In-depth trading ideas
EURUSD bull case by way of $IEI support levelTalking some more about EURUSD and why I think it's about ready to have an about face and go back up, looking once more towards something that represents treasuries with maturities in the range I had shown as being useful for indicating EURUSD relationship moves.
NASDAQ:IEI represents 3 to 7 year maturity treasuries, and with the 5 year being the metric I've been using to get a feel for pending EURUSD moves, this could be useful.
The big thing I picked out is the long term support near enough to $113.50. NASDAQ:IEI has bounced off of that multiple times, dating back to last fall, even (I haven't drawn the lower trend line back that far, but you can see it--just before it broke down below that last fall).
We have descending line tracking the highs, compressing price action into this wedge. I have a feeling the lower support line holds and NASDAQ:IEI trends higher. If the underlying bond is going up in value, the yield comes back down.
With that being said, Euro's 5 year trades pretty similarly to the U.S. overall, but sometimes when you come to a juncture like this, one of them will make a larger % move. If the U.S. yield drops faster than the Euro's, EURUSD goes up. Euro yield is likely to drop in tandem with the U.S., I'm just betting it doesn't make as big of a down move, sending EURUSD up.
Long
Long | IEI | 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETFNASDAQ:IEI
* Someone is bullish on short-term BOND that leads me to these scenarios:
- Aggressive increasing interest rates during 2022 by FED.
- SHORT term Bond gain > LONG term Bond gain that means classic confirmation of Recession.
*Macro economy analysis
adjust your positions accordingly.
Long
Bonds Broke Ichimoku, Not Good For MarketsAs you can see on the chart, $IEI/$HYG has broken through the ichimoku cloud, which has not happpened for over a year. This could indicate a major pullback in all markets. I would definately keep positions small and stay very careful this week. Good Luck!
Credit SpreadsCredit spreads are starting to creep higher. Something to keep an eye on. Break into next zone would be concerning.
Credit SpreadsThey are starting to creep higher, which is bearish for equities (SPY inverted in orange). Something to keep on your screen this week.
