Q: What has the highest probability of occurring?
Since early July there have been 4 tests of 132.000 resistance.
There is a combination of 2 classic patterns forming at resistance.
The double top, where both tops have been rejected at 132.000, is currently valid.
The head and shoulders, the head consisting of the double top, would need to break the neckline...
This is my bearish trend idea. However, wait for a fall back to a key level after trend continue to downtrend momentum, because overall structure breakout and continue to downtrend. You can see it high time frame momentum. Good luck
Here you can see where the money from the euro area flows, among other things. Nobody talks about it and the media sell the "EU people" once again for stupid and tell corresponding fairy tales.
The high of the Euro in the third week of February marks the low of 10-year British government bonds.
The first of March low in the euro with 1.2124 marks the blue 1 high...
Bonds are holding at the minor projection at 121.72. Due to the underlying bearish momentum we expect a continuation towards the much more important targets at respectively 116.82 and 108.90. Note that this latter level is virtually equal to multiple pivots of 2013-2014.
We maintain our strong negative stance versus bonds. Only a recovery above 125<>125.20 can...
The title and the weekly chart itself tell the whole story.
I really hope for a bounce to 126.40, would be more comfortable to take this short there. But as this is probably one of the best trades for the long term supported by fundamentals too, I would not mind to sell the weekly break below 124 either.