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XAUUSD – Short Setup | Fibonacci 50% Target.Analysis: Gold (XAUUSD) is currently trading near 3366. Based on my Fibonacci analysis, I see a potential short opportunity as price retraces toward the 50% Fib level. 📍 Trade Plan Entry: 3366 Stop Loss: 3372.580 Target: 3350.500 (50% Fibonacci level) 🔎 Analysis Price is showing rejection near resistance. Fibonacci retracement tool highlights 3350.500 as the 50% retracement level, which may act as support. This creates a short-term opportunity for scalpers. Note: This is my personal analysis only, not financial advice. Please use proper stop-loss and manage risk carefully. 💬 Support my work by liking, commenting, and sharing this idea if you find it helpful. Regards: Forex Insights Pro.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Forex_Insights_Pro
XAUUSD Weekly Analysis | Supply and Demand Zones + Triangle.Analysis: Gold (XAUUSD) is currently trading near 3365 and the overall market volume has been getting weaker in recent days. This week, I am focusing on key supply & demand zones along with a triangle pattern which may guide the next big move. 🔻 Short Scenario First resistance: 3397 – 3408 → I am looking for short opportunities from this zone. Strong supply: 3430 – 3440 → Price was rejected 4 times here, making it a major short zone. 🔺 Long Scenario First demand/support: 3340 – 3355 → If price respects this level, bullish move expected toward 3397 – 3408. Second support: 3330 – 3325 → If first support breaks, this zone may provide the next bullish base. Triangle Formation: XAUUSD is currently consolidating inside a triangle pattern on my chart. As long as price stays within, I suggest scalping inside the triangle. A confirmed breakout from either side will likely decide the long-term direction. Summary: Short zones: 3397–3408 / 3430–3440 Long zones: 3340–3355 / 3330–3325 Triangle breakout = big move If you like my analysis, please like, comment and share to support me and stay updated with more weekly insights. Regards: Forex Insights Pro.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Forex_Insights_Pro
Gold coils beneath record high, bulls on alertWhether you call it a bull pennant or an ascending triangle, it’s hard to ignore the coiling in gold beneath the April record highs, keeping traders on alert for a potential bullish breakout. The latest bounce off uptrend support, fuelled by Jerome Powell’s dovish pivot at Jackson Hole, has gold within reach of downtrend resistance from those highs, sitting near $3390 this week. A break of the uptrend, especially if matched by a push beyond the $3408 May peak, could draw in fresh bulls targeting a retest of April’s $3500 record. Longs could be established on the break, with stops beneath the downtrend or $3408 depending on entry level. Resistance at $3435 remains an early hurdle, with gold stalling above it on four prior occasions. If the mid-June high near $3450 gives way, there’s little technically blocking a run towards $3500 or beyond. While weekly RSI (14) and MACD hint at waning momentum, the overall signal still marginally favours the topside. Good luck! DS
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by FOREXcom
GOLD Is Bullish! Long! Here is our detailed technical review for GOLD. Time Frame: 2h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is on a crucial zone of demand 3,331.64. The oversold market condition in a combination with key structure gives us a relatively strong bullish signal with goal 3,350.06 level. P.S We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator. When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold. When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
TRADENATION:XAUUSDLong
by SignalProvider
1
Gold looking bearishGold looks bearish in the coming weeks as stronger U.S. economic data is likely to keep the dollar firm and Treasury yields elevated, reducing the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold. At the same time, easing safe-haven demand amid improved risk sentiment and resilient equities may further weigh on prices. From a technical perspective, repeated failures to break above key resistance levels suggest profit-taking and downside momentum could build, setting the stage for a short-term correction.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Ojo-arome
3
XAUUSD: Bullish Opportunity After FOMC and Economic DataHello all traders, this article will help you understand the market context and trends. Yesterday, the FOMC meeting minutes were released, showing broad consensus on maintaining interest rates, which encourages investors to turn to gold as a safe-haven asset , increasing demand for XAUUSD. The higher-than-expected unemployment claims data (235K vs 226K forecast) indicates a weaker labor market, putting downward pressure on the USD and driving gold prices higher. However, the better-than-expected Flash PMI manufacturing index (53.3 vs 49.7 forecast) helped the USD rise slightly, but the impact was minimal. Technical Analysis: XAUUSD is trading in a downtrend channel, but the signals are unclear. Immediate support is at 3,312.000, an important level that has been tested and held. Currently, XAUUSD is near a small resistance zone at 3,353.000, with potential targets at TP1: 3,353.000 and TP2: 3,375.000 . Both EMA (89) and EMA (34) are sloping upward, confirming the strength of the uptrend. Market Strategy: Buy XAUUSD when the price pulls back to the support level at 3,312.000, with targets at 3,353.000 and 3,375.000. Risk Management: Monitor support at 3,312.000. If this level breaks, XAUUSD could correct to 3,270.000. Use a stop-loss below this support level. Do you think gold can continue its upward trend, or will a correction appear?
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Rocky_trade_
2
Gold Deep Dive: Cycles, Correlations, Divergences, SymmetryGold has been in a raging bull market and almost up over 100% since its monthly bullish engulfing candle. Gold sniffing out week monetary policy and rallying on the back of easing global monetary policy. Historically from a trading standpoint, Gold is extremely overbought and could be 4-8 weeks away from a considerable pullback of 15-30% . Many Signals such as symmetrical moves, Monthly overbought RSI, Copper / Gold Divergence, GDX resistance is telling us to use caution and trim long profits. It does seem like gold wants $3500 before it has a reversal back down. We are looking for a liquidity sweep of the ATH as a possible short zone. (Not FA advice) Once gold resets some indicators and allows longer term moving average to catch up it will likely keep pushing but we only for see that in mid to late 2026. If we make a new high....we don't see much upside for the next 3-6 months.
TVC:GOLDShort
by Trading-Capital
1
Gold prices continue to be positive as interest rates cut soon✍️ NOVA hello everyone, Let's comment on gold price next week from 08/25/2025 - 08/29/2025 ⭐️GOLDEN INFORMATION: Gold prices extended their upward momentum on Friday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell struck a dovish tone, warning that “downside risks to the labor market are rising.” XAU/USD is currently trading around $3,371, recovering from an earlier dip to $3,321. In his remarks, Powell suggested there is a “reasonable base case” that tariffs could cause a “one-time” spike in prices. However, he admitted the outlook remains complex, with inflation risks skewed to the upside and employment risks leaning lower—a combination he described as a “challenging situation.” Following Powell’s comments, gold initially surged toward the $3,350 region before climbing to a session high of $3,378. Prices have since eased slightly but remain elevated near current levels. ⭐️Personal comments NOVA: Gold prices increased, positive after the FED chairman voiced that he would cut interest rates in September. 🔥 Technically: Based on the resistance and support areas of the gold price according to the H4 frame, NOVA identifies the important key areas as follows: Resistance: $3387, $3400 , $3417 Support: $3351, $3330 🔥 NOTE: Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well - take the number of lots that match your capital - Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account - Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account - The winner is the one who sticks with the market the longest
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Nova-Scalper
2
XAUUSD Weekly Outlook (25–29 August 2025)Hey team — happy new week! Let’s lock in the XAUUSD Weekly Outlook (Aug 25–29) so we start focused and calm. ✨ 🔸 Macro & News Context This week is loaded with USD catalysts that will shape gold’s direction: Tuesday (26 Aug): Core Durable Goods Orders, CB Consumer Confidence Thursday (28 Aug): Unemployment Claims, Prelim GDP Price Index Friday (29 Aug): Core PCE Price Index (Fed’s preferred inflation gauge) + FOMC Member Waller speaks ⚡️ Wednesday has no major data → expect technical price action mid–week before Thursday–Friday volatility. 🔸 Weekly Structure & Bias Trend: Bullish on HTF; price remains above EMA21/EMA50. Location: Consolidating in premium territory (3300–3350). Liquidity: Buy-side above 3350–3439 wick supply. Sell-side below 3260–3280 (PML). Order Flow: Buyers continue defending mid-range, sellers pressuring highs. Equilibrium until news triggers breakout. 🔸 Key Structural Zones Premium Supply (Resistance): 3350 – 3439 (weekly wick supply). Decision Zone: 3300 – 3320 (mid-range control + EMA confluence). Weekly Demand: 3260 – 3205 (OB + liquidity cluster). Deeper HTF Demand: 2965 – 2590 (not in play unless strong breakdown). 🔸 Target Zones Above 3439 If weekly closes above 3439, price enters clean air. Using fibo extensions from swing 2965 → 3439: 1.272 extension: 3520–3530 (first major upside target). 1.618 extension: 3635–3650 (secondary bullish projection). These are the next realistic institutional levels where gold could face supply pressure. 🔸 Weekly Scenarios Bullish Case 🟢 Break and close above 3350–3439 → extension toward 3520–3530. If macro data weakens USD (soft GDP / lower PCE), momentum accelerates. Bearish Case 🔴 Rejection from 3350–3439 zone + strong US data → pullback into 3300. Break below 3300 reactivates demand at 3260–3205. 🔸 Conclusion & Action Plan This week is range-to-breakout: Above 3439 → upside opens toward 3520–3530. Below 3300 → downside pullback into 3260 demand. News flow (Thu–Fri) will decide the weekly candle close. Patience until the macro catalysts hit — the cleanest sniper entries will come after confirmation. If this was helpful, drop a like, share your bias in the comments, and follow GoldFxMinds for the daily plan next. Let’s trade the facts, not the noise. 💛 Disclosure: Analysis built on Trade Nation feed (Gold Spot · TradeNation data).
TRADENATION:XAUUSD
by GoldFxMinds
3330 Keys to Today's Strategy✏️The weekend gold trading strategy has not changed much. mainly based on the 2 border zones of the box from 3359 to 3330. The weak upward momentum in recent days makes gold easy to fall on the weekend. The 3330 zone is still a very special zone and wait for clear confirmation from the candle to trade to avoid False break. Be careful not to trade against the trend with the BUY signal when the 3330 zone is broken, the reaction of the buyers is very likely to come to the 3303 zone. 📉 Key Levels SELL trigger Break and trading bellow 3330 Target 3285 BUY Trigger Confirmation of the candle closing above 3340 Target 3380 Resistance: 3340-3358-3378 Support: 3330-3304-3285 Leave your comments on the idea. I am happy to read your views.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by VHT_Trader
11
Gold sideways, unclear trend, needs more momentum✏️Gold has reacted at the Trendline and created another decline to Fibonacci 0.382. Buying power is still strong enough to pull H4 back above 3331. It is difficult to determine the next trend of Gold at the moment. Gold is sideways in a fairly narrow range and waiting for more momentum to confirm the trend. The areas of interest are still the Fibonacci zones that cross each hook to reach the next hook. Note that H4 closes below 3331 to confirm a bearish reversal to 3285. 📉 Key Levels BUY trigger: Price breaks the trendline and Fibonacci at 3345. BUY DCA: Breaks 3358 with candle confirmation Target 3400 SELL trigger H4 closes below 3331 Target 3285 Leave your comments on the idea. I am happy to read your views.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by VHT_Trader
8
Gold go back in wide trading range.What is the good trading plan✏️Gold broke the Trendline and returned to the wide trading range from 3330-3360. The accumulation range for many days will continue to be relied on by investors to execute entry points. The correction from the beginning of the Asian session today is aimed at the target of 3332, which is the convergence zone of the lower boundary and the 0.5 fibo retracement of yesterday's wave. In terms of wave structure, if it bounces from this area, it is very likely to create a new uptrend towards 3378. On the contrary, the closing of the H1 candle below 3332 will confirm the return of the Down wave and continue towards the target of 3385 in the shortest time. 📉 Key Levels Buy trigger: retest 3332 with the reaction of the buyers SELL trigger: Break and trading bellow 3332 ( Break bellow trendline) SELL DCA trigger Break 3320 supports the convergence of the trendline and the old break zone Support 3332-3320-3310-3300-3285 Resistance 3358-3378 Leave your comments on the idea. I am happy to read your views.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by VHT_Trader
20
Lingrid | GOLD Clings to Critical Support ZoneOANDA:XAUUSD has been consolidating, moving inside a descending channel after a sharp rejection from resistance. Structure shows a wedge followed by a triangle pattern inside the downward trendline, pointing to compression before a potential breakout. A bullish scenario opens if price bounces from support near 3,315 and breaks above the 3,380 resistance handle. Overall, broader context shows gold locked in a sideways move but coiling into a corrective structure that could fuel a bullish rally. 📉 Key Levels: Buy trigger: Rejection at 3,320 Buy zone: 3,310–3,320 support area. Target: 3,380 then 3,431. Invalidation: Sustained close below 3,270 support. 💡 Risks: Failure to break the downward trendline, keeping bearish momentum intact. Weak buying volume near support, leading to breakdown continuation. Broader macro pressure from USD strength or yields limiting upside momentum. If this idea resonates with you or you have your own opinion, traders, hit the comments. I’m excited to read your thoughts!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Lingrid
34
GOLD ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone, Quick follow up update on our 1H chart idea: After completing both our Bullish target at 3352 and Bearish target at 3327, we saw a lock below 3327 which opened the swing range down towards 3304. Price did drop, but not the full test of 3304 before turning back up. From there, we got the break back above 3327 and another retest of 3352. As expected, price rejected perfectly from 3352, came back down to 3327, and once again gave us a bounce. Now price is heading back up towards 3352. At the moment, price is clearly rangebound between 3327 and 3352. To confirm the next breakout move, we will need to see the EMA5 cross and lock above or below either of these levels. We also need to keep in mind the swing range gap left open yesterday in the 3304 region, which remains a possible target before higher moves continue. So while we continue to buy dips, we must stay mindful that open swing ranges can extend moves further in either direction. Our updated levels and weighted levels allow us to track moves down and then catch the bounces up, as we’ve been doing. We will continue to buy dips from our support levels, targeting 20 to 40 pips per bounce. As stated before, every level structure we share gives that range consistently, and the swing ranges give even bigger moves than the weighted levels. BULLISH TARGET 3352 - DONE EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3352 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGETS 3374 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3374 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 3398 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3398 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 3422 BEARISH TARGETS 3327 - DONE EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3327 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE 3304 3281 As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it! Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
9
# XAUUSD Comprehensive Technical Analysis# XAUUSD Comprehensive Technical Analysis & Geopolitical Strategy **Current Position**: $3,371.95 (Aug 23, 2025, 12:50 AM UTC+4) * 🎯 Executive Summary Gold at historic levels with exceptional YoY performance (+34.33%) driven by geopolitical uncertainty and central bank accumulation. Technical analysis suggests potential continuation toward $3,500-$3,600, but near-term consolidation in $3,200-$3,500 range likely amid conflicting fundamental forces. --- # 🌍 GEOPOLITICAL & FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP * **Central Bank Demand Revolution** *# Unprecedented Accumulation *Historical Context**: Central banks accumulated >1,000t annually for three consecutive years *Previous Decade Average**: 400-500t annually *Reserve Composition**: Gold now 20% of global official reserves (highest in decades) *Leadership**: China, India, Turkey leading dollar diversification *# Strategic Implications *De-dollarization**: Emerging markets reducing USD exposure *Reserve Safety**: Geopolitical uncertainty driving safe-haven demand *Monetary Policy**: Central banks hedging against currency debasement *Long-term Support**: Structural bid for gold reserves * **Geopolitical Risk Matrix** *# Active Conflict Zones *Russia-Ukraine**: Ongoing military operations affecting energy/grain markets *Israel-Iran**: Regional tensions creating safe-haven flows *US-China Relations**: Trade tensions under Trump administration *Nuclear Rhetoric**: Elevated tensions affecting risk sentiment *# Economic Policy Uncertainty *Federal Reserve Policy**: Rate cut expectations vs. inflation concerns *Trump Administration**: Trade wars, tariff policies, geopolitical approach *Currency Wars**: Competitive devaluation risks *Fiscal Deficits**: Growing debt burdens supporting gold demand * **Monetary Policy Environment** *# Fed Policy Divergence *Market Expectations**: Rate cuts anticipated but not delivered *Inflation Trajectory**: Persistent above-target pressures *Dollar Strength**: Export competitiveness concerns *Real Rates**: Negative real yields supporting gold *# Global Central Bank Coordination *ECB Policy**: Restrictive stance limiting Euro strength *Bank of Japan**: Intervention concerns in FX markets *People's Bank of China**: Gradual RMB internationalization *Swiss National Bank**: Gold reserve management --- # 📊 MULTI-TIMEFRAME TECHNICAL ANALYSIS * **INTRADAY ANALYSIS (5M - 4H)** *# **5-Minute Timeframe Analysis** ** Candlestick Patterns *Current Formation**: Consolidation after recent rejection from highs *Key Patterns**: *Hammer below $3,350**: Bullish reversal signal *Shooting Star above $3,390**: Distribution warning *Doji near $3,370**: Indecision at current levels *Volume Analysis**: Lighter volume on pullbacks (bullish) ** Technical Indicators (5M) *RSI(14)**: 52-58 (Neutral to slightly bullish) *VWAP**: $3,368 ± 15 (Dynamic pivot level) *Bollinger Bands**: Middle band at $3,365, slight contraction *EMA(20)**: $3,362 (immediate support) ** 5M Scalping Strategy *Long Entry**: Break above $3,380 with volume *Stop Loss**: Below $3,355 (25 point risk) *Target 1**: $3,395 (R:R 1:0.6) *Target 2**: $3,410 (R:R 1:1.4) *# **15-Minute Timeframe Analysis** ** Harmonic Patterns *Active Pattern**: Potential Gartley completion at $3,320-$3,340 *ABCD Structure**: Current D-leg targeting $3,420-$3,450 *Fibonacci Confluence**: - 61.8% retracement at $3,345 - 78.6% extension at $3,415 - 100% extension at $3,465 ** Wyckoff Analysis (15M) *Phase**: Testing after accumulation *Character**: Professional money accumulating weakness *Volume Pattern**: Higher volume on advances *Next Phase**: Markup continuation expected above $3,380 ** 15M Position Strategy *Support Entry**: $3,340-$3,360 zone *Stop Loss**: Below $3,320 (20-40 point risk) *Target 1**: $3,420 (R:R 1:1.5) *Target 2**: $3,465 (R:R 1:2.6) *# **30-Minute Timeframe Analysis** ** Elliott Wave Structure *Primary Count**: Wave 5 of (3) in progress - Wave 1: $3,200 → $3,350 - Wave 2: $3,350 → $3,290 - Wave 3: $3,290 → $3,390 (extended) - Wave 4: $3,390 → $3,340 (current) - Wave 5 Target: $3,450-$3,500 ** Alternative Elliott Count *Wave (5) of larger degree**: Targeting $3,500-$3,600 *Correction Risk**: If below $3,300, deeper pullback likely *Extension Scenario**: Above $3,400 suggests acceleration ** W.D. Gann Analysis (30M) *Square of 9**: - $3,364 = 58² (current area) - $3,481 = 59² (next major resistance) - $3,600 = 60² (psychological target) *Time Theory**: Next major window Aug 27-29 *Angle Theory**: 1x1 Gann line at $3,300 (major support) *# **1-Hour Timeframe Analysis** ** Ichimoku Kinko Hyo *Tenkan-sen (9)**: $3,375 (resistance level) *Kijun-sen (26)**: $3,350 (key support) *Kumo Cloud**: $3,280-$3,320 (support zone) *Chikou Span**: Above price action (bullish) *Future Cloud**: Bullish configuration maintained ** Moving Average Convergence *SMA(20)**: $3,358 *EMA(20)**: $3,365 *SMA(50)**: $3,340 *EMA(50)**: $3,345 *SMA(200)**: $3,200 *Alignment**: All bullish, strong trend structure ** 1H Swing Setup *Bull Flag**: Breakout above $3,385 *Entry**: $3,390 with volume confirmation *Stop**: $3,340 (50 point risk) *Target 1**: $3,450 (R:R 1:1.2) *Target 2**: $3,500 (R:R 1:2.2) *# **4-Hour Timeframe Analysis** ** Advanced Pattern Recognition *Ascending Triangle**: Base at $3,300, resistance at $3,390 *Cup & Handle**: Potential handle formation *Volume Profile**: High volume node at $3,350 *Critical Levels**: *Major Resistance**: $3,390-$3,420 *Key Support**: $3,320-$3,350 *Major Support**: $3,250-$3,300 ** 4H Position Strategy *Pattern**: Bullish continuation setup *Entry Zone**: $3,340-$3,370 on pullbacks *Stop Loss**: Below $3,280 (60-90 point risk) *Target 1**: $3,450 (R:R 1:1) *Target 2**: $3,550 (R:R 1:2.2) *Target 3**: $3,650 (R:R 1:3.4) --- # 📈 SWING ANALYSIS (Daily - Monthly) * **Daily Timeframe** *# Elliott Wave Daily Structure *Supercycle**: Wave (5) from 2008 financial crisis lows *Cycle**: Wave 5 of (5) in mature bull market phase *Primary**: Wave (3) of 5 targeting $3,800-$4,000 *Current Status**: Mid-stage advance with correction potential *# Historical Context Analysis *All-Time High**: $3,390 area recent peak *Support Structure**: $3,200-$3,300 major zone *Resistance Hierarchy**: $3,400, $3,500, $3,600 *Trend Integrity**: Intact since 2022 lows at $1,620 *# Wyckoff Daily Assessment *Phase**: Continued markup with periodic testing *Accumulation**: Major base building 2022-2023 *Distribution**: No signs of professional selling yet *Volume**: Institutional participation on advances *# Gann Daily Projections *Annual Cycle**: Q3-Q4 traditionally strong for gold *Master Time Cycles**: 7-year cycle supportive through 2026 *Price Squares**: - $3,600 = 60² (major target) - $3,844 = 62² (extended projection) - $4,096 = 64² (maximum extension) * **Weekly Timeframe** *# Long-term Elliott Wave *Grand Supercycle**: Wave (V) from 1970s lows *Supercycle**: Final wave of multi-decade advance *Target Range**: $4,000-$5,000 (secular peak) *Timeline**: Peak expected 2025-2027 *# Weekly Harmonic Analysis *Shark Pattern**: Completion target $3,800-$4,000 *Butterfly Extension**: Maximum at $4,200-$4,500 *ABCD Projections**: 1.618 extension at $3,750 *# Central Bank Accumulation Impact *Structural Support**: Continuous buying below $3,000 *Price Floor**: Central bank demand creating higher lows *Momentum Shifts**: Reduced selling pressure on pullbacks *Long-term Trajectory**: Upward bias maintained * **Monthly Timeframe** *# Macro Structural Analysis *Primary Degree**: Final wave of secular bull market *Completion Criteria**: $4,000-$5,000 target zone *Post-Peak Risk**: Significant correction to $2,000-$2,500 *Timeline**: Secular peak likely 2025-2027 *# Monthly Technical Indicators *RSI**: 70+ (Elevated but sustainable in bull market) *MACD**: Bullish momentum with minor divergence *Volume**: Central bank buying supporting structure *Seasonal**: August-December historically strong --- # 🎯 CRITICAL LEVELS & TARGETS * **Immediate Levels (24-48 Hours)** *# Resistance Framework *R1**: $3,390-$3,400 (immediate ceiling) *R2**: $3,420-$3,440 (psychological resistance) *R3**: $3,480-$3,500 (Gann square resistance) *R4**: $3,550-$3,600 (major target zone) *# Support Structure *S1**: $3,350-$3,360 (immediate floor) *S2**: $3,320-$3,340 (key retracement) *S3**: $3,280-$3,300 (major support) *S4**: $3,200-$3,250 (critical support) * **Short-term Projections (1-2 Weeks)** *# Bullish Scenario (60% Probability) *Target 1**: $3,450-$3,500 *Target 2**: $3,550-$3,600 *Target 3**: $3,650-$3,700 *Catalysts**: Geopolitical escalation, Fed dovishness *# Consolidation Scenario (30% Probability) *Range**: $3,200-$3,500 for 2-4 weeks *Support**: Central bank buying on weakness *Resistance**: Profit-taking at highs *Resolution**: Eventually bullish *# Bearish Scenario (10% Probability) *Target 1**: $3,100-$3,200 *Target 2**: $2,950-$3,050 *Catalysts**: Fed hawkishness, geopolitical resolution * **Medium-term Outlook (1-3 Months)** *# Primary Scenario *Wave Target**: $3,800-$4,000 *Timeline**: Q4 2025 *Drivers**: Central bank demand, currency debasement *Resistance**: $3,600 psychological level --- # 📅 DAILY TRADING STRATEGIES WITH GEOPOLITICAL OVERLAY * **MONDAY, AUGUST 26, 2025** *# Market Opening Context *Asian Session**: China PMI data impact on risk sentiment *Geopolitical Overnight**: Monitor Middle East developments *Dollar Dynamics**: USD strength/weakness affecting gold *Central Bank Communications**: Any policy signals *# Opening Scenarios *Gap Up**: Above $3,385 on safe-haven flows *Gap Down**: Below $3,350 on risk-on sentiment *Neutral Open**: Continuation of Friday's close level *# **Primary Trading Strategies** ** Setup 1: Geopolitical Premium Play *Catalyst**: Overnight tensions escalation *Entry**: Gap up fade to $3,370-$3,380 *Stop**: $3,340 (30-40 point risk) *Target 1**: $3,420 (R:R 1:1.3) *Target 2**: $3,465 (R:R 1:2.4) ** Setup 2: Risk-On Reversal *Catalyst**: De-escalation news or risk-on sentiment *Entry**: Break below $3,350 with volume *Stop**: $3,375 (25 point risk) *Target 1**: $3,320 (R:R 1:1.2) *Target 2**: $3,290 (R:R 1:2.4) ** Setup 3: Range Development *Consolidation**: $3,350-$3,390 range *Buy Zone**: $3,355-$3,365 *Sell Zone**: $3,380-$3,390 *Stops**: Outside range by $15-20 *# Risk Management Monday *Position Size**: Standard risk given established trend *News Monitoring**: Real-time geopolitical updates *Time Stops**: Avoid holding through major announcements --- * **TUESDAY, AUGUST 27, 2025** *# Technical Focus *Gann Time Window**: Major reversal potential *Elliott Wave**: Critical juncture for wave progression *Central Bank Activity**: Monitor official sector buying *# **Strategic Approaches** ** Setup 1: Gann Time Reversal *Bullish Reversal**: From $3,340-$3,360 support *Entry**: Hammer/doji confirmation *Stop**: $3,320 (20-40 point risk) *Target**: $3,450-$3,500 (R:R 1:3) ** Setup 2: Breakout Acceleration *Above $3,395**: Momentum continuation *Entry**: $3,400 with volume >150% average *Stop**: $3,365 (35 point risk) *Target 1**: $3,465 (R:R 1:1.9) *Target 2**: $3,520 (R:R 1:3.4) ** Setup 3: Failed Breakout Fade *False Break**: Above $3,395 without follow-through *Entry**: Return below $3,380 *Stop**: $3,400 (20 point risk) *Target**: $3,340-$3,320 (R:R 1:2) --- * **WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 28, 2025** *# Mid-Week Dynamics *Federal Reserve**: Any policy communications *Economic Data**: US GDP, inflation expectations *Dollar Index**: Impact on gold pricing *# **Strategy Implementation** ** Setup 1: Fed Policy Response *Dovish Fed**: Bullish for gold - Target: $3,500-$3,600 - Strategy: Buy pullbacks aggressively *Hawkish Fed**: Headwind for gold - Target: $3,250-$3,300 - Strategy: Short rallies, defensive ** Setup 2: Economic Data Trading *Strong Data**: Dollar strength, gold weakness *Weak Data**: Safe-haven flows to gold *Mixed Data**: Range-bound continuation ** Setup 3: Technical Pattern Completion *Triangle Resolution**: Direction determined by volume *Measured Move**: Pattern height projected *Failure**: Opposite direction trade --- * **THURSDAY, AUGUST 29, 2025** *# Pre-Weekend Positioning *Institutional Flow**: Month-end adjustments approaching *Geopolitical Risk**: Weekend headline sensitivity *Options Activity**: Expiration impact on volatility *# **Advanced Strategies** ** Setup 1: Monthly Close Positioning *Above $3,400**: Bullish monthly signal *Below $3,300**: Bearish monthly warning *Volume Confirmation**: Essential for validity ** Setup 2: Geopolitical Hedge *Rising Tensions**: Safe-haven premium increase *Conflict Resolution**: Risk-on gold selling *Nuclear Rhetoric**: Maximum safe-haven demand ** Setup 3: Central Bank Flow *Official Sector Buying**: Support on weakness *Intervention**: Price floor establishment *Accumulation**: Long-term structural support --- * **FRIDAY, AUGUST 30, 2025** *# Monthly Close Significance *Long-term Charts**: Critical for technical analysis *Institutional Rebalancing**: End-of-month flows *Weekend Risk**: Geopolitical headline exposure *# **End-of-Week Execution** ** Setup 1: Monthly Close Play *Strong Close >$3,400**: September bullish setup *Weak Close <$3,300**: Defensive positioning *Neutral Close**: Range continuation likely ** Setup 2: Weekend Risk Management *High Tensions**: Reduce exposure, take profits *Stable Environment**: Hold strategic positions *Uncertain News**: Hedge with options if available ** Setup 3: Seasonal Positioning *Q4 Strength**: Historical gold performance *Election Cycle**: Political uncertainty premium *Year-End**: Institutional portfolio adjustments --- # 🌍 GEOPOLITICAL SCENARIO PLANNING * **Scenario 1: Conflict Escalation (35% Probability)** *# Triggers *Nuclear Threats**: US-Russia rhetoric intensification *Direct Confrontation**: Israel-Iran military action *Trade War**: US-China comprehensive tariffs *# Gold Impact *Target**: $3,800-$4,200 (Safe-haven surge) *Timeline**: 2-8 weeks *Volume**: Massive institutional flows *Correlation**: Inverse to risk assets *# Trading Strategy *Long Bias**: Aggressive accumulation on pullbacks *Leverage**: Moderate use appropriate *Hedging**: Unnecessary in safe-haven environment *Duration**: Hold through volatility * **Scenario 2: Diplomatic Resolution (25% Probability)** *# Catalysts *Peace Negotiations**: Ukraine conflict progress *Trade Agreements**: US-China détente *Nuclear De-escalation**: Diplomatic breakthrough *# Market Impact *Gold Target**: $2,800-$3,200 (Risk-on selling) *Timeline**: 1-3 months *Dollar Strength**: Risk currency outperformance *Central Bank Buying**: Continued but reduced impact *# Trading Approach *Defensive**: Reduce exposure on rallies *Range Trading**: $3,000-$3,500 likely range *Sector Rotation**: Into risk assets *Patience**: Wait for re-entry opportunities * **Scenario 3: Monetary Policy Shift (25% Probability)** *# Fed Policy Pivot *Rate Cuts**: Economic weakness forces dovishness *QE Resumption**: Financial stability concerns *Currency Debasement**: Competitive devaluation *# Gold Implications *Target**: $4,000-$5,000 (Currency debasement premium) *Real Rates**: Negative territory supportive *Dollar Weakness**: Gold strength in all currencies *Central Banks**: Accelerated accumulation *# Strategy Framework *Maximum Allocation**: Full position sizing *Long Duration**: Multi-month holding period *Currency Hedging**: International exposure *Physical Allocation**: Consider direct ownership * **Scenario 4: Status Quo (15% Probability)** *# Stable Environment *Contained Conflicts**: No major escalation/resolution *Fed Patience**: Data-dependent gradualism *Trade Stability**: Managed tensions *# Gold Behavior *Range**: $3,200-$3,600 consolidation *Central Bank Support**: Continued accumulation *Seasonal Patterns**: Q4 strength likely *Volatility**: Moderate, tradeable ranges *# Tactical Approach *Range Trading**: Buy support, sell resistance *Time Decay**: Options selling strategies *Correlation Trading**: Relative value opportunities *Scalping**: Intraday opportunity focus --- # ⚠️ COMPREHENSIVE RISK MANAGEMENT * **Geopolitical Risk Framework** *# News Flow Monitoring *Real-time Sources**: Reuters, Bloomberg, social media *Official Channels**: Government communications *Military Developments**: Defense department updates *Economic Policy**: Central bank communications *# Position Sizing Adaptation *High Tension**: 150-200% normal allocation (safe haven) *Moderate Risk**: 100-150% normal size *Low Risk**: 75-100% standard allocation *Resolution Risk**: 25-50% defensive sizing * **Technical Risk Management** *# Stop Loss Framework *Trend Following**: ATR-based stops *Support/Resistance**: Technical level stops *Time-Based**: Intraday management *News-Driven**: Wider stops during events *# Profit Management *Scale Out**: Systematic profit taking *Trailing Stops**: Protect gains *Re-entry**: Pullback accumulation *Long-term Holdings**: Strategic core position * **Correlation Management** *# Cross-Asset Relationships *Dollar Index**: Primary inverse correlation *Real Rates**: Negative correlation key *Risk Assets**: Safe-haven inverse relationship *Commodities**: Energy correlation during crises *# Portfolio Context *Hedging**: Against equity exposure *Diversification**: Currency debasement protection *Insurance**: Geopolitical risk premium *Speculation**: Technical momentum trading --- # 📊 PERFORMANCE TRACKING FRAMEWORK * **Trade Quality Assessment** *# Setup Classification *A-Grade**: Multiple theory convergence (>80% win rate) *B-Grade**: Strong technical setup (65-75% win rate) *C-Grade**: Moderate conviction (50-60% win rate) *Avoid D-Grade**: Weak setup quality *# Risk-Adjusted Returns *Sharpe Ratio**: Risk-adjusted performance *Maximum Drawdown**: Peak-to-trough losses *Profit Factor**: Gross profit/gross loss *Win Rate**: Percentage successful trades * **Market Regime Recognition** *# Bull Market Characteristics *Central Bank Buying**: Continuous accumulation *Geopolitical Premium**: Safe-haven flows *Currency Debasement**: Monetary policy impact *Technical Strength**: Higher highs/lows pattern *# Correction Signs *Volume Divergence**: Institutional selling *Geopolitical Resolution**: Risk-on rotation *Fed Hawkishness**: Rate hike cycles *Technical Breakdown**: Key support failure --- # 🚨 CRITICAL DECISION POINTS * **Immediate Technical Triggers (24-48 Hours)** *# Bullish Catalysts *$3,395 Break**: Acceleration to $3,500+ *Volume Surge**: >200% average confirms breakout *Geopolitical Escalation**: Safe-haven premium spike *# Bearish Warnings *$3,320 Break**: Correction to $3,200-$3,250 *Volume Divergence**: Distribution signals *Risk-On Flows**: Geopolitical resolution * **Weekly Watchpoints** *# Elliott Wave Validation *Above $3,450**: Wave extension continuing *Below $3,280**: Correction wave beginning *Central Bank Activity**: Official sector buying *# Geopolitical Developments *Conflict Escalation**: Maximum safe-haven demand *Diplomatic Progress**: Risk-on headwinds *Fed Communications**: Policy trajectory impact * **Monthly Considerations** *# Seasonal Factors *Q4 Strength**: Historical gold performance *Election Cycle**: Political uncertainty premium *Year-End**: Institutional rebalancing *# Structural Themes *Central Bank Accumulation**: Continued demand *Currency Wars**: Competitive debasement *Debt Sustainability**: Fiscal crisis potential --- # 🎯 STRATEGIC FRAMEWORK SUMMARY * **Base Case (Geopolitical Uncertainty - 40%)** *Range**: $3,200-$3,600 for 2-4 months *Strategy**: Range trading with long bias *Central Banks**: Continued accumulation support * **Bull Case (Escalation/Debasement - 35%)** *Target**: $3,800-$4,200 by Q1 2026 *Strategy**: Maximum allocation, momentum following *Catalysts**: Conflict escalation, Fed dovishness * **Bear Case (Resolution/Hawkishness - 25%)** *Target**: $2,800-$3,200 correction *Strategy**: Defensive positioning, range trading *Timeline**: 2-6 months consolidation --- **⚡ EXECUTION PRIORITY**: XAUUSD at $3,371.95 represents exceptional fundamental and technical positioning. Central bank accumulation provides structural support while geopolitical uncertainty creates tactical opportunities. Favor long bias with systematic profit-taking, using pullbacks to $3,320-$3,350 for accumulation. Monitor geopolitical developments and Fed communications as primary market drivers. The convergence of safe-haven demand, currency debasement concerns, and technical momentum creates compelling long-term bullish framework despite near-term consolidation potential. For those interested in further developing their trading skills based on these types of analyses, consider exploring the mentoring program offered by Shunya dot Trade.(world wide web shunya dot trade) I welcome your feedback on this analysis, as it will inform and enhance my future work. Regards, Shunya.Trade world wide web shunya dot trade ⚠️ Disclaimer: This post is educational content and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or trading recommendations. The views expressed here are based on technical analysis and are shared solely for informational purposes. The stock market is subject to risks, including capital loss, and readers should exercise due diligence before investing. We do not take responsibility for decisions made based on this content. Consult a certified financial advisor for personalized guidance.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD
by sunya
Key Levels for the Week 25-29/08/2025 ∷Gold∷🐍 Key Levels Overview for the Week🐍 __________________________ BreakoutUpZone🐂3421🐂 3415 3407 3398 3390 3381 3372 🏛3371-3394🏛 3377 3382 3388 BreakoutDownZone🐻3357🐻 3376 3366 3362 __________________________ Upper Support-Resistance🔀 3409 3429 3442 3469 3480 3492 3503 3513 3524 3535 3545 Mids∷∷∷ 3377 3393 3402 3410 3419 3427 3435 3453 3483 Lower Support-Resistance🔀 3270 3318 3328 3339 3350 3361 3371 3384 3401 3420 3452
TVC:GOLD
by spacecraft
Gold Soars! Buy Opportunity After Fed's Rate Cut Hint!In just yesterday's session, gold surged by +32.520 USD (+0.97%) , equivalent to more than 320 pips . A shocking rise caught the market off guard. The cause was Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole conference, where he hinted at the possibility of an interest rate cut as soon as September. This dovish message weakened the USD , reduced bond yields, and triggered a flow of money into safe-haven assets like gold. Meanwhile, with calls for interest rate cuts from the Trump administration and concerns about an economic slowdown, gold is likely to rise in the future. President Trump criticized the Fed and called for aggressive rate cuts to boost the economy. If this policy is implemented, the USD could weaken further, making gold an even more attractive investment option. Technical analysis: Traders may consider the next targets as 3,410 USD (TP1) and 3,434 USD (TP2). With EMA (89 and 34) indicators supporting the uptrend, investors might consider buying around 3,370 USD if gold experiences a slight short-term pullback, expecting the price to continue rising if macroeconomic factors remain favorable. In conclusion, all factors are currently supporting gold's uptrend. We will continue to monitor developments in the coming days, particularly decisions from the Fed and global economic factors that may impact gold.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Rocky_trade_
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