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XAUUSD Technical Analysis: 3 Scenarios for Key Zones Gold is consolidating around a critical level. My analysis outlines three potential scenarios, with a primary focus on Scenario 1 and 2. Key Levels: · Entry Zone: ~4123 - 4144 · Entry Zone: ~4190- 4207 · TP1 (Scenarios 1 & 2): +40 pips · Logical Stop Loss in place for risk management. these are Medium/Low Risk setups that tick all my technical checklist boxes. The probability of the setups is my primary focus over R/R. Chart & Analysis by MYshare_finance #XAUUSD #Gold #TradingSetup #Forex #SwingTrading #TechnicalAnalysis
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Myshare_finance1
GOLD BULL RUN FIBONACCI STRATEGY.Fibonacci is a mathematical sequence and set of ratios widely used in financial markets for technical analysis. It originates from the Fibonacci sequence — a series of numbers where each number is the sum of the two preceding ones (0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, …). The key Fibonacci ratios derived from this sequence include 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, and 100%. Application in Finance and Trading: Fibonacci Retracement Levels are used by traders to identify potential support and resistance levels where prices tend to reverse or stall after a significant movement. For example, after a strong trend, prices often retrace or pull back to these Fibonacci levels before continuing in the original direction. Common retracement levels are 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8%, which indicate how much of the prior move the price may reverse. Fibonacci extensions and projections help forecast future price targets during trending markets. #GOLD #XAUUSD
FUSIONMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
XAUUSD NEXT POSSIBLE MOVE Gold is holding firmly above a major support zone, showing strong signs of buyer dominance and renewed momentum after a corrective phase. Price action indicates clear accumulation, with multiple rejections from lower levels — confirming that buyers are actively defending this zone. If the market continues to sustain above this support and breaks minor resistance levels, it could trigger a strong bullish continuation. Volume and momentum indicators also align with a shift toward buying strength, suggesting that the next impulsive leg to the upside may already be building. As long as Gold remains above this key support area, the structure and sentiment stay firmly bullish, and any dips toward support could present strong buying opportunities.
CAPITALCOM:GOLDLong
by GOLDPAIRUPDATE1
Gold: Full verification of today's trend prediction👏Our prediction for today's gold trend has been validated by the market: 1.Key Level Prediction: We previously indicated that after consolidating with oscillations during the daytime, gold would require close attention to the breakthrough and stabilization of the 4250 level, a break above this level was expected to sustain an upward momentum. The actual market movement showed that after completing its daytime fluctuations, gold successfully broke through 4250, stabilized above it, and immediately initiated an upward rally. 2.Target Range Achievement: Based on the breakthrough logic, we set the preset upward target range at 4280 – 4300. By the end of today’s trading session, gold had successfully reached this range, peaking at 4298.64. The accurate realization of the target validates the effectiveness of our judgment on bullish momentum and resistance levels. 💡Our today’s prediction for gold was built on the core framework of "technical key level breakthrough + trend continuity": it focused on the "sustained bullish momentum following a breakthrough of key resistance", and incorporated an analysis of market sentiment and volume logic. Ultimately, this resulted in a high degree of alignment between the prediction and the actual market trend.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Clarke_analysis
Intermarket Analysis: Bitcoin / Gold / USD – Mid-2026 Projection🔶 Intermarket Analysis: Bitcoin / Gold / USD – Mid-2026 Projection Macro Context Based on a cross-asset analysis of BTC/USD, GOLD/USD, and the BTC/Gold ratio, we can identify a potential capital rotation phase between digital and tangible stores of value. Currently: • BTC/USD ≈ $110,900 • Gold/USD ≈ $4,200/oz • BTC/Gold ≈ 26 I have projection that by mid-2026, BTC will trade around $75,000, and the BTC/Gold ratio will decline toward 16. This implies a significant relative strength shift from Bitcoin toward Gold. ⸻ 1️⃣ BTC/USD Technical Structure • The chart shows a strong uptrend support line from the 2020 low. • Price recently rejected near the $120K all-time high, forming a local top. • The confluence zone around $70–75K (previous resistance, now support) aligns with the potential pullback target — the orange ascending trendline confirms this zone. • This area could represent the next accumulation base before any renewed bullish continuation toward $130–150K in the longer term. → Mid-term projection: retrace to 70–75K → long-term outlook: consolidation, followed by re-acceleration if liquidity improves. ⸻ 2️⃣ BTC/Gold Ratio Analysis • Currently at 26.3, this pair shows a clear descending momentum since the 2021 peak. • The chart suggests a continuation toward the support band between 14–16, matching previous cycle lows. • Historically, every test of this range coincided with a strong rebound in Gold and a temporary cooling phase in Bitcoin. • The projected ratio decline from 26 → 16 indicates that Gold will outperform Bitcoin by roughly 40% in the same period. ⸻ 3️⃣ Gold/USD • Gold recently broke out from its multi-year consolidation and is now trading around $4,200/oz, approaching the Fibonacci 3.618 extension near $4,680–$4,700. • This technical level coincides with the implied fair value derived from the BTC/Gold ratio forecast: Gold = BTC / (BTC/Gold) = 75,000 / 16 ≈ 4700$ In percentage terms: • BTC may drop ≈ −31% from current levels. • Gold may rise ≈ +12% nominally, potentially +15–18% when adjusted for continued USD devaluation. → Target zone: $4,680–$4,700/oz by mid-2026 → Corresponds with Fibonacci 3.618 extension on the quarterly timeframe. ⸻ 📊 Intermarket Conclusion • The BTC/Gold ratio breakdown historically precedes reallocation toward safe assets. • The forecast suggests a moderate BTC correction coupled with a gold appreciation, while the dollar continues its steady erosion in purchasing power. • Gold may reach ~$4,700/oz, aligning perfectly with both Fibonacci and ratio-based projections. • BTC remains in a long-term bull trend, but relative outperformance shifts temporarily toward Gold until new liquidity waves arrive.
TVC:GOLDLong
by osamaadi
SMART MONEY CONCEPT (SMC)📊 Market Breakdown 1. Structure: The market created a New HH (Higher High), confirming bullish pressure and liquidity grab on the buy-side. 2. ChoCh + BOS: A Change of Character and subsequent Break of Structure validate momentum shifts while keeping the bullish narrative intact. 3. OB-1H (Order Block): The 1H Order Block is the key demand zone where price is expected to mitigate, collect liquidity, and prepare for continuation. 4. Fake Out + Rejection: Your projection correctly anticipates a liquidity grab (fake out) into the OB, followed by a rejection—perfect institutional behavior for a bullish continuation setup. 5. Distribution & Targets: After rejection, the market is expected to expand and distribute upward. • Entry: 4,151 • Stop Loss: 4,126 • TP1: 4,217 (first liquidity target) • TP2: 4,250 (extended target / higher liquidity pool) • R/R Ratio: 1:4 → very strong. 🌟 Motivational Note “Institutions always move in phases: accumulation, manipulation, and distribution. 📊 We’re not chasing—we’re waiting for the fake out, the rejection, and then riding the wave to new highs. 🎯 Patience and precision = consistency. 🚀🔥” GOOD LUCK TRADERS ;)
CAPITALCOM:GOLDLong
by Fonseca87
Gold (XAU/USD) Bullish Channel Breakout & Retest Strategy 1H ANAChart Overview Trend: Strong bullish trend within a rising channel. Current Price: Around 4183.81 USD Resistance Zone: 4185 – 4200 Support Zone: 4125 – 4150 Next Key Level / Target: 4235 USD The price has been respecting the ascending channel very well — bouncing from support and rejecting resistance repeatedly. --- 📈 Bullish Scenario (Main Bias) If price breaks and closes above the resistance zone (≈4200): It confirms continuation of the uptrend. Expect price to rally toward the next target at 4235–4250. This breakout would show buyers’ dominance. ✅ Buy Strategy (Breakout Play): 1. Wait for a 1H candle close above 4200. 2. Enter a buy position near 4205–4210. 3. Stop-loss: Below 4170 (previous swing low). 4. Take-profit: TP1 → 4235 TP2 → 4250 📉 Bearish Scenario (Pullback Play) If price rejects from resistance zone (4200): Expect a short-term pullback toward the support zone (4125–4150). This will be a retest of the lower channel area before another bullish move. ✅ Buy Strategy (Retest Play): 1. Wait for price to fall back into the support zone (4125–4150). 2. Enter a buy once a bullish reversal candle (pin bar / engulfing) forms. 3. Stop-loss: Below 4100. 4. Take-profit: TP1 → 4185 TP2 → 4235 ⚠ Risk Management Use 1–2% risk per trade. Avoid entering if price stays between resistance & support (no-man’s-land). Confirm breakouts with volume increase or strong candle bodies. 🧠 Summary Bias Entry Stop Loss Take Profit Notes Buy (Breakout) Above 4200 <4170 4235–4250 Strong continuation setup Buy (Retest) 4125–4150 <4100 4185–4235 Safer entry after pullback
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by LABA_GOLD_TRADING
Gold key levels to watchGold has continued to soar, setting new record highs today and dismissing concerns that prices may have gotten too hot. As traders, we will take it from level to level and assess the situation accordingly. The recent price action has left behind a few tradeable levels. The first line of support now comes in at 4059, marking last week's high. Below that is Friday's high at 4023 and then the all-important 4,000 level, where a short-term bullish trend line also comes into play. If gold gets below 4K, then this could be a sign of troubles for the bulls. The most recent low prior to latest breakout is at 3944, making this the line in the sand. in terms of upside targets, well it is anyone's guess how far gold could rise given how strong the trend is right now. But do keep an eye on round handles like 4100 (which broke earlier), 4200 and so on. The trend is your friend. Until it stabs you in the back, that is. So, always ensure you have sound risk management in place regardless of how strong a market might appear to be. By Fawad Razqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by FOREXcom
Gold’s Golden Retest?Gold continues to trade within a rising blue channel, maintaining its overall bullish structure. Currently, price is retesting the intersection between the lower blue trendline and the red structure zone, which has acted as strong support multiple times. As long as this confluence area holds, I’ll be looking for trend-following longs targeting the upper boundary of the channel. A break and close below this zone would temporarily pause the bullish momentum and open room for a deeper correction. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk properly. 📚 Stick to your trading plan regarding entries, risk, and management. Good luck! 🍀 All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Richard Nasr
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TheSignalyst
Gold's Record-Breaking Rally: Why $4,000 is Just the StartThe global financial landscape is sending a clear signal that the old rules are broken. On October 17, gold prices shattered all-time records, surging to nearly $4,400 per ounce, just days after breaking the $4,000 barrier for the first time in history. This isn't a temporary spike; it's a fundamental re-pricing of wealth. Investors are fleeing traditional "safe havens" in search of real security, and they've found it in the one asset that has preserved wealth for 5,000 years. For those watching from the sidelines, this raises two urgent questions: Why is this happening now, and is it too late to act? As a 14-year veteran in the gold market, I can tell you this rally is far from over. Here’s a breakdown of what’s driving the surge and why gold remains the most critical investment for the future. A Perfect Storm: The 10 Drivers Behind Gold's Historic Rise The current price surge isn't due to one single factor but a powerful convergence of economic, political, and psychological forces. 1. Geopolitical Chaos: From the ongoing war in Ukraine to conflict in the Middle East and the persistent US-China trade tensions, the world is in a state of turmoil. During times of crisis, gold is the ultimate "crisis hedge." Major investment banks note that significant geopolitical events consistently drive gold 10-15% higher as investors seek stability. 2. US Political & Economic Uncertainty: Unpredictable policies, pressure on the Federal Reserve, and mounting political division in the U.S. have eroded global trust in American leadership and its assets. Investors no longer view US bonds with the same confidence, and that capital is flowing directly into gold. 3. Massive Central Bank Buying: This is one of the biggest stories. Central banks around the world—led by China, Russia, India, and Turkey—bought a record 3,200 tonnes of gold between 2022 and 2024. These are not speculators; they are "price-insensitive buyers" seeking long-term security, and they are permanently removing massive amounts of supply from the market. 4. The Rise of De-Dollarization: When Western nations sanctioned Russia and froze $300 billion of its dollar reserves, it sent a shockwave through the global south. Nations realized that holding dollars is a political risk. This has triggered a massive, long-term trend of "de-dollarization," where countries are actively dumping US dollars and replacing them with neutral, sanction-proof gold. 5. A Fundamental Shift in Reserves: For the first time since 1996, central banks' gold reserves have surpassed their holdings of US Treasury bonds. This isn't just diversification; it's a strategic replacement. Gold is being re-throned as the world's primary reserve asset, replacing the US dollar. 6. Expected Interest Rate Cuts: The U.S. Federal Reserve is signaling an end to its rate-hiking cycle, with cuts expected. When interest rates fall, the return (yield) on bonds and savings accounts drops, making non-yielding gold more attractive. Investors are front-running this move. 7. The Crushing Weight of Global Debt: The United States government is now over $37 trillion in debt. This mountain of debt is unpayable. The only way for governments to manage it is to devalue their currencies by printing more money, which causes inflation. Gold is the direct antidote to this currency debasement. 8. The Ultimate Inflation Hedge: While inflation has cooled slightly, the damage is done, and the threat remains. Decades of money printing have destroyed the purchasing power of fiat currencies. Gold is the ultimate "inflation hedge" because its value is intrinsic and cannot be inflated away by a central bank. 9. Surging ETF and Investment Demand: Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) have made it simple for average investors to buy gold. This has opened the floodgates to a new class of investor, adding to the demand from central banks and traditional buyers. 10. Market Psychology (FOMO): Success breeds success. As prices hit new records daily, investors who were on the fence are now experiencing a powerful "Fear of Missing Out" (FOMO). This psychological driver creates a feedback loop, pulling more and more money into the market and pushing prices even higher. Beyond the Headlines: The Hidden Drivers On top of those 10 reasons, other powerful factors are adding fuel to the fire: • Physical Supply Constraints: "Peak Gold" is a real concept. The easiest-to-find gold in the world has already been mined. New discoveries are rare, and it is becoming increasingly difficult and expensive to extract new supply from the ground. • Rising Energy Costs: Gold mining is an incredibly energy-intensive process. As the cost of oil and energy rises, the "all-in-sustaining cost" (the floor price to produce an ounce of gold) also rises, pulling the market price up with it. • Loss of Faith in Alternatives: After years of extreme volatility, regulatory crackdowns, and high-profile frauds, the cryptocurrency market has failed to prove itself as a reliable "digital gold." Many investors who sought an alternative to the fiat system are now returning to the original, 5,000-year-old decentralized asset. The Future Forecast: Why $5,000 Gold is the Next Target The world's top financial institutions believe this rally is just getting started. The core drivers—de-dollarization, central bank buying, and unmanageable debt—are not short-term trends; they are multi-decade structural shifts. • Goldman Sachs predicts gold will reach $5,000 per ounce by December 2026. • Bank of America has also released a forecast, stating that a $5,000 target is possible within the same timeframe. • UBS sees prices remaining elevated above $4,200 throughout 2026. These forecasts are based on the simple fact that the fundamental problems driving investors to gold are only getting worse. In an Uncertain Future, Gold is Your Financial Anchor In the coming years, "safety" will be redefined. A safe asset is not one that is merely stable; it's one that cannot fail. Gold is the ultimate safe-haven investment for one simple reason: it has zero counterparty risk. • When you buy a stock, you are trusting a CEO and a management team. The company can go bankrupt. • When you buy a bond, you are trusting a government or corporation to pay you back, in a currency that is worth less every day. • When you hold cash, you are trusting a central bank not to devalue it to zero (a promise they have broken time and time again). When you hold physical gold, you are trusting no one. It is an asset that is not simultaneously someone else's liability. It cannot go bankrupt, and it cannot be printed into oblivion. It has preserved wealth through every war, plague, and financial collapse in human history. Why Gold is the Only True Asset We have come to confuse currency with money and digital entries with wealth. Gold is the only true asset. Fiat currency (USD, EUR, etc.) is a medium of exchange, but it is a liability of the central bank that issues it. It is backed only by faith in a political system—a faith that is clearly eroding. Real estate is a tangible asset, but it is illiquid, expensive to maintain, and can be taxed or seized by the government. Gold is different. It is elemental wealth. It is the only asset that is durable, divisible, portable, has intrinsic value, and is recognized as money everywhere on Earth by every culture. The current price surge is not a "bubble." It is a "Great Re-Pricing"—the market's slow, dawning realization that paper currencies are failing and that gold is the only reliable measure of value. The question is no longer if you should own gold, but how much of your savings you can afford not to protect with it. Gold Technical Analysis: When Technical Analysis Deviates from Its Conventional Path The current state of the gold market presents a significant challenge for technical analysts. A look at the charts reveals a clear anomaly. From a technical standpoint, particularly using momentum indicators like the RSI (Relative Strength Index), gold has entered the "overbought" territory on nearly every timeframe, from the 5-minute to the daily chart. Under normal circumstances, this "overbought" status would signal that a major price correction is imminent. However, the gold market has recently deviated significantly from its long-established behaviors and phenomena. Why Traditional Technical Analysis is Failing Despite the market being severely overbought, we are not witnessing any meaningful correction. Traditional "Price Action" signals, such as bearish engulfing candles or divergences, are failing to gain traction against this powerful upward momentum. The only discernible pullbacks are occurring at the end of the week or month, which can be attributed to short-term traders "profit-taking." These brief sell-offs are now what pass for "corrections." Beyond this, significant price revisions are almost non-existent. The primary reason for this is that the market is far more influenced by fundamental factors than by technical indicators at this moment. The One Reliable Tool: The Moving Average Despite this erratic behavior, one technical tool has remained surprisingly effective: the Moving Average (MA). It is evident that as gold's price climbs, it is closely respecting various MA periods. On short-term timeframes (like the 5-minute, 15-minute, or 1-hour), different MA lines are acting as robust "dynamic support." Whenever the price dips to touch an MA line, new buyers become active, pushing the price back up. For the past several months, most popular technical indicators and chart patterns—aside from moving averages—have become largely ineffective in this one-sided market. What Should the Trading Strategy Be? Analyzing the current market conditions, a logical trading strategy is to follow the adage, "The trend is your friend." Since other indicators are failing and the market is in a powerful uptrend, the most prudent approach is to remain in "buy mode," using the moving averages as a guide. Every dip to an MA support level can be viewed as a new buying opportunity. This strategy remains valid until the primary uptrend is decisively broken. When Could a Major Correction Signal Appear? However, buying blindly into this rally is also risky. We must be prepared for signs of a major correction. The first sign of weakness in this powerful uptrend—and a signal for a significant price drop—would likely come when gold closes firmly below its long-term 200-period Moving Average (200 MA) or its primary up-trend line on a higher timeframe, such as the 1-hour (H1) or H4 (H4) chart. Until that happens, any minor declines should be treated merely as "profit-taking" or temporary pullbacks, not as a trend reversal. Conclusion: Fundamentals Are the Core Driver We must remember that regardless of what the technical charts say, this historic rise in gold is backed by extremely powerful "fundamental" reasons. Geopolitical instability, the weakening of the dollar, record-breaking purchases by central banks, and the unpredictable policies of the US (Trump) administration have all solidified gold's status as the ultimate "safe haven." If there is a major change in any of these underlying fundamentals (such as the announcement of a major ceasefire or sudden economic stabilization), gold's fall could be just as rapid and severe as its rise. Therefore, trading based on technical charts alone is insufficient in this market. To make the right move at the right time, we must stay constantly abreast of global news and economic data. The next major move is unlikely to be signaled by a chart pattern; it will most likely be triggered by a "news headline."
TVC:GOLD
by Gold_Trading_Expert
GOLD Is Bearish! Short! Take a look at our analysis for GOLD. Time Frame: 4h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The price is testing a key resistance 4,338.72. Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 4,203.99 level. P.S We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator. When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold. When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
TRADENATION:XAUUSDShort
by SignalProvider
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