The Russian stock market has crossed above its long term (since 2008) long term bearish pattern this March and is currently aiming at the 1,340 1W Resistance. There is potential that the former Lower High trend line will turn into support now. Our long term target on this market is 1,500.
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There will be no miracle. Less revenues from falling oil market will drag the index lower
as it should be around 800 already and could hit 530 when the oil would retest a multi-year low.
The correlation index for the past 12 months shows negative correlation but it is a temporary situation
as on the longer periods (20+ months) it is positive.
This will change...
With the announcement of the new and stronger sanctions against the russian industry and products the index RTS crashed and fell out of the older but positive trend channel.
Cause it has been an overreaction and so the recover started soon. The index rised back into the trend channel but stayed near to the lower limit.
Since this time it swung around the lower...
The RTSI is also among those, which got hit by the global equity slide. Now, it seems that the index had found its floor. Or is it just a temporary pit stop before it continues its traveling to the downside?
Certainly, for now, continue observing the key level of support at around 1082, where the rate is right now.
A break below that level could...
This could be an interesting trade. Either a break or bounce.
If the support line will start to break, then there is a chance to see this index moving a bit lower, towards the test of the downwards moving trendline from above.
Alternatively, a strong bounce could mean that we could wipe out the recent highs at around 1205 and move higher.
Form a triangle dictates the price to go down - to finish wave (e), followed by a rise.
However, it can turn out that the wave (c) of ((d)) will stretch and leave the upper edge of the triangle. Also, under certain circumstances, it may be impulse wave. But I consider this option as an alternative.
Jump on the bandwagon or be a contrarian and hope for a bit of retracement?
The index is not looking good at the moment. We could potentially see a bit of recovery by the end of the week, but for now, it looks like it is aiming to touch the 200 EMA on the Weekly chart.
Let's see what happens.