Buy May heating Oil market. Energies are on an uptrend and there is a lot of GeoPolitical uncertainty. This is an aggressive trade. Stop will be at: 265.40, target at 289.70
Next to Cocoa, Gasoline comes in 2nd place for the best total return performance in Q1 2024 amongst commodity markets. The infamous cup and handle pattern has emerged, adding a level of upside conviction in this trade.
Fundamentals:
Severe weather developments here in the USA and geopolitical supply chain disruption have caused refiner input costs to tick up...
Dear analysts and traders,
I hope you are doing well and are motivated for the week ahead. I wish you all the success in your business endeavors. Remember that success in trading lies in consistently defining and sticking to your rules.
As someone interested in the Elliott Wave Principle, I find it to be an invaluable tool for market analysis. I have developed...
Gasoline (RBOB1!) is staging a short-term rebound towards the top of the (dotted) Channel Up ahead of a 1D Golden Cross. The 18-month pattern is a Channel Down and last time we saw those technical dynamics was during the previous Bullish Wave/ Channel Up that peaked on the 1.236 Fibonacci extension (April 12 2023) exactly on the Golden Cross and then corrected...
HO1! vs RB1! has become deviated too high compared to the historical norm. Look for the pullback to the 0.95 area. If you don't know how to do pairs trading, especially with commodities, don't do it.
Greetings
Dear analysts and traders,
I hope you are doing well and are motivated for the week ahead. I wish you all the success in your business endeavors. Remember that success in trading lies in consistently defining and sticking to your rules.
As someone interested in the Elliott Wave Principle, I find it to be an invaluable tool for market analysis. I have...
Gasoline (RB1!) has had a strong 3-day rise last week but that is still contained within the bearish barriers of a Channel Down. However during this whole pattern, the 1D RSI has been developing a Channel Up, hence a Bullish Divergence for the price.
As a result, we will look to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for a break-out signal and if the price closes a 1D...
The main assumption, that is unlikely to happen, assumes the coming wave will be proportional to the 2004-2008 rally. This is based off of the move out of 2020 being over 6 times the trough to peak percent gain during 2002-2003.
The lead in fractals and Bollinger Band behavior are similar. We are once again in an expansionary phase of real estate. General risk...
Americans could breathe a sigh of relief with gas prices set to be more affordable this year.
US gas prices hit their highest 52 Weeks in August and September ahead of Labor Day, with the national average standing at $3.82 a gallon FRED:GASREGW , per AAA Gas Prices .
Gasoline prices hit summertime levels in over a decade even as the driving season comes to a...
RBOB has witnessed significant selling since its late August highs, with looming economic growth fears and potential consumer weakness at play. However, recent jobs data paints an encouraging near-term picture for RBOB.
Recent Economic Developments:
Last week’s figures from the Atlanta Fed GDP Now model for Q4 reported a growth rate of 1.2%, falling short of...
Ever dreamt of being an oil refiner? Fret not. You can operate a virtual refinery using a combination of energy derivatives that replicates oil refiner returns.
Crude oil is the world’s most traded commodity. Oil consumption fuels the global economy. Crude is refined into gasoline and distillates.
Refining is the process of cracking crude into its usable...
**Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss.
The recommendations contained in this letter is of opinion only and
does not guarantee any profits. These are risky markets and only
risk capital should be used. Past performance is not indicative of future results**
hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of...
On the above 4-day chart price action has corrected 27% from the peak and 15% following the confirmation of the head and shoulders pattern, an expected measured move. A number of reasons now exist to expect an move up. They include:
1) RSI resistance breakout.
2) Support and resistance. Price action confirms support on past resistance.
3) Regular bullish...
Gasoline (RB1!) is on a minor pull-back on the 1D chart, below both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). The 1D RSI has been rebounding since the October 05 oversold bottom, something that has done the exact same way the previous two times on May 04 2023 and December 08 2022. Both of those fractals have (so far) similar structure...
