Gold Aiming for 4300? Watch U.S. PMI and ADP DataYesterday, gold once again showed a roller-coaster pattern—high-level consolidation, a pullback downward, yet still maintaining strong resilience near the highs. During the U.S. session, it fell to around 4163, but the late session recovered the losses strongly. If gold continues to hold this kind of structure, we may see the daily chart gradually shift into a rising consolidation, bringing the market back to a bull-dominant phase.
Although gold faces short-term profit-taking pressure, multiple factors—including Fed rate-cut expectations, strong central-bank buying, falling U.S. yields, a weaker dollar, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty—continue to support the upside breakout. Looking ahead, the 5000 target may not be unrealistic. Keep a close eye on the Federal Reserve and upcoming key economic data.
Today, on rebounds, continue to watch the 4236–4245 and 4265 resistance zones; if price approaches but fails to break, consider light short positions. On pullbacks, first monitor 4211–4193, and if that breaks, watch the 4176–4163 support levels.
Price action remains highly repetitive at the moment. Short-term movement shows high-level choppy consolidation with repeated spikes and pullbacks. Maintain your rhythm—avoid chasing trades, and pay attention to disciplined execution.
Yesterday’s public plan was to buy near 4200, short around 4230, then buy again below 4178 and close at 4187, waiting for another dip to re-enter. However, the market turned strong, so we chased lightly in the 4187–4180 area and are still holding. If resistance near 4245 fails to break, the long positions will be closed, and we will shift to short trades.
Therefore, today’s trading plan is:
Sell above 4240
Buy below 4200
Trade ideas
GOLD ANALYSIS 12/02/20251. Fundamental Analysis:
a) Economy:
• USD:
The USD is seeing a mild rebound after a strong decline, mainly technical in nature, with no sufficiently strong data to reverse the trend. This only creates short-term pressure on gold.
• U.S. Stock Market:
U.S. markets are mixed due to concerns over slowing corporate earnings. This cautious sentiment is shifting capital flows toward gold.
• Federal Reserve (FED):
The FED maintains a dovish stance, prioritizing economic stability and considering rate cuts. This continues to support gold.
• Trump Administration:
The Trump administration is taking a tougher stance toward several countries, increasing geopolitical uncertainty and boosting safe-haven demand.
• Gold ETF – SPDR:
SPDR has been buying strongly for two consecutive sessions, reinforcing the medium-term uptrend for gold — a highly important factor.
b) Politics:
Multiple geopolitical hotspots occurring simultaneously:
• Ongoing Middle East conflict
• Intensifying strategic competition in Asia
• Russia–Ukraine tensions unresolved
• Venezuela–U.S. relations becoming a new focal point as the Trump administration takes a tougher stance
→ Overall: Risk-off sentiment rises sharply, benefiting gold.
c) Market Sentiment:
Safe-haven sentiment continues to dominate. Investors are reducing risk, pulling out of equities, and pouring into gold — especially with strong SPDR inflows. Asia is also entering its seasonal year-end gold-buying cycle.
2. Technical Analysis:
• Gold has broken out of a major wedge pattern and is currently retesting the breakout area.
• Price is trading above short-term moving averages, showing a clear bullish trend.
• The market is expected to retest the 4186–4190 zone before pushing higher again.
• Next target zones: 4274 → 4320 → 4380.
• M15 RSI is slightly oversold → suitable for a technical bounce.
RESISTANCE: 4,274 – 4,320 – 4,380
SUPPORT: 4,186 – 4,146 – 4,095
3. Previous Market Session (01/12/25):
• Gold maintained its primary uptrend, with only mild corrections that did not break structure.
• SPDR continued buying → confirms real demand.
• USD’s slight rebound did not significantly affect the overall bullish momentum.
• Gold dropped to the opening price at 4,217 and then surged back up to 4,264.
4. Trading Strategy for Today (02/12/25):
🪙 SELL XAUUSD | 4241 – 4239
SL: 4245
TP1: 4233
TP2: 4227
🪙 BUY XAUUSD | 4178 – 4180
SL: 4174
TP1: 4186
TP2: 4192
GOLDDO YOU KNOW WHATS BEHIND THIS OR OTHER IDEAS?? in bio..
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Market Structure: Resistance to Support TargetThe chart illustrates a clear reaction from the established resistance zone, leading to a bearish move toward the support zone. The marked target region represents the expected price objective after rejection from resistance, demonstrating clean market structure and zone-to-zone movement.
XAUUSD (1H) – Rejection Zone Retest SetupOANDA:XAUUSD
A corrective phase is expected if price fails to sustain above the rejection zone. A retest of the new structural support around 4,209–4,210 remains the key reaction level. If bearish confirmation forms below the rejection line, downside continuation becomes valid.
Key Scenarios
❌ Bearish Case (Primary Setup) 📉
If price rejects the 4,241 rejection zone and forms confirmation:
→ 🎯 Target: 4,147
Further continuation possible if breakdown momentum continues.
✅ Bullish Case 🚀 (Invalidation Flip)
A clean break and candle close above 4,241 with retest holding may shift momentum back toward recent highs.
Current Levels to Watch
Resistance 🔴:
4,241 (zone of rejection)
Support 🟢:
4,209 (entry interest zone)
4,147 (target support)
⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only — not financial advice.
Golden Breakout Surge [XAUUSD]OANDA:XAUUSD Golden Breakout Surge
Signal: BUYEntry: 4,192.70
TP1: 4,216.70TP
2: 4,253.00TP
3: 4,278.00
SL: 4,163.27
Insights:
Price broke structure (BOS) and confirmed bullish CHoCH above 4,192.70, aligning with VRVP high-volume node.
RSI near 68.92 signals bullish momentum without overextension; MACD histogram rising confirms trend strength.
Entry sits atop a prior volume gap (VG) and Fibonacci 0.618 zone, indicating strong liquidity support.
#BreakoutMomentum #LiquidityZoneConfirmed #MultiTimeframeConfluence#RiskReward2_5x #GoldScalpingEdge #HunterSetup
🌟 Trade Like Hunter (for professional edge)
✅ High-Probability Setup: Confluence across VRVP (volume shelf), MA (bullish slope), RSI (momentum), MACD (trend confirmation)📊 Risk-Reward Ratio: ~2.5:1 (Entry to TP3 vs SL)🔑 Liquidity Zone Confirmation: Entry aligns with prior imbalance and volume gap zone🧠 Market Psychology: Traders shifting from accumulation to breakout phase⚡ Probability Score: 80% High Probability📈 Scalability: Setup aligns with H4 and H1 structure for intraday and swing potential
🔒 Risk Disclaimer: Always use proper lot sizing and SL. No setup guarantees profit—manage risk wisely.
XAUUSD continues to rise after the Adam & Eve patternOANDA:XAUUSD is really interesting right now. The price seems likely to rise further after the formation of the Adam & Eve pattern. With such an easy-to-remember name, the Adam & Eve pattern is one of the most memorable. I will explain below the reasons and how to recognize it easily.
The Adam pattern is characterized by a sharp drop, followed by a quick recovery, forming a "V" on the chart. High, sharp, and aggressive! One could say it's more "masculine."
On the other hand, the Eve pattern develops more slowly. The price becomes more rounded, forming a wider and smoother base before rising again, creating a shape similar to the letter "U." Softer, more curved, and more "feminine."
Combining these two elements gives us the Adam & Eve pattern, which often signals a potential trend reversal. Especially when accompanied by fundamental analysis or other strong technical indicators.
This pattern will stick in your mind when you connect its shapes to the male and female aspects. A pattern that is truly hard to forget.
XAUUSD 15M — Trend Continuation SetupOANDA:XAUUSD
The current move suggests continuation as long as price stays above the rising trendline. A pullback into the highlighted support area may act as the next bullish re-entry before continuation toward upper liquidity levels.
Key Scenarios
✅ Bullish Case 🚀
If price retests the 4205–4213 support area and shows bullish confirmation:
🎯 Target 1: 4235
🎯 Target 2: 4255
🎯 Extended Target (Liquidity Grab Zone): 4275–4285
❌ Bearish Case 📉
Break below 4193 may invalidate the bullish structure and shift momentum back toward deeper support.
Current Levels to Watch
Support 🟢: 4193–4213
Breakout Confirmation ⚡: Above 4230
Liquidity Target 🎯: 4275–4285
⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only — not financial advice.
GOLD IS OVERBOUGHT|SHORT|
✅XAUUSD After sweeping liquidity above the supply zone, price is about to retest the rejection point in a premium area. A draw on liquidity toward the next inefficiency is favored as the market seeks a balanced repricing leg. Time Frame: 3H.
SHORT🔥
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1205 XAUUSD 4-Hour Chart Trading Plan for EU/US SessionsHello traders,
1. Harmonic Pattern Identification (Left 4-hour Chart)
This is a bullish Butterfly Pattern, confirmed by the following key ratios:
- AB leg: Retraced ~0.78 of the XA leg (aligns with the typical 0.786 retracement for Butterfly patterns).
- BC leg: Retraced ~0.845 of the AB leg (close to the standard 0.886 retracement for this pattern).
- CD leg: Extended ~1.333 of the BC leg (falls within the 1.27–1.618 extension range required for a valid Butterfly setup).
2. Trading Plan (US/EU Session, Dec 5)
Primary (Bullish) Strategy
- Entry: Buy in the 4,200–4,210 zone (near EMA support/short-term consolidation).
- Stop Loss: Below 4,180 (breaks recent rebound low + daily Doji support).
- Targets:
1. First: 4,245 (daily resistance ).
2. Second: 4,265 (4-hour chart’s marked Butterfly TP2 resistance).
3. Risk Note
Today is Friday + pre-Fed meeting (Dec 9–10) → volatility may rise. Use strict stop-losses (15–20 pips) and avoid over-leveraging.
GOOD LUCK!
LESS IS MORE!
The odds of making a profit by going long on gold are high.Three Core Bullish Logics: Consolidating the Foundation for Upside
(I) Policy Dividends: Strengthened Rate-Cut Expectations, High Certainty of Easing
Dovish signals from the Federal Reserve continue to emerge, with core officials including New York Fed President John Williams hinting at a policy shift toward easing. Market expectations for a 25-basis-point rate cut in December have become the mainstream consensus. Weak U.S. employment data further confirms the economic cooling trend, providing fundamental support for accommodative policies.
Historical data shows that during phases dominated by rate-cut expectations, gold’s allocation value as a non-interest-bearing asset stands out—with a short-term upside probability exceeding 70%. Policy dividends offer strong support for gold prices.
(II) Capital Flows: Central Bank + Institutional Resonance, Solid Bottom Support
The global central bank gold-buying spree remains unabated: global central banks recorded a net gold purchase of 220 tons in Q3 2025, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 28%. Central banks including China and Poland have continued to increase holdings, and the $4,170–$4,200 range is near the official purchase cost zone, forming a rigid bottom.
Meanwhile, long-term allocation capital has firmly entered the market: global gold ETF holdings surged by 222 tons in the first three quarters, and demand for gold bars and coins has exceeded 300 tons for four consecutive quarters. Institutional capital underpinning limits the room for pullbacks.
(III) Technical Support: Stabilization at Key Ranges, Intact Bullish Structure
On the daily chart, gold prices remain near the 5-day moving average. The $4,170–$4,180 range forms strong support, coinciding with the Bollinger Bands’ lower track and the previous consolidation platform. Multiple tests of this level have failed to break it, verifying the resilience of buying interest.
The 4-hour chart shows that the stochastic indicator has formed a golden cross and is moving upward, while the MACD maintains a bullish structure. Despite short-term volatility, the bullish trend remains intact. The short-term core support is focused on $4,180, with the key resistance level at $4,245—pullbacks within the oscillatory range present buying-on-dip opportunities.
Gold trading strategy
buy:4180-4190
tp:4200-4210-4240
sl:4170
GOLD End-of-Week Trend Exhaustion on XAUUSD My AnalysisXAUUSD (Gold) has been bearish all week, and as we head toward the end of the week, we need to stay cautious. 📉⚠️ When the weekly trend is already pushing lower, institutional traders often start winding out of their short positions. This can cause unexpected pullbacks or even full retracements. And remember — trends don’t move in one direction forever. They weaken, especially toward the end of the week. 😮💨
So the real question becomes: do you really want to trade with the trend right as it’s hitting potential exhaustion?
Looking at the chart, Gold has traded lower and broken through a key level. When we check the volume profile, the Point of Control (POC) is sitting right above current price — and that level is stacked with previous order flow. 🧱📊 That makes it a strong resistance area, and for me personally, it’s not an area I’d want to be buying into.
Because today is Thursday, a sell setup could still be valid if we see price pull back and then break structure to the downside again. But as mentioned earlier, be careful — late in the week we often see profit-taking, which can push price back up before the weekly close. 🕒🔄
Trade smart and manage risk.
Not financial advice.
Dec 4, 2025 - XAUUSD GOLD Analysis and Potential Opportunity📊 Summary:
Bullish momentum has weakened, but bearish momentum has not fully taken over — the market remains in a range-bound, choppy environment.
If price breaks below 4195, bearish momentum strengthens → bias shifts to selling rallies into resistance.
If price reclaims 4245, bullish momentum returns → bias shifts to buying pullbacks into support.
Between 4195–4245, structure is messy and levels are mixed. Trade cautiously, use strict stops, and focus on selling high/buying low until a clear breakout occurs.
🔍 Key Levels to Watch:
• 4265 – Resistance
• 4257 – Resistance
• 4245 – Key resistance
• 4230 – Resistance
• 4216 – Resistance
• 4206 – Support
• 4200 – Round-number level
• 4195 – Intraday key support
• 4182 – Support
• 4174 – Support
📈 Asia Session Intraday Strategy:
SELL: If price breaks below 4203 → target 4200, with further downside toward 4195, 4189, 4182
BUY: If price holds above 4216 → target 4220, with further upside toward 4225, 4230, 4235
GOLD DAILY Gold (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis (Daily Chart)
1. Main Trend
Gold has been in a strong bullish uptrend for several months.
The price is trading above the:
50-day MA (green)
100-day MA (red)
200-day MA (blue)
This confirms long-term bullish structure.
However, recently the trend has shifted into sideways consolidation after reaching a peak.
2. Current Market Behavior
Consolidation Range
Price is moving inside a large horizontal range, shown in the big orange box.
Several wicks and choppy structure indicate market indecision.
The consolidation started after hitting the high near 4381–4384.
Repeated Rejection at Resistance
The horizontal resistance zone at ~4380–4390 has rejected price multiple times.
This increases the probability of a bearish correction.
3. Fibonacci Levels
The chart includes various Fibonacci retracement levels:
0.25 (4195)
0.5 (3861)
0.75 (3602)
1.0 (3342)
These levels mark potential support zones where price could retrace during a correction.
4. Bearish Setup
The drawn short position shows a planned move:
Entry: near the top of the consolidation
Stop-loss: above the resistance
Target: near the 0.75 to 1.0 Fibonacci zone (3600–3340)
Risk/Reward
The R/R ratio is 6.64, meaning the expected reward is significantly higher than the risk.
Bearish Projection Path
The drawn red path suggests:
Initial drop from resistance
A small bounce
A strong continuation downward
A deeper correction reaching the lower green support zone
Final reversal upward from major support
This scenario is expected to unfold over 28 bars (40 days).
5. Support Zones
Key support areas are highlighted:
3600 – 3860 → first major support
3340 – 3400 → final deep support (target zone)
The green box shows the projected landing zone for the bearish movement.
6. Momentum Indicator
The histogram at the bottom shows declining bullish momentum.
This often appears before a trend reversal or correction.
7. Summary of Interpretation
Gold reached a major top and has entered consolidation.
Resistance remains very strong at 4380–4390.
A bearish correction is likely, potentially deep.
The chart projects a multi-wave drop over the next 40 days.
Long-term trend stays bullish, but a short-term drop is expected.
Gold Eyes Support as Fed Cut Bets Fuel Volatility📊 Market Developments
• Gold is trading around ~4,224 USD/ounce, with strong volatility as U.S. bond yields rise slightly → creating downward pressure on gold.
• Expectations that the Fed may cut interest rates soon help gold maintain underlying buying interest.
• The market is awaiting new U.S. economic data to determine a clearer direction.
📉 Technical Analysis
Key Resistance:
1. 4,240 – 4,250 USD (near resistance – recent reaction high).
2. 4,268 – 4,275 USD (extended resistance – breaking above may open the path toward 4,300).
Key Support:
1. 4,180 – 4,200 USD (near support – strong buy zone for bulls).
2. 4,155 – 4,165 USD (mid-term support – aligns with major EMAs; losing this zone may trigger a drop toward 4,130).
EMA:
• Price is hovering around EMA09 on H1/H4 → short-term trend remains indecisive, no clear bullish or bearish confirmation yet.
Candles / Volume / Momentum:
• Volume leans bearish, momentum slightly declining.
• Waiting for confirmation candles: a bullish reversal at 4,180–4,200 or a strong breakdown below 4,165.
📌 Outlook
Gold may retest support with mild downside, especially if U.S. yields continue rising.
However, weak economic data and stronger expectations of Fed rate cuts could trigger a rebound from support.
➡️ Current trend: Neutral – slightly bearish, waiting for reaction at support.
💡 Suggested Trading Strategy
🔻 SELL XAU/USD: 4,242 – 4,245
🎯 TP: 40 / 80 / 200 pips
❌ SL: ~4,248
🔺 BUY XAU/USD: 4,158 – 4,155
🎯 TP: 40 / 80 / 200 pips
❌ SL: ~4,152
Gold Coiled Tight – 4,200–4,214 Breakout LoadingGold (XAU/USD) – Quick 5M Update Price stuck in a super-tight 4,200–4,214 range after repeated rejections at the top, flat 200MA, volume drying up fast. Classic coil setting up for a violent breakout. Bullish trigger: close above 4,216 → fast move to 4,240+
Bearish trigger: close below 4,200 → drop to 4,180–4,170
Fade the edges or wait for the break. #XAUUSD #Gold #BreakoutImminent #RangeCompression #Trading Not financial advice – trade at your own risk.
Gold Bullish Continuation or Pullback MoveXAU/USD is maintaining a strong bullish structure after recovering from the major demand zone area and pushing through multiple resistance levels. Price action shows a clean transition from accumulation to expansion, supported by an upside channel, indicating consistent buyer control.
After the liquidity sweep below the range, the market formed a rounded base and began creating higher highs along the curve line. Even though the curve line was briefly broken, buyers quickly regained momentum, driving price back into the buyer zone near 4,250. This zone remains a critical decision area; holding above it may trigger a continuation toward the upper supply zone and the immediate bullish target around 4,360.
If price rejects from the buyer zone, a corrective pullback toward 4,180–4,140 is possible before another attempt upward. However, as long as the higher-timeframe demand zone remains protected, the main bias stays bullish. Market structure, channel formation, and prior liquidity sweeps all support the likelihood of further upside continuation.
XAU/USD Chart Analysis (30M) I 12/03📊 XAU/USD Chart Analysis (30M)
I. Market Context
Trend/Price Action: The 30-minute chart shows that the price is in a short-term uptrend (indicated by the dashed trendline) after testing the Demand Zone. However, this recent upward move is following a period of consolidation/sideways trading within a broader range.
Current Price Position: The price is hovering around $4,222.90 (based on the latest data on the chart).
Key Volume Profile Levels:
POC (Point of Control): $4,237.547 — The price level with the highest accumulated trading volume, representing the market's "Fair Price."
VAH (Value Area High): $4,252.758 — The upper boundary of the Value Area.
VAL (Value Area Low): $4,212.802 — The lower boundary of the Value Area.
The current price is located above the VAL, suggesting an attempt to break out from the lower portion of the accumulated trading range.
II. Liquidity Zones and Key Levels
The following are the critical price levels and their roles in the current market structure:
Value Area High (VAH) at $4,252.758: This serves as a significant resistance level and a crucial benchmark for confirming a strong continuation of the upward momentum.
Point of Control (POC) at $4,237.547: This level, representing the highest volume traded, acts as the primary psychological/technical resistance and is the most probable target for the current bullish push.
Value Area Low (VAL) at $4,212.802: This is the main support level right now. As long as the price stays above the VAL, the buyers are considered to be in control.
Demand Zone at $4,169.399: This is a strong major support area where significant buying pressure previously emerged and pushed the price higher.
In summary, the VAL ($4,212.802) is the most important short-term dividing line for market control.
III. Trading Scenarios and Plan
Given the context of price recovering from the Demand Zone and holding above the VAL, the primary scenarios are:
🟢 Plan 1: Bullish Continuation Scenario (Long/Buy) - Preferred
Trigger: Price continues to advance from the current position or pulls back slightly and holds firmly above the VAL ($4,212.802).
Entry:
Aggressive: Buy at the current price area (around $4,222) with a tight Stop Loss (SL).
Conservative: Wait for a pullback to the $4,212 - $4,218 area (near the VAL) and look for rejection signals (Pin bar, Engulfing, etc.).
Targets (Take Profit - TP):
TP1: POC ($4,237.547)
TP2: VAH ($4,252.758)
TP3: The higher resistance area of $4,260 - $4,270.
Stop Loss (SL): Place it below the VAL ($4,212.802), perhaps below $4,208, to protect the position if the price re-enters the Value Area.
🔴 Plan 2: Bearish Reversal Scenario (Short/Sell)
Trigger: The price breaks and closes a 30M/1H candle below the VAL ($4,212.802), indicating that sellers have regained control and the price is heading towards the bottom of the Trading Range.
Entry: Sell after the breakout of the VAL and a failed retest from below.
Targets (TP):
TP1: $4,190.00 area
TP2: Towards the Demand Zone ($4,169.399).
Stop Loss (SL): Place it above the VAL, possibly above $4,218.
IV. Summary
The market is currently showing positive recovery signs after finding support at the Demand Zone ($4,169). The most critical price level to watch is the VAL ($4,212.802).
Above $4,212.802 (VAL): Bullish Expectation (Long Bias) with targets toward the POC and VAH.
Below $4,212.802 (VAL): Bearish Expectation (Short Bias) with targets toward the bottom of the trading range.
XAUUSD 15m – Bullish Continuation Toward Final TargetOANDA:XAUUSD
Gold swept liquidity beneath the descending channel, then immediately broke out with strong momentum, confirming a new demand zone at the lows. After reclaiming mid-range structure, price is pushing upward toward the next liquidity bracket at $4,230, where a small corrective pullback is likely before continuation. Market sentiment remains bullish as long as price stays above the newly formed demand zone.
Key Scenarios
✅ Bullish Case 🚀
Maintain support above $4,215 – $4,218
Small correction from liquidity target zone
Continuation to:
🎯 Target 1: $4,230
🎯 Final Target: $4,264 (major liquidity + top resistance zone)
❌ Bearish Case 📉
Only valid if price breaks below $4,181
🎯 Downside Target: $4,164 (previous sweep level)
Current Levels to Watch
Resistance 🔴: $4,230 / $4,264
Support 🟢: $4,215 / $4,181 / $4,164
⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice.






















