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XAUUSD Bearish OutlookGold has faced strong selling pressure near the all-time high just below the $4,400 psychological level. Key support sits around $4,050–$4,000, and a break below could trigger a sharper correction toward $3,500. On the macro side, potential progress in U.S.–China trade talks and resolution of the U.S. government shutdown could boost market optimism and reduce safe-haven demand for gold. Meanwhile, markets remain heavily positioned for FOMC rate cuts — any disappointment or less-dovish tone from the Fed could unwind those bets, adding further downside pressure.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by jacquesnortje
The gold-driven logic behind the US attack on VenezuelaThe "black swan" shock in the global crude oil market: Venezuela, as an important member of OPEC, produces 1.2 million barrels of oil per day (accounting for 1.3% of global crude oil supply), and controls 18% of the world's proven oil reserves. If the US military strike causes the paralysis of its oil facilities (such as the Maracaibo Lake oil field and the Caribbean Sea ports being bombed), global crude oil supply will instantly decrease by 1.2 million barrels per day. Coupled with the fact that the situation in the Middle East has not yet eased, the Brent crude oil price may soar from the current $85 per barrel to $120-130 per barrel, reaching a new high since 2022. The signal of restarting the inflation spiral: For every $10 increase in crude oil price per barrel, it will push up the US core CPI by 0.3-0.4 percentage points. If the oil price exceeds $120, the US CPI may return to above 4% in December 2025. This will completely reverse the market's expectation of "inflation moderation", and the demand for gold as an "inflation-resistant hard asset" will experience an explosive growth - during the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict, the inflation concerns triggered by the oil price increase led to a 5.8% weekly increase in gold prices. This scenario shock is even stronger, with a weekly increase of over 7%. Next week's trading strategy and analysis buy：4000-4010 tp:4025-4035-4100 sl:3995
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Ryan_Lewis1
Will gold fall below 3900 again on October 29? Current Market Characterization: Volatile with a bearish bias. Gold prices have broken below the key psychological level of $4,000, indicating short-term technical weakness. The market is currently caught between long-term bullish fundamentals and short-term factors such as easing geopolitical risks and improved risk appetite. Ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, volatile and range-bound trading is likely to persist. I. Core Market Logic Short-Term Bearish Factors: Technical Selling Pressure: Last week’s significant sell-off has led to further weakness in technical indicators. Improved Risk Appetite: Signs of easing geopolitical tensions (e.g., trade negotiations) have reduced gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. Break of Key Support: The loss of the $4,000 level (coinciding with the long-term uptrend line) has intensified bearish sentiment. Medium- to Long-Term Supporting Factors: Fed Rate Cut Expectations: The market has almost fully priced in a 25-basis-point rate cut in October, with another cut expected in December. This limits the downside for gold prices in the long run. II. Key Price Levels Bullish Defense Line: $4,020 If gold fails to reclaim and stabilize above this level, the short-term bearish trend is likely to continue. Core Resistance Zone: $3,970 - $3,990 This area, formed by the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, serves as a strong short-term resistance zone and an ideal entry point for short positions. Support Zone: $3,880 - $3,890 This is the current near-term key support band. If gold stabilizes here, a technical rebound may occur. Breakdown Target: If the $3,880 - $3,890 support band is decisively broken, bears will likely test lower support levels. III. Intraday Trading Strategy Primary Approach: Prefer selling on rallies, with light long positions at key support levels as a secondary strategy. Short Strategy (Primary): Entry Timing: Wait for gold to rebound to the $3,970 - $3,990 resistance zone and show signs of rejection before entering short positions. Profit Target: Initial target at the $3,900 - $3,910 support band. Secondary target at $3,870 - $3,880. Stop Loss: Place above $4,000. Long Strategy (Secondary): Entry Timing: If gold retraces to the $3,880 - $3,890 support band and shows signs of stabilization or reversal on shorter timeframes (e.g., 1-hour/4-hour charts), consider entering light long positions. Profit Target: Aim for $3,950 - $3,970. Stop Loss: Place below $3,870. IV. Trading Discipline and Risk Warnings Follow the Trend: As long as the price remains below $4,020, the overall strategy should favor selling on rallies rather than attempting to buy the dip against the trend. Exercise Patience: Only execute trades when prices approach key resistance or support levels. Avoid impulsive trading in intermediate ranges and refrain from chasing the market. Strict Risk Management: Market sensitivity is heightened ahead of the Fed meeting. Always adhere to stop-loss orders to mitigate risks from unexpected fluctuations.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Golden_Opportunities
XAUUSD: Market Analysis and Strategy for October 30Gold Technical Analysis: Daily chart resistance: 4090, support: 3840. 4-hour chart resistance: 4050, support: 3890. 1-hour chart resistance: 4030, support: 3916. Technical Analysis: Gold prices rebounded technically after falling nearly 5% over four consecutive trading days. The market faced short-term headwinds due to Powell downplaying the possibility of a December rate cut; however, widening divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate decisions have introduced new uncertainty to the market. Meanwhile, the trade easing agreement reached between the US and China has weakened safe-haven demand. The daily chart shows a stepped decline, with four consecutive days of losses up to the previous trading day, and the moving average system has formed a death cross. After the European market opened today, prices rebounded rapidly. Short-term resistance levels to watch are 4010 and 4030. If gold can hold above 4010 and remain firmly above 4000, it will likely attract previous buying interest and resume its long-term upward trend. Conversely, if gold fails to recover and hold above 4000, selling on rallies is advisable. Looking at the 1-hour chart, the moving averages have formed a golden cross, and the MACD/KDJ indicators are providing upward momentum. In the short term, focus on the continuation of the upward trend, paying particular attention to yesterday's rebound high of 4006 and the previous trading day's rebound high around 4030. Trading Strategy: SELL: 4050~4056 near BUY: 3966~3960 near More Analysis →
TVC:GOLDLong
by ActuaryJ
Gold surges strongly after Fed decision – eyes on 4000+ breakout1. Market Movements After the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.25% and signaled a potential end to quantitative tightening (QT), gold extended its strong upward momentum. Institutional and ETF buying continues to drive prices higher, with gold now testing the key psychological level at $4000/oz. 2. Technical Analysis • Near-term Support: $3960 – $3970 • Deeper Support: $3935 – $3940 (pre-Fed accumulation zone & H4 EMA50) • Immediate Resistance: $3988 – $4000 • Extended Resistance: $4025 – $4040 (mid-October technical high) • Momentum: Both EMA20 and EMA50 on H1 and H4 are sloping upward, confirming strong bullish momentum. RSI remains elevated (70–75), signaling overbought but still strong trend conditions. • Volume: Continues to rise steadily, showing sustained institutional inflows. However, short-term correction risks remain near $4000 due to overextension. 3. Outlook The overall trend remains bullish, but caution is advised as gold approaches the $4000–$4040 resistance zone — a potential area of strong profit-taking. If gold fails to break above $4040 decisively, a short-term pullback toward $3970 or $3940 is likely. 4. Suggested Trading Plan 🔺 BUY XAU/USD Entry: $3925 – $3928 🎯 TP: 40 / 80 / 200 pips 🛑 SL: $3922 🔻 SELL XAU/USD Entry: $4037 – $4040 🎯 TP: 40 / 80 / 200 pips 🛑 SL: $4043
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Mian-FXSignals
XAUUSD ForecastGold has broken out of the descending wedge pattern, signalling a potential bullish reversal. Price is currently retesting the breakout zone near the 3,980–4,000 support area. A successful bounce from this level could trigger an upward move toward the first target at 4,045 and the second target around 4,100. Holding above the retest zone will confirm bullish momentum continuation. "Thank you for your support! If you found this idea valuable or learned something new, please consider liking and leaving a comment. I’d really appreciate hearing your feedback and thoughts
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Pintu_sahu01
XAUUSD: Gold Battles the Key 4000 ZoneXAUUSD: Gold Battles the Key 4000 Zone Hey everyone! Let's dive into Gold (XAUUSD) on the 4-hour chart, where we've seen some dramatic moves recently. What We've Seen: Gold made a strong run earlier in the month, but was firmly rejected twice at the 4400 mark, forming a clear "Double Top" pattern (marked with red circles). This led to a significant pullback, pushing price down through several support levels. Currently, Gold has found some footing after hitting a low and is now attempting to recover. The Current Battleground: 4000 Key Zone Price is currently retesting the crucial 4000 Key Zone (highlighted in blue). This level acted as support previously, was broken, and is now being challenged again. The immediate task for buyers is to "Observe the price action if it can break the recent swing high" (marked with the purple circle) just below 4000, which has been acting as immediate resistance. Scenario 1: Bullish Reclaim & Push Higher (If 4000 Holds Strong) If Gold can successfully reclaim and hold above this 4000 Key Zone, it would be a strong bullish signal. This could open the door for: A push towards the 4150 to 4250 1st Resistance zone, where sellers might step in again. A more sustained recovery attempt, potentially aiming higher if that resistance is overcome. Scenario 2: Rejection & Further Downside (If 4000 Proves Too Strong) However, if the 4000 Key Zone acts as strong resistance and Gold fails to break above that recent swing high, we could see: A reversal back towards the 3900 Immediate Support level. Should 3900 fail to hold, the next significant support would be the 3800 to 3850 Next Support area. In Summary: The 4000 Key Zone is the pivotal point right now. Watch how price reacts here and whether it can overcome that immediate swing high resistance. This will largely dictate Gold's direction in the short term. Disclaimer: The information provided in this chart is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Trading and investing involve substantial risk and are not suitable for every investor. You should carefully consider your financial situation and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The creator of this chart does not guarantee any specific outcome or profit and is not responsible for any losses incurred as a result of using this information. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Use this information at your own risk. This chart has been created for my own improvement in Trading and Investment Analysis. Please do your own analysis before any investments.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by ManiMarkets
Gold Rebounds Strong – Next Stop 4230!Gold (XAUUSD) showed a sharp decline in last two days, marking a strong correction phase after making new highs. However, today’s price action indicates that buyers are stepping back in around the 4000 psychological Major support Area. Currently, gold is trading near 4113, and now there are high possibilities that gold will go for long till the Target level 4160 and Target level 4230.. KEY POINTS Current price 4113 Target level 4160 Target level 4230 Major support 4130/4100
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by IGT_Traders
5
XAU.usd watch $4313-39: Gold about to hit Double Golden fibsGold continues its relentless climb into new highs. Nearing Double Golden fibs at $4313.98 - 4339.07 Looking for a Dip-to-Fib or Break-n-Retest entries. IF there is a top anywhere near here, then THIS will be the ideal spot for it. . See "Related Pubications" for previous plots such as this PERFECT DIP: Hit BOOST and FOLLOW for more such PRECISE and TIMELY charts. ========================================================= .
OANDA:XAUUSD
by EuroMotif
XAUUSD 4D Market OutlookReversal Top Signals Correction Ahead as Fed Cut Nears Gold surged to an all-time high early last week but reversed sharply, forming a weekly closing price reversal top, a potential warning of a near-term pullback. The rally had been fuelled by expectations of Fed rate cuts and robust central bank demand, but with sentiment stretched and no fresh catalyst, traders took profits. Despite softer inflation data that reinforced expectations of a 25-basis-point Fed cut at the October 28–29 meeting, gold failed to recover lost ground. Strength in equities and a modest rebound in the dollar weighed on the metal, suggesting buyers may wait for **lower entry levels. The Fed’s easing stance is now driven by a weakening labour market rather than inflation. Slower job growth and large downward revisions to payrolls have prompted Powell to act pre-emptively. While this longer-term dovish outlook supports gold, the short-term technical picture favours consolidation. Technical Outlook The reversal top pattern isn’t confirmed yet, but continued selling would likely target $3846.50, then the 61.8% retracement near $3720.25. Unless the Fed signals a more aggressive easing path, gold may remain under **short-term corrective pressure** before resuming its broader uptrend.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by GOLDFXCC
Oct 31, 2025 - XAUUSD GOLD Analysis and Potential Opportunity📊 Analysis: On the higher timeframes, bearish momentum is weakening while bullish strength is starting to emerge. If price breaks above 4047, watch the 4050 resistance closely — once price holds above 4050, bullish momentum should become clear, and the plan shifts to buying pullbacks into support. If price falls below 4016, bullish strength weakens, and the strategy turns to selling rallies into resistance. Also, keep an eye on 3960 — a break below this level would signal renewed bearish pressure. 🔍 Key Levels to Watch: • 4085 – Resistance • 4073 – Resistance • 4065 – Resistance • 4043–4050 – Resistance zone • 4024 – Support • 4000 – Psychological level • 3987 – Support • 3978 – Support • 3960 – Key intraday support 📈 Intraday Strategy: SELL: If price breaks below 4016 → target 4011, with further downside toward 4008, 4001, 3995 BUY: If price holds above 4040 → target 4043, with further upside toward 4046, 4050, 4055
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Ombabibi
Markets Dynamics Every Pro Trader Should KnowMarkets move based on fundamental forces that shape pro traders behavior, capital flows, and asset valuations. I will cover the most important concepts that drive market behavior across all asset classes and are fundamental to professional traders. RISK-ON / RISK-OFF DYNAMICS The most important concept is the oscillation between risk-on and risk-off sentiment—investor willingness to take on risk in pursuit of returns. Risk-On: Equities, commodities, high-yield bonds, and risk-sensitive currencies like AUD, NZD rise. Typical triggers are: positive economic data, easy central bank policies, geopolitical stability. Risk-Off: Safe-haven assets : USD, JPY, CHF, U.S. Treasuries, gold strengthen. This happens as money managers and investors prioritize capital preservation. Typical triggers: negative economic data, geopolitical tensions, financial crises. Why USD strengthens during risk-off: USD has a global reserve currency status, and that structurally creates demand; deepest treasury market for holding capital; trillions in global debt denominated in USD. Why JPY strengthens during risk-off: Carry trade unwinding (investors close positions by buying back yen); Japanese institutions bring back home trillions in foreign assets during crises. INTEREST RATE DIFFERENTIALS Capital moves toward countries offering higher real interest rates (real rates = nominal rates minus inflation). This creates currency trends over weeks, months, and years. Higher interest rates leads to higher bond yields, increasing capital inflows, resulting in currency appreciates The Carry Trade: Borrow in low-yield currencies (JPY, CHF), invest in high-yield currencies (AUD, NZD), profit from interest rate differential. Carry trades unwind strongly during risk-off times due to leverage and crowded positioning. INFLATION EXPECTATIONS Markets trade based on where they expect inflation to be in the future, not current readings. Rising inflation expectations means central banks are likely to tighten policy, hence Bond yields rise and that may lead to currency strengthening initially. Key metrics: CPI (Consumer Price Index), PCE, core vs. headline inflation, break-even inflation from TIPS spreads. MONETARY POLICY CYCLES Central banks are the most powerful players in financial markets. They control interest rates and balance sheet operations. Tightening Cycle (hiking rates, quantitative tightening): Strengthens currency, negative for equities, bond prices fall, slows economic activity. Easing Cycle (cutting rates, QE): Weakens currency, positive for equities, bond prices rise, stimulates economic activity. GLOBAL GROWTH AND COMMODITY CYCLES Strong global growth means higher demand for energy/metals = Commodity prices rise = Strengthens commodity currencies (AUD, CAD, NOK, BRL). Key indicators to watch: Global PMIs, global trade data, commodity indices, China growth indicators. TERMS OF TRADE When a country's export prices rise more than its import prices, local income increases and currency typically strengthens. Example: Australia's AUD strengthens when iron ore and coal prices rise. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS Current account measures trade balance, income flows, and transfers. Surplus (exports > imports): This accumulates foreign reserves, and generally supports currency. Deficit (imports > exports): This requires capital inflows to fund deficit, and can pressure currency lower. FISCAL POLICY AND DEBT DYNAMICS Government spending and taxation are another dynamic that can influence economic growth and inflation. Expansionary Policy: Higher spending or lower taxes = short-term growth boost = can increase inflation = increases deficit. Contractionary Policy: Lower spending or higher taxes (this is know as “austerity”) = slows growth =reduces inflation = improves budget balance. YIELD CURVE One of the most important dynamics: it plots interest rates of government bonds across different maturities (2-year, 10-year, 30-year). Normal/Steep Curve: Growth and inflation optimism, typically supports risk-on sentiment. Flat Curve: Uncertainty about future growth, usually in late-cycle economies. Inverted Curve (short rates > long rates): Recession warning. markets expect the central bank to cut rates due to the slowing economy. The inverted curve has preceded almost every U.S. recession in the past half decade. LIQUIDITY CONDITIONS Liquidity means availability of credit in the financial system. High Liquidity: Credit is easy and cheap, supports asset prices, enhances risk appetite. Sources of ample liquidity are central bank QE, low interest rates. Tight liquidity: Credit becomes scarce and expensive, forces deleveraging, triggers risk-off sentiment. Reasons that can lead to low liquidity are central bank QT, rising rates, banking stress. BEHAVIORAL & POSITIONING DYNAMICS When too many investors are positioned the same way (crowded trade), small sentiment changes can trigger strong reversals. Extreme bullishness can signal sell opportunities when everyone is fully invested. Extreme bearishness can signal buy opportunities when selling pressure is exhausted. Key indicators to measure market positioning are: CFTC positioning data, VIX (volatility index), put/call ratios, fund flow data. REAL YIELDS Real Yield = Nominal Yield - Expected Inflation Rising Real Yields: Stronger currency (attracts foreign capital), weaker gold (higher opportunity cost), pressure on growth stocks. Falling Real Yields: Weaker currency, stronger gold, support for growth/tech equities. Real yields drive cross-asset flows through opportunity cost (risk-free alternative return), discount rate changes (affects stock valuations), and dollar funding (global capital flows). BOTTOM-LINE AND DYNAMICS INTERACTIONS Markets are driven by multiple forces simultaneously. The strongest moves occur when multiple dynamics align in the same direction. Identify the dominant theme (inflation? growth? central bank policy?), understand asset class implications, look for alignment, and monitor for shifts. Example Scenario - Fed Aggressive Tightening: Fed raises rates and begins QT → U.S. yields rise → Rising real yields → Tighter liquidity → Risk-off sentiment → USD strengthens, AUD/NZD/EM weaken, gold falls, growth stocks underperform. Success comes from identifying the dominant market theme, understanding implications across asset classes, looking for alignment when multiple dynamics point in the same direction, and monitoring for theme shifts that can reverse the entire market structure quickly. If you have questions or need any explanation don't hesitate to drop a comment.
TVC:GOLDEducation
by Trading_Stream
Today's gold trading strategyPolicy Shift Foundation: Transition from "Passive Defense" to "Proactive Easing" 1.Reinterpretation of the Nature of Rate Cuts: Defining this rate cut as a "defensive operation", its essence is Powell's rhetoric strategy to balance the hawkish and dovish differences. The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by only 120,000 and 105,000 in August and September respectively, continuously below the "employment stability threshold" of 150,000. The unemployment rate has risen from 3.8% to 4.2%, and the inflection point of the employment market is clear. Under such circumstances, this rate cut is by no means a "one-off hedge", but rather a confirmation of the downward pressure on the economy. Historical data shows that after the first "defensive rate cut", the probability of subsequent rate cuts by the Federal Reserve within three months is 82%, and the average increase in gold is over 6%. 2.Substantial Weakening of Inflation Constraints: Although Powell mentioned inflation risks, the core PCE has been below 3% for three consecutive months, and was recorded at 2.7% in September, just one step away from the 2% target. More importantly, the year-on-year service inflation has dropped from 4.5% to 3.8%, indicating that inflation stickiness is dissipating. This opens up space for subsequent easing - when the dual goals of inflation and employment form a "loose resonance", the interest rate sensitive rise in gold will be triggered. Today's gold trading strategy buy：3910-3920 tp:3940-3950 sl:3895
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Ryan_Lewis1