Monthly cycles Polish MarketMonthly cycles built on seasonality.
Data range: 15 years.
Strong cycle from May 23 to June 10.
Example od Wyckoff accumulation on WIG20 Futures in Dec 2020Trends rarely reverse instantly.
It took 3 days to print this reversing pattern.
It is always good to have a real world example of Wyckoff accumulation at hand.
Including the volume!
In this case the main stopping power occurred in the Preliminary Support.
PS - Preliminary Support
SC - Selling
BLACK SWAN PESSIMISTIC SCENARIO WIG20This pessimistic scenario is based upon current state of healthcare services in Poland which were underfinanced for many years and have very limited resources in qualified personell and equipment.
There is significant lack of nurses and doctors in Poland not mentioning available hospital beds which
Free fall if global weakens So far we are following expected pattern.
Breakout below lower bound of ascending channel, entrancement and back to support.
If we will break below 2055 with confirmed volumen there is a long free fall ahead of us, with lots of volatility and turning points. It's not going to be a smooth ride down
Are we forming H&S?Following FW20 chart I can see a H&S formation.
If that will prove to be true next major support level should be found at 2055 (also a recent low on the Wig20 future contracts).
Relative weakness of Polish marketWith German DAX up 0,7% and US market futures in green FW20 shows relative weakness today.
Instead of expected recovery to 2110 levels we are slowly sliding lower and lower today.
If global sentiment will worsen during the day, further decline would be expected.
Otherwise at some point in the a
Day off and now what?With market closed in Poland yesterday we have missed on lots of mood swings on the global markets just to land in about the same place as Wednesday.
Expecting an open around the same levels (2081) +/- 10 pt and based on a global sentiment there is a chance for a small recovery.
2111 should be ea
Are we going to see 2054 this week? While trading futures is usually a short term play or swing dance it's worth to look at current levels form broader perspective.
If current support level (2090) will not hold (very likely) ther is just one final support at 2054 before we approach an abyss.
With yield curve inverted in the US and
And so the story goes ...Everyone seems to already forgotten yesterdays news and great emotional rally.
It looks like it was great place to open shorts.
Heading toward lows with a high probability to confirm a consistent downtrend, unless another tweet or piece of news will warm up Wall Street today.
Rebound in the US does not change a single thing for FW20Even with a great bounce in the US last night it seems like Polish market is going into only one direction. SOUTH.
FW20 just broke a support for the 2nd time and it seems like we have a open path for another significant drop.
Looking toward 2080 in near future?
All comments are welcome. Hit me
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Frequently Asked Questions
The nearest expiration date for WIG20 INDEX FUTURES is Dec 18, 2020.
Traders prefer to sell futures contracts when they've already made money on the investment, but still have plenty of time left before the expiration date. Thus, many consider it a good option to sell WIG20 INDEX FUTURES before Dec 18, 2020.