Russian government and corporate bonds are default.Russia is bankrupt. Russian government and corporate bonds are default.
RGBI will go up in long-termIn short-term will go down to the levels of 115-118 and after that will go up
Russian government and corporate bonds about to default.Before the war Russian reserves amounted to 630 billion USD, a conservative estimate puts them to this date @ around 500 billion USD. Every day that the war lingers on, costs russias coffers 15 to 20 billion USD. This is not considering the additional sanctions and exclusion from the banking system
Correction in Russian local sovs not yet implemented in corpsAs usual, Russian local corp bonds are less sensitive to momentum than sovs (OFZ). On price charts you can see that in spite of correction in OFZ corp index moved less. Investors should be more careful in local corps selection paying more attention to spread values.
The RGBI index still has room for falling!Technically. Immediate support on the monthly timeframe is in the 134.85-131.60 zone. The long-term uptrend has been broken. You need to be patient and wait for the exodus of investors from this asset to stop and the cycle of accumulation begins.
Fundamental. By the end of October, annual inflation
Bearish look at Bears' Bond MarketRecently foreign investors have started to enter Russian market according to data posted on 28 oct 2020. Hence there is high probability of pullback to S1 level.
However, I see limited ability of RUS bond market to recovery as many things bring uncertainty to the world.
Entrance Wedge on RGBI , the beginnig of bear marketRGBI has completed to draw wedge , that , as a rule, is first wave of new big trend.
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