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GOLDMINI trade ideas

GOLD: High-Risk Setup Ahead of Jackson HoleGOLD: High-Risk Setup Ahead of Jackson Hole Gold is currently in a tricky spot. While the price action looks messy, I believe the bearish trend could continue soon. Over the past few days, gold has been forming a larger corrective pattern — mostly bearish, but not very clear. The market is now watching the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole event closely, especially Fed Chair Powell’s speech, for clues on future interest rate moves. From current levels, gold might rise again to retest the red zone near 3350. But there's also a risk it could drop sharply, trapping long positions from this week’s false breakout. I’m waiting more for a bearish move, though a final push higher could happen before the drop resumes. Overall, trading gold right now is very risky. You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day
FX:XAUUSD
by KlejdiCuni
9
Gold preserves #3,352.80 benchmark as expectedTechnical analysis: Gold is pricing in strong downswing, mostly below it’s Daily chart’s Support now turned in Resistance (Xau-Usd Spot prices at #3,342.80), which Technically leans more to the Bearish side. Investors are waiting for core economic catalysts, besides today’s semi-Bearish session, as Bond Yields far from crisis (seen last fractal) arises and comfort Sellers in their intent, as Gold is following as well Bond Yields movements for #6-consecutive sessions now. DX is Trading again on the same pattern (many similarities with standard fractal started on March #28), creating High’s which are later Sold, which local High’s can turn Gold even Lower (especially since the equities are posting a strong rally), but that hasn't happened so far, leading me to believe that the DX weighs more on Gold than Bond Yields at the moment, and which is main correlating asset is answer which is not easy to give. Hence, as discussed, keep track of the DX to make Short-term entries on Gold, as the Medium-term remains Bearish (solid Descending Channel on the Daily chart should form once Price-action kickstarts the #4th decline). In my opinion, #3,322.80 should be tested and aggressively invalidated on one hit / try and should deliver additional Selling entry towards #3,300.80 psychological benchmark / however on the other side, #3,352.80 benchmark presents strong Resistance zone (far away) from current Bearish variance and as I mentioned many times throughout my recent remarks, as long as Gold is not closing the market above #3,352.80 benchmark, Gold will remain under pressure. My position: I am Selling every High's on Gold lately and Bought #3,322.80 - #3,327.80 local Bottom many times throughout yesterday's session. My practical suggestion is to continue Trading the Neutral Rectangle as long as it lasts #3,322.80 - #3,348.80.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by goldenBear88
1
Bullish bounce?The Gold (XAU/USD) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance, which acts as a pullback resistance. Pivot: 3,307.62 1st Support: 3,267.80 1st Resistance: 3,350.96 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by ICmarkets
Latest Gold Price Update👋Hello, what do you think about the trend of OANDA:XAUUSD ? In the previous sessions, gold regained momentum, and at the time of writing, the precious metal is still trying to maintain its recovery, trading around 3337 USD. Gold's recent recovery was marked by key economic news, including the PMI and the jobless claims data from the U.S. Specifically, U.S. economic data showed mixed results, with initial jobless claims higher than expected at 235,000, signaling weakness in the labor market, which could push gold prices higher. The preliminary PMI for manufacturing came in at 53.3, higher than the previous 49.8 and surpassing the forecast of 49.7, indicating expansion in the manufacturing sector. However, its long-term effects remain to be seen. The Flash Services PMI came in at 55.4, higher than the forecast of 54.2 but lower than the previous 55.7, indicating growth in services but not as robust. Overall, while the manufacturing and services sectors show recovery, the weak unemployment data continues to raise concerns about the economy, and gold is seizing the opportunity. Technically, gold successfully broke through the downward trendline and formed a high at 3350 USD before adjusting. Two new support levels have formed, playing a crucial role for XAUUSD at this point. If the positive momentum continues, resistance targets at 3350 - 3357 and 3370 USD are key levels to watch. Looking ahead: Another significant event to watch is Fed Chairman's speech at Jackson Hole today. His comments on future interest rates will decide the next move for both gold and the U.S. dollar. Stay alert! Do you think gold can maintain above the two support levels until the end of the session? Leave your thoughts below 👇
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Kevinn_Nguyen
24
XAUUSD – Key Levels To Watch? What Happend Next🟡 XAUUSD – Key Levels To Watch 🔥 What Happend Next Gold is currently trading inside a buying zone (3380 – 3400) but facing rejection. Market structure is still holding higher lows, which keeps the bigger trend bullish, but short-term price action suggests a possible retracement move. Resistance Zone: 3420 – 3440 (strong supply, previous rejection) Key Support: 3330 – 3320 (major demand, higher low base) Immediate Target: 3340 – 3360 (if rejection continues) 📉 Short-term bias: bearish correction toward 3340 – 3360 📈 Swing bias: bullish as long as 3330 – 3320 holds 🔑 My View: I’ll be watching how price reacts around 3330 – 3320. Holding this level could trigger the next bullish leg toward 3420 – 3440. Losing it opens the door for deeper downside into 3280.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Mentor_Michael03
Gold Analysis – Bullish Breakout Setup Gold has broken out of a symmetrical triangle pattern to the upside, signaling potential bullish continuation. Price has retested the breakout zone (trendline + demand zone) and is now showing strong bullish momentum. Key Levels: - Entry Zone: Breakout retest area (highlighted in blue) - TP: Previous supply zone (marked above) - SL: Below trendline and demand zone Bias: Bullish Reason: Trendline breakout + demand zone confluence + market structure shift. Monitoring price action closely for confirmation and continuation towards the higher supply zone. #Gold #XAUUSD #Breakout #SmartMoney #TechnicalAnalysis #Trendline #PriceAction
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDLong
by tspjre
2
Gold at Key Resistance – Rising Wedge Signals Potential Reversal🔎 Gold (XAUUSD) Technical Outlook Current Price: $3,383 Key Resistance Zone: $3,390 – $3,404 (Bearish Orderblock) Key Support Zone: $3,290 – $3,300 (Bullish Orderblock) 📌 Chart Observations: Price is trading inside a Rising Wedge, a bearish pattern that often signals a potential reversal. Market is approaching a strong supply/orderblock zone around $3,390–$3,404. Sellers are likely to step in here. If the wedge breaks down, the first major downside target aligns with the Bullish Orderblock near $3,295. However, if bulls manage to break above $3,405, momentum could shift and open the way for further upside. ⚖️ Trading Plan: Bearish Bias below $3,390–$3,404 resistance zone. Target: $3,295 (Bull OB). Invalidation: Close above $3,405. 📉 Rising wedge + orderblock resistance = High probability short setup. 📈 Breakout above resistance = Shift to bullish continuation.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Yugal
GOLD ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone, Quick follow up update on our 1H chart idea: After completing both our Bullish target at 3352 and Bearish target at 3327, we saw a lock below 3327 which opened the swing range down towards 3304. Price did drop, but not the full test of 3304 before turning back up. From there, we got the break back above 3327 and another retest of 3352. As expected, price rejected perfectly from 3352, came back down to 3327, and once again gave us a bounce. Now price is heading back up towards 3352. At the moment, price is clearly rangebound between 3327 and 3352. To confirm the next breakout move, we will need to see the EMA5 cross and lock above or below either of these levels. We also need to keep in mind the swing range gap left open yesterday in the 3304 region, which remains a possible target before higher moves continue. So while we continue to buy dips, we must stay mindful that open swing ranges can extend moves further in either direction. Our updated levels and weighted levels allow us to track moves down and then catch the bounces up, as we’ve been doing. We will continue to buy dips from our support levels, targeting 20 to 40 pips per bounce. As stated before, every level structure we share gives that range consistently, and the swing ranges give even bigger moves than the weighted levels. BULLISH TARGET 3352 - DONE EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3352 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGETS 3374 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3374 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 3398 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3398 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 3422 BEARISH TARGETS 3327 - DONE EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3327 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE 3304 3281 As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it! Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
9
Gold in a falling wedge pattern: Ready for a strong ride upPrice on XAUUSD looks quite interesting right now, this recent has brought a new look to it, as it's forming a more optimistic pattern. The most recent interaction here is particularly interesting, because it's already showing early signs of recovering and decreased bearish momentum. What may follow: low-volume candles suggesting exhaustion and potential upwards. My target would be toward 3360. If this move plays out, it will make a beautiful play of a narrative that’s we've been following for Gold. This setup is so compelling. It’s a story being shown, but still requires patience and confirmation. Though a scenario for more downside is possible as we have a clear support zone below. Still, I am taking the side for more upside because of the pattern forming here.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TrendDiva
40
Today's Gold Price: Go long between $3350 and $3360Today's Gold Price: Go long between $3350 and $3360 Technical Analysis: Monday: First, according to the market chart, gold remains in a broad consolidation pattern today. Macro Structure: $3450 is the upper resistance level $3250 is the lower support level This macro range has fluctuated repeatedly over the past three months. Four-Hour Chart: Resistance: Above $3372/$3370/$3380/$3400 Support: Below $3360/$3358/$3350/$3340 Gold prices are showing some signs of fatigue after testing around $3375, and a technical correction is possible. If a correction occurs, initial support is $3355, followed by $3338. If it can successfully break through $3375, it could potentially test the $3388-$3408 range. Specific Strategy: Option 1: Sell High Sell Price: 3370/3365 Stop-Loss Price: 3376 Target Price: 3358/3353 Option 2: Buy Low Buy Price: 3360 Stop-Loss Price: 3350 Target Price: 3385 Buy Price: 3350 Stop-Loss Price: 3340 Target Price: 3375 Key Events: US August Non-Farm Payroll Report (released on September 5): Key data for assessing the state of the US labor market. US August CPI Data (released on September 11): An important indicator of inflation. September Federal Reserve FOMC Meeting (September 16-17): The outcome of the meeting and the subsequent press conference will be the focus of market attention. Geopolitical Developments: Particularly the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and important developments in the Middle East. Short-term (1-2 weeks): Market volatility is likely to continue. Consider initiating a small long position near the $3,350 support level (with a stop-loss below $3,340). Target price is the $3,375-3,400 area. If resistance is found near the $3,400-3,420 resistance level, consider initiating a small short position.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Louisa-2025
THE KOG REPORT - Jackson Hole Pt 2Jackson Hole 2025: Here’s what to expect from the 2025 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, held August 21–23 in Jackson Hole, Wyoming: Event Overview & Theme • The 48th annual symposium is hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City from August 21 to 23, 2025. • The theme is “Labour Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy.” It focuses on structural changes like aging populations, fertility declines, declining labour mobility, and the evolving role of AI in labour markets. • The full agenda will be released on Thursday evening, August 21, with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech scheduled for Friday morning (U.S. time): 10 a.m. EDT / 8 a.m. MDT. Key Participants & Format • A select group of around 120 invitees will attend, including central bankers, policymakers, academics, and journalists. • Formats include research paper presentations, panels, Q&As, and the keynote address. All presentations and transcripts will be published online during and after the event What to Watch For 1. Powell’s Speech & Policy Signals Powell’s keynote—titled "Economic Outlook and Framework Review"—is expected to outline possible interest-rate decisions, update the Federal Reserve’s policy framework, and respond to critiques that its 2020 approach delayed necessary responses to inflation. This is likely one of his most consequential speeches, delivered amid mounting political pressure, internal Fed disagreements, and a contested labour market environment. 2. Global Central Bankers & International Engagement Notable international participants include ECB President Christine Lagarde and likely the Bank of England’s Andrew Bailey, expected to join panels on Saturday. Their contributions will underscore the symposium’s global reach and offer comparative perspectives on monetary policy challenges. 3. Market Expectations & Reactions Markets anticipate a 25 basis-point rate cut in September, with several sources placing the probability at ~85%. Simultaneously, investor caution is elevated due to geopolitical tensions—especially around Trump’s influence, Ukraine talks, and tech policy developments. 4. Broader Economic Context The symposium takes place amid mixed U.S. data: weak job growth and rising producer prices raise concerns about both slowing labour markets and persistent inflation. Retail earnings (e.g. Target, Walmart, Home Depot) and recent CPI data also add to the backdrop, offering clues on consumer resilience and inflation trends. GOLD: Based on the back test of the event they tend to test the low of the range which in this scenario is around the 3280-90 region, however, if we look at the structure we do have a reversal in play here with the support level being the 3330-25 level. Above 3330 we have that extension of the move we spoke about last week 3360-65 which is still untouched. So, if we that in mind and they support that lower level in the coming session, there is a possibility they take us up into that region sitting around 3360-75 due to the volume that is expected, and if rejected they correct that move downside to again attempt to break through the 3300 level. The key level in this scenario is 3375 which needs to be broken to go higher taking us above 3400. On the flip. 3330-20 breaks forcefully, in this scenario there is possibility that for price to attempt the range low sitting around the 3280 level which needs to hold in order to go back up. Please note, an aggressive swing here can break through that level resulting in a move all the way back down into the 3230-50 levels before then exhausting. The range is huge and where we’ve seen 500-700pip movement over the years, we’re seeing over a couple of days lately, so we need to exaggerate every move and only look at the extreme levels. RED BOX TARGETS: Break above 3350 for 3360, 3365, 3374, 3390 and 3420 in extension of the move Break below 3335 for 3320, 3310, 3305, 3297, 3280 and 3265 in extension of the move What we’re trying to show you here is that its going to be a very difficult event to trade for new traders. Its going to be choppy, its going to be volatile, its going to whipsaw and its likely to move. If you’re caught the wrong side of it its going to kill your account. Best practice here is to let the market make the moves it wants to, wait for the price to settle in whatever level they want to drive it to, once this has happened then look for the setup to get in to the trade. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG The link below will take you to the previous report on this event:
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
26
Smart Money Playbook: Where Will Gold Hunt Liquidity Next?Gold SMC Daily Plan – 26/08 Market Context (SMC perspective): Price is consolidating near 3375 after an impulsive bullish move. There’s uncollected liquidity above 3385–3400, an FVG around 3354, and a deep buy zone at 3323–3327. Structure remains bullish unless 3327 is broken. ________________________________________ Key SMC Zones • Liquidity Pool: 3385–3400 (potential sweep before reversal) • FVG: 3354 region – watch for reaction • Buy Zone: 3323–3327 (SL 3320) • BOS/ChoCH: Upside confirmed above 3354; bearish shift if 3327 breaks ________________________________________ Trading Scenarios (SMC Logic) 1) BUY SCALP – Quick Liquidity Grab • Entry: 3350–3352 (FVG support) • SL: 3343 • TP: 3355 → 3360 → 3375 → 3385 → 3400+ Reason: Mitigation of FVG + bullish BOS continuation. ________________________________________ 2) BUY ZONE – Swing Setup • Entry: 3339–3336 (deep OB) • SL: 3334 • TP: 3340 → 3350 → 3360 → 3365 → 3370 → 3380 → 3390 → 3400+ Reason: Possible liquidity sweep below 3340 before upside continuation. ________________________________________ 3) SELL SCALP – Quick Reversal • Entry: 3380–3383 (above intra-day liquidity) • SL: 3385 • TP: 3378 → 3374 → 3370 → 3365 → 3360 → 3350 Reason: Sweep of local highs → BOS to downside. ________________________________________ 4) SELL ZONE – High-Risk Liquidity Sweep • Entry: 3400–3402 • SL: 3406 • TP: 3395 → 3390 → 3385 → 3380 → 3370 → 3360 Reason: Hunt major liquidity above 3400, then reversal. ________________________________________ SMC Flow for Today: • Look for buy confirmations around FVG 3354 or deep buy zone 3327. • If price sweeps 3385–3400 first, watch for sell setups with BOS confirmation. • Structure bias flips bearish only if price closes below 3327.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Ryan_TitanTrader
Gold’s Shine Is Fading: XAUUSD Signals Steep Drop AheadGold has been in a persistent downtrend on the 1-hour: a sequence of lower-highs from the left of the chart keeps price capped beneath stacked supply. The latest bounce ran into the 3,352 area, which aligns with a prior breakdown and a red dotted resistance line. That area has repeatedly attracted “S” (sell) signals on your chart, confirming it as the near-term ceiling. Price is now rotating lower from just under that band, keeping the bearish structure intact while we hold below it. Key Levels Resistance stack above: 3,352.300 / 3,352.393 (immediate), then 3,374.805, 3,390.600, and 3,409.430. This ladder of red lines shows heavy overhead supply—each rally has met sellers sooner. • Current pivot: Price is sitting around 3,341.310 (blue price marker), just under micro resistance at 3,341.156. • Supports below / profit magnets: 3,329.850 → 3,323.685 → 3,311.560 → 3,311.354 (green dashed cluster). These are the levels price has respected on prior sweeps and where buyers previously appeared. Structurally, the retest-and-roll from ~3,352 looks like a classic bearish continuation: a rally into prior supply, failure to clear, and a drift back toward the green support band. The distribution of “S” markers near 3,352–3,375 and “B” markers only at the lows underscores that sellers control the mid-range. Until bulls can reclaim and hold above 3,352.393, the path of least resistance remains down. You’ve also got U.S. event ahead on the timeline (those small flags), which often spike intraday volatility in XAUUSD. Into those releases, fading into resistance and locking partials into nearby supports is the higher-probability play versus chasing moves. ________________________________________ 🎯 Trading setup (from your chart) • Entry: 3,341.310 (≈ current level) • Stop-loss: 3,352.300 (aggressive) or just above 3,352.393 (safer buffer) 🔒 • Take-profits (scale out): o TP1: 3,329.850 (≈ 1.0R) o TP2: 3,323.685 (≈ 1.6R) o TP3: 3,311.560 (≈ 2.7R) o Stretch: 3,311.354 Management idea: If price accepts below 3,341.156, consider moving stop to breakeven; then trail above lower highs as you tag 3,329.850 and 3,323.685. Book small profits 💰 at each objective and let a runner attempt the deeper supports. ________________________________________ Invalidation & alternate path A 1H close back above 3,352.393 would neutralize the immediate short and put 3,374.805 back in play; above that, 3,390.600 → 3,409.430 are the next supply shelves. If that reclaim happens, the short thesis is invalid—step aside and reassess rather than fight the tape. ________________________________________ Risk note (important) XAUUSD can whip around on data and headlines. Size positions to your risk tolerance, keep risk per trade fixed, and take the wins early when the market offers them—especially into those green dashed supports. Consistently booking small profits and protecting capital is how you stay in control during a trend day.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by SupertradeOfficial
Gold Prices Overview of Primary Catalyst : September 2025⚡️ Gold: Consolidation Before the Next Move Gold set fresh records earlier this year and now sits in a tight post–Jackson Hole range around $3,360–$3,380/oz as rate-cut odds jumped and the dollar eased back. Spot was ~$3,368 this morning, slightly off Friday’s spike after Powell opened the door to a September cut. ________________________________________ 1) Fed Path & Real Yields — 9.5/10 (Bullish for gold) Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks highlighted rising labor-market risks and explicitly “opened the door” to a September cut. Futures now price a high probability of an initial -25 bps move with more to follow into year-end. Lower policy rates/real yields remain the single strongest tailwind for non-yielding gold. 2) U.S. Dollar Trend — 7.5/10 (Bullish for gold) The DXY slipped toward the high-97s after Powell’s dovish tilt and remains soft versus recent peaks, reducing a key headwind to non-USD buyers. If the dollar rebound stalls, gold’s upside path stays cleaner. 3) Central-Bank Buying / De-Dollarization — 8.5/10 (Bullish) Official-sector demand stays structurally strong. Global central banks remain on track for another ~1,000t year, with China’s PBoC extending purchases for a ninth straight month. This “sticky” bid continues to underwrite dips. 4) Trade/Tariff Shock (incl. U.S. tariffs on bullion) — 8.0/10 (Bullish) The broad U.S. tariff regime (10% baseline, higher on targeted goods) is inflationary at the margin; crucially, imports of 1kg/100oz gold bars were swept into the rules, temporarily snarling Swiss shipments and roiling COMEX/LBMA logistics until guidance is clarified. Result: fatter location/financing premia and periodic price dislocations that tend to support spot. 5) ETF & Institutional Flows — 7.5/10 (Bullish) After years of outflows, ETF inflows in the first half of 2025 were the strongest in 5 years (~$38B; +397t), with July showing further additions. GLD holdings are back near ~957t. Continued inflows amplify macro moves. 6) Systematic/CTA & Positioning Dynamics — 6.5/10 (Mixed → Volatility) CTAs and options flow are magnifying swings around key levels ($3,350–$3,420). Upside call demand is persistent, meaning whipsaws remain likely as trend-following systems react to dollar/yield shifts. 7) China Property & Growth Stress — 6.0/10 (Bullish) The Evergrande delisting and deepening Country Garden losses underscore a property slump that keeps risk appetite in check and supports defensive assets. Weak housing drags on jewelry demand but typically supports investment demand for bullion. 8) U.S. Fiscal Risk & Credit Quality — 6.0/10 (Bullish) The May downgrade of U.S. sovereign credit and ongoing wide deficits keep a slow-burn bid under gold. Any wobble in auctions or debt-ceiling theatrics would push this higher. 9) Jewelry & Tech Demand — 5.0/10 (Slightly Bearish/neutral short-term) Record prices hit Q2 jewelry volumes (-14% y/y to 341t), though India shows early signs of seasonal revival into festivals. Tech demand dipped ~2% y/y amid electronics softness. Physical demand is a brake on parabolic rallies. 10) Geopolitics (Ukraine, Middle East, Taiwan risk, etc.) — 5.5/10 (Event-Bullish) Headlines remain volatile—Israeli strikes on Iran-aligned Houthis and ongoing Ukraine politics keep a latent safe-haven premium. Spikes are event-driven unless escalation persists. ________________________________________ 🌐 Other Catalysts to Watch • Crypto Cross-Flows (5/10): Sharp crypto drawdowns can funnel short-term interest into gold, though correlation remains inconsistent. • Bullion Logistics & Refining (New): U.S. tariff ambiguity on kilobars introduces intermittent premiums and arbitrage opportunities between Zurich–London–NY. • Physical Supply Disruptions (4/10): Always idiosyncratic; currently secondary to macro. | Rank | Catalyst | Score/10 | Current Impact | Direction | Notes | | ---- | ------------------------------------------ | -------: | -------------- | ------------------------------ | ------------------------------------------------------------ | | 1 | Fed path & real yields | **9.5** | Very High | **Bullish** | Dovish tilt; cuts now live for Sept. | | 2 | Central-bank buying | **8.5** | High | **Bullish** | Ongoing official demand; PBoC keeps adding. | | 3 | Trade/tariff shock (incl. bullion tariffs) | **8.0** | High | **Bullish** | Broad tariffs + bullion rules raise premia & inflation risk. | | 4 | U.S. dollar trend | **7.5** | High | **Bullish** | DXY softer post-Jackson Hole; less drag on gold. | | 5 | ETF/institutional flows | **7.5** | High | **Bullish** | Biggest inflows in 5 yrs; GLD holdings high. | | 6 | Systematic/CTA flows | **6.5** | Moderate | **Mixed** | Options/CTA activity driving overshoots both ways. | | 7 | China property stress | **6.0** | Moderate | **Bullish** | Structural drag supports safe-haven demand. | | 8 | U.S. fiscal/credit risk | **6.0** | Moderate | **Bullish** | Downgrade + deficits maintain hedge demand. | | 9 | Jewelry/tech demand | **5.0** | Low | **Neutral → Slightly Bearish** | Jewelry volumes fell 14% y/y; festivals could revive. | | 10 | Geopolitics (broad) | **5.5** | Low–Mod | **Bullish (event-driven)** | Episodic; not the primary driver now. |
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ProjectSyndicate
36