How a Single Put Spread Predicted Gold’s BreakdownSo, gold has broken below the previous bearish zone — meaning we now have a bearish sentiment in play (at least according to my classification).
Now, regarding options flow:
On the chart, I’ve highlighted those lucky (or rather, well-informed) players who entered with a Put Spread — just before the correction started.
Perfect timing.
Their ideal target?
$3,950 — to be reached within 8 days, right around expiry.
Or at least close enough for maximum profit.
p.s. Just to be clear:
We are not teaching options trading as such — even though much of my methodology is built on options market data.
What we are doing is showing you how to read the option sentiment and use that insight to trade more effectively on the markets you already know — like spot Forex.
It’s about understanding why price moves — before it does.
We believe that trading without using options sentiment analysis is similar to fishing with a fishing rod🤦🏻♂️ on the shore while your neighbor has arrived at the river with a sonar on a boat.
We are on that boat, and we want to help you make better trading decision.💰
Trade ideas
**“Friday Play: Watching GC for a potential continuation lowerAfter the 4240 liquidity clear. Today’s open (4174.9) is my decision point.
Two scenarios I’m stalking:
1️⃣ Break & retest below 4174 → downside continuation into the H4 bullish FVG (4060–4090).
2️⃣ Sweep above 4200–4215 → rejection → short from premium pricing.
Friday loves completing unfinished business — but only if orderflow confirms. Patience first.”**
Gold Testing H4 Supply – Eyes on Retrace SetupAfter a clean bullish expansion last week, Gold is now testing a 4H bearish FVG around 4,200–4,240. Price is currently holding below the day’s open (4,203), suggesting potential short-term weakness.
If we stay below 4,203, I’ll look for a corrective move toward the 4H bullish FVG just below the previous day’s low (around 4,060–4,090).
Above 4,220, the bullish continuation remains valid.
Currently in observation mode — waiting for intraday confirmation before engaging any short bias.
XAUUSD UPDATE : BREACH 4149.78hi again
Market Analysis
From the previous chart, the price successfully broke above 4149.78. At the current level, the next resistance is identified at 4279.23, while key support is around 4124.81.
Trade Plan
Sell Setup:
Look for rejection at 4279.23 combined with bearish price action confirmation at that resistance level.
Buy Setup:
Look for rejection at 4124.81 combined with bullish price action confirmation at that support level
good luck all
**My trading strategy is not intended to be a signal. It's a process of learning about market structure and sharpening my trading my skills also for my trade journal**
Thanks a lot for your support
Gold Confirmed Bullish BiasFenzoFx—Gold is bullish again, confirmed by engulfing above the $4,175.00 resistance. As of this writing, XAU/USD trades inside the bearish fair value gap, testing the $4,230.00 resistance.
Last day, Gold did not dip below $4,103.00 (the bullish FVG) for liquidity. This indicates a strong bullish market. However, going long at the current price is risky because the price has surged already. The ideal level for joining the bull market would be around $4,146.00, which is in conjunction with daily highs and the October 23 and 24 close. This area should provide decent support for Gold.
In the bullish scenario, we expect Gold to form a double top at all-time highs by targeting $4,398.00.
GOLD: Look For Bullish Breakout From The +FVGIn this Weekly Market Forecast, we will analyze the Gold (XAUUSD) for the week of Nov. 10-14th.
Gold has been consolidating in a +FVG since last week... and it is still holding! Wait for price to break the high of the consolidation and then look for long setups.
Be mindful that price may sweep the sell side LQ before it moves higher.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
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Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
GOLD (XAU) Outlook - Prediction (12 NOV)GOLD (XAU) Outlook - Prediction
📊 Market Sentiment
Market sentiment for GOLD remains strongly bullish, primarily driven by central bank accumulation. Since 2023, global central banks led by China have been purchasing gold aggressively, creating a durable demand base. With the FED preparing to initiate QE while inflation remains elevated, I think risk assets like GOLD could outperform as the USD (DXY) weakens. This macro setup continues to support a long term bullish narrative.
📈 Technical Analysis
Price has been retracing since October 20, which I think was a healthy correction following a strong expansion. As mentioned in my previous GOLD outlook, price appeared to be retesting the Weekly Value Gap and accumulating within that zone. In my opinion, this accumulation phase seems to have ended, and the market looks ready to continue higher.
📌 Game Plan - Prediction
Price has broken out of the accumulation zone and started expanding upward. I plan to enter after a retest near the key zone around $4060. It may dip toward $4027, which I consider a discount zone. I intend to scale in between $4060 and $3950, with invalidation if the daily candle closes below $3900.
💬 Follow my Substack profile for detailed insights and extended analysis.
⚠️ Disclaimer: For educational purposes only. This is not financial advice.
MGC / GOLD 15/4h/D🧠 Multi-Timeframe Alignment – XAUUSD
Daily + 4H demand are in control ✅
15M structure is bullish ✅
Although price is currently high in the range, this 15M demand is valid because it just displaced and removed the opposing light red zone.
With lower timeframe confirmation and HTF alignment, I’m projecting price to continue higher and remove the 4H opposing zone.
Recovery phaseFollowing a "Double Bottom," currently testing key resistance levels within a broader bullish context (indicated by the large green Ichimoku cloud).
The price has successfully reclaimed the 0.618 level (4,149.1). Holding above this level is crucial for the bullish thesis to continue.
The price is approaching the 0.786 level (4,193.5). A breakout here usually opens the door for a retest of the previous high.
If the price breaks the previous high (Level 1 at 4,250), the chart projects targets at the 1.272 extension (4,321.8) and the 1.618 extension (4,413.2).
The price is trading well above the Green Kumo (Cloud), which acts as a major dynamic support zone. This generally indicates a long-term bullish trend.
The Tenkan-Sen (Blue, 4,123.7) is currently below the Kijun-Sen (Red, 4,147.5), which is technically a weak signal. However, the current price (4,167) has moved above both lines, which is an early signal of renewed momentum. The status box at the bottom right notes "Status: Consolidation," likely waiting for the Tenkan to cross above the Kijun for a confirmed "Strong" buy signal.
A clear "Double Bottom" pattern formed around the 3,985 level (the 0 Fib line). This is a classic reversal pattern that provided the floor for the current rally.
There is an annotation for a "Bear Asc. Head and Shoulders." However, the price action has pushed up through the right shoulder, largely invalidating this bearish setup.
Current Move: A breakout from the consolidation zone between 4,080 and 4,150.
Short-Term Pullback: The projection anticipates a small dip or retest (likely bouncing off the 4,250 resistance initially).
Breakout: The projection implies a final surge breaking the 4,250 high, aiming for the Fibonacci extensions at 4,321 and 4,413.
Pivot/Support 4,149 (0.618 Fib) Must hold to maintain immediate bullish momentum.
Major Support 4,118 - 4,123 Confluence of 0.5 Fib and Tenkan-Sen. Loss of this level turns the trend neutral/bearish.
Key Resistance 4,193.5 The 0.786 Fib level; the next hurdle to clear.
Breakout Target 4,250 Previous High. Clearing this confirms the resumption of the macro uptrend.
Insight
The chart suggests a Bullish Bias. The "Double Bottom" provided a strong floor, and the price reclaiming the 0.618 Fibonacci level is a sign of strength. The primary risk is the "Consolidation", watch for the Tenkan-Sen (Blue line) to cross above the Kijun-Sen (Red line) to confirm the next leg up.
XAU/USD Plot Twist?XAU/USD: From 4106.7 to 4200 – The Comeback Tour (Featuring a Quick Dip at 4060.3)
Trade Idea Explanation:
Current Situation:
Price has successfully broken above the previous resistance at 4106.7, confirming bullish momentum.
Expected Move:
A pullback toward 4060.3 is anticipated before resuming the upward trend. This level aligns with potential support from the breakout structure.
Bullish Target:
After the pullback, the next upside target is 4200, which represents the projected extension of the bullish move.
Alternative Scenario:
If price breaks the current resistance at 4152.0, it could extend higher toward 4195 (first short entry) and 4220 (second short entry), where sellers may step in and initiate a reversal.
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Disclaimer
My trading strategy isn’t a signal — it’s more like therapy for my brain. I’m just here crying over candlesticks while pretending it’s ‘learning market structure.’ Sharpening my skills? Sure. Building my trade journal? Absolutely. But deep down, it’s just me whispering to the charts: ‘Please love me back
Upcoming GOLD is most likely going upThe upcoming outlook for gold is bullish.
The external structure remains bullish, and the internal structure has now shifted bullish as well after breaking the internal lower high. Price completed a clean retracement into the 78% Fibonacci level and has since begun pushing upward.
Gold is currently bouncing from the FVG and is heading toward the upside Unicorn Zone. Before revisiting the all-time high, price is expected to pull back into the major support area and then continue higher toward the double-top all-time-high region.
XAU/USD Prophecy: Will 4200 Shine Bright?Greetings, Traders! Market Prophecy: XAU/USD in Action
Gold isn’t just sparkling—it’s plotting moves like a secret agent with Fibonacci codes! Here’s what the charts are whispering:
🔍 The Setup
XAU/USD has strutted its way to the 50% Fibonacci level, but if history is any guide, gold loves to go the extra mile—often stretching beyond 61.8% like it’s chasing a bonus level in a video game. Translation? There’s still some golden runway left for the bulls.
📈 The Technical Drama
On the 1-hour timeframe, we’ve got a trendline breakout—cue the fireworks!
The 30-minute chart? Resistance smashed like a piñata at a birthday party.
Now, all eyes are on the 4107 level. If price breaks this resistance, expect a pullback that could be your golden ticket for a long entry.
🎯 The Target
If the bullish momentum keeps flexing, we’re eyeing 4200 as the grand finale. Think of it as gold’s victory lap.
💡 Trading Idea
Break → Pullback → Long → Profit. Simple, but with style. Just remember: markets can be as moody as a cat, so manage your risk like a pro.
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