’s additional ~$38B AWS commitment (on top of very large multicloud deals elsewhere) locks in multi-year compute demand that supports hyperscaler capacity build-outs.
Strategic implications
For equities, AI capex bifurcation now matters as much as AI narrative. Asset-heavy strategies (notably Meta) structurally raise depreciation and lower reported operating margins before the revenue flywheel fully arrives; models require higher confidence in multi-year usage to justify multiples. Asset-light strategies (Apple) preserve margin and cash returns but risk falling behind in platform infrastructure if they under-index spend. Alphabet and Microsoft sit in the sweet spot where every dollar of capex can be partially monetized immediately via Cloud, smoothing FCF even as D&A climbs. For Tesla, the vote outcome determines governance risk and the market’s tolerance for long-dated, binary optionality. If approved, it likely reduces overhang and keeps the “option value” premium alive; if it fails, the market will rapidly refocus valuation toward autos, FSD take-rates, and energy storage, compressing multiples. Macro-wise, the partial U.S.–China de-escalation, muted tariff pass-through, and still-firm labor base argue against a hard-landing baseline. China’s oil stockpiling should cap the downside in crude unless domestic growth stumbles; it also keeps refined-product margins and shipping spreads interesting. The Fed’s tone, policy modestly restrictive and each meeting “live”, supports a glide path of incremental cuts so long as the jobs picture softens at the margin and inflation drifts lower. Near-term U.S. fiscal frictions are real (e.g., SNAP partial payments during the shutdown), but markets are signaling they’re transitory policy noise, not systemic risk.
Asset-by-asset impact and positioning
S&P 500 / Dow Jones. Earnings leadership is broadening beyond the megacaps, but multiples remain rich, raising the penalty for misses. The U.S.–China cooling reduces tail risk on supply chains and semis policy without granting a durable peace. Into year-end, the combination of softer-than-feared inflation, resilient employment, and Fed optionality supports an upward bias. Prefer owning quality growth with cloud monetization, cash-rich platforms with operating leverage to AI demand, and select cyclicals tied to capex and freight normalization. Dow breadth should improve if banks deliver ROTCE uplift and industrials benefit from steadier input costs. Hedge event risk around Tesla’s vote with defined-risk put spreads if concentrated exposure exists.
Tesla equity. Into the vote, realized volatility will remain elevated. Approval likely sustains the “long-dated options on autonomy + humanoids” premium and keeps multiple discipline at bay near-term; a failure would trigger a rapid de-rating toward auto + FSD fundamentals, especially with post-credit EV demand normalizing after September’s buy-ahead and a soft October print expectation. Portfolio stance: keep single-name sizing disciplined, fund upside with call spreads rather than stock in new money, and balance with short-dated protective puts into and through the meeting if exposure is material.
Big Tech complex. Meta’s trajectory becomes a show-me path as depreciation ramps; treat drawdowns as tradable rather than structural until operating leverage from AI products is clearer. Alphabet and Microsoft remain core, with Cloud monetization cushioning capex and the OpenAI/AWS compute wave reinforcing secular demand across all hyperscalers. Apple’s asset-light cash-return story should keep a floor under the multiple while it times AI feature rollouts; treat it as a low-beta core within megacap baskets.
DXY / USDJPY. A tempered tariff path and incremental global risk-on tone are dollar-negative at the margin, though the policy-rate gap still supports the greenback on dips. If the Fed leans into a gradual easing glide path while the BoJ remains slow-walking normalization, USDJPY downside is limited absent a surprise in Japanese policy. Bias is for range trading with a mild USD drift lower on better risk appetite; favor funding selective EM and Asia ex-Japan exposures on DXY rallies rather than chasing dollar strength.
Crude oil (Brent/WTI). China’s 1.0–1.2mb/d stockbuild rate and spare storage capacity keep a firm floor in the mid-$60s even as sanctions reroute barrels and the IEA projects a temporary surplus. U.S. SPR refills remain slow, so the marginal bid is more Asian than American. With sanctions-related frictions raising transaction costs, prompt spreads can stay choppy. Trading stance: buy dips into the mid-$60s on Brent with conservative profit-taking near low-$70s unless evidence emerges of a meaningful Chinese stockbuild pause.
XAUUSD (Gold). With inflation near 3% and policy still modestly restrictive, gold’s macro bid now leans more on central-bank demand and geopolitical hedging than on immediate real-rate collapse. A softer dollar on trade de-escalation helps at the margin. Use weakness driven by risk-on equity squeezes to add tactically; fade spikes that are purely headline-driven absent rate support.
Risks and alternative paths
The U.S.–China thaw could reverse quickly if export-control or semiconductor policy hardens; chip-license outcomes and any signal on Blackwell-class access will be key. The Supreme Court’s tariff case is a binary headline risk that could re-price cross-border exposures and the dollar. On Tesla, governance uncertainty is material: a failed package would compress the “option on autonomy” premium, spill over into AI-beta sentiment, and test megacap resilience. Meta’s capex path risks a longer-than-expected depreciation overhang if product revenue lags; conversely, faster AI monetization could force a rerate higher. Energy risk skews are two-sided: accelerated Chinese stockbuilding or a shipping disruption lifts crude; a growth wobble in China or a sanctions workaround oversupply pulls it back below $60. U.S. fiscal and shutdown dynamics can interrupt data flow and reduce signal quality precisely when the Fed wants clarity.
What to do now possibly
Maintain core exposure to quality growth where AI capex has near-term monetization through cloud, add selectively to U.S. banks with credible ROTCE uplift into 2026, and keep a tactical long bias in cyclicals that benefit from steadier input costs and capex. For crude, buy the mid-$60s and harvest in the low-$70s while watching China inventory signals. In FX, sell DXY strength into event relief and keep USDJPY range strategies while the policy-rate gap persists. Around Tesla, reduce gross exposure into the vote if position size is large, use options to express upside while capping downside, and pre-define stop-losses for a non-approval scenario. Maintain gold as a portfolio hedge, adding on dips when dollar strength fades.
Gold: Is the bulls poised for a second wave of gains?The US government shutdown has lasted over 40 days, setting a new record for the longest government shutdown in history. The previous forced shutdown of 35 days was also a record broken by current President Trump.
Last Friday, the non-farm payroll data, which was supposed to be released, was also delayed. With no data available, the US entered a data "vacuum," and no one knows when the government will reopen.
During the previous three US government shutdowns, the US dollar index initially fell before rising. This time, however, the dollar index rebounded instead of falling, moving in tandem with gold. Gold prices have been oscillating below $4050, and today's opening saw an accelerated rise to challenge $4050.
I believe short-term volatility will continue, but downside potential is being compressed. Even if it cannot break the historical high of $4400 in the short term, there is a possibility of another upward surge during repeated fluctuations.
The 4-hour candlestick chart shows that the lows are constantly rising, challenging the $4050 resistance level. After a pullback at the end of last Friday's trading session, the overall trend is bullish. Today, the key focus is on a breakout above $4050. A breakout above this level followed by a pullback will likely lead to further upward movement.
Gold prices found support in the $4030-20 range after the pullback. A pullback to confirm the high from last Friday's rebound would be a good entry point. A break above $4050-60 would allow for further upward movement. If the Asian session rally continues into the European session, there will be another opportunity to go long before the US session.
Lingrid | GOLD Trend Continuation Pattern FormedOANDA:XAUUSD continues consolidating inside a broad descending channel after a failed attempt to break above 4050 resistance. Price action shows multiple rejections from the upper boundary while forming lower highs — a signal that sellers remain active. The focus now shifts toward the 3900 level as the next downside test, with a possible rebound near this zone before further direction develops. Momentum remains neutral-to-bearish unless bulls reclaim the 4060–4080 range.
⚠️ Risks:
Strong U.S. employment data this week could boost USD strength and extend downside pressure.
Rising Treasury yields may suppress gold’s short-term recovery potential.
Unexpected geopolitical tensions could trigger safe-haven inflows, distorting the bearish setup.
If this idea resonates with you or you have your own opinion, traders, hit the comments. I’m excited to read your thoughts!
GOLD – Range-Bound After Strong ReversalAfter a powerful reversal, XAUUSD is now consolidating within a well-defined range. Our primary bias is to buy from range lows back to range highs until structure breaks.
A clean breakout and retest on either side of this range will guide the next directional leg — with continuation expected once momentum confirms.
XAUUSD: Buyers Target $4,080 Resistance ZoneHello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current Gold setup.
Market Analysis
Gold (XAUUSD) has recently formed a constructive bullish structure after rebounding from the 3,930–3,960 Buyer Zone, which aligns with the lower boundary of the Upward Channel. This demand zone has consistently acted as a strong accumulation area, indicating that buyers are actively defending it. Prior to this rebound, price moved within a Downward Channel, where several fake breakouts occurred — showing that sellers were gradually losing momentum and failing to maintain downside pressure.
Currently, a breakout from the Downward Channel shifted the market tone, and since then, XAUUSD has started forming higher lows, signaling an early trend reversal. The price is now trading back inside a new Upward Channel, and the structure suggests buyers are preparing for a continuation move. At the moment, XAUUSD is approaching the mid-range of the channel, while the next major resistance sits near 4,130, which previously acted as a supply level and point of distribution.
My Scenario & Strategy
The current setup suggests that as long as price remains above the 3,930–3,960 demand region, the bullish setup remains intact. I expect Gold to continue moving gradually toward the 4,080–4,130 resistance zone in the short term. A confirmed breakout above 4,130 would likely signal strong bullish continuation, opening the way for a larger upward move toward 4,200 and beyond.
However, if XAUUSD breaks back below 3,930, the bullish structure would be invalidated, and price could revisit deeper support levels before attempting another upward leg. For now, I prefer to look for long entries on pullbacks within the channel, targeting a continuation toward the resistance levels mentioned above.
That's the setup I'm tracking. Thank you for your attention, and always manage your risk.
continue to accumulate - trading below 4000✍️ NOVA hello everyone, Let's comment on gold price next week from 11/10/2025 - 11/14/2025
⭐️GOLDEN INFORMATION:
Gold (XAU/USD) climbs 0.64% during Friday’s North American session, trading near $4,002 after rebounding from a daily low of $3,974. The ongoing US government shutdown and rising risk aversion keep equities under pressure, boosting demand for the safe-haven metal.
Gains in bullion are further supported by growing expectations of a December Fed rate cut. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan’s preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index for November dropped to its lowest level since June 2022, reflecting mounting concerns over the shutdown’s potential impact on the US economy.
⭐️Personal comments NOVA:
The market continues to be in a wait-and-see mode, accumulating as the US government remains shut down, and economic data from the US is delayed.
🔥 Technically:
Based on the resistance and support areas of the gold price according to the H4 frame, NOVA identifies the important key areas as follows:
Resistance: $4022, $4084
Support: $3961, $3917, $3885
🔥 NOTE:
Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well
- take the number of lots that match your capital
- Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account
- Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
- The winner is the one who sticks with the market the longest
