RIOT: messed up EW count, but making higher high and higher lowRIOT EW count hasn't been easy. The impulses are not quite clean; the corrections are too deep for comfort. But as long as price is making higher highs and higher lows, I will stay on that direction. The concern is the overlapping impulses. Either RIOT will explode with a series of wave 3s or we have a tricky count with creative fitting of waves. Until price falls below $13.59 in the next day or 2, I can't fit a diagonal count either. I already took profit today and will hold the rest with a stop right below $13.59 and let this play out longer to see if a clearer EW count appears. Ideally, want to see price above $15.34 to somewhat confidently say we have a full 5 waves sequence.
1RIOT trade ideas
RIOT / 4hAccording to the prior analysis, NASDAQ:RIOT continued its advance with a 3% gain today, closing above the previous 4th Wave gap zone and near the midline of the thorough projected advance — all aligns with the outlook for continued upside in Minor Wave 5 of the leading diagonal, unfolding as the final leg of Intermediate Wave (1).
📈🎬 >> This price action adds conviction to the bullish scenario, indicating that the structure is maturing and approaching completion of the projected initial leg within a Primary degree uptrend. A surge above 15.34 would technically mark the completion of the leading diagonal in Intermediate Wave (1) , potentially confirming the onset of a broader bullish uptrend.
🎯 The projected advance for Minor Wave 5 stands at 72% , based on current technical analysis.
📉🎬 >> Upon completion of Minor Wave 5, the leading diagonal pattern will be firmly established as a potentially bullish structure, setting the stage for a corrective retracement in Intermediate Wave (2).
#CryptoStocks #RIOT #BTCMining #Bitcoin #BitcoinMining #BTCUSD
NASDAQ:RIOT CRYPTOCAP:BTC $BTCMining $BitcoinMining BITSTAMP:BTCUSD MARKETSCOM:BITCOIN
RIOT / 4hNASDAQ:RIOT posted a modest 1.8% gain today, maintaining its position around the midline of the projected Minor Wave 5 advance — keeping the near-term bullish structure intact .
📈 🎬 >> In line with the bullish scenario, the structure is progressing step by step toward completing the projected initial leg of a Primary-degree uptrend. A surge above 15.34 would technically validate the Leading Diagonal in Intermediate Wave (1) as a completed structure , potentially confirming the onset of a broader bullish trend. Based on current technical analysis, the projected advance for Minor Wave 5 stands at approximately 72%.
📉 🎬 >> Upon completion of Minor Wave 5, the leading diagonal pattern will be firmly established as a potentially bullish structure, setting the stage for a corrective retracement in Intermediate Wave (2).
#CryptoStocks #RIOT #BTCMining #Bitcoin #BitcoinMining #BTCUSD
NASDAQ:RIOT CRYPTOCAP:BTC $BTCMining $BitcoinMining BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
$RIOT Making Moves!NASDAQ:RIOT found support at the areas mentioned last week, the weekly pivot and 200EMA.
Wave (ii) ended at the golden pocket and High Volume node support.
Retesting the descending channel resistance upper boundary again will be the 5th test and a very high probability breakout. This would bring up the first target resistance of the wave (I) swing high and High Volume Node $20.5 followed by $40.
Weekly RSI did hit overbought but this can take months to pay play out and there is no divergence!
Analysis is invalidated below $6.33.
Safe trading
RIOT / 4hAccording to the prior analysis, NASDAQ:RIOT surged 12% intraday in an impulsive rise, closing with a 7.7% gain above the August consolidation zone — further reinforcing the outlook for continued upside in Minor Wave 5 of the leading diagonal, unfolding as the final advance of Intermediate Wave (1).
📈🎬 >> This price action adds conviction to the bullish scenario, indicating that the structure is maturing and approaching completion of the projected initial leg within a Primary degree uptrend. A surge above 15.34 would mark the completion of the leading diagonal in Intermediate Wave (1), potentially confirming the onset of a broader bullish uptrend.
🎯The projected advance for Minor Wave 5 stands at 72% , based on current technical analysis.
📉🎬 >> Upon completion of Minor Wave 5, the leading diagonal pattern will be firmly established as a potentially bullish structure, setting the stage for a corrective retracement in Intermediate Wave (2).
#CryptoStocks #RIOT #BTCMining #Bitcoin #BitcoinMining #BTCUSD
RIOT / 4hNASDAQ:RIOT surged 4.7% today, closing above the August high , and reinforcing the outlook for continued upside in Minor Wave 5 of the leading diagonal, unfolding as the final segment of Intermediate Wave (1).
This price action raises confidence in the bullish scenario, suggesting that the structure is maturing and approaching the completion of the initial leg within a broader uptrend.
🎯 Technical Target remains unchanged: 17.05
📉🎬 >> Upon completion of Minor Wave 5, the leading diagonal pattern will be firmly established as a potentially bullish structure, setting the stage for a corrective retracement in Intermediate Wave (2).
#CryptoStocks #RIOT #BTCMining #Bitcoin #BTCUSD
NASDAQ:RIOT CRYPTOCAP:BTC $BTCMining MARKETSCOM:BITCOIN $BitcoinMining
RIOT / 4hNASDAQ:RIOT continued its intraday rise, albeit modestly, reaching the midline of the projected advance before closing just below it by day's end.
📈🎬 In line with the bullish scenario, the structure is progressing step by step toward completing the projected initial leg of a Primary-degree uptrend. A surge above 15.34 would technically validate the Leading Diagonal in Intermediate Wave (1) as a completed structure, potentially confirming the onset of a broader bullish trend. Based on current technical analysis, the projected advance for Minor Wave 5 stands at approximately 72%.
📉🎬 >> Upon completion of Minor Wave 5, the leading diagonal pattern will be firmly established as a potentially bullish structure, setting the stage for a corrective retracement in Intermediate Wave (2).
#CryptoStocks #RIOT #BTCMining #Bitcoin #BitcoinMining #BTCUSD
NASDAQ:RIOT CRYPTOCAP:BTC $BTCMining $BitcoinMining BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
RIOT / 4hNASDAQ:RIOT opened precisely at the diagonal boundary line today and surged 11.78% during the initial trading session. This impulsive move reinforces the case for continued upside in Minor Wave 5 of the leading diagonal , unfolding as the final segment of Intermediate Wave (1) . The price action boosts confidence in the bullish scenario, suggesting the structure is maturing and nearing completion of the initial leg in a broader uptrend.
🎯 The Technical Target >> 17.05
📉🎬 >> Upon completion of Minor Wave 5, the leading diagonal pattern will likely be confirmed with high confidence, setting the stage for an Intermediate-degree corrective retracement in Wave (2).
#CryptoStocks #RIOT #BTCMining #Bitcoin #BTCUSD
NASDAQ:RIOT CRYPTOCAP:BTC BITSTAMP:BTCUSD MARKETSCOM:BITCOIN
RIOT: In a do or die situation again!RIOT is still trying to recover from the July 25th fall off the cliff. At the moment, the consolidation is looking rather sluggish and difficult to get a clear five moves up. The minuatte degree wave 4 is much larger than minuatte wave 2. However, minuatte wave 3 subdivision has a subminuatte wave 2 much larger than subminuatte wave 4. So, we can chalk this anomaly as an alternation of size. Right now, the focus in the last low. If $10.59 breaks down, then this wave 4 will most likely get invalidated and $15.34 will most likely be some kind of 3 wave top. It could be a leading diagonal, could be some kind of B or X wave or be a number of things. Breaking below $10.38 will be a confirmation that any hope of a wave 5 is gone. If that happens, then depending on how BTC acts for the next 3 months, we would either see a C wave up in RIOT and then a fall, or a continuation of dumpage activities back to the bottom of the channel.
Alternatively, If RIOT and BTC can manage to keep the last low intact and somehow pull themselves out from the gutter, then we can expect RIOT to challenge the 2024 highs. If RIOT can manage to do that, then the next correction will most On Friday I got back in with a very close stop loss at $10.5. Next week will be do or die for RIOT and BTC.
RIOT / 4hNASDAQ:RIOT has been consolidating since last week, holding slightly above the boundary of the potential leading diagonal. This price behaviour suggests that Minor Wave 5—the final leg of the diagonal structure and likely the concluding advance of Intermediate Wave (1)—remains in progress and appears to be approximately 50% structurally complete .
The ongoing support along the diagonal boundary line reinforces the likelihood of continued upside, strengthening the bullish scenario as the structure matures.
📉🎬 >> Upon completion of Minor Wave 5, the leading diagonal pattern would likely be confirmed with high confidence, setting the stage for an Intermediate-degree corrective retracement in Wave (2).
#CryptoStocks #RIOT #BTCMining #Bitcoin #BTCUSD
NASDAQ:RIOT CRYPTOCAP:BTC BITSTAMP:BTCUSD MARKETSCOM:BITCOIN
RIOT – Breakout Loading?RIOT is grinding higher from its $6.19 June low and is now pressing against a long-term downtrend line near $13. A clean breakout above $13.09 could open the way to $15.34 and the key $15.87 resistance. Support sits at $11.44, with the rising trendline keeping bulls in control. Watching for a volume surge to confirm the move.
RIOT / 4hNASDAQ:RIOT gained 5.7% today, reinforcing the bullish scenario outlined in prior analyses. Current price action suggests that Minor Wave 5—the final leg of a potential leading diagonal—is actively unfolding and would be approximately 50% structurally complete.
Upon completion of Minor Wave 5, the leading diagonal pattern will be highly confirmed, then followed by a same-degree corrective retracement, which would further support the bullish case for a sustained long-term uptrend.
#CryptoStocks #RIOT #BTCMining #Bitcoin #BTCUSD
NASDAQ:RIOT MARKETSCOM:BITCOIN CRYPTOCAP:BTC BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
RIOT / 4hNASDAQ:RIOT appears to be developing the first wave of a broader uptrend in the form of a Leading Diagonal in Intermediate wave (1), signaling the early stages of a larger bullish structure at Primary degree.
Within this pattern, Minor wave 5 may have begun and is poised for an impending advance of approximately 53%, which would complete the diagonal and further reinforce the long-term uptrend.
NASDAQ:RIOT CRYPTOCAP:BTC BITSTAMP:BTCUSD MARKETSCOM:BITCOIN
#CryptoStocks #RIOT #BTCMining #Bitcoin #BTC
ConsolidationRIOT is consolidating around the 50 EMA.
The last two pull backs to 50 EMA were very bullish. RIOT is also on a trendline. If RIOT breaks upward price may target the 21 EMA 12.20, If price breaks downward; price may target the 50 EMA 10.33 and possibly the 9.00 area by the Demand Zone. Please be careful, and watch out for fakeouts.
$RIOT retracement near completion?Riot appears to have completed a wave 1 and almost finished its wave 2 retracement with 1 more push lower expected.
Price is just above the daily 200EMA, golden pocket Fibonacci retracement with daily RSI approaching oversold! This are should offer strong support.
Price sitting just below the weekly pivot and 200EMA which offers additional support in this area.
Bitcoin stocks have all had a decent retracement causing me to upgrade my Elliot Wave count to a completed macro wave 1 with wave 2 now underway, suggesting the best returns are still to come over the next months for this category asset class in wave 3!
Analysis is invalidated if we go to new highs above $15.3 or lose $6.18
New long signals are certainly building in the DEMA PBR and Price Action strategies so keep an eye out on the Trade Signals Substack as we have made very good profits lately in these markets!
Safe trading
RIOT / 4hNASDAQ:RIOT appears to be developing the first wave of an anticipated advance in the form of a Leading Diagonal, suggesting the early stages of a bullish long-term structure.
A final push higher of approximately 50% in Minor degree wave 5—within this potential expanding diagonal, forming Intermediate wave (1)—may now be underway.
NASDAQ:RIOT CRYPTOCAP:BTC BITSTAMP:BTCUSD MARKETSCOM:BITCOIN
#CryptoStocks #RIOT #BTCMining #Bitcoin #BTC
RIOT: Looks pretty bad, but still has a chance to recoverBreaking down into the big bad channel maybe was the first warning of a false breakout. August first price action just made things a whole lot worse. The hope here is that RSI is tanked and has multiple pints of bullish divergence. But the bad news is, the overall price action is still a very 3 waves structure. If price falls into wave 1 territory, then it is pretty much game over. It could be a leading diagonal, or it could be another x wave to bring the price back down to the bottom of the channel yet again. BTC is also trying to maintain must keep support level. So, if next week we see a sharp recovery, then the 5 waves structure may still be intact. However, if price breaks down below $10, then best to stay out of it until things settle down. I took some profit at the top of the channel and got stopped out for most of my position for now. I will hold the rest with a stop at $9.5. If price recovers, then will ride the final wave towards $18.
Why Riot Stock Dropped After Q2 Earnings Despite Good NumbersWhen I first saw Riot Platforms' Q2 2025 earnings report, the numbers looked impressive at first glance. The company posted net income of $219.5 million, a dramatic turnaround from recent quarters. But as I dug deeper into the details, it became clear why the stock sold off despite what appeared to be strong results.
The most immediate red flag for me was the revenue miss. While Riot reported $153.0 million in revenue against the FactSet consensus of $156.3 million. Given Riot's recent track record of disappointing investors, this miss reinforced concerns about management's ability to meet their own guidance.
What really caught my attention, though, was the composition of that $219.5 million in net income. The company benefited from a massive $470 million gain on changes in Bitcoin's fair value, which was partially offset by a $158 million loss on contract settlements. This tells me that the earnings quality is questionable at best. Strip away the mark-to-market accounting gains from Bitcoin appreciation, and the underlying operational performance looks far less impressive.
I'm particularly concerned about the deteriorating unit economics in Riot's core mining business. The cost to mine each Bitcoin has essentially doubled to around $49,000 compared to $25,300 in the same quarter last year. This dramatic increase stems from the Bitcoin halving event and rising network difficulty, but it fundamentally undermines the investment thesis for Bitcoin miners. Even with Bitcoin trading at elevated levels, these higher production costs are compressing margins and eating into what should be a period of strong profitability.
In the previous quarter, Riot missed earnings estimates by over 260%, posting a net loss of $296 million. The company has now missed consensus estimates in three of the last four quarters, creating a pattern that's hard for investors to ignore. This track record of disappointing execution has clearly eroded confidence in management's ability to deliver consistent results.
In terms of hashrate, Riot only ranked #6 among public miners, after Mara, IREN, Cleanspark, Cango, and BitFuFu.
RIOT breakout soon?Looking at the TA, there’s a wedge forming over the past few days – not the cleanest setup, so mind your risk. But take a look at the option flow: I’m clearly not the only one eyeing this move. A few whales have been scooping up calls, sizeably above the usual flow.
media.discordapp.net
media.discordapp.net
RIOT / 3hThere is no specific change in NASDAQ:RIOT 's previous analysis. As depicted on the 3h frame above, it appears to be extending the third wave of an impulsive advance within Minor degree wave 3. As anticipated, a triangle correction has emerged as the fourth wave within the ongoing extension of the Minuette wave (iii).
The Fibonacci extension levels of 17.17 and 20.23 remain valid and continue to align with the current wave structure.
>>> In this timeframe, I'm analyzing the initial rising tide within the ongoing Intermediate degree wave (1), where a nested series of waves have quite well revealed: 1, 2 → i (circled), ii (circled) → (i), (ii) → i, ii. The extreme high of this impulsive sequence lies beyond the visible range of the current chart.
NASDAQ:RIOT CRYPTOCAP:BTC BITSTAMP:BTCUSD MARKETSCOM:BITCOIN
#CryptoStocks #RIOT #BTCMining #Bitcoin #BTC
RIOT: Sideways is goodRIOT has broken above a very important downward channel dating back July of 2023. It is imperative that RIOT stays above the channel. The sideways consolidation while BTC and the crypto market corrects is a pretty good sign. Next week might be more of the same, maybe a bit more down to gain the momentum back for the last leg up. If we get the final move up, it will confirm a 5 waves sequence. The target would be between 2 to 2.618 extension between $18.68 to $24.33.
On the flip side, going back inside the channel would be a sign of weakness. Going back to $11 would be a confirmation of bull run end. All will depend on how the broader crypto market performs for the next 2 weeks or so.