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Wall Street Weekly Outlook – Week 46 2025 (Nov 10 – Nov 14)📊💥 Wall Street Weekly Outlook – Week 46 2025 💥📊 + High Probability SMA/EMA Cross-Over Strategy! 💥 📅 November 10 – November 14, 2025 The new trading week is dominated by one crucial question: Are we heading toward a larger year-end correction in equities, or does the market shift back into risk-on mode? 🚀📉📈 In this video, I break down the most important market drivers for the weeks ahead. 🎥📊 Lean back and get a structured overview of which levels matter now, how hedge funds are adjusting their exposures, and which setups look most attractive from a mean-reversion perspective. 🧠💼 💡 Bonus Lessons: EMA/SMA cross-over strategy for equities, three key macro focus themes, and actionable mean-reversion setups. ⚡️ 📘 Topics covered in this weekly outlook: + SMA/EMA Cross-Over Strategy 🧠💼 Best, Meikel
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by WSICapital
14
GOLD Bull Trap Into Bear TrapGOLD has been outperforming almost every major asset class for the last 20 years to the surprise of many people including myself. I was only born in the 90's so I have yet to be aware of the power that comes from owning gold. That being said, It would be really nice to see the Gold correction mature here in order for us to grab liquidity which will ultimately bring us to much higher prices. Using some basic technical analysis, I will be watching the 618 retracement zone for a short trade entry with a stop above the ATH. Although I am not as interested in a large size short position if it is provided, I would be very interested in expanding my portfolio with some Gold holdings if my targets are hit, going into 2026. I believe this will be the final 5th wave of the overall Elliot Wave count that begin in 2015 when the new Gold rally had begun. Lets see where the market decides to move.
TVC:GOLD
by afurs1
1
Gold Bulls Awaken, Can It Hold Above 4300? Strategy Update Gold continued its upward breakout from its consolidation range in the latter half of the previous trading session, further opening up upward potential. We've previously mentioned that the short-term consolidation in gold was a build-up for an upward breakout. Today, we should continue to focus on effective long positions following the trend, observing the extent of the bullish continuation. While bullish, avoid chasing the price higher. During the Asian session, wait for a pullback to key support levels before entering effective long positions. Since the gold price has already broken out, this indicates further upward potential. During the pullback, long positions should continue to be established, following the trend. Short-term support is at 4185-75, where small, incremental long positions can be entered. Gold's 4160-50 level has transformed from resistance to support, making it another good entry point for long positions. Gold remains bullish in the short term. Current price action suggests resistance around 4210-20, with strong resistance around 4245-55. This is a suggested strategy for the Asian session, and it's time-sensitive. If the Asian session breaks through, the target for the European and American sessions is 4250. Continue to expect further upward movement towards 4300; otherwise, expect range-bound trading. Market Review: On the previous trading day, when the price pulled back to around 4100, I signaled to enter long positions near the double bottom pattern formed at 4100, ultimately resulting in profit. A total of 5 trades were made on the previous trading day, including both long and short positions, all of which were profitable. You can check previous posts to verify this. Currently, the price is fluctuating within a small range of 4185-4205; we will look for opportunities to buy. Markets don't always move in a sideways pattern; there will always be breakouts. These breakouts are more volatile and offer more opportunities, but they also carry higher risks. I always remind investors to prioritize risk management and carefully plan their positions. I focus solely on real trading and a clear rhythm. There are no perpetual bull or bear markets, only the right direction in the present. Master the rhythm and follow the trend. This is the essence of trading. Currently, you must seize every opportunity to buy on pullbacks. If you're struggling to execute trades precisely, try my method: test the market with a small position first, then add to your position on pullbacks. This way, you won't miss any opportunities. If you're truly unsure when, where, and how to trade, follow me and strictly adhere to my signals. This will make it easier to recover losses or double your profits!
TVC:GOLDLong
by FIGONRXS
Gold's bullish trend continues!From a technical perspective, the daily chart's upward movement has completed its bullish momentum, with multiple consecutive positive days indicating strong upward potential. The upper resistance level is around 4300. The 4-hour chart's single-line moving average support is around 4170/4160. Therefore, today's strategy should focus on effective long positions to observe the potential for further upward movement. Avoid chasing the price higher; wait for a pullback to key support levels during the Asian and European sessions before entering long positions, targeting 4250 and 4300 during the US and European sessions. However, today is Thursday, which could be a turning point for the week. If the price fails to break above 4300 during the US session, a short position can be considered, observing the pullback and assessing its extent. Key resistance levels to watch are 4250-4275, while key support levels are 4150-4170. Follow the trend closely, manage your position size and stop-loss orders carefully, and never hold losing positions. Specific entry and exit points will be based on real-time market conditions. Welcome to discuss real-time market updates. Short Strategy: Sell gold in batches around 4260-4265, with a target of 4200-4190, and a further target of 4170 if it breaks through. Long Strategy: Sell gold on a pullback to 4175-4180, with a target of 4230-4250, and a further target of 4265 if it breaks through. From the current perspective, gold is in a dual favorable environment of macroeconomics and technicals. Expectations of a Fed rate cut and rising US fiscal risks are weakening the dollar, further solidifying the medium-term bullish structure for gold. However, with the reopening of the US government and a recovery in risk appetite, short-term gold prices may experience volatile pullbacks. With less than a month until the Fed's monetary policy decision on December 10th, CME Group's probability model shows the market still expects a 0.25% rate cut, bringing the benchmark interest rate down from 4.00% to 3.75%. While the probability of a rate cut exceeded 90% a month ago, it has now eased to 65%, still reflecting strong market expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve at its next meeting before the end of the year. This situation has further enhanced gold's attractiveness relative to US Treasuries—whose yields have fallen back to the 4.00% range. As expectations of rate cuts drive bond yields lower, gold has once again become a favored safe-haven asset, benefiting investors' demand for stability and asset diversification. Although gold does not generate interest income, it tends to perform strongly when bond yields fall, as investors often shift funds from fixed-income markets to precious metals. At the same time, falling bond yields weaken the demand for dollars needed to buy bonds, putting pressure on the dollar. This is reflected in the recent drop of the dollar index below the 100 mark, indicating that the dollar's weakness against other currencies will continue. A weaker dollar allows international buyers to purchase gold at lower costs, not only improving gold's accessibility but also stimulating global demand. This dynamic mechanism is a key factor in the recent sustained buying support for gold.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by VivianSandro
2
GOLD HTF — Is the Buying Climax reach and the BIG short coming??After a +53% yearly gain and a 10% September candle, we might finally be seeing the start of a two-month distribution phase, smart money taking profit before the end of the year and preparing for re-accumulation lower for next year. Wyckoff View (Daily): Possible Buying Climax (BC) followed by Automatic Reaction (AR) and Secondary Test (ST). If confirmed, the markdown could target the $3,440 zone, where major resistance from earlier structure awaits a retest. Until proven otherwise, the macro trend is still bullish, but momentum exhaustion and vertical price action often precede deeper retracements. Trading Plan: Stay small, stay precise. Scalping on M1–M5 to extract 50–100 pips per day is the play while the big money decides the next leg. We don’t predict, we react. Trade like the Casino, not the hopeful gambler. Touch grass, protect peace, stay grateful. Be safe, and God bless you all.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDShort
by Medintrade
4
XAU/USD – Make-or-Break Zone Sharp 11% Drop from Record HighBeen asked to analysis GOLD on current market structure On October 20, 2025, Gold (XAU/USD) recorded a new all-time high at $4,383, marking a historic peak in the current macro cycle. Since then, the metal has retraced sharply by nearly 11%, bringing price action back into a critical decision zone — a true make-or-break level. This area will define the next major directional leg. A strong bounce from current support could revalidate the long-term bullish structure and initiate another run toward ATH, while a breakdown below this zone may confirm a deeper correction before the next accumulation phase.
TVC:GOLD
by Captain-MAO
Fed Rate-Cut Outlook Shifts — Gold Faces New Challenges AgainGold ultimately formed a typical head and shoulders pattern, with prices falling as expected to the 4150-4140 range and currently in a rebound phase. The main resistance remains concentrated in the shoulder area at 4189/4210, followed by the 4223 level. If the current rebound lacks strength, prices will likely fall back to the 4150-4140 / 4123-4118 range to attract new bullish funds and accumulate strength before attempting another upward move. If it reaches around 4120, the first resistance level to consider is the 4145-4158 area. On the 1-hour chart, this pullback touched the MA60 support, and the overall bullish structure remains intact. The selling pressure around 4250 has also been largely released. As long as the rebound can stabilize above the MA20 (4202), and with supportive news, there is still a chance to test the 4300 area, and a break above the previous high of 4381 is not out of the question. Note: If subsequent news does not support the bulls, it may trigger the scenario I mentioned earlier (a downward retracement to fill the gap below 4010). On the daily chart, the structure remains bullish, with prices supported by the MA5. Key support is located at the MA30 (around 4086), and the bullish trend is currently undamaged. Note: The psychological level of 4300 presents resistance. Whether approaching or breaking through, selling pressure is inevitable. Therefore, if the price successfully breaks through and rises above 4270, avoid blindly chasing the price, as this could lead to a passive position.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by China_MsWang
Re Entry sellSorry guys due to some busy shedule i could not share 1st sell and enjoy above 1000pips sell some booked but some still hold for final tp 4007 and now there is re entry sell so you can enter. in previous sell we got sl but holding buy hit tp. dont worry about sl. sl is compulsory part of forex markete. they whose says we can not take sl they tells lie. when you will follow proper money managment then 200pips sl is not a big problem because we always get big tps like 400,600,800,1000 pips
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FaisalKhanJoyia
1
The mistake that kept me broke for 2 years!Hey @TradingView Community, I want to tell you something personal... For two years, I was stuck. I kept losing trades and I couldn’t figure out why. It wasn’t because I didn’t work hard. It wasn’t because I didn’t study the charts. It was because I was following a trading style that looked smart on paper but failed in real life. Every week, I waited for that ONE “perfect” setup. I told myself, “This is how real traders do it.” But most weeks, nothing came. And when I finally saw something, I was either late or scared to take it. Then came the worst part. After waiting for days and missing good trades, I got frustrated. So I started forcing trades just to feel like I was doing something. And of course, I lost even more. It became a loop: Waiting → Missing → FOMO → Losing. Even more? I traded based on emotions and started to add to losing positions! And of course, more losses. It was too complicated, too slow, and not made for real traders like us. And of course, everything was built on a foundation of simple to advanced chart patterns and Smart Money Concepts (SMC), candlestick patterns, Elliott waves... I’ve experimented with nearly every well-known form of technical analysis you can think of. After thousands of hours of studying and backtesting the charts, we discovered a powerful and consistent edge rooted in Wave Analysis. From our research and findings, we developed our own unique system, the We Trade Waves Wave Analysis Concept. You can see the proven results on our website. But we also realized that analysis is only one part of the equation, the most important part is building the right mindset and finding your own balance, all while following a proven trading system like the one we’ve built and refined today. We created a trading system you can follow in a simple and calm way. You need a working trading system that takes about 15 to 30 minutes a day, and it actually works. The system that helped me get my time, focus, and money back. It's the same We Trade Waves system we are teaching to We Trade Waves members now. And don't forget WTW 4 Golden rules! 1) Do not jump in 2) Do not over risk/trade 3) Do not trade without Stop Loss 4) Never ever add to a losing position! Take with care, Alain M(Coach) WTW Team TVC:GOLD NYSE:DOW SP:SPX NASDAQ:NDX
FX:XAUUSD
by WeTradeWAVES
4
Latest Direction After Gold Price Surge News： On Thursday (November 13) in Asian trading, spot gold remained relatively stable after yesterday's surge, currently trading around $4,200 per ounce. On Wednesday evening local time, US President Trump signed a temporary funding bill, ending the longest government shutdown in US history. The bill will provide continued funding for the federal government, ensuring most government agencies have operating funds until January 30, 2026. The end of the US government shutdown means that official economic data will resume being released, paving the way for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December. Technical aspects： On the daily chart, after stabilizing last week, gold has continued its rebound this week, showing short-term strength. Support levels to watch are around $4210, near Wednesday's high, and then the intraday low of $4185. Resistance levels to watch are the intraday high around $4240; a break above this level would indicate further strength, with the upside target at the psychological level of $4300, which also coincides with the upper Bollinger Band on the daily chart. The 5-day moving average is trending upwards in a golden cross, the MACD indicator has formed a golden cross, and the KDJ and RSI indicators are also trending upwards in a golden cross, suggesting short-term technical indicators indicate a potential for further gold price rebound. Trading strategy: Buy:4190-4185, SL: 4175, TP: 4250-4275
TVC:GOLDLong
by TheodoreSilas
1
The bulls are back, and going long remains the main theme.#XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD Although the beginning of the week didn't offer a pullback entry opportunity, gold rallied immediately after the open, breaking through 4030 as expected and continuing its upward trend, officially signaling the return of the bulls to the market. From the hourly chart, gold broke through the resistance of the upward channel at 4055 and continued to fluctuate upwards, indicating that the bullish momentum remains strong in the short term. However, attention should be paid to the resistance at 4080-4100 from the weekly MA5 moving average and the daily middle line, and be wary of a possible pullback after a surge. Therefore, in the short term, avoid blindly chasing the rally, patiently waiting for a pullback to buy remains our main trading strategy. The first support level to watch is the 4055-4045 level, a previous resistance turning point, followed by the important support at 4030-4020. Therefore, if gold prices fall back after encountering resistance during the European session, we can consider going long on gold in batches based on the strength of the pullback.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Miracle-Walker_GC
Lingrid | GOLD Possible False Breakout - Correction Setup OANDA:XAUUSD has extended its rally after a clean breakout from the range zone, now testing a confluence area near 4,155 within the resistance zone. The structure forms a steep upward channel with a potential short-term exhaustion pattern near the upper boundary. If price fails to sustain above 4,150, a corrective pullback toward 4,065–4,000 could unfold. The broader momentum remains bullish but stretched, suggesting a possible pause before continuation. ⚠️ Risks: A breakout above 4,150 could accelerate momentum toward 4,220. Softer U.S. inflation data may weaken USD and fuel further gold demand. Rising geopolitical tensions could boost safe-haven inflows, invalidating pullback scenarios. If this idea resonates with you or you have your own opinion, traders, hit the comments. I’m excited to read your thoughts!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Lingrid
28
Gold Price Outlook – Trade Setup (XAU/USD)📊 Technical Structure FOREXCOM:XAUUSD Gold (XAU/USD) has regained upward momentum, bouncing back above $4,200 after briefly pulling back from a three-week high. The metal remains within a broad bullish structure, supported by risk-off sentiment and a softer USD. The Resistance Zone lies between $4,207–$4,214, which coincides with recent swing highs. The Support Zone is established around $4,166–$4,174, representing the demand base from earlier this week. A short-term pullback toward the support zone could offer a buy-on-dip opportunity, with price likely to retest the $4,210 resistance area if momentum holds. 🎯 Trade Setup Idea: Buy on retracement near support, targeting a retest of $4,210 resistance. Entry: $4,167 – $4,174 Stop Loss: $4,166 Take Profit 1: $4,207 Take Profit 2: $4,214 Risk–Reward Ratio: ≈ 1 : 4.88 If gold breaks below $4,165, the bullish bias would weaken, potentially opening room for deeper correction toward $4,150. 🌐 Macro Background Gold climbed above $4,200 on Friday amid renewed risk aversion and a weaker U.S. Dollar, as markets digest ongoing fallout from the U.S. government shutdown and signs of slowing growth. FXStreet’s Haresh Menghani noted that “Gold retakes $4,200 as USD weakens on economic concerns and a risk-off mood boosts demand.” 【FXStreet】 Economic Concerns: Investors remain worried that the prolonged U.S. government closure shaved 1.5–2.0% off quarterly GDP growth, reinforcing expectations of weaker economic activity ahead. USD Under Pressure: The U.S. Dollar trades near a two-week low, as markets anticipate softer data once official reports resume. Fed Rate-Cut Bets: While some Fed officials, including Susan Collins and Neel Kashkari, warned against hasty easing, the CME FedWatch Tool still shows a 50% chance of a 25bp rate cut in December, and 75% odds for January. Data Delays: A senior White House official confirmed that key October data (employment and inflation) might not be released, adding uncertainty to policy projections. Risk Sentiment: Weaker equities and global risk aversion continue to support gold as investors seek safety amid limited U.S. macro visibility. Despite the reduced odds of an immediate December cut, the medium-term narrative remains gold-positive, with the Fed leaning toward eventual easing once data returns. 🔑 Key Technical Levels Resistance: $4,207 – $4,214 Support: $4,167 – $4,174 Psychological Level: $4,200 📌 Trade Summary Gold’s short-term structure favours buying dips toward $4,167–$4,174, supported by risk-off sentiment and a fragile U.S. Dollar. As long as price stays above $4,165, the bullish outlook remains valid with potential retest of the $4,207 area. However, uncertainty around delayed U.S. data may keep volatility elevated into next week. ⚠️ Disclaimer This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading involves significant risk, and proper risk management is essential.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by ATFX_Global
Gold Traders Beware | Sell the Trap, Buy the Expansion💥 GOLD: Smart Money is setting the trap! 💰 Expect a dip to 🟩 3800 before the $5,100 breakout. Don’t chase — position smart. 🚀 Gold has been unstoppable — printing higher highs and leaving emotional traders behind. But now… the Smart Money trap is loading ⚠️ Price has tapped into the 🟥 4160–4220 premium zone , where liquidity is stacked and institutions quietly prepare their next move. Before the massive bullish rally to $5,100+ , expect one last shakeou t — a dip engineered to flush retail longs and reload institutional buys near 🟩 3880–3800. The crowd will panic. The pros will accumulate. Stay patient, trade smart. 🧠✨ 📊 Smart Money Breakdown: 🧠 Institutional Playbook: Liquidity resting above recent highs 🧲 🟥 4160–4220 = Smart Money Distribution Zone 🟩 3880–3800 = Discount Reaccumulation Zone Expect a fake-out drop → explosive bullish reversal 💡 Trade Plan: 🔻 Sell Zone: 🟥 4,161 – 4,219 🎯 Targets: 🟩 3,880 – 3,800 (ideal long re-entry area) 🚀 Ultimate Target: $5,100+ (once discount OB holds) 🟨 Price Action Confluences: Liquidity sweep above structure highs 🩸 Fair Value Gap + Order Block alignment ⚙️ Higher-timeframe BOS still intact 💪 Elliott-style wave 2 correction before next expansion 🌊 🧭 Bias Overview: 🟥 Short-term: Controlled bearish correction 🟩 Mid-term: Explosive bullish continuation → $5,100+ 💭 Mindset: Trade the trap — not the emotion . ⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Always apply your own analysis and risk management before trading. 💡 🔥 Follow for Smart Money + Price Action setups the big banks don’t share! 💬 Comment below — are you selling the trap or waiting to buy the dip? ⚡ Let’s ride the Gold move together — with precision, not emotion. #Gold #XAUUSD #SmartMoneyConcepts #PriceAction #LiquiditySweep #OrderBlock #SwingTrading #Commodities #GoldAnalysis #FVG #TradingView #InstitutionalTrading #MarketStructure #GoldForecast #Forex
TVC:GOLDShort
by fibcos
Gold’s Calm Before the Storm – Triangle Ending Soon!Over the past 10 days , many traders—especially those working on 15-minute and higher timeframes—might have found Gold a bit tedious as it's been somewhat range-bound. Right now, Gold ( OANDA:XAUUSD ) is sitting in a Support zone($4,004 – $3,895) and is also relatively close to a Resistance zone($4,046 – $4,004) . From a Classical Technical Analysis standpoint on the 1-hour timeframe, it looks like gold has formed a Symmetrical Triangle and it's currently moving near the upper line of this triangle. Additionally, there's a small ascending channel that has formed over the last couple of days, which is something to keep in mind. In terms of Elliott Wave theory, Gold might be forming a Contracting Triangle that could be completed by the time it finishes wave E. I expect that Gold may decline at least to the lower line of the symmetrical triangle in the coming hours. If it breaks that lower line , we might see further downside and a clearer direction for gold’s main movement. Otherwise, it could bounce again. Second Target: $3,913 Stop Loss(SL): $4,04(Worst) Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree. Gold Analyze (XAUUSD), 1-hour time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy; this is just my idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅ ' like ' ✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by pejman_zwin
9
XAU/USD — Bullish Continuation Setup (4H Chart)Gold (XAU/USD) has been consolidating near US $4,000 after rallying strongly to new highs above US $4,300 earlier this quarter. Price has since formed a falling wedge / triangle pattern, signaling potential bullish continuation if buyers regain control. Technical Outlook Price is compressing between converging trendlines, with clear zones marked on the chart. Buy confirmation: a breakout and close above 4,020–4,040 would signal bullish momentum. If confirmed, price could extend toward 4,120–4,180, followed by 4,250+. Buy invalidation: a breakdown below 3,940 would negate the bullish setup and expose the 3,900–3,860 support zone. The overall structure remains constructive — a breakout above resistance would complete the wedge and potentially resume the broader uptrend channel. Fundamental View (November 2025) Fed policy: The Federal Reserve held rates steady in October but hinted at rate cuts in early 2026, a dovish tilt that supports gold. Macro conditions: U.S. inflation (~3.2%) remains sticky, and bond yields are easing — reducing pressure on non-yielding assets like gold. Safe-haven demand: Continued geopolitical tension in the Middle East and strong central-bank purchases (China, India, Turkey) add structural support. Short-term risk: A brief U.S. dollar rebound may cause intraday volatility, but sentiment remains broadly bullish. Trading Plan Bias: Short-term bullish continuation Breakout trigger: Above 4,020–4,040 (confirmed breakout) Targets: ‣ TP1: 4,120–4,150 ‣ TP2: 4,180–4,250 Invalidation: Below 3,940
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by NubisTrader
Gold continuation patternHere's exactly my idea, confirm it before you enter a trade! daily and 3H timeframe gaps. recommended to hit that gap only before it retraces back to 3600-3700 or above zone again. Wait for that entry buy zone again. Or if you want to short this idea. look on 3H swept. Chart is on daily. we might see 4180-4200, that's my short zone! If you're having a good thoughts comment yours. this is a free community. Been dealing this moves. It's my base fibonacci level 1.61 above/retrace! before the price continues higher. Follow for more. Watch only my zones entry buy/sell , Long/short! choose wisely. To invest in my idea direct/private me here! with 70-30 split profit!
TVC:GOLD
by D1GITALTRADES
2
Fundamental analysis of Gold (XAU/USD)GOLD Here’s a fundamental analysis of Gold (XAU/USD) 1. Interest Rates & Real Yields One of the biggest drivers of gold is real interest rates (nominal interest rates minus inflation). When real yields are low or negative, gold becomes more attractive since it carries no coupon. In recent weeks, growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates have boosted gold’s appeal. For example, analysts see a high probability of a Fed rate cut in December. Also, as long-term inflation remains stubborn, the “opportunity cost” of holding gold (rather than interest-earning assets) is lower, which favours gold. --- 2. U.S. Dollar Strength & Currency Effects Gold is priced in U.S. dollars, so a weaker dollar typically supports higher gold prices (foreign buyers get more gold for their money). Recently the dollar has shown some weakness, which helps gold. Conversely, if the dollar strengthens sharply (for example because of safe-haven flows into USD or a surprise strong US economy), that could temper gold’s upside. --- 3. Central Bank & Institutional Demand Central banks around the world continue to buy gold as part of reserve diversification and as a hedge against currency risk. This structural demand supports gold’s medium- and long-term fundamentals. At the same time, investment flows (via ETFs, etc.) are rising, showing that institutional investors are leaning into gold. This adds to upward pressure. --- 4. Geopolitical & Macro Risk Premium Gold is still viewed as a “safe-haven” asset. Elevated geopolitical risks, recession fears, or inflation shocks tend to push investors into gold. Reports suggest the current market environment — with elevated macro risks — favours gold’s role as a hedge. So, if new shocks (trade, geopolitics, monetary policy) emerge, they could accelerate the move upward. --- 5. Supply, Demand & Inflation Dynamics While gold supply (mining + recycling) is relatively stable, demand from investment and central banks is increasing — tightening the balance somewhat. Meanwhile inflation remains elevated in many economies, which supports gold’s appeal as a store of value. --- 6. Key Fundamental Takeaways (Bullish Scenario) If the Fed begins cutting rates, real yields fall → gold rises. If the dollar weakens further, that boosts gold’s dollar-price. If central banks amplify gold purchases and investment flows remain strong, that structural demand underpins prices. If geopolitical or macro risks increase, gold benefits from the safe-haven bid. Together, these suggest a favourable environment for gold to continue its up-trend. --- 7. Key Risks / What Could Go Wrong If inflation falls rapidly and the Fed holds firm or even raises rates, real yields may rise → that would pressure gold. If the dollar strengthens significantly (e.g., due to strong US growth or safe-haven demand), gold could face headwinds. A sudden improvement in global risk appetite might shift flow away from safe assets like gold. Supply-side overshoot or substitution into other assets could dampen inflows.
TVC:GOLDLong
by John_Mampane
1