A review after 53 months!On April 11th, 2021 I published this analysis which I believe is second to none for timing and price target accuracy!
Gold is money. Everything else is credit. (J. P. Morgan)
Gold has at least 5000 years of history, so this is just an analysis based on the last 1% ..!
It is obvious that Gold's past 2 bullish rallies last for 10 years..! and I believe we are in the middle of the 3rd one which could push Gold's price to 3500-4000 USD/oz in the next 4-5 years.
If you do simple research about the corrected value of gold based on the inflation after lifting the gold standard. (In August 1971, Nixon severed the direct convertibility of U.S. dollars into gold. With this decision, the international currency market, which had become increasingly reliant on the dollar since the enactment of the Bretton Woods Agreement, lost its formal connection to gold.)
A long-term US dollar gold price since 1700, inflation-adjusted by the US Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
shows based on this CPI adjustment, that the all-time real high of the US dollar gold price was in January 1980 at the US $ 3045 per troy ounce.
Gold's Market Cap
Estimated Market Cap: $11.055 T
The Market Capitalization of Gold is currently around $11.055 T.
This value was obtained by multiplying the current gold price ($1,740 per once) with the worlds' above-the-ground gold reserves.
The amount of above-ground reserves for Gold are estimated to be around 197,000 metric tonnes according to the World Gold Council. Note that the estimated ground Gold reserves can vary by up to 20% from one source to another.
As a consequence, it is safe to say that the current Market Cap of Gold is between $8.844 T and $13.265 T.
GOLDMINICFD trade ideas
Gold breaks records again above $3,500!Gold has recently seen another surge, pushing it to record levels above $3,500 an ounce, marking one of its strongest rallies in decades. This rise is driven by a mix of macroeconomic and geopolitical factors: expectations of imminent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, persistent inflation concerns, political pressure on central banks, legal uncertainties around tariffs, and escalating global tensions.
At the same time, central banks continue to buy gold at record levels, while exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are experiencing strong inflows, alongside growing institutional demand from Asia.
Together, these factors reinforce gold’s role as both an inflation hedge and a safe-haven asset during uncertain times, paving the way for further volatility and the potential for continued gains.
From a technical perspective, gold is trading on the 4-hour chart in a general uptrend, forming a positive structure by making higher highs and higher lows. If gold maintains its positive environment supported by bullish news, it may correct toward the 3,487.179 level before resuming its upward move.
However, if the price falls below the 3,470.170 level and closes under it on the 4-hour chart, this scenario would serve as the first warning signal of a possible correction to the prevailing uptrend in the short to midterm.
XAUUSD IDEAGold remains in a strong bullish trend as it pushes toward the $3,500 all-time high (ATH). However, reduced liquidity could create sharp swings. Before testing $3,500, we may see a consolidation or pullback into the $3,469–$3,460 support zone. The weak U.S. dollar continues to support gold’s upside momentum.
Resistance: 3,484.8 / 3,500
Support: 3,469.5 / 3,460
A clean break above $3,500 could attract more buyers, but traders should be cautious—momentum may fade at this key level. A false breakout could trigger heavy profit-taking, leading to a corrective move. For now, the strategy is to buy on dips above support and watch carefully for rejection near $3,500.
XAUUSD: Overbought, will bears take over?Gold (XAUUSD) on the 4H chart is showing strength after a strong rally, but the signs of exhaustion are starting to creep in. The VWAP Dashboard shows price trading well above VWAP at 3,523 vs. 3,492, a classic overextension that often leads to pullbacks. The RSI sits at 76.9, deep in overbought territory, hinting that bulls may soon run out of steam.
The price action has just tapped into a key resistance zone near 3,538, aligning with a Fibonacci confluence. This level previously acted as resistance, and now it creates a high-probability rejection area. Meanwhile, the volatility bands wrapping around price show expansion, a sign of stretched momentum and potential mean reversion.
The Fibonacci retracement levels lay out clear downside targets:
3,508 (38.2%) 🎯 – first potential support where minor buyers may step in.
3,490 (61.8%) 🟡 – the golden pocket retracement, often a strong reaction zone.
3,459 (100%) 🔻 – deeper correction aligning with trendline support.
Unless bulls can break and hold above 3,538, the chart suggests that sellers may take control in the short term, pushing gold down into these Fibonacci zones.
XAUUSD – Liquidity Gap & Key Levels Before ADP/NFPAfter yesterday’s rally, Gold (XAUUSD) pulled back over 60 points, returning to the VPOC 3537 zone. This sharp move suggests a possible short-term ATH near 357x, where many SELLs were forced out while BUYs locked in profits.
Currently, Gold is in a correction phase ahead of ADP today and NFP tomorrow. With ADP expected at 73K vs. 104K prior, weaker data could support further upside if USD weakens.
The 60+ point drop shows profit-taking by big players and left liquidity gaps on both sides, bringing price back into the 353x–354x range. A breakout of this range will likely dictate today’s trend.
🔑 Key Resistance Levels
3540 - 3548 - 3560 - 3576
🔑 Key Support Levels
3526 - 3515 - 3502 - 3490 - 3476
📌 Trade Setups (MMFLOW Trading View)
BUY Scalp: 3502 – 3500
SL: 3494
TP: 3506 – 3510 – 3520 – 3530 – 3540 – ???
BUY Zone: 3477 – 3475
SL: 3470
TP: 3485 – 3495 – 3500 – 3510 – 3520 – 3530 – 3540 – 3550 – ???
SELL Scalp: 3559 – 3561
SL: 3566
TP: 3554 – 3550 – 3540 – 3530 – 3520 – 3510 – 3500 – ???
SELL Zone: 3574 – 3576
SL: 3580
TP: 3570 – 3560 – 3550 – 3540 – 3530 – ???
📊 MMFLOW TRADING View:
Today’s market context suggests continued correction before ADP/NFP. Sideway accumulation remains dominant in 353x–354x, but a decisive breakout will guide today’s direction.
Gold Strategy SharingDriven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and market risk aversion, spot gold prices have rallied for seven consecutive trading days, approaching $3,580 per ounce, setting a new all-time high. A short-term correction has now begun, reaching a low of around $3,510 and currently trading around $3,530. The market remains strong, and any short-term corrections are a normal process. I believe gold will continue its upward trend after this correction.
Next, we need to monitor the ADP data and speeches by Fed officials, which are crucial factors guiding gold's short-term direction. If gold breaks down further due to the impact of these data and news, breaking below the $3,500 support level, then the expected extent of the correction should be lowered, and short positions should be opened at resistance levels.
Gold Strategy Sharing
Before the ADP data is released, focus on technical analysis: view any short-term corrections as technical adjustments. The trend remains overwhelmingly bullish, so consider opening long positions during these corrections. Focus on the support range of 3510 to 3520 to open a long position, with the target of 3530 to 3550 and 3570.
XAUUSD about to make new ATH and head to $3800Gold (XAUUSD) is on a huge rebound following the double bounce on its 1W MA20 (red trend-line), a level which has been previously associated with the start of very strong rallies.
The 2-year Channel Up that started back in October 2023 has always formed a consolidation Triangle before the next Bullish Leg and on the three past occasions that was initiated after a 1W MA20 contact.
Assuming we 'just' repeat the minimum +22.41% Bullish Leg, we are targeting at least $3800 before the current peaks.
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XAUUSD – 1H | OB / FVG Roadmap Price currently: 3539.7
🔴 1H Supply (Sell Zone): 3565 – 3575
🟩 1H OB #1: 3488 – 3470
🟩 1H OB #2: 3455 – 3440
🟦 1H FVG: 3405 – 3390
🟩 Deep 1H OB: 3382 – 3372
Scenario 1 – Bullish Continuation:
If price holds above 3488–3470 OB, I’ll look for buys targeting 3565–3575 supply zone.
Acceptance above 3575 could open doors to continuation higher (new highs).
Invalidation: clean 1H close below 3470.
Scenario 2 – Deeper Pullback:
If price fails to hold 3488–3470, next area for potential long setups is 3455–3440 OB, and then the unmitigated 3405–3390 FVG.
I will look for bullish CHoCH/BOS on 3–5m TF before entering.
Targets for rebound are 3530 (mid-range) and 3565–3575 (supply zone).
Execution: No blind orders – confirmation required on LTF.
📊 ProfitaminFX | Gold, BTC & EUR/USD
📚 Daily setups & educational trades
XAUUSD H1 | Bullish continuationThe Gold (XAU/USD) is falling towards the buy entry which is a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to the take profit.
Buy entry is at 3,507.77, which is a pullback support that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 3,469.17, whichis a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibnacci retracement.
Tak eprofit is at 3,574.66, whichis a swing high reisstance.
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Gold (XAUUSD) – 4 Sep | Key Decision Zone 3530–3526 in Focus🟡 Gold (XAUUSD) Analysis – 4 September
Market Overview
Yesterday, gold printed a fresh all-time high at 3578.6 .
Both H4 and M15 remain bullish overall, confirming the broader uptrend.
However, price failed to respect the previously highlighted POI zone (3547.6–3541.5) and has now dropped into the critical M15 Demand / HL Zone (3530–3526) .
This level has already been respected twice — this is now the third test .
Why This Zone Matters
This 3530–3526 area is the last major demand holding the current M15 higher low structure.
• If it holds → the uptrend can continue.
• If it breaks → it signals the beginning of a deeper H4 pullback and a potential M15 downtrend.
Execution Plan
This is a “decision zone.” The third test of a demand zone often carries higher risk because liquidity builds up under the zone — making it vulnerable to a sweep.
Here’s the plan:
🔸 Bullish Scenario – Wait for clear LTF confirmation (M1 ChoCH or strong rejection wick) before considering a long setup. Third tests work best when backed by momentum or absorption signals.
🔸 Bearish Scenario – If price breaks below 3526 with conviction and holds, treat it as a structure shift. Wait for a retest of the broken zone to look for short setups targeting lower H4 levels.
Patience is crucial here — don’t anticipate, let the market confirm.
Bias for Today
📊 Neutral-to-Bullish — watching 3530–3526 closely for confirmation.
If broken, shift to short-term bearish bias and plan shorts with the trend.
📘 Shared by @ChartIsMirror
Gold (XAUUSD) – 4 Sep | Bullish Bias, Watching 3547–3541 POI🟡 Gold (XAUUSD) Analysis – 4 September
Market Overview
Gold printed a fresh all-time high yesterday at 3578.6 , confirming the strength of the ongoing bullish trend.
The higher-timeframe structure ( H4 ) remains firmly bullish, with a clear series of higher highs and higher lows.
On the M15 chart, price action is in a healthy pullback phase — a normal reaction after such an extended bullish impulse.
Context
This pullback is currently resting inside the M15 Point of Interest (POI) zone at 3547.6–3541.5 .
This is a high-probability area for price to stabilize, build liquidity, and potentially set up for the next bullish leg.
What We’re Watching
🔹 3547.6–3541.5 (M15 POI Zone)
If this zone holds and price confirms strength on lower timeframes (micro-ChoCH / BoS), it can offer a clean long setup toward new all-time highs.
This would keep price in alignment with the higher-timeframe bullish structure.
If the zone fails and price breaks below with strength, we will stand aside and reassess structure for fresh demand areas before looking for long opportunities again.
Execution Plan
✅ Wait patiently for confirmation before entering — no impulsive buys inside the zone.
✅ Look for a shift in lower-timeframe structure that signals strong buyer presence.
✅ Manage risk strictly (our approach: 40 pips SL, 120 pips TP for a fixed 1:3 R:R).
Bias for Today
📈 Bullish Only — until this key zone is broken with conviction, H4/M15 structure continues to favor upside continuation.
Patience and precision are key — let the market confirm its intention before committing to a position.
📘 Shared by @ChartIsMirror
XAUUSD Price Action: Above Support, Eye on 3880Hello there,
XAUUSD has broken above key resistance and remains bullish above the 3444 level. The primary support zones to watch are at 3477.34 and 3524.08, which act as holding levels within the broader resistance zone near 3722.
The directional bias is targeting the 3880 level, although this movement is expected to unfold gradually over time.
Happy Trading,
K.
Not trading advice.
Gold may make correction, after strong upward movementHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Gold. The prolonged period of consolidation for Gold has decisively resolved to the upside, following a powerful breakout from a multi-week symmetrical wedge. This event signalled a clear shift in market control to buyers, invalidating the prior ranging environment and initiating a new, impulsive bullish phase. The price action for XAU since the breakout has been characterised by a strong, high-momentum rally that has pushed the asset to new highs. Currently, this upward movement appears to be overextended, suggesting that the market may be due for a healthy corrective pull-back. The primary working hypothesis is a short, counter-trend scenario designed to capture this anticipated correction. The expectation is that the current rally will soon find a peak, exhaust itself, and undergo a sharp decline back towards the breakout point. This corrective fall would be a natural part of a healthy uptrend, allowing the market to test the old resistance as new support. Therefore, the TP is logically placed at the 3420 level. This target is highly significant as it corresponds precisely with the current support level and the support area where the breakout originated. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
Good News and Bad News for Gold as It Hits Record HighsAs gold continues to surge to record highs (~$3600) , two major risks exist that could impact its momentum—one potentially positive, and the other negative.
The Potential Removal of Trump's Tariffs
A federal appeals court recently ruled that Trump’s tariffs, imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, were unlawful. As a result, U.S. businesses have paid over $210 billion in tariffs that are now considered illegal.
Trump’s administration is preparing an appeal to the Supreme Court, and if the tariffs are reversed, it could reduce Treasury revenue. This could lead to increased borrowing, potentially putting downward pressure on gold prices.
Concerns Over the Fed's Independence
Concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence also pose a risk to gold. If these concerns grow, markets could price in a higher risk premium against the dollar, which could boost gold’s appeal.
Helping to moderate these concerns, at least for now, two Republican senators recently announced they would block any replacement for Fed Governor Lisa Cook until her lawsuit over her firing is resolved.
Gold Nay Hit 3600 Range in coming Days Market TalkGold prices are consolidating with bullish potential, and could target the 3600 level soon and even 3900 per ounce over the longer term if the spot price sustains a decisive breach above the 3500 zone, according to a note by Philip Nova's and Priyanka Sachdeva.
The analysts note that an aggressive U.S. tariff stance has heightened geopolitical risks, prompting increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold. Additionally, expectations for a peak in rate-cut cycles are contributing to a favourable backdrop for gold.
If gold breaks and holds above the 3549 resistance level, it could trigger a strong bullish move toward the next psychological target of 3600.
You may find more details in the chart.
Trade wisely best Of Luck Buddies.
Ps; Support with like and comments for better analysis Thanks for Support.
Gold: Is Market Manipulation Driving the Move?Gold: Is Market Manipulation Driving the Move?
Gold hit 3509 today but quickly dropped back below 3500. As long as it stays under this level, a sell-off remains likely. I don’t expect any major news to trigger this move—it could simply unfold without a clear reason, just like the recent bullish wave did.
If today’s candle closes as a pinbar, we might see a small Head and Shoulders pattern forming on the 60-minute chart, which could push prices lower.
The key level to watch is the neckline, around 3470. A break below that could trigger further downside.
💵 Dollar Strength vs. Gold
The DXY and USD were strong today, and that strength showed up in the indices—but not in gold. It’s possible gold could drop during the U.S. market open. If it doesn’t, and instead starts rising, it might suggest that manipulation is playing a bigger role than expected.
It’s strange how gold reflects all the major USD-related news—like inflation and interest rates—but doesn’t seem to react to USD strength, which is a clear strength. The whole situation feels highly manipulated and disconnected from fundamentals.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day
XAUUSD: Very Risky for Either SideXAUUSD has recently seen a strong move to the upside. But I believe that is about to end.
A correction after such a move up is high probability, as price is starting to show early signs that sellers are stepping in discreetly.
I would target a level at around 3,400. But only price will give us some obvious signs of selling pressure first.
And, if price gives us a confirmation cue here, that might be the signal to get involved: not just in candlestick structure but also in volume behavior.
The second scenario, would be for the move to continue more to the upside, but that would require a bigger effort from the buyers.
Leave a comment if you agree, or disagree.
Break of Structure (BoS): When the Trend Announces Itself“Structure is the language of the market. Learn it, and price speaks to you.”
Every trader looks at charts hoping for clues — and structure is the clearest one.
A Break of Structure (BoS) is a simple but powerful concept: it shows when the market confirms a continuation of the trend.
What is BoS?
When price breaks a previous high in an uptrend → confirms bullish continuation.
When price breaks a previous low in a downtrend → confirms bearish continuation.
BoS is different from ChoCH:
ChoCH signals potential reversal .
BoS signals trend continuation .
How to Spot BoS
Identify the key swing highs and lows.
Wait for price to decisively break them.
Confirm the break on the timeframe aligned with your bias (e.g., H4 for trend, M15 for setups).
Practical Tip
A BoS on M15 aligned with H4 bias is often where setups start forming.
Never assume a break is real without observing structure alignment and volume/confirmation.
Price doesn’t lie. Structure doesn’t cheat.
Once you see the break, the market has announced its intentions.
📘 Shared by @ChartIsMirror
If this resonated, comment below — which part of structure analysis should I break down next?
Don't chase the rise of gold, wait for the retracement to 3500Gold retreated to 3470 yesterday before rebounding. Driven by safe-haven funds, it surged strongly, breaking through the 3500 resistance level and reaching an all-time high of 3546.
The main reason for the rise is market concerns about the UK's economic outlook. Coupled with the general rise in global bond yields, the UK's long-term borrowing costs hit their highest level since 1998 yesterday.
As for gold at this point, my view remains that it's best not to chase the rally. While the current state of gold is generally bullish, the more such times are, the greater the risks.
Especially with gold prices at their all-time high, you don't know where the top will be or where the pullback will begin. This creates the greatest uncertainty.
When it comes to trading, my philosophy has always been to avoid uncertain trades. I prefer to wait for better opportunities, as they are free.
What gold needs now is a pullback to support, which would provide momentum for further gains. However, yesterday's pullback to the crucial 3450 level wasn't reached. Currently, gold has broken through 3500, so 3500 has turned from pressure to support, so I will pay attention to 3500 next and wait to see whether it stabilizes before considering whether to enter the market.
📣If you have different opinions, please leave a message below to discuss
Gold (XAUUSD) – 3rd Sep | Bullish Bias, Watching 3528–3526 Zone🟡 Gold (XAUUSD) Analysis – 3rd September
Market Overview
Gold printed a fresh all-time high today at 3547.3 .
Both H4 and M15 remain bullish, confirming continuation of the broader uptrend.
Current Phase
Price is now in a pullback phase after the new high.
Market is approaching the M15 demand zone (3528–3526) , aligned with the higher-low structure.
Key Zones to Watch
🔹 3528–3526 → M15 Demand / HL Zone.
If respected + confirmed on LTF, we look for long setups toward new highs.
🔹 3509–3498 → Deeper demand zone.
If the first zone breaks, this becomes the next potential buy area for continuation.
Bias for Today
📈 Bullish only. Structure on H4/M15 supports upside continuation.
Wait for price to retest demand zones + show confirmation before entering.
📘 Shared by @ChartIsMirror
GOLD 4H CHART ROUTE MAP UPDATE & TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEKHey Everyone,
Please see follow up update on our 4chart idea which is still valid and in play.
We got our Bullish target 3424 last week and finished off with ema5 cross and lock above this level opening 3499, as a open gap and 3424 is now our support gap. If ema5 fails to lock below 3424 we are likely to see our open gap above at 3499 tested.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 20 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
The swing range give bigger bounces then our weighted levels that's the difference between weighted levels and swing ranges.
BULLISH TARGET
3424 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3424 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGETS
3499
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3499 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3561
BEARISH TARGETS
3347
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3347 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
3277
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3277 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
3234
3171
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3171 WILL OPEN THE SECONDARY SWING RANGE
3089
2996
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX