Odds: 25% to $2.40-$2.59 (Cuban lower $2.57; 30% if $2.89 retests and fails, 1-3 days)
75% to $3.21-$3.66 (50-day EMA $3.11, VWAP $2.995 broken, 1-4 days)
Signal: NG1! at $3.01, above 20-period MA ($2.976) and VWAP ($2.995 from Feb 18 low anchor at $1.52), breaking out post-EIA +18 Bcf (storage ~3.217 Tcf, ~5.9% above norm). Green volume on 5min/15min/1000Tick/1H/3H/4H/5H/12H and rising LNG exports (15.9 Bcf/day) target $3.21-$3.66 by Sep 1. however Red volume on 1Day/2Day and net outflow risk a $2.89 retest.
Trade: Long (50%): Hold long ($2.80-$2.844), add 20% at $2.70-$2.73 (target $3.21-$3.66, 1-4 days). Stop at $2.89.
Hedge (20%): Short if $2.89 retests and breaks (target $2.77, 1-3 days). Stop at $3.05.
Odds: 30% to $2.40-$2.59 (Cuban lower $2.53; 35% if $2.67 breaks, 1-3 days)
70% to $3.00-$3.08 (50-day EMA $3.11 resistance, pivot $2.78 support, 1-4 days)
Signal: NG1! at $2.95, above 57 EMA ($2.82), surging post-EIA +18 Bcf (storage ~3.217 Tcf, ~5.9% above norm, below expected +20-25 Bcf). Green volume on 5min/15min/1H/3H/4H/5H/12H/1000-Tick, and hotter weather drive $3.00-$3.08 by Sep 1, with 50-day EMA ($3.11) as key resistance. Red volume on Daily/2D and high production
Trade: Long (50%): Hold long ($2.80-$2.844), add 20% at $2.70-$2.73 (target $3.00-$3.05, 1-4 days). Stop at $2.65.
Hedge (20%): Short if $2.67 breaks (target $2.53, 1-3 days). Stop at $2.76.
Watch: Price momentum, Daily/2D volume, $3.11 EMA.
NG1! Short-Covering Rally, contract renewal | Aug 27, 2025
Odds: 40% to $2.40-$2.53 (Cuban lower $2.53; 45% if $2.67 breaks, 1-3 days)
60% to $3.00-$3.11 (57 EMA $2.81, 1-4 days)
Signal: NG1! at $2.852, above 57 EMA (Big Beluga $2.65). EIA +13 Bcf, short-covering, and green volume (1000-Tick) eye $3.00-$3.11 by Sep 1, but red volume (12H+) and storage push $2.53 if $2.67 breaks.
Trade: Long Hold long ($2.80-$2.844), add 20% at $2.86-$2.89 (target $3.00-$3.05, 1-4 days). Stop at $2.65.
Hedge (20%): Short if $2.67 breaks (target $2.53, 1-3 days). Stop at $2.80.
Watch price momentum. Good hunting! #NaturalGas #NG1