1.24.24 Had a request to talk about coffee.... and I use this as an example about how Useful it can be to look at the market when it's trading in boxes... and using extensions and ABCD patterns. Fibonacci extensions show you reversal points. ABCD patterns show you reversal points but can also show you targets. Coffee is a good example of this.
- The market has been trading under a bearish trend line since the beginning of 2022. However, since October of the same year, prices have slowed their decline, trading within a 62$ wide range. The trend is therefore neutral in the long term.
- Prices continue to dance within their range, having registered 2 impacts on each of the two bounds. Both moving averages...
London Mar 24 Cocoa violated its parabolic advance (linear scale) in recent weeks and was unable to trend higher. Today's decline appears to be a possible failure top roll-over similar to the chart in NY Sugar that led to a precipitous decline in Sugar during December.
Could the same type of decline occur in Cocoa? Who knows. Factor Prop Account shorted London...
In my YT Video Analysis I talked about, how OJ is at the Apex and has a high chance to fall down to the Center-Line.
On the daily chart (see the zoomed Screenshot), you see how price is struggling to get above the U-MLH.
Great signs of weakness.
But beware, OJ is super illiquid. This means that this market can get pushed in any direction, in any...
Possibly 280.00 On This One. Interesting Psychological Study To See The Correlation Between Caffeine Reliance During The Oncoming Economic Conditions. We Know Caffeine Is A Drug And Easily Addicting Substance. I’m Curious How Much Of Americans Rely On Caffeine And The Increase In Demand.
I can go very in depth on this one but I’m not obligated to
Weekly Analysis : White Sugar - Read in Sequence Point 1, 2 & 3. Long term bullish trend is still intact as market is making new highs and new lows on weekly chart. However, the current rally above 670 resistance zone in late August 2023 seems to be losing steam as there is severe distribution happening at 750 level and price will retest the crucial horizontal...
Long or short bakeout. What do you suppose. Fundamentals are mixed. Ivory coast stopped selling cocoa at the same time new crop is developing well. For me it is time funds to take profit and bring the price down for a correction.
Orang Juice has been in a Parabolic Uptrend on the larger time frame.
Trend breaks can be highly pronounced when they occur and can provide short-term contra-trend trading opportunities .
It is important to be patient and wait for their occurrence, with targets and stop-loss levels placed at the next and previous resistance levels respectively
Sugar should find a temporary bottom around here as it comes into an upward trend line of support and runs into the 200-day EMA. If it were to bounce, there is some minor resistance at the $26.48 area. Otherwise, if that were to break, sugar would likely make a run to return to the highs. Now, if the 200-day EMA and the upward trend line were to break, there would...
The coffee price is currently trading in our orange Target Zone between USX 180.40 and USX 174.65 and is making its first attempts to rise. According to our expectations, the low of the yellow wave 2 has already been reached and we expect the yellow five-part wave to continue to grow to USX 210 before the upward structure and thus also the overarching wave (b) in...
Cocoa has now risen more than 26% since the low of the magenta wave (4) and still seems to be dominated by the bulls. We now expect one last surge before the price reaches the high of the magenta wave (5), which shouldn't be too far away, completing the white wave (B). After that, the trend should be down again, starting with the magenta wave (1).
We already know that coffee beans have always been one of the most traded commodities in the world, specifically second, so why the sudden interest again?
Figure 1: Summary of World Coffee
In recent years, global consumption has increased at a higher rate than production due to pent-up demand. This rather large deficit in balance in the past two years puts...
My analysis favors cocoa shorts in the coming weeks/months for the following reasons:
The price of cocoa futures have broken ATH in a parabolic fashion
Price is approaching the 5 years R2
Seasonality is bearish in december and after february
Lower rates should favor stocks vs commodities
All agricultural commodities have retraced quite a lot after...
