Through this whole project of explaining my observations and theories on crash norms we've mainly looked at the more pessimistic point because we've been looking at topping and braking signals, but I did also do a lot of work on bottoming signals as well. As often as I am called a perma-bear, I put a lot of effort into finding rules to optimise "Buying the dip"....
In terms of the global macroeconomic picture, the past two weeks have been nothing short of a firestorm. Last week, the UK government announced plans for unfunded tax cuts and additional government borrowing in the ‘mini budget’. This caused a drastic reduction in market confidence. Consequently the Pound crashed to under $1.04, historically low levels against the...
We are overall at key area but just like EUR I see no fundamental reasons short/medium term on why and who would realistically going into Gilt at this moment of time. Inflation running hot, could estimated by this yr at 13-15%, recession, housing crises and last of all political instability.
Since the January of 2021, UK Gilt futures has been trending down sharply. One of the main reason why I always enjoy trading bond market is that its trend is very clear and also persistant. The price often follows a textbook style of breakouts and retracements, occurring at clear support and resistance levels. Recently, the price has made a new low and aims to...
Gilts are uk 10 year gov bonds
They usually move inverse to GBPUSD which i may chart next
This is a difficult chart cycles wise
In terms of forks the longerterm uptrend is clear and i think we get a macro upmove as shown
NO ADVICE GIVEN
We have 5 pivots on the down wave
Price is trying to break out of the 0/3/4 fork
Price is at a key level from the corona drop
Targets as shown
I'd be disappointed if it doesn't break the ATH next year
As always watch GBPUSD and US treasuries
NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE
Gilts are uk goverment 10 year fixed income
They often move inverse to GBPUSD and with the longer dates US treasuries
We have a bottom and some hidden bullish divergence
Let's see how high this goes, targets on chart
Key date is a week tomorrow when the MPC meets and the market is probably expecting a rate hike which would be a negative for gilts
Expecting a big move down on GBP and up on gilts
This would coincide with a flight to dollars and deflationary market crash
Let's see what happens
DISCLAIMER: nothing herein constitutes any form of advice; this post is for information only
Q: What has the highest probability of occurring?
Since early July there have been 4 tests of 132.000 resistance.
There is a combination of 2 classic patterns forming at resistance.
The double top, where both tops have been rejected at 132.000, is currently valid.
The head and shoulders, the head consisting of the double top, would need to break the neckline...