At the beginning of the year it passed a key level where it was at in April-May of 2018 to maybe show some sign of a bullish reversal incoming. Will be posting a comment with 4HR timeframes to see the consolidation more clearly.
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A lot of negativity surrounding bonds these days but this count might suggest that US treasuries are due a rally or something more. This count suggests that they have finished a 5 wave down and perhaps have completed an even longer correction dating back to 2008. There is some decent divergence on the RSI to support the case and that is a pretty decent candle on...
Real Rates and Gold
Another way to look at Real Rates is by looking at the difference between TIP (Treasury Inflation-Protected securities) and SHY (1-3 years Bond Yield).
When the diff. is positive you have Inflation and as you probably know, gold likes inflation.
Looking at TIP-SHY compare to Gold, each time we have divergence, gold wins … :).
A little tongue in cheek here but clearly the end of the year has been a time when people have moved OUT OF short term treasuries and into other assets or durations.
The news has been covering how short term rates are at their highest levels in years here. I'm pulling up the chart and with the great indicator "MTPC" for "Multi-Time-Period-Charts" I was able to...