The SHY ETF is an ETF that holds 1–3 Year US Treasury Bonds and as the yields have gone up this bond ETF has declined. However, in recent times it would seem that this ETF is now trying to confirm a Double Bottom with the test of the 21-week SMA, if it holds we could go p to about $85 which would put a lot of downwards pressure on the bond yields which should...
(4/10/2023) Monday - I wanted to publish this chart so we can follow the effect the credit spread had on the S&P 500 (SPX). As you can see the inverted candles correlate well with the SPX. Note the candles are inverted and the SPX is not, just to show better correlation. At the time of publishing there has been a significant move in credit that supports underlying...
We can buy Shy now. it reacted from the bearish channel and bulls came in strong.
Plus i checked that ETF because i saw a congress member buying it.
we also have a good Sl spot
looking at short term bonds over the next 3-4yrs and take the monthly dividend. From the 4th Elliott wave to the 5th, then I'll likely convert over to the 20yr treasury in 2years to try to buy the D leg of the cypher pattern on the 20yr. see charts. In this chart, notice how the price action retrace back to the 3rd wave, this movement was a very big bearish cypher...
2 yr yield usually tops out 1.5 months before FED pivots. Right now shortterm bonds (inverse of yields)
are showing bullish divergence. Historically, this may predict that the FED may halt rate hikes or become less aggressive sometime this coming November. This will be very bullish for bonds & growth stocks.
Note that as of today, the 10-yr yield is still...
Seems no one wants to discuss the Short End of the Bond Curve.
After performing a 30 Bip Sequence, the Big Move to Consolidation - the Monthly Chart
illustrates how NQ Elevator Up can resolve.
The Fed Fund Futures were dragged into 2022 for 2/2 Indicated @ 72%.
007s on the Short End, believe it's all good, these will backfill and we'll rally
30 more Bips to...
The US dollar correlates positively to US Treasuries.
Market participants needs US dollar when buying US Treasuries as investments or as collateral.
Now we see a pretty sharp diverence and break of that correlation.
One would anticiapte a return to mean of this relationship.
My base-case is that the dollar will follow bonds and get bid up.
In short, my...
If anything a short sell would have been optimal on the corner as price action may move lower as this price action appears peaked. An entry point at the next upper median line would offer good risk return because a buy stop would have structure behind the proposed entry with significant return opportunities. This would mean that short term interest rates would...
