I think we're going to see a dip to mid $20's sometime in November before we see any movement upwards. Long term it looks like it wants to settle between $37-$40 range for a fair price. That's plotting the chart from 1987 till now. Using also a fib from 2020 to present day. They are also going to report a -$20 million dollar loss on their earnings report this...
This looks like a solid long setup here. They'll try to bring price up to the high volume node at around $62.50, which also happens to be the 50% retracement of the entire leg down.
Daily view. Nasty drop after that bear flag broke down. Looks like earnings next Wednesday. Could get a decent bounce to let some more big money out of the name.
Correcting nicely... Love the company and will be a amazing opportunity down the road. Lets follow together and enjoy the ride. Next cycle will be different.
Alcoa has dropped about 40% from its recent high of 98.00. In the past two weeks, it had dived even further.
Price seems to have created a lower high at 67.00.
It is current at very critical trendline support at 53.00. Do note that 55 is also the previous resistance back in Apr 2018.
Price to most likely consolidates between 53.00 and 67.00 for now. However,...
Log scale on the right chart, where we can identify a clear breakout to the downside.
No Armageddon, although, the stock may face some selling pressure for quite a prolonged period of time.
We have two scenarios, 1. we go straight in $42 dollar zone, or 2. we go up to $100 zone, and fall right back down in to $42 zone. One or the other way I'm going short.
This trade has a great R:R imo.
Just a couple of days ago some heavy flow came into the January $75 calls. Over $5MI in premiums.
Price is bouncing off support and showing reaction.
Stop loss can be just below support and target can be $75 / $80
Market finished 1 to 5 Elliot wave theory and we are forecasting that this is the end of an ABC correction because it is 0.382 fib zone and top of the accumulation zone.
Entry: 65
Invalidation: 53
Target: 88 (middle of the accumulation zone)
ENTRY: 88.02
SL: 79.15
TP: 98.09
- ADX<20. Would like to be higher.
- Daily RS +ve
- Daily FFI -ve
- Weekly RS +ve
- Weekly FFI +ve
- Maintaining and looks like rebounded well around pivot point "P".
- Looks like possible channel movement off the bottom
- Entry based on breakout from Swim Trading VZ and Monthly CPR today but prefer it closed above.
AA at trend resistance, seems like its trying to breakout.. if it can my targets are 94.63-101.52-108.41
a break back below the trend can send it to 80.22-69.26
- 3-4 month base build a flat channel pattern in the tight range 44-52
- first entry point occurred 12/16/2021 at 52 when AA broke out the pattern
- we missed this entry point but we waited until its first consolidation 56-64 until early February
- obviously, AA was ready to make its prime time rally on February 7-8 when getting out 64 so it was our entry point...
Background - Mar 20, 22
* 🐂
* Maybe at an oversold condition
Current Condition
* I don't see SOW 🚫 🐻
* Reactions on decreasing volume
* Coming to reaction -> re-rest at 90
What am I looking for
🐂 - high vol absorption at 90
🐂 - low vol reaction to 71 support and buy spring
🐻 - Don't see anything in the immediate future
Video Analysis cln.sh
![AA: [Chart of the Day] Alcoa, critical level](https://s3.tradingview.com/j/jLTo8rew_mid.png "[Chart of the Day] Alcoa, critical level")
